1 24 th Nov, 2013 Guar Scenario Mapping The Market Thought of Guar and Guargum markets Nagaraj Meda Managing Director TransGraph Consulting Pvt.Ltd 6 th & 7 th, Dec’2013 Jaipur
Dec 26, 2015
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24th Nov, 2013
Guar Scenario
Mapping The Market Thought of
Guar and Guargum markets
Nagaraj MedaManaging Director
TransGraph Consulting Pvt.Ltd
6th & 7th, Dec’2013Jaipur
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide
Price drivers –review
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Higher Natural Gas prices in US increased shale Gas Production and higher Guar Gum Exports from India
Good prices realization by Shale producers and increased buying Guar Gum for Shale Fracking
Increased cost to Shale Gas producers of gum and Started using Substitutes like Carboxy methyl Cellulose
Higher Guar seed Production in 2012-13
Expected Higher Ending stocks & higher Production
Demand analysis
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Indian Guar Gum Exports Sector Wise
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60%20%
15%
2%1% 2%
Oil drilling Food industry Paper&Textile
Pharmaceutical Cosmetics Others
Guar Gum in the International Markets
62%
28%
4%2%4%
Food Industry Paper & Textile Pharmaceutical
Cosmetics Others
Guar Gum usage in the Domestic Markets
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Shale production: Chemical used per Fracking
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Position ChemicalsQuantity Required per activity ( tons)
Acid Hydrochloride 4.25
Biocides Quaternary Ammonium Chloride 17Corrosion Inhibitor Methanol 4.25Friction Reduce Petroleum Distillate 4.25
Gelling Agent Guar Gum Or Carboxy Methyl Cellulose 42.5Oxygen Scavenger Boric Acid 4.25Cross Linker Sulfate 8.5
Source : Chevron & TG
Gelling AgentSupport gel formation, increase viscosity for proper down hole transportation of sand, ideal proppant carriage
Guar gum, hydroxyethylcellulose, ( Carboxy Methyle cellulose), Petroleum Distillate Ethylene Glycol
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US Shale Production Trend (BCF)
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2011 2012 2013e 2014p 2015p13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
14926
15896
1678317027
1734224.16%
6.49%5.58%
1.45% 1.85%
Production %Change
US Shale & Oil Production and % Change y/y
Source : EIA & TG
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US Recoverable Gas Reserves (TCF)
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20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20400.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Shale gas
Tight gas
Coalbed methane
US Recoverable Shale Gas Reserves Up to 2040 ( In TCF)
US shale Gas reserves are near 26.5 trillion cubic feet and US may meet nearly 60% of its energy requirements from Shale.
Source : EIA & TG
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Key Elements for Guar gum Demand
• To get a billion cubic feet of shale gas, an estimated 12 tons (approx.) of Gelling Agent will be used.
• To produce 17027 BCF of gas in 2014, US would require approx., 204325 tons of gelling agents.
• Guar gum imports in 2012 were 2,04,000 tons.
• By 2030, EIA estimates shale gas production in US to go to 26,000 BCF of gas resulting into 312000 lakh tons of gelling agents.
• Depending on price competitiveness there is an excellent scope for demand growth of Guar gum.
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World Recoverable Shale Gas Reserves (TCF)
As per EIA Estimation shale gas will emerge as most important energy resource due to its cost competitiveness.
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China
Argentina
Algeria US
Canad
a
Mexico
Australi
a
South Afric
aRussi
aBraz
ilIndia
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 1115
802707 665
573 545437 390
285 245
60
world Recoverable Shale Gas (TCF)Source : EIA
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Indian Shale Prospect
• ONGC started first shale Fracking pilot project in Gujarat recently and if its get successful then they will drill nearly 30 wells in 2 years of time.
• It is expected that Shale gas production will increase post 2015, as currently Fracking process is expensive.
• Meanwhile, in India the shale Fracking could lead to water crisis as each well requires near 3 to 5 million liters of water.
• Demand from Indian shale industry is not very significant.
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Supply analysis
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92.32%
4.70%
1.72% 0.71% 0.55%India
Pakisthan
US
South & North Sudan
Australia
World Guar Production Share
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State wise Acreage
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State 2012-13 2013-14E Reason
Rajasthan 45.26 41 Declined sowing in unirrigated area due to lower yield
Gujarat 2.46 4.8 Higher price realization than castor seeds
Haryana 2.42 3.9 Higher price realization than Bajra
MP 0.52 0.48 Lower yield percentage and less accessibility of buyers
Punjab 0.42 0.49 Good price realization by last year
MH 0.34 0.24 Lower yield from last year crop and few processing centers
AP 0.23 0.14 Last year crop damage and lower yield percentageTotal (lakh
ha) 51.65 51.05 -1.16% Lower prices compared with last year
Source : Agri ministry & TG
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State wise production with reasons
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Guar Seed Production (lakh tons) and % changesstates 2012-13 2013-14 % Change RemarksRajasthan 21.14 17.47
Yield prospects suffered due to prolonged dry weather in Rajasthan, after good monsoon at sowing time.
Gujarat 1.23 2.31Haryana 1.22 1.72Others 0.56 0.52Total 24.16 22.02 -8.85
Source : Agri ministry & TG
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Guar Seed –Last Ten years Area and Production Trend
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2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14E0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
28.67 29.5633.44 34.73
38.63
29.90 28.37 29.50
51.65 51.05
22.02
Area Production
Area & Production in Lakh ha/tons Source : Agri ministry & TG
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Indian Guar Seed Production & Gum Exports
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2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14E
0.002.004.006.008.00
10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.0022.0024.0026.00
22.02
0.83 0.83 1.38 1.50 1.50 2.07 1.903.62 4.87
3.395.00
Seed Production
Gum Exports
Source : DGFT & TG
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Expected Indian Guar distribution -2013-14
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Total Guar Seed Supply in 2013-14
Domestic usage of Guar Gum Sector Wise
Textile & Paper Food industry Shale Gas
30.24
6.71
Exports5.00
Domestic1.71
22.02Total Guar Production For 2013-14
Exports of Guar Gum Demand Sector Wise
Pharmaceutical Cosmetics Others
3.00 1.00 0.75 0.1 0.05 0.01
Food Industry PharmaceuticalPaper & Textile OthersCosmetics
1.06 0.47 0.06 0.03 0.06
Total Guar Gum Consumption
Beginning Stocks 8.22
Source : DGFT & TG (in lack tons)
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Indian Guar seed Balance Sheet
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Attribute 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14E % Change
Beginning stocks seeds 16.32 10.69 5.88 0.99 8.22 733.01
Production seeds 5.931 12.06 16 24.16 22.02 -8.86
Total Supply Seeds 22.25 22.75 21.88 25.14 30.24 20.24
Domestic Consumption in terms of Seeds
5.21 4.82 4.66 5.62 6.89 22.60
Domestic Consumption in terms of Gum
1.8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.71 22.14
Exports in terms of seed 6.35 12.05 16.23 11.30 16.67 47.36
Exports in terms of Gum 1.90 3.62 4.87 3.39 5 47.36
Total demand Seed 11.56 16.87 20.89 16.92 23.56 39.14
Ending stocks Seed 10.69 5.88 0.99 8.22 6.68 -18.70
Stock to use ratio Seed 92.47% 34.85% 4.74% 48.58% 28.35%* Conversion factor for Seed to gum is considered at 3.33 ( All units in Lakh tons)
Source : Agri ministry & TG
S/c ratio of 28% or 15 weeks of consumption is generally bearish however it appears that farmers will hold to stocks if prices are below 4500 and traders will start stocking when an upward rally is signaled.
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Guar World Acreage & Production
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• The World Guar Production for 2013-14 might be near 2.38 million tons, whereas Indian percentage share is near 92.3% due to higher production from last 2 years by good price realization.
• Pakistan Guar production might be near 1.12 Lakh tons for 2013-14 year on the back of lower rains in sindh region during pod formation stage. While, last year production was near 1.21 Lakh tons.
Country Acreage In Lakh ha % Change
Production In Lakh tons % Change2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14
India 51.65 51.05 -1.16 24.16 22.02 -8.86Pakistan 2.74 2.6 -5.11 1.21 1.12 -7.44US 0.41 0.5 21.95 0.32 0.41 28.13South & North Sudan 0.38 0.41 7.89 0.15 0.17 13.33Australia 0.26 0.31 19.23 0.114 0.13 14.04Total 55.44 54.87 -1.03 25.954 23.85 -8.11
Source : online news & TG
Technical analysis
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Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Scenario - A
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• Scenario- A of Elliott wave study suggests that Guar Seed prices are on the verge of concluding the intermediate degree corrective wave C of zigzag type primary degree corrective wave 4 of by posting a low between INR 4500-4000 by Jan’14.
• Thereafter prices shall commence the intermediate degree impulse wave 1 of primary degree wave 5 towards INR 9000-10000 by the second half of the year 2014.
• The same shall be followed by an intermediated degree corrective wave 2 to bring prices lower towards INR 7000-6000 again.
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Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Scenario - B
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• Scenario- B of Elliott wave study suggests that Guar Seed prices are going through a corrective cycle of primary degree and shall post a low of around INR 4400 to conclude the corrective wave C of intermediate degree within a month.
• Thereafter prices shall enter a phase of bear market rally and commence combining corrective wave X of intermediate degree. This wave shall post a high around 11000 by the mid of the year 2014.
• Following that prices shall continue with corrective wave Y of intermediate degree to bring prices lower again.
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 22
Guar Gum Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Scenario - A
• Scenario- A of Elliott wave study suggests that Guar Gum prices are on the verge of concluding the intermediate degree corrective wave C of zigzag type primary degree corrective wave 4 by posting a low between INR 12500-13200 by Jan’14.
• Thereafter prices shall commence the intermediate degree impulse wave 1 of primary degree wave 5 towards INR 28000-30000 by the second half of the year 2014.
• The same shall be followed by an intermediated degree corrective wave 2 to bring prices lower towards INR 19000-17000 again.
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 23
Guar Gum Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Scenario – B
• Scenario- B of Elliott wave study suggests that Guar Seed prices are going through a corrective cycle of primary degree and shall post a low of around INR 12700 to conclude the corrective wave C of intermediate degree within a month.
• Thereafter prices shall enter a phase of bear market rally and commence combining corrective wave X of intermediate degree. This wave shall post a high around 38000 by the mid of the year 2014.
• Following that prices shall continue with corrective wave Y of intermediate degree to bring prices lower again.
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Guar Gum FOB Prices At Mundra Port (USD/ton)
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Guar Gum Spot Market Price Outlook
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TransGRAPH Price OutlookMarket Jodhpur Guar Gum Spot Market Week Closing INR 13500/qtl. on December 05 , 2013
Guargum price outlook1-3 Months: Slightly positive
INR 12600-16000
3-6 Months: Positive INR 15500-19500
Prices are close to bottom and might slowly enter a sideways to positive trend
Market Jodhpur Guar Seed Spot Market Week Closing INR 4650/qtl. on December 05 , 2013
Guarseed price outlook1-3 Months: Slightly positive
INR 4000-5400
3-6 Months: Positive INR 4500-6500
Thanking you for your attention.
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