1 California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues Pat Perez, Manager ([email protected]) Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand Office CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 6th California State Fleet Management Conference October 31, 2001 Double Tree Hotel - Sacramento
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1 California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues Pat Perez, Manager ([email protected]) Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand.
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California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook
& Issues
Pat Perez, Manager ([email protected])Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand Office
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
6th California State Fleet Management Conference
October 31, 2001
Double Tree Hotel - Sacramento
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Presentation Topics
Consumption of Transportation FuelsProduction of Transportation FuelsMajor Challenges Facing the MarketState Policies and Programs
A somewhat slowing, but continuing de-bottlenecking” of existing processes
Growth in imports of finished products and blending components
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Major Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel
Market
International Events and World Economy
Uncertainty surrounding the phase-out of MTBE and introduction of ethanol
Changing fuel specifications including Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel
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World Events and World Economy
Supply and Price of Oil will continue to react to International Events
A world-wide recovery or continued recession will directly impact the California transportation fuel market through the price of oil, impacts on the local economy, and price of gasoline
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Gasoline Price Volatility
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Uncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use
of Ethanol in Gasoline
Cost ImpactsSupply ConcernsEthanol Logistics
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California Ethanol Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Past Present Future A Future B
Million Gallons per Year
Past: 1980s - 1990s maximum
Present: mid-2001Futures :
A- 6% in most (70%) CA gasoline by 2003
B- 6% in all CA gasoline by 2003
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State Policies, Programs and Activities
Reports (recent) Costs and Benefits of Biomass-to-
Ethanol Industry Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Study MTBE Phase-out Quarterly Report USA Ethanol Survey
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State Policies, Programs and Activities
Reports (forthcoming) Joint CEC-ARB Study: Strategies to
Reduce Petroleum Dependency (AB 2076)
Strategic Fuel Reserve Feasibility Study (AB 2076)
Gulf-Coast to California Pipeline Feasibility Study (AB 2098)
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State Policies, Programs and Activities
Transportation Technology Programs Green Star Vehicle Program (Up to
$3,000 per vehicle) Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure
($2.5 million) Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program
(Up to $750 with another $750 in matching dealer incentives)
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Conclusions
Consumption will grow more than our ability to produce petroleum products in-state
Imports of petroleum products and gasoline blending components will rise