HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DESIGN STUDIES CENTER QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT 1 April to 30 June 2018 Office of Water Prediction National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Department of Commerce Silver Spring, Maryland July 2018
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DESIGN STUDIES CENTER
QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT
1 April to 30 June 2018
Office of Water Prediction
National Weather Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
Silver Spring, Maryland
July 2018
Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center Quarterly Progress Report, July 2018
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DISCLAIMER
The data and information presented in this report are provided only to demonstrate current
progress on the various tasks associated with these projects. Values presented herein are NOT
intended for any other use beyond the scope of this progress report. Anyone using any data or
information presented in this report for any other purpose does so at their own risk.
Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center Quarterly Progress Report, July 2018
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 4
II. CURRENT PROJECTS ........................................................................................................................... 5
1. NOAA ATLAS 14 VOLUME 10: NORTHEASTERN STATES ......................................................... 5
3. ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF NON-STATIONARY CLIMATE ON PRECIPITATION
FREQUENCY ESTIMATES ............................................................................................................. 10
III. OTHER .................................................................................................................................................. 11
1. FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF RECENT HISTORICAL STORM EVENT ........................................ 11
1.1. ELLICOTT CITY, MARYLAND – 27 MAY 2018 ........................................................................ 11
1.2. MICHIGAN AND WINSCONSIN, 14-18 JUNE 2018 ............................................................... 12
2. RECENT MEETINGS AND CONFERENCES ................................................................................. 15
Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center Quarterly Progress Report, July 2018
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I. INTRODUCTION
The Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center (HDSC) within the Office of Water
Prediction (OWP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National
Weather Service (NWS) has been updating precipitation frequency estimates for various parts
of the United States and affiliated territories. Updated precipitation frequency estimates,
accompanied by additional relevant information, are published in NOAA Atlas 14. All NOAA
Atlas 14 products and documents are available for download from the Precipitation Frequency
Data Server (PFDS).
NOAA Atlas 14 is divided into volumes based on geographic sections of the country and
affiliated territories. Figure 1 shows the states or territories associated with each of the Volumes
of the Atlas. To date, we have updated precipitation frequency estimates for AZ, NV, NM, UT
(Volume 1, 2004), DC, DE, IL, IN, KY, MD, NC, NJ, OH, PA, SC, TN, VA, WV (Volume 2, 2004),
PR and U.S. Virgin Islands (Volume 3, 2006), HI (Volume 4, 2009), Selected Pacific Islands
(Volume 5, 2009), CA (Volume 6, 2011), AK (Volume 7, 2011), CO, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, ND,
NE, OK, SD, WI (Volume 8, 2013), AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS (Volume 9, 2013), and CT, MA, ME,
NH, NY, RI, VT (Volume 10, 2015). Since May 2015, HDSC has been working on updating
precipitation frequency estimates for the state of Texas. We expect to publish them in late 2018
in NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 11. OWP continues to work with FHWA and several Northwestern
state agencies on securing funding to extend NOAA Atlas 14 coverage to the remaining five
northwestern states: ID, MT, OR, WA, WY in Volume 12. For any inquiries regarding the status
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Figure 4. Annual exceedance probabilities for the worst case 6-hour rainfall during the Michigan
and Wisconsin event.
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Figure 5. Annual exceedance probabilities for the worst case 24-hour rainfall during the
Michigan and Wisconsin event.
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Figure 6. Annual exceedance probabilities for the worst case 72-hour rainfall during the
Michigan and Wisconsin event.
2. RECENT MEETINGS AND CONFERENCES
HDSC group member Sandra Pavlovic gave a workshop presentation titled “NOAA Atlas 14: Precipitation Frequency Estimates of the United States” at the EWRI’s World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, in Minneapolis, MN Jun 3-7, 2018.