1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com POLL10 @ssrs_research | 484.840.4300 | www.ssrs.com | 1 OVERVIEW The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from September 5-9, 2019 among a sample of 1,639 respondents, including oversamples of 307 black, non-Hispanic registered voters and 293 Hispanic/Latino registered voters. Oversamples have been weighted to represent their proper share of the adult population. The landline total respondents were 588 and there were 1,051 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 3.2 at the 95% confidence level. The design effect is 1.72. More information about SSRS can be obtained by visiting www.ssrs.com. Question text noted in parentheses was rotated or randomized. Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the March 31-April 2, 2006 survey and ending with the April 22-25, 2017 survey are from surveys conducted by ORC International. Results before March 31, 2006 are from surveys conducted by Gallup. NOTE ABOUT CROSSTABS Interviews were conducted among a representative sample of the adult population, age 18 or older, of the United States. Members of demographic groups not shown in the published crosstabs are represented in the results for each question in the poll. Crosstabs on the pages that follow only include results for subgroups with a minimum n=125 unweighted cases. Results for subgroups with fewer than n=125 unweighted cases are not displayed and instead are denoted with "SN" because samples of that size carry larger margins of sampling error and can be too small to be projectable with confidence to their true values in the population. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, September 11 at 4:00 p.m.
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OVERVIEW The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from September 5-9, 2019 among a sample of 1,639 respondents, including oversamples of 307 black, non-Hispanic registered voters and 293 Hispanic/Latino registered voters. Oversamples have been weighted to represent their proper share of the adult population. The landline total respondents were 588 and there were 1,051 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 3.2 at the 95% confidence level. The design effect is 1.72. More information about SSRS can be obtained by visiting www.ssrs.com. Question text noted in parentheses was rotated or randomized. Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the March 31-April 2, 2006 survey and ending with the April 22-25, 2017 survey are from surveys conducted by ORC International. Results before March 31, 2006 are from surveys conducted by Gallup.
NOTE ABOUT CROSSTABS Interviews were conducted among a representative sample of the adult population, age 18 or older, of the United States. Members of demographic groups not shown in the published crosstabs are represented in the results for each question in the poll. Crosstabs on the pages that follow only include results for subgroups with a minimum n=125 unweighted cases. Results for subgroups with fewer than n=125 unweighted cases are not displayed and instead are denoted with "SN" because samples of that size carry larger margins of sampling error and can be too small to be projectable with confidence to their true values in the population.
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, September 11 at 4:00 p.m.
P9. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election -- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
Total Respondents Extremely
enthusiastic Very
enthusiastic Somewhat
enthusiastic Not too
enthusiastic Not at all
enthusiastic No opinion
September 5-9, 2019 39% 26% 16% 7% 9% 3%
June 28-30, 2019 39% 25% 18% 7% 9% 2%
May 28-31, 2019 38% 29% 15% 7% 11% 1% April 25-28, 2019 41% 29% 15% 6% 7% 1%
^QUESTION WORDING for trends may reference “next year’s election” or “this year’s election” depending on the year of the poll (FURTHER TRENDS ON NEXT PAGE)
P9. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election -- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? (CONTINUED)
Registered Voters Extremely
enthusiastic Very
enthusiastic Somewhat
enthusiastic Not too
enthusiastic Not at all
enthusiastic No opinion
September 5-9, 2019 45% 26% 15% 7% 6% 1%
June 28-30, 2019 42% 28% 17% 6% 6% 1% May 28-31, 2019 41% 30% 13% 7% 8% 1%
April 25-28, 2019 45% 29% 15% 5% 5% *
March 14-17, 2019 43% 25% 16% 7% 7% 2%
October 20-23, 2016^ 26% 20% 18% 14% 22% *
Sept 28-Oct 02, 2016 24% 23% 17% 15% 21% *
September 01-04, 2016 27% 19% 18% 14% 22% * July 29-31, 2016 24% 20% 23% 15% 18% *
July 13-16, 2016 20% 20% 19% 17% 23% *
February 24-27, 2016 25% 27% 19% 13% 16% *
January 21-24, 2016 32% 24% 21% 13% 9% *
September 17-19, 2015 31% 24% 24% 10% 10% 1%
September 04-08, 2015 30% 24% 25% 10% 12% * August 13-16, 2015 29% 27% 23% 10% 10% *
July 22-25, 2015 22% 26% 27% 13% 11% *
November 02-04, 2012 38% 30% 17% 9% 5% 1%
September 28-30, 2012 37% 25% 20% 9% 9% *
September 07-09, 2012 30% 27% 22% 15% 6% *
Aug. 31-Sep. 03, 2012 32% 25% 20% 11% 11% * August 22-23, 2012 31% 27% 23% 10% 9% 1%
June 28 - July 01, 2012 28% 25% 25% 13% 9% *
March 24-25, 2012 24% 23% 29% 11% 12% *
February 10-13, 2012 22% 26% 26% 13% 13% *
January 11-12, 2012 24% 27% 27% 10% 12% *
October 14-16, 2011 28% 23% 28% 9% 12% * June 03-07, 2011 29% 25% 25% 10% 10% 1%
March 11-13, 2011 28% 30% 24% 11% 7% *
Oct. 30 - Nov. 01, 2008 37% 32% 16% 7% 8% *
October 17-19, 2008 34% 24% 23% 11% 8% *
September 05-07, 2008 30% 30% 23% 11% 6% * June 23-24, 2007 26% 28% 27% 13% 6% *
October 14-16, 2004 36% 34% 17% 8% 4% 1%
September 03-05, 2004 32% 32% 23% 9% 4% *
October 24-26, 2003 19% 34% 31% 11% 4% 1%
^QUESTION WORDING for trends may reference “next year’s election” or “this year’s election” depending on the year of the poll
(Respondents who are registered to vote, N=1,526) Q8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year? [ITEMS READ IN RANDOM ORDER]
(Respondents who are registered to vote, N=1,526) Q8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year? [ITEMS READ IN RANDOM ORDER] (CONTINUED)
(Respondents who are registered to vote, N=1,526) Q8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year? [ITEMS READ IN RANDOM ORDER] (CONTINUED)
November 2-4, 2007 20% 26% 29% 26% * May 4-6, 2007 26% 26% 29% 17% 2%
^QUESTION WORDING for trends may be “to your vote for President” or “to your vote for President for next year” depending on the year of the poll * Asked of half sample
Immigration Extremely important
Very important Moderately important
Not that important
No opinion
September 5-9, 2019 (RV) 43% 34% 19% 4% 1%
^QUESTION WORDING for trends may be “to your vote for President” or “to your vote for President for next year” depending on the year of the poll
(Respondents who are registered to vote, N=1,526) Q8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year? [ITEMS READ IN RANDOM ORDER] (CONTINUED)
June 26-28, 2015 (RV) 44% 39% 13% 4% * February 12-15, 2015 39% 40% 16% 5% *
February 12-15, 2015 (RV) 41% 39% 17% 4% *
November 2-4, 2012 (RV) 49% 33% 14% 3% *
June 28-July 1, 2012 47% 40% 10% 3% *
October 14-16, 2011 42% 38% 16% 3% *
June 3-7, 2011 45% 41% 10% 3% * October 17-19, 2008 44% 38% 13% 4% *
June 26-29, 2008 47% 36% 14% 3% *
January 14-17, 2008 41% 36% 19% 4% *
November 2-4, 2007 35% 41% 19% 5% *
May 4-6, 2007 43% 35% 18% 4% *
^QUESTION WORDING for trends may be “to your vote for President” or “to your vote for President for next year” depending on the year of the poll
Trade with other countries Extremely important
Very important Moderately important
Not that important
No opinion
September 5-9, 2019 (RV) 29% 37% 29% 4% 1%
October 20-23, 2016 (RV) 34% 33% 28% 4% * ^QUESTION WORDING for trends may be “to your vote for President” or “to your vote for President for next year” depending on the year of the poll
(Respondents who are registered to vote, N=1,526) Q8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year? [ITEMS READ IN RANDOM ORDER] (CONTINUED)
^QUESTION WORDING for trends may be “to your vote for President” or “to your vote for President for next year” depending on the year of the poll
CNN/ORC TRENDS FOR COMPARISON
Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Not that important
No opinion
Global warming 2015 Sep 4-8* (RV) 23% 24% 30% 23% * 2015 Feb 12-15 22% 23% 26% 29% * 2015 Feb 12-15 (RV) 23% 21% 26% 30% * 2007 Nov 2-4 19% 29% 27% 25% * QUESTION WORDING: How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year -- will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? *Asked of half sample
(Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents who are registered to vote, N=908) DP1. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. [NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER]
Sept. 5-9, 2019
(RV) Aug. 15-18, 2019
(RV) June 28-30, 2019
(RV) May 28-31, 2019
(RV)
Former Vice President Joe Biden 24% 29% 22% 32%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 18% 14% 15% 7%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 17% 15% 14% 18%
California Senator Kamala Harris 8% 5% 17% 8%
South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 6% 5% 4% 5%
Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 5% 3% 3% 5% New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 2% 2% 3% 3%
Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard 2% 2% 1% 1%
Businessman Andrew Yang 2% 1% 1% 1%
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet 1% 0% * 1%
Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro
1% 2% 1% 2%
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio 1% * 1% *
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 1% 1% 2% 2%
Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan 1% 1% * 1%
Businessman Tom Steyer 1% 1% N/A N/A
Author Marianne Williamson 1% 0% * *
Montana Governor Steve Bullock * 1% 0% 0%
Former Maryland Congressman John Delaney * 0% * *
Former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak * 0% N/A N/A
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand N/A * * 1%
Washington Governor Jay Inslee N/A 0% * 1%
Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton N/A * * 0%
Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper N/A N/A * * California Congressman Eric Swalwell N/A N/A * 0%
Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam N/A N/A 0% 0%
Former Secretary of State John Kerry N/A N/A N/A N/A
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe N/A N/A N/A N/A
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg N/A N/A N/A N/A
Former Attorney General Eric Holder N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown N/A N/A N/A N/A
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti N/A N/A N/A N/A
Attorney Michael Avenatti N/A N/A N/A N/A
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick N/A N/A N/A N/A
Someone else (vol.) 1% 2% 2% 2%
None/No one (vol.) 3% 7% 4% 2%
No opinion 6% 10% 9% 8%
*In March 2019 and earlier, this question was asked of all Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents; numbers shown here reflect results among registered voters only. Full results available here: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/03/19/rel4b.-.2020.pdf (FURTHER TRENDS ON NEXT PAGE)
DP1. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. [NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER] (CONTINUED)
Apr 25-28, 2019
(RV) Mar 14-17, 2019
(RV) Dec 06-09, 2018
(RV) Oct 04-07, 2018
(RV)
Former Vice President Joe Biden 39% 28% 33% 33%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 8% 7% 4% 9%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 15% 19% 14% 14%
California Senator Kamala Harris 5% 12% 4% 10%
South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 7% 1% N/A N/A
Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 6% 13% 9% 7%
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 2% 2% 6% 5%
Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard 2% * N/A N/A
Businessman Andrew Yang 1% N/A N/A N/A Colorado Senator Michael Bennet 0% N/A N/A N/A
Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro
1% * * N/A
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio * N/A N/A N/A
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 2% 3% 3% 1%
Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan * N/A N/A N/A
Businessman Tom Steyer N/A N/A 0% N/A
Author Marianne Williamson 1% N/A N/A N/A
Montana Governor Steve Bullock 0% 0% 1% 0%
Former Maryland Congressman John Delaney 0% * 0% 0%
Former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak N/A N/A N/A N/A
California Congressman Eric Swalwell 1% N/A N/A N/A
Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam 0% N/A N/A N/A
Former Secretary of State John Kerry N/A 3% 3% 4%
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe N/A * 1% N/A Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg N/A N/A 2% 3%
Former Attorney General Eric Holder N/A N/A 1% 4%
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown N/A N/A 2% N/A
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti N/A N/A * 1%
Attorney Michael Avenatti N/A N/A N/A 1%
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick N/A N/A N/A 2%
Someone else (vol.) * 2% 1% 2%
None/No one (vol.) 3% 1% 8% 1%
No opinion 7% 3% 7% 5%
*In March 2019 and earlier, this question was asked of all Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents; numbers shown here reflect results among registered voters only. Full results available here: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/03/19/rel4b.-.2020.pdf
(Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents who are registered to vote, N=908) Q9a. Which is more important to you personally [RESPONSES ROTATED]:
That the Democratic Party nominate a
presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald
Trump
That the Democratic Party nominate a
presidential candidate who
shares your positions on major issues
Both equally important (vol.)
No opinion
September 5-9, 2019 55% 39% 4% 2%
August 15-18, 2019 54% 39% 4% 2%
June 28-30, 2019 61% 30% 7% 2%
March 14-17, 2019 58% 33% 5% 4% *In March 2019, this question was asked of all Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents; numbers shown here reflect results among registered voters only. Full results available here: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/03/19/rel4b.-.2020.pdf (Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents who are registered to vote, N=908) Q9b. Which of the following concerns you more [RESPONSES ROTATED]:
That the Democratic Party
will nominate a presidential candidate whose positions on the
(Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, N=536) Q10. Do you think the Republican party should re-nominate Donald Trump as the party's candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? [RESPONSES ROTATED]
Re-nominate Trump Different candidate No opinion
September 5-9, 2019 77% 20% 3%
March 14-17, 2019 76% 19% 5% October 04-07, 2018 74% 21% 5%
March 22-25, 2018 75% 20% 4%
CNN/TIME TRENDS FOR COMPARISON
Re-nominate Candidate Different candidate No opinion
Obama 2010 Mar 19-21** 76% 20% 4% Clinton 1994 Nov 9-10*** 57% 32% 11% **QUESTION WORDING: Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012? ***QUESTION WORDING: Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Bill Clinton as the party’s candidate in 1996 or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for President in 1996.
MORE ON METHODOLOGY A total of 1,639 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 31% described themselves as Democrats, 25% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. For the sample of 1,526 registered voters it is +/- 3.2 percentage points. For the subset of 908 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are registered to vote, it is +/- 4.3 percentage points. For the subset of 693 white non-Hispanic adults, it is +/- 4.3 percentage points. For the subset of 431 black non-Hispanic adults, it is +/- 7.3 percentage points. For the subset of 387 Hispanic/Latino adults, it is +/- 7.3 percentage points. Interviews were conducted among a representative sample of the adult population, age 18 or older, of the United States. Members of demographic groups not shown in the published crosstabs are represented in the results for each question in the poll. Crosstabs on the pages that follow only include results for subgroups with a minimum n=125 unweighted cases. Results for subgroups with fewer than n=125 unweighted cases are not displayed and instead are denoted with "SN" because samples of that size carry larger margins of sampling error and can be too small to be projectable with confidence to their true values in the population.