1 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana @ Copyright 2002, Department.

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

@ Copyright 2002, Department Infrastructure

The Impact of Climate The Impact of Climate Change on the Rainfall Change on the Rainfall

Distribution in SurinameDistribution in Surinameby

Nurmohamed Riad J.1

1 ADEK University of Suriname, Faculty of Technological Sciences, Department Infrastructure, Leysweg, POB 9212, Paramaribo, Suriname (S.A), Phone:+597-465558 ext 351, Fax: +597-495005,

E-mail: [email protected], Website: www.uvs.edu, Homepage: http://www.geocities.com/riadnur/Index.htm

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

ContentContent

Introduction in Climate Change

Objectives

Study Area and Data Used

Results and Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature

Methodology

Impact Climate Change on Rainfall and Temperature

Conclusions and Recommendations

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Introduction (1)Introduction (1)

Before year 2000, Earth’s Average Global Surface Temperature (TGS) has increased 0.6+0.2oC

By year 2100 (2 x CO2) TGS will increase 1.5 to 4.5oC => Climate Change (IPCC)

Temperature change => precipitation change, inclusive change in intensity and frequency of rainfalls, location and patterns of extreme weather evens

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Introduction (2)Introduction (2)

Climate Change Impact:

• Change in rainfall => change in river runoff, biodiversity, forestry, coastal and marine ecosystems

• Sea level rise => saltwater intrusion in coastal groundwater's, flooding low lying areas

Change in quantity and distribution of rainfall => effect availability of freshwater, its use, planning and management of water resources projects, extreme draughts, forest fires

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

ObjectivesObjectives

Analysis of historical monthly and annual rainfall time series to identify trends,

Analysis of historical monthly and annual temperature time series to identify trends, and

Predictions of future rainfall and temperature quantity and distribution

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Study AreaStudy Area

Area Suriname: +163,800km2, +85% covered with forest

Climate: tropical humid, mean daily temperature: 23-31oC, mean annual rainfall: <1500mm-3000mm/year, mean annual evaporation: 1600-1900mm/year

Four Seasons a year: (a) the long rain season (April-mid August), (b) the long dry season (mid August-December), (c) the short rain season (December-February) and (d) the small dry season (February-April)

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Data UsedData Used

11 rainfall stations:

daily data: 1900-1999

7 temperature stations:

daily data: 1971-1999

(1) Albina,(2/6) Brownsweg,(3), Coeroeni,(4) Cultuurtuin,(5) Friendshiptotness,(6) Kabalebo,(7) Moengo,(8) Sipaliwini,(9) Stoelmanseiland,(10) Tafelberg, (11) NwNickerie.

Record lengths >15 years

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

MethodologyMethodology

Linear regression analysis,

The 5-year moving average, and

Extrapolation of historical trends and simulations of Global Circulation Models (HadCM2 (UK), ECHAM4 (Germany), CGCM1 (Canada), GFDL-TR (USA), CSIRO2-EQ (Australia) and CCSR-NIES (Japan))

Analyzing long term annual and monthly data of rainfall, temperature and climate change impacts:

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Results and Analysis (1)Results and Analysis (1)

Rainfall Analysis and Trends:

Annual average rainfall 1961-1985

• increasing with +3-41 mm/year (Albina,Brownsweg,Coeroeni,Cultuurtuin,Kabalebo, Moengo,NwNickerie,Stoelmanseiland)

• decreasing with -2.4- -14.5 mm/year (Friendshiptotness,Sipaliwini,Tafelberg)

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Results and Analysis (2)Results and Analysis (2)

Rainfall Analysis and Trends:Cultuurtuin

y = 10.854x + 1282.6

R2 = 0.064

y = -2.8106x + 2334.8

R2 = 0.0545

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Time (years)

An

nu

al R

ain

fall

(mm

)

Long period Short period Trend (short period)

Trend (long period) 5 per moving average

Trend for annual average rainfall at station Cultuurtuin during a 25 year period (1961-1985) and 100 year period (1900-1999)

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Results and Analysis (3)Results and Analysis (3)

Annual average rainfall, 1900-1999

• increasing with +0.83-16.34 mm/year (Albina,Brownsweg, Coeroeni,Kabalebo, Stoelmanseiland)

• decreasing with -2.4- -14.34 mm/year (Cultuurtuin, Friendshiptotness, Moengo, NwNickerie, Sipaliwini,Tafelberg)

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Results and Analysis (4)Results and Analysis (4)

Temperature Analysis and Trends:

Annual average temperature 1971-1985

• increasing with +0.001-0.081oC/year (all stations)

Annual average temperature 1900-1999

• increasing with +0.001-0.063oC/year (all stations)

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Results and Analysis (5)Results and Analysis (5)

Temperature Analysis and Trends:

y = 0.0284x + 26.89

R2 = 0.359

y = 0.0812x + 26.525

R2 = 0.7349

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999Time (years)

An

nu

al A

vera

ge

Tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

Short period Long periodTrend (long period) Trend (short period)

Trend for annual average temperature at station Cultuurtuin during a 15 year period (1971-1985) and 28 year period (1971-1999)

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Climate Change Impact on the Rainfall Climate Change Impact on the Rainfall Quantity and DistributionQuantity and Distribution

Observed Rainfall

Data(1961-1985)

Rainfall Period Rainfall

(mm) (year) (mm)

value (%) value (%) value (%) value (%) value (%) value (%)

2162 2030 2140 (-1) 1929 (-11) 2088 (-3) 2159 (-0.1) 2315 (7) 2171 (0.4)

2162 2060 2126 (-1.6) 1726 (-20) 2152 (-0.5) 2192 (1.4) 3008 (40) 2178 (0.7)

2162 2100 2107 (-2.5) 1444 (-33) 2056 (-5) 2146 (-0.7) 2836 (31) 2189 (1)

Average Annual precipitation (mm)Historical Rainfall Trend Data

Modelled Rainfall

ModelsHadCM2 ECHAM4 GFDL-TR CCSR-

NIESCSIRO 2-

EQ

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Climate Change Impact on the Temperature Climate Change Impact on the Temperature Quantity and DistributionQuantity and Distribution

Observed Temp. Data

Historical Temp.

(1971-1985)

Trend Data

Temp. Period Temp.

(oC) (year) (oC)

value (change)

value (change)

value (change)

value (change)

value (change)

value (change)

26.8 2030 27.9 (1.1) 28 (1.2) 27.9 (1.1) 27.5 (0.7) 27.5 (0.7) 27.3 (0.5)

26.8 2060 28.6 (1.8) 29 (2.2) 28.8 (2) 28.1 (1.3) 28.2 (1.4) 27.7 (0.9)

26.8 2100 29.6 (2.8) 30.3 (3.5) 30 (3.2) 28.9 (2.1) 29.1 (2.3) 28.3 (1.5)

Average Annual Temperature (oC)

Modelled Temperature

ModelsCSIRO 2-

EQHadCM2 ECHAM4 GFDL-TR CCSR-

NIES

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Conclusions and Recommendations (1)Conclusions and Recommendations (1)

Decreasing and increasing trend in annual rainfall in Suriname

Historical Trend Analysis:

Increasing trend in annual temperature in Suriname

Reason(s) and relation between rainfall and temperature trend need to be analyzed

Moving average better indicator for detail trend analysis

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Conclusions and Recommendations (2)Conclusions and Recommendations (2)

Future Analysis/Predictions (2000-2100):

Trends:

• Annual rainfall => decrease -1- -2.5%

• Annual temperature => increase 1.1-2.8oC

Global Circulation Models:

• Annual rainfall => decrease/increase -0.1--33%/0.4-31%

• Annual temperature => increase 0.5-3.5oC

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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana

Conclusions and Recommendations (3)Conclusions and Recommendations (3)

For further studies, Regional Climate Change scenarios are needed and additional climatic data from French Guiana, Guyana and Brazil need to be collected