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LANDRICO U. DALIDA JR., PhDRegional Director
Southern Luzon PAGASA Regional Services Division
Climate Change Academy, Legazpi City, Albay2013
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The Intergovernmental Panel on CC
4th
Assessment Report 2007 (AR4):
Warming of the Climate System
is UNEQUIVOCAL!
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- an increasein the earth'stemperature due to the use of fossil fuelsand certain industrial and agriculturalprocesses leading to a buildup of greenhousegases
(principally carbon dioxide, methane,nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and water
vapor) in the atmosphere, which in turncauses changes in climate.
"Global Warming," Microsoft Encarta Encyclopedia 2000. 1993-1999Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.
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Greenhouse ffect
-is the rise in temperature thatthe Earth experiences becausecertain gases in the atmosphere
trap energyfrom the Sun .
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Incoming Radiation
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GHGs are gaseous constituents, both natural and man-
made, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation and
has the ability to trap heat at the Earth
s surface.
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What is Global Warming?
Earth has warmed by about 0.7 C over the past
100 years. But why? And how?
Earth could be getting warmer due to naturalcauses
World's leading climate scientists think that
warming is due to human activities
Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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What is Global Warming?
Increase in long term average globalsurface temperature
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What is Global Warming?
Nine of last ten years from 19962005 except 1996 rank
among the warmest in global instrumental record
obtained since 1861
Warmest year in entire record remains 1998,
which was enhanced by 19971998 El Nio
2nd, 3rd and 4th warmest years were 2002, 2003, and
2004, respectively
Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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What is Global Warming?
Recent warming due to increase in GHGs
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxides
CFCs and HCFCs
Ozone
Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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What is Global Warming?
Polar ice core data show that current levels of atmospheric
CO2, CH4 and N2O are way above levels in more than
650,000years records
Small variations in CO2 concentrations observed between
end of last ice age and start of industrial era around 1750
are attributed to natural processes
Atmospheric CO2 increased by 20 ppm over 8,000 yearsprior to industrialization while its concentration has risen by
over 110ppm since 1750.
Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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Power generation Wastes Livestock
Land use change Agriculture Deforestation
Sources of Carbon Dioxide
Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rodel Lasco, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC experts
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What is Global Warming?
Without greenhouse effect earths temperature will be
30deg cooler and is not habitable
Problem is rapid rise of GHGsin atmosphere well above
natural levels due to human-induced emission of CO2,
methane, CFCsand its replacements
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What isClimate Change
refers to a change of climateattributed directly or indirectly tohuman activity in addition tonatural climate
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Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656
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Evidence points to an increase in temperature over the last 140 years
The upper graph shows the steady increase of global surface temperature from 1860.
Global annual
surface
temperature
has increased
steadily since
1861
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Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
0.947774998
y = 0.0062x - 0.1747
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Year
TemperatureAnomaly(C)
Anomaly
5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
An increase of 0.3472
Cfrom 1951-2006
Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656
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Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
y = 0.0159x - 0.3266
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Year
TemperatureAnomaly(C)
Anomaly
5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
An increase of 0.8904
Cfrom 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times
increase in maximum temperatures
Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656
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Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean
y = -0.0104x + 19.755
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
Frequencyoftrop
icalCyclones
Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)
Average of 19to 20tropical cyclones per year:no trends in number of occurrences in the PAR
Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656
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Hot indices (hot days and warm nights)
*Tibi g, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extr eme daily temperatures and 24-hr rain fall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.
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Rainfall (wet indices)
RAIN DAYSTOTAL
RAINFALL
*Tibi g, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extr eme daily temperatures and 24-hr rain fal l in the Phil . CAB Techni cal Report, PAGASA
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(Sources: GRIDArendal/ Pachauri,2003)
With bearing oneconomy
Climate ChangeImpacts
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Food security
o Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and
crops
o Availability of foodcould decline;
o Prices will riseas a result;
o Employment opportunities may become less;
o More people could face hungerand starvation
Impacts on Agriculture
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Impact on Livestock
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
A temperature rise exceeding about 3.5
C could
result in the extinction of 40-70% of the world's
assessed species.
Stunted growth, lesser productivity and reducedfertility.
Swine and poultry could be exposed to higher
incidences of heat stress, thus influencing
productivity Increase in disease transmission by faster growth
rates of pathogens in the environment and more
efficient and abundant vectors (such as insects).
Low food quality and easily spoiled in storage.
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Dramatic change in distribution and
quantities of fish and sea foods.
Coral bleaching on massive scales never seen beforedue to warming of sea water associated with El Nio
episodes.
Decreased calcification in corals, mollusks and other
shell-forming organisms (softening of shells). Trigger algal blooms that cause red tides as well as
fish kills.
Release of methane hydrate in ocean bottoms which
is 56 times more powerful than CO2.
Impact on Fisheries
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
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Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems
Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees Ccould cause
Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification
Massive coral bleaching in 1998
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Could exacerbate water scarcity
Streamflow
Increase average annual runoff and water availabilityin some wet areas by 10-40%
Source: photo Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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Could exacerbate water scarcity
Exacerbates water pollution (thermal, bacterial, organic,
nitrates, organic carbon)Source: Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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Could exacerbate water scarcity
Source: Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert
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Impact on Fresh Water
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
Salination of freshwater; water
table/aquifer depletion; increased runoff
and pollution of freshwater sources.
Alter the quantity and quality of available
fresh water and increase the frequency
and duration of floods, droughts, and
heavy precipitation events.Affect the quality of drinking water and
impact public health.
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Could diminish Forest cover
Temperature increases and change in rainfall could lead to
oShrinking or expansion of forest cover
oMigration to higher elevationoForest loss due to fires and pests
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Preserve existing forests andencourage reforestation
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Slow population growth
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Encourage environmental
treaties/laws
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More efficient energy use
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Necessity for a change in lifestyle
Promote cycling, walkingTake a bus or the mass rail transport
for longer trips
Leave the car at home
Turn offs lights, aircons, electric fans, televisions
and computers when these are not in use
Use energy efficient electrical fixtures
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CLIM TE CH NGE
IN THE
PHILIPPINES
http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The climate trends were analyzed using available observed data from 1951 to 2009 with the average
for the period of 1971 2000as the reference value.
The key findings are summarized as follows:
There has been an increase in annual mean temperature by 0.57 C;
In terms of maximum and minimum temperatures, the increases have been
0.35 C and 0.94 C;
Tropical cyclone (within PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical
cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year , there still is no indication of
increase in the frequency, but with a very slight increase in the number of
tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and
above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El Nino years; and
Extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily rainfall indicate
significant increase in number of hot days but decrease of cool nights, and
those of rainfall (extreme rainfall intensity and frequency) are not clear, both
in magnitude (by what amounts) and direction (whether increasing or
decreasing), with very little spatial coherence.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
For future climates in 2020 and 2050
The key findings are:
All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the
relatively warmer summer months;
Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and
minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country are expected to
rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in2050;
Seasonal rainfall change:
reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer
season (MAM) making the usually dry season drier,
while rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and
Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA) and the SON
seasons, making these seasons still wetter,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The northeast monsoon (DJF) season rainfall is projected to
increase, particularly for areas characterized by Type II climatewith potential for flooding enhanced;
During the southwest monsoon season (JJA), larger increases
in rainfall is expected in provinces in Luzon (0.9% to 63%) and
Visayas (2% to 22%) but generally decreasing trends in most of theprovinces in Mindanao in 2050;
However, projections for extreme events in 2020 and 2050
show that hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days withmaximum temperature exceeding 35 C) will continue to become
more frequent, number of dry days (days with less than 2.5mm of
rain) will increase in all parts of the country and heavy daily
rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will also continue to increase in
number in Luzon and Visayas.
How the climate change scenarios were developed?
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How the climate change scenarios were developed?
As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models
(UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating
the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from
simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known asCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They
also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically
estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers
wide. It should be noted that CMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each
grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid.
Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such
as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES
(Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These mission scenarios cover a
range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimesreferred to as emission pathways .
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Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which
then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or
cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect thefuture climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its Plausible ranges
A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity
to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in
international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), theNational Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
(in Germany), the
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological
Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others.These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new
versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in
models.
Th li t l ifi ti i th Phili i
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The climate classification in the Philippines
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- REGION I
- REGION II
- REGION III
- REGION IV-A
- REGION IV-B
- REGION V
- REGION VI
- REGION VII
- REGION VIII
- REGION IX
- REGION X
- REGION XI
- REGION XII
- REGION XIII
- ARMM
- CAR
- NCR
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Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region 2
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j gThe projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of
extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in
Region 2 are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively.
To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in
2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values(presented in each of the tables).
Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in CARThe projected seasonal temperature increase seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in
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The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in
2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in CAR are presented in Table a,
Table b and Table c, respectively.
To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050
in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables).
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Legaspi website - prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/ Legaspi Stn (052)-820-6126 / 4814471/
4814454 / 4355702
Voice Server : 433-ULAN (433-8526) Predict: http://fmon.asti.dost.gov.ph/weather/predict/
Project NOAH
http://202.90.128.12/predict/stations.php
Weather Forecasting Center (Manila) - 927-1541;926-4259; 928-2031; 926-4258; 926-7695
CONT CT US
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