1 Central European Initiative (CEI) Workshop – “Economic importance of tourism and measurement of its impact in CEI member states” 17 – 18 October 2007,

1

Central European Initiative (CEI) Workshop – “Economic importance of tourism and measurement of its impact in CEI member states”

17 – 18 October 2007, Dolenjske Toplice, Slovenia

Present and future of TSA in the EU

[email protected] statistics

CEI Workshop - TSA17 – 18 October 2007

Present and future of TSA in the European Union 2

Outline of the presentation

Tourism:a fast growing economic sector

TSA implementation: state of affairs in the EU

TSA methodology: international initiatives

Eurostat activities in the field of TSA Update of the tourism statistics legislation

Two years project on TSA (2008-2009)



Growth of European tourism participationFrom 1998 to 2005, the number of long trips made has increased with 18% (aggregate based on BE, DK, DE, IE, EL, ES, FR, IT, LU, NL, AT, PT, FI, UK)

10098

105 106

109110

103

118

100

105

117

120

117

119120

123

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Evolution of total number of long holiday trips

Evolution of number of domestic long holiday trips

Evolution of number of outbound long holiday trips



Growth of European tourism participationShort holidays are the fastest growing segment of the tourism market, with slightly faster growth in domestic short breaks compared to short breaks abroad (aggregate based on BE, DK, DE, EL, ES, FR, IT, LU, PT, FI, UK)

0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Short domesticholidays

Short outbound holidays

Long outboundholidays

Long domestic holidays

1998

2005

All holidays 31%

Short holidays (1-3 nights) 47%

Long holidays (4+ nights) 18%

Domestic holidays 33%

Outbound holidays 26%

Short domestic holidays 47%

Short outbound holidays 42%

Long domestic holidays 15%

Long outbound holidays 23%

Increase of the number of trips over the period

1998-2005



Growth of nights spent in the EUThe number of tourism nights in accommodation establishments in the EU is growing faster than the overall economic activity

100

113

123121 121 121

111

115

117119

120

125

128

123

106

103101

123

108

104

102

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Nights spent in collective accommodation(residents and non-residents)GDP at constant prices



Growth of European tourism receiptsFrom 1998 to 2005, the tourism receipts have increased with 75%, compared to 57% GDP growth over the same period

100

140

160 162 162159

122

131

136

142144

157

108

121

130

167

175

105

111116

151

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Tourism receipts (Balance of Payments -travel item)GDP at current prices



TSA implementation in the EU: state of affairs

Mainly supported by ECgrants (DG ENTR):

TSA implemented in 11 Member States

Compilation work has started or is being prepared in another 6 Member States

Feasibility studies conducted in 2 Member States

No actions yet in 7 Member States (BG, EL, EE, LT, LU, RO, SK)

State of TSA I mplementation

BE TSA implemented

CZ Transnational co-operation with Hungary

DK Preparation for implementation

DE TSA implemented (Tables 1-6)

ES TSA implemented

FR TSA implemented (Not compliant with TSA RMF)

I E Compilation work has started

I T Compilation work has started

CY Compilation work has started

LV Feasibility study underway

HU Preparation for implementation

MT Feasibility Study

NL TSA implemented

AT TSA implemented

PL TSA implemented

PT TSA implemented

SI TSA implemented

FI TSA implemented (tables 1-7)

SE TSA implemented (Independent from TSA RMF methodology)

UK Compilation work has started



TSA implementation in the EU: problems

Completeness: many TSA don’t cover all tables and/or all variables

Comparability: Often not compliant with TSA methodology (TSA-RMF, EIM) Use of non-comparable and non-harmonised estimation methods

Share of the tourism sector in total GDP

3.2%

11.8%

6.7%5.4%

9.1%

2.3%3.8%

6.7%

2.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

DE (2000)

ES (2002)

FR (2002)

IT (2002)

AT (2003)

PL (2001)

SI (2000)

FI (2001)

SE (2001)



TSA methodology: international initiatives

Tourism Satellite Accounts – Recommended Methodological Framework (TSA-RMF) [2000] Jointly elaborated by UNWTO, OECD and Eurostat Under revision:

Currently on the UNWTO website for comments (until 5 Nov)

Will be submitted to the UN Statistical Committee in Feb 2008

European Implementation Manual on TSA [2002]

3 manuals on TSA elaborated by the UNWTO [2008-2009] : a producer manual, a user manual and an educators' manual

Best practices guide elaborated by Eurostat [2009] : “cookbook” for European TSA compilers (see further)



Eurostat activities in the field of TSA: update of the tourism statistics legislation

Current legal basis: Directive 95/57/EC [1995]

Capacity data (collective accommodation establishments)

Occupancy data (collective accommodation establishments)

Tourism demand data (household surveys, border surveys)

Some minor updates in the past decade:

To include changes in the tourism markets

To cover the enlarged European Union (2004 and 2006)

Major update is indispensable to be up-to-date with changing user needs and changes in the tourism market



New tourism statistics legislation: main objectives of the revision

Adapt to new or changed user needs• update list of variables • change data collection frequency• improved timeliness

Further harmonisation of variables & methods• improvement of comparability and completeness

Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA)• probably too immature to be fully included in the Regulation• But …include basic elements necessary for TSA compilation



New tourism statistics legislation: timing

Long-term project…

2005-2008: discussions in Task Forces & Working Groups

1st half of 2008: agreement at ESS level (SPC), Commission proposal to the EP and the Council

2008-2009: co-decision procedure

By end of 2009: publication of the Regulation on Tourism Statistics in the Official Journal of the EU

2010: first reference year

In the course of 2010 and 2011: first data transmission to Eurostat

Note: this is the ‘optimistic’ scenario…



New tourism statistics legislation issues with relevance for TSA

Better coverage of private accommodation

To complete the supply side information on collective accommodation with demand side estimates

Both private rental accommodation and private non-rental accommodation

More complete estimates of total visitor flows from one country into another country



Trips and nights by type of accommodation

Trips by type of accommodation

Hotels33%

Other collect. accom.

13%

Private accom.

54%

Nights by type of accommodation

Hotels28%

Other collect. accom.

13%

Private accom.

59%



New tourism statistics legislation issues with relevance for TSA (2)

Inclusion of same-day visitors

(under discussion)

Estimated to represent up to 40% of total tourism added value (domestic and inbound)

Currently not included in European tourism statistics

Estimates from the demand side (household, inbound or border surveys) are under consideration

More complete estimates of total visitor flows from one country into another country

Task Force at Eurostat in December 2007




Better coverage of data on expenditure

Information on expenditure for the individual and not for the entire travel party

Breakdown by Transport Accommodation Other

Better estimates for tourist expenditure that can be used as direct input or indirect auxiliary parameters for TSA




More detailed information about the destination

Breakdown between number or nights spent nationally and nights spent abroad on outbound trips

More comprehensive coverage of trips

All tourism trips, regardless of the length of stay, the purpose or the destination, will be part of the scope of the data collection for the forthcoming Regulation




Transmission of micro-data (demand side)

More detailed analysis will be possible

More flexibility to ad hoc user requests

Via Eurostat, NSIs will be able to exchange information with partner countries

e.g. estimates of same-day trips by residents e.g. estimates of expenditure by residents

Limitations: EU demand side statistics do not capture inbound tourism trips by non EU residents, but …



… a dominating position of intra-EU tourism

Nights spent in collective accommodation in the EU - 2005(share of residents, share of other EU Member States’ residents, share of non-EU residents) - 2005

Other EU residents31,3%

Non EU residents9,3%

Residents of the Member State

59,3%

Holiday trips (4 nights or more) by EU residents - 2005(share of domestic holiday trips, holiday trips within the European Union and holiday trips outside the European Union) - 2005

Domestic holiday trips59%

Holiday tripsoutside the EU

13%

Holiday trips to other EU Member States

28%



Eurostat’s TSA project (2008-2009) objectives

Focal points:

Comparative assessment of the methodologies applied and of the results achieved

Collection and exchange of best practices in compiling Tourism Satellite Accounts

Direct methodological support for the Member States

Identification of key TSA figures



Eurostat’s TSA project (2008-2009) objectives (2)

Actions:

1. Assessment of the state of the art concerning the implementation of TSA in the Member States of the EU

Stock-taking of the work done

Assessment of the methodologies used and of their compliance with the international standards in terms of comparability and completeness

Problems encountered, possible obstacles to start the work, …

2. Directory of best practices which are relevant for other countries compiling TSAs, focusing on

Best use of existing statistical sources in the Member States

Estimation methods for missing data



Eurostat’s TSA project (2008-2009) objectives (3)

Actions (continued):

3. Organization of the exchange of best practices and experience in compiling TSA

Individual consultancy missions

Multi-country workshops

4. Development of key figures for an intermediate update of basic TSA information

Provide information on the evolution of the tourism sector in

the various Member States in those intermediate periods for

which a comprehensive TSA is not being compiled



Eurostat’s TSA project (2008-2009) timetable

Phase 1: Jan 2008 – Oct 2008

– Country-specific progress reports [May 2008]

– Comparative analysis report on TSA implementation in the EU Member States [June 2008]

– Draft best practices guide [June 2008]

– Workshop [Sep/Oct 2008]



Eurostat’s TSA project (2008-2009) timetable (2)

Phase 2: Oct 2008 - Aug 2008

– Technical assistance missions [Oct 2008 – March 2009]

– Best practices guide [May 2009]

– 2nd workshop [June/July 2009]

– Key TSA figures report [May 2009]



Further information

Contact Eurostat Unit F6 - Information Society and Tourism Statistics

Christophe Demunter (@ec.europa.eu)

Ulrich Spörel (@ec.europa.eu) – TSA project

Data All data is available on the Eurostat website, including

estimates of employment in tourism (from LFS) – http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Dedicated section on Tourism Statistics – http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/url/page/PGP_DS_TOURISM/PGE_DS_TOURISM_01

1 Central European Initiative (CEI) Workshop – “Economic importance of tourism and measurement of its impact in CEI member states” 17 – 18 October 2007,

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