1 Analyzing Montana’s Indian Reservations’ Economies Susan Ockert Senior Research Economist, Census and Economic Information Center, Montana Department of Commerce
Dec 17, 2015
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Analyzing Montana’s Indian Reservations’ Economies
Susan OckertSenior Research Economist,
Census and Economic Information Center, Montana Department of Commerce
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Outline Census Data What is an Economy? Measuring Reservation Economies Determining Potential Sources for Statistics
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Population Numbers U.S. Census Bureau
Every 10 years on April 1 Self-reported Residence within Census boundaries
Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Three year average Service population
Institutional population may not be in area
Tribal Tribal members Annual
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Why Census?Federal programs rely on census data for funding Indian Child Welfare Act
Child and Family Services Programs Families by race and age distribution
Title 6 – Grants to Indian Tribes Programs for Aging Age distribution by race
Indian Community Development Block Grants Housing and economic opportunities for low and moderate
income Income/poverty data
Indian Employment Assistance Vocational training and employment opportunities Employment/Occupation by race
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Census 2010Pilot project in South Dakota Work directly with tribes Door-to-door visits by trained resident
enumerators rather than mailed forms Publicity campaigns: census data confidential so
can not be used against individual Use of hand-held electronic devices to identify
exact location of house Visit all rural areas on reservation
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Sanders
Flathead
Lake
Missoula
Glacier
Pondera
Hill Blaine
PhillipsValley
Roosevelt
SheridanDaniels
Big Horn
Rosebud
Yellowstone
Chouteau
BLACKFEET
Population 10,100
Unemployment 22.6%
Per Capita Income $9,751
Poverty 30.0%
Median Age 26.5
BA+ 13.5%
% American Indian 84.2%
FLATHEAD
Population 26,172
Unemployment 7.9%
Per Capita Income $14,503
Poverty 15.8%
Median Age 37.4
BA+ 20.8%
% American Indian 26.7%
ROCKY BOY’S
Population 2,676
Unemployment 28.4%
Per Capita Income $7,326
Poverty 38.0%
Median Age 20.5
BA+ 11.8%
% American Indian 96.3%
FORT BELKNAP
Population 2,959
Unemployment 23%
Per Capita Income $8,150
Poverty 36.5%
Median Age 23.5
BA+ 12.5%
% American Indian 94.3%
FORT PECK
Population 10,321
Unemployment 17.5%
Per Capita Income $10,691
Poverty 30.1%
Median Age 30.2
BA+ 14.6%
% American Indian 61.9%
NORTHERN CHEYENNE
Population 4,470
Unemployment 19.5%
Per Capita Income $7,736
Poverty 39.3%
Median Age 22.7
BA+ 13.5%
% American Indian 90.1%
CROW
Population 6,894
Unemployment 17.1%
Per Capita Income $9,440
Poverty 26.6%
Median Age 27.6
BA+ 13.8%
% American Indian 74.9%
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU,CENSUS 2000
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Reservation Total
American Indian Tribe Number
Blackfeet 10,110 8,146 Blackfeet alone 7,441
Crow 6,894 5,132 Crow alone 4.556
Flathead 26,172 6,339 Salish alone
Kootenai alone
Salish and Kootenai
1,842
308
2,348
Fort Belknap 2,959 2,764 Assiniboine alone
Gros Ventres alone
1,068
1,276
Fort Peck 10,321 6,116 Assiniboine alone
Assiniboine Sioux alone
Sioux alone
1,107
781
3,406
Northern Cheyenne 4,470 3,835 Northern Cheyenne alone 2,982
Rocky Boy’s 2,676 2,446 Rocky Boy’s Chippewa Cree alone 2130
Population by American Indian and by Tribe:Population by American Indian and by Tribe:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Item Number PercentTOTAL 56,068 100%
Urban 23,347 41.6%
Metropolitan* 9,537 17%
Rural 32,721 58.4%
Not in a Place** 14,283 25.5%
*Metropolitan Areas: Billings, Great Falls, Missoula
**Concentrations of population, housing, and commercial structures that areidentifiable by name but have no legal authority.
American Indian Population: Urban vs RuralUrban = 1,000 people per square mile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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What is an ‘economy’?Businesses
Consumers
GovernmentCreate Wealth
Redistribute Wealth
Jobs Income
•Marketing•Customer Service•Accounting•Management
•Public Finance•Zoning/Land Use•Public Works•Public Safety
Source: “Understanding Your Community’s Economic Base,” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu
67% of GDP
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Current Reservation Environment
Population Faster growth rate Younger median age
Education Fewer with degrees Higher drop out rate
Social Larger percent of
population uses food stamps
Higher pregnancy rate
Higher alcohol treatment need
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Current Reservation Economies Higher unemployment More poverty Lower per capita income Lower wages Lower housing values Smaller private sector
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Types of Jobs 33% of jobs on the reservation are
Government compared with 15% of jobs in the country as a whole
44% of jobs on the reservation are in the Private Sector compared with 80% of jobs in the nation
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fedgazette, March 2006
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Item 1997 2002
Number of businesses – MT 93,677 100,421
Number of Businesses – AI 1,912 1,990
Growth Rate – MT (1997 – 2002) 9%
Growth Rate – AI (1997 – 2002) 4%
Population – MT 878,706 910,670
Population – AI 54,726 57,841
Firms/1,000 citizens – MT 107 110
Firms/1,000 Indians – AI 35 34
Firms with employees – MT 25,974 28,258
Firms with employees – AI 438 357
% of firms with employees/total firms - MT 28% 28%
% of firms with employees/total firms – AI 23% 18%
Sales per business – MT ($1,000) $402,321 $445,543
Sales per business – AI ($1,000) $86,436 $107,830
Business Environment
NOTE: AI = American Indian Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Survey of Business Owners”
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Industry % in Montana % on Reservations* Wages**
Forestry 0.8% 9.3% $655
Construction 14.1% 16% $621
Manufacturing 3.7% 3.6% $680
Wholesale Trade 4.3% 3.6% $693
Retail Trade 14.8% 18.9% $398
Transportation & Warehousing 3.5% 2.1% $573
Information 1.8% 0.9% $673
Finance & Insurance 5.5% 1.5% $752
Real Estate and Rental 4.6% 3.0% $414
Professional Services 9.1% 6.6% $735
Admin Support and Waste Management 4.1% 3.9% $386
Health Care and Social Assistance 9.1% 3.3% $586
Arts, Recreation, Entertainment 2.9% 2.4% $267
Accommodations 2.0% 4.8% $280
Food Services 7.6% 7.8% $199
Other Consumer Services 8.9% 5.7% $376
Average Weekly Wages – State $535
INDUSTRY COMPARISONS
Sources: See last page
* Indian Owned Businesses Only** MT Average Weekly Wages
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NON-RESERVATION INDUSTRIESIndustry % in Montana %Urban Wages
Mining 0.8% 1.4% $1,040
Utilities 0.6% 2.9% $1,124
Construction 14.1% 38.6% $621
Manufacturing 3.7% 7.1% $680
Wholesale Trade 4.3% 2.9% $693
Retail Trade 14.8% 1.4% $398
Transportation & Warehousing 3.5% 1.4% $573
Finance & Insurance 5.5% 1.4% $752
Real Estate and Rental 4.6% 4.3% $414
Professional Services 9.1% 14.3% $735
Admin Support and Waste Management 4.1% 11.4% $386
Health Care and Social Assistance 9.1% 1.4% $586
Food Services 7.6% 1.4% $199
Other Consumer Services 8.9% 4.3% $376
Average Weekly Wages – State $535
Source: See last page
* Indian Owned Businesses Only** MT Average Weekly Wages
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Non-Reservation Business Locations
Billings: 30
Great Falls: 9Helena: 10
Missoula: 5
Kalispell: 5 Havre: 5
*Note: Indian Owned Businesses Only
Source: See last page
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www.ourfactsyourfuture.org
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UNEMPLOYMENT
Statistics represent labor characteristics of the reservation, not the tribe.
Unemployment rates produced by MT Department of Labor
Labor Force definition: Civilian, non-institutional
population 16 years and older The sum of Employment and
Unemployment Employment definition:
Did any work as paid employees or,
Worked in their own business, profession, or farm or,
Worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family owned enterprise
Unemployment Rate definition: Equal to the number of
Unemployed divided by number in the Labor Force
Statistics represent labor characteristics of the tribe, not the reservation.
Labor Force definition: Number of tribal
members between 16 and 64 years old
Available for work Not disabled or
incarcerated
Employment definition: Tribal members working
for money
Unemployment definition: Calculated by subtracting
Employment from Labor Force
MT Dept of Labor, Research and Analysis Bureaus Criteria: Bureau of Indian Affairs Criteria:
www.ourfactsyourfuture.org
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Productivity – Measure of EfficiencyAverage Output per Worker (IMPLAN)
Area Output/worker
Montana $86,309
Blackfeet $75,398
Crow $76,531
Flathead $82,532
Fort Belknap $56,367
Fort Peck $69,559
Northern Cheyenne $60,559
Rocky Boys $67,638
Glacier $71,790
Toole $77,466
Yellowstone $116,707
Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com
Area Output/worker
Lewis & Clark $82,675
Cascade $83,367
Missoula $82,749
Gallatin $80,178
Flathead $85,341
Hill $69,383
Garfield $82,941
Richland $85,986
Rosebud $100,944
Blaine $59,319
Beaverhead $80,303
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Compensation per WorkerAverage Salary per Worker (IMPLAN)
Area Output/worker
Montana $24,680
Blackfeet $20,894
Crow $21,697
Flathead $24,197
Fort Belknap $16,089
Fort Peck $17,129
Northern Cheyenne $27,005
Rocky Boys $21,908
Glacier $26,409
Toole $22,866
Yellowstone $28,867
Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com
Area Output/worker
Lewis & Clark $30,370
Cascade $28,048
Missoula $25,324
Gallatin $23,500
Flathead $23,225
Hill $23,711
Garfield $10,775
Richland $21,350
Rosebud $35,437
Blaine $19,141
Beaverhead $21,834
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Natural ResourcesResource Total
Timber Sales (2005) $ 4,242,299
Coal Royalties (2000) $ 3,402,663
Gas Royalties (2000) $ 610,000
Oil Royalties (2000) $ 2,550,800
Montana Reservations compared to U.S. Reservations• 13% of all acres of coal• 12% of all oil and gas leases• 5% of all coal royalties/revenues• 5% of oil royalties/revenues
Source: Minerals Management Office, U.S. Geological Survey
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Agriculture on the Reservation
Item Total
Non Native American
Native American
% of Total
Farms 2,552 1,825 727 29%
Average Size (acres) 3,116 2,179 5,196 167%
Market Value of Products $221,182,000 $162,150,000 $59,032,000 27%
Farm Expenses* $183,549,000 $150,709,000 $32,841,000 18%
Internet Access 1,406 1,048 358 26%
% of Farms with Internet 55% 57% 49% N/A
Market Value per Acre $52,116 $59,636 $11,361 22%
Expense per Acre $43,249 $55,428 $6,320 15%
Net Income per Acre $8,867 $4,208 $5,041 57%
* Due to confidential information, only 6 reservations used
United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/index.asp
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Business – Where to Locate
How much population is needed?
Population: 5,584
On reservation
Business Town Population Market Population
Grocery Store 329 1,250
General Merchandise 385 1,536
Pharmacy 957 2,939
Hardware Store 959 3,709
Automotive Parts 1,083 4,000
16 mile radius – One establishment
Retail sales: Gauge of purchasing powerPopulation:
3,946Off reservation
“Potential for Retail Trades in Rural Communities,” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu; Montana Natural Resource Information System, Interactive Mapping and Database Applications, http://nris.state.mt.us/interactive.html
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Examples
Store Actual Potential
Automotive 0 1
Grocery 1 3
Pharmacy 0 1
General* 2 2
Hardware 0 1
Total 3 8
* Dollar stores, general stores, trading posts: retail new goods such as apparel, dry goods, house wares, etc.
U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns, 2003, www.census.gov
Population: 5,584
On reservation
Population: 3,946
Off reservation
Number of Establishments
Store Actual Potential
Automotive 2 1
Grocery 2 3
Pharmacy 1 1
General* 1 2
Hardware 1 1
Total 7 8
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Blackfeet Reservation Montana
Industry
Native American
Non Indian
Cut Bank
Ave Wages
Agriculture 2 8 17 $477
Construction 8 0 18 $621
Manufacturing 1 0 10 $680
Retail 23 18 48 $398
Professional Business Services 19 11 49 $779
Health Care 0 0 20 $761
Restaurants 16 16 20 $210
Consumer Services 11 4 21 $376
PRIVATE BUSINESSES
Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits. Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor
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GOVERNMENT
Government
Blackfeet Reservation Cut Bank
Ave Wages
City/County 8 27 $519
State 6 12 $660
Tribal 76 0 $600
Federal 35 5 $953
TOTAL 125 44
Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits. Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor
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Threshold Analysis Central Place Theory - Population needed to
support retail and service businesses Simple Analysis: population and number of
businesses Similar characteristics such as population & location Does not take into account economies of scale
Square footage Number of doctors in one facility
Grocery store Health care Financial Institutions
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Grocery StoresLocation Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 4,480 4 6
Browning 1 2
Wolf Point 1 2
Ronan 2 2
Just off Reservation 2,923 5 5
Trade Center 3,287 10 12
Metropolitan 2,853 75 85
Statewide 2,725 337 337
On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, RonanJust Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, GlasgowTrade Center: Havre, Miles City, GlendiveMetropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena
# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 2,725
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Health Care: Doctors and Clinics
Location Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 1,378 13 35
Browning 2 13
Wolf Point 3 10
Ronan 8 12
Just off Reservation 812 18 29
Trade Center 587 56 64
Metropolitan 300 808 476
Statewide 509 1,804 1,804
# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 509
On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, RonanJust Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, GlasgowTrade Center: Havre, Miles City, GlendiveMetropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena
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Financial InstitutionsLocation Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 3,584 5 14
Browning 1 5
Wolf Point 2 4
Ronan 2 5
Just off Reservation 1,044 14 12
Trade Center 1,174 28 27
Metropolitan 780 311 197
Statewide 1,227 748 748
# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 1,227
On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, RonanJust Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, GlasgowTrade Center: Havre, Miles City, GlendiveMetropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena
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Implications Reservations are underserved in these
private sectors
Just Off the Reservation serving own population and reservation
Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a much larger region
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Location Quotient Determine if number of jobs are what a local
economy should have to serve local needs Comparison of local employment to statewide for
each industry < 1 = underserved, > 1 = serving more than local MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research
and Analysis has calculated LQ for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)
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Blackfeet ReservationIndustry LQ Comment
Grocery Stores 0.03 Very under served
Financial Institution ND Non-disclosable – one establishment
Health Care ND Non-disclosable – one establishmentIndustry LQ Comment
Human Resource Programs
16.6 Most over served of all
Executive Government 14.9 2nd over served
Can not provide Location Quotient for most businesses since there are so few of them
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Implications Money is leaving the reservations to
purchase retail goods and consumer services
There is not an adequate supply of financial services on the reservations
There is not an adequate supply of doctors, clinics, etc. on the reservations
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Diversity of Economy Hachman Index measures diversity of economy –
employment spread out among many different industries compared to benchmark Montana or United States
More diversity reduces community’s vulnerability to economic downturns
Closer to 1 mean more diversity MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research
and Analysis has calculated HI for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)
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Hachman Index Fort Peck Reservation = .24 Blackfeet Reservation = .14
County Hachman Indices Lowest (Stillwater) = .01 Median = .25
(McCone, Phillips, Toole)
Highest = .66 (Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)
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Implications Reservation and county economies are not
diverse
‘One company’ towns
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Summary Private businesses create wealth
Private goods and services Business decisions
Governments redistribute wealth Public goods and services Government decisions
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Department of CommerceCensus and Economic Information Center
www.ceic.mt.gov American Indian Data
Census 2000 Economic Census 2002 Census Population Estimates by Race Census of Agriculture Office of Public Instruction 1990 Census CEIC Presentations CEIC Maps
Department of LaborWorkforce Services DivisionResearch and Analysis Bureau
www.ourfactsourfuture.mt.gov
2006 Labor Day Report MT Reservation Data
Montana Indian Business Alliance (MIBA)
www.mibaonline.org
Indian Census Data Indian Economic Data Indian Business Data Indian Business Directory Reservation Maps
NATIVE AMERICAN STATISTICS
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STATE % AIAN # of AIAN LEGISLATORS % AIAN
Oklahoma 7.4% 17 15.2%
Montana 6.0% 10 11.1%
New Mexico 9.6% 6 5.7%
Alaska 14.2% 9 4.8%
Washington 1.4% 5 3.4%
Maine 0.5% 2 3.3%
South Dakota 8.4% 4 2.8%
Arizona 4.7% 2 2.2%
Colorado 0.9% 3 1.2%
North Dakota 4.9% 2 1.2%
Wyoming 1.9% 1 1.0%
North Carolina 1.3% 1 0.7%
Legislative Representation
Note: AIAN is American Indian Alaska Native
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Contact InformationSusan Ockert
Montana Department of Commerce
Census and Economic Information Center
Senior Research Economist
(406) 821-2740
www.ceic.mt.gov
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•Industry Data:U.S. Census Bureau, “County Business Patterns” •Reference USA, •Small Business Administration, Minority Business Database,•Montana Department of Transportation, Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Program•Personal visits and interviews•Montana Business Alliance members•University of Montana American Indian Leadership
•Reservation Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, 2003; MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005•Population: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates•Unemployment: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day Report 2005•Per Capita: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003•Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2002•Housing Value: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000•Median Age: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000•% Food Stamps: MT Department Public Health and Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005•Pregnancies: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen Pregnancies and Their Outcomes 1981-2000, November 2002•Alcohol treatment Need: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, An Integrated Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for Montana, 2001•Drop Out: Office of Public Instruction, Montana High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2003-04 School Year•U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF) – Sample Data, www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/allreservationsbytribe.xls•U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 2, Matrix PCT1. www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/urban_rural_indian.xls
Sources: