1. 2 Main messages Brussels May 11, 2007 Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States.

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2

Main messages

Brussels

May 11, 2007

Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States

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Significant progress toward MDG1

People in developing countries living on less than $1 a day

1489

12471172

1093 11201067

985

721

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1981 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004 2015

Nu

mb

er

of

peo

ple

(m

illio

ns)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Perc

en

t o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Number of people Share of people

Globally MDG1 is on track (2015 forecast HCI=12%).

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Regional progress differs sharply

East Asia has already surpassed the MDG1 target. Sub-Saharan Africa lags well behind the target.

Poverty - EAP

29.8

14.9

2.4

9.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Actual $1/day Goal Projected $1/day

Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) – East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)

Poverty - SSA

23.4

46.7

35.6

41.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Actual $1/day Goal Projected $1/day

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Growth and Poverty Reduction Over Recent Period*

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

China Burkina Faso Brazil Mozambique India Nigeria Laos Peru

Annual Growth in GDP per capita Annual % Reduction in the Poverty Rate

The pace of poverty reduction depends on more than growth

* China: 1999-2004 Burkina Faso:1998-2003 Brazil: 1999-2002 Mozambique: 1996-2002

India: 1994-2005 Nigeria: 1996-2003 Laos: 1997-2002 Peru: 1996-2003Source: World Bank – Development Economics

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But also cautionary notes…

Risks to positive outlook – unwinding of global imbalances (US trade deficit), pandemic, oil price volatility.

• Environmental sustainability: growth for many is through depleting their natural assets.

• Fragile states are being left out: weak growth, little progress with poverty reduction, persistent fragility

Unadjusted and Adjusted Net SavingsFigure presents the calculation of adjusted net saving in Bolivia in 2003

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Lagging growth performance in fragile states

• Defined by weak governance and institutions; often affected by conflict.

• Fragile states have consistently grown more slowly than other low-income countries.

• State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition—21 of the 34 states judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005.

Real per capita growth 1986-90 1991-05 1996-2000 2001-05 2004 2005 2006Fragile states 0.1 -2.5 0.3 2.1 3.2 3.3 2.6 Fuel producers 1.7 -5.5 2.4 2.9 2.2 5.9 4.0 Non-fuel producers -0.1 -2.0 -0.1 2.0 3.4 2.8 2.3Nonfragile states 1.3 -0.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.5

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Advancing the MDGs--Fragile states are

least likely to meet MDG1

•35 states—home to 9% (500 million) of the developing world’s population and 27% of its extreme poor.

•State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition—21 of the 34 states judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005.

• Impact beyond borders. •Pose a dilemma for development community.

Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Fragile states

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Fragile states are the least likely to meet the MDGs

•Facing the largest MDG gap; 27% of extreme poor; nearly 1/3 of child deaths and children not completing school; ¼ of the HIV positive population

•Reforms approved for rapid response procedures, organization and staffing (WB).

•Need to implement these reforms, strengthen international partnerships, and deepen lessons on approaches.

Sources: World Bank Staff estimates

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The Role of Quality in MDG Progress

Message 1: Accelerating progress on HD MDGs, but not enough to meet the goals– All regions – and 80% of countries -- off track on child mortality goal– South Asia off track on all goals– Sub-Saharan Africa off track on all goals

• …but some countries in every region showing exceptional results• Mozambique, Cambodia, Benin, Rwanda and Niger in primary

completion• Timor Leste, Vietnam, Bhutan, Mongolia and Eritrea on child

mortality• Increase in ART access (Botswana, Kenya, South Africa and

Uganda have reached 50% of those in need) and declining HIV prevalence in some countries

• Malawi and Namibia on track to water target; Senegal on sanitation

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ODA for HD is increasing …especially in health

Message 2: ODA for HD has increased, but unevenprogress on harmonization

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EFA FTI is fostering harmonization and alignment in education…

but these remain key issues in health

• In Rwanda, only 14% of donor health funding is channeled through MOH and 12% through health districts: 74% managed by donors directly

• 85% of reported health funding goes to AIDS and malaria

• Aid flows are highly volatile, due to mostly 1-2 year commitments

• Limited funding for health system strengthening and investments outside health

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Pro-poor progress on primary completion…Average Annual Change in Primary School Completion

7.4

-2.2

1.2

-1.0

-2.6

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.8

1.4

1.1

2.3

1.4

3.4

2.2

11.9

6.5

6.4

-10.3

-6.1

-5.8

-3.5

-1.0

-0.3

1.5

1.9

2.0

3.1

3.7

5.1

6.1

9.3

9.6

13.7

15.8

23.4

Chad 1996/7 -2004

Senegal 1997-2005

Tanzania 1999-2004

Kenya 1997-2003

Mozambique 1997-2003

Philipinnes 1998-2003

Colombia 2000-05

Bolivia 1998-03

Indonesia 1997-2002/03

Egypt 2000-2005

Cameroon 1998-04

Malaw i 2000-2004

Peru 2000-2004

Morocco 1992-2003/04

Bangladesh 2000-04

Ethiopia 2000-2005

Madagascar 1997-2003/04

Burkina Faso 1998-03

Population average Poorest quintile Source: Demographic and Health Surveys

Message 3: The poor are benefiting from MDG progress, especially in education

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Child mortality progress less likely to reach the poor…

Average Annual Reduction in Under 5 Child Mortality

-1.3

-1.0

-0.1

1.7

0.4

-0.2

0.6

7.9

0.1

3.7

3.7

2.2

3.1

3.0

5.0

1.1

2.8

6.0

6.0

5.5

4.8

-1.7

-0.5

-0.4

0.0

0.5

0.9

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.4

4.7

5.0

5.1

5.4

6.4

Kenya 1997-2003

Nigeria 1990-2003

Chad 1996/7 -2004

Colombia 2000-05

Senegal 1997-2005

Cameroon 1998-04

Guinea 1999-2005

Ethiopia 2000-2005

Ghana 1998-2003

Tanzania 1999-2004

Morocco 1992-2003/04

Rwanda 2000-2005

Burkina Faso 1998-03

Bangladesh 2000-04

Philipinnes 1998-2003

Bolivia 1998-03

Mozambique 1997-2003

Madagascar 1997-2003/04

Egypt 2000-2005

Malawi 2000-2004

Indonesia 1997-2002/03

Population average Poorest quintileSource: Demographic and Health Surveys

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Message 4: A stronger focus on quality is needed even while scaling up quantity

• In India, a 2005 nationwide survey conducted by Pratham showed 68% of children in grades 2-5 could not read a very short paragraph

• In Peru, 46% of children at the end of 2nd grade in 2005 could not read a single word of a first grade text in 2005

• In rural Kenya, 30% of 2nd and 3rd graders unable to read any words in a first grade text in 2006

• In rural Cameroun, 80% of 3rd grade students in 2005 could not read a single word of a first grade text

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We lack good measures, but too many children are failing to learn….

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New research also shows quality issues in health: a competence/practice gap

• In Tanzania in 2004, 67% of clinicians mistreated TB and 24% mistreated malaria

• In India, doctors completed only about 20% of recommended protocol for diagnosing TB and child illnesses

• Institutional setting makes a difference – doctors in autonomous facilities perform better

• Contracting for results in Cambodia, Argentina, Afghanistan, Rwanda shows promise

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Stronger focus on quality needed in both education and health

• No evidence of an inherent “tradeoff” between access and quality over long term– Globally, highest performing education and health systems have broadest

access– Extending basic services to all crucial for equity, long-term social stability,

and economic gains from human development

• But closer monitoring of quality needed as countries scale up• Measure quality in terms of results:

– outputs (level of patient service delivered and instructional time) and outcomes (student learning, health outcomes).

– Inputs (qualification levels, numbers of clinics) don’t guarantee results

• Create incentives aligned with quality– International support to develop a globally-benchmarked learning

assessment relevant for developing countries– Support experimentation and evaluation of “contracting for performance” in

health

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Gender equality is measured in 3 domains:

Aggregate economic performance (poverty reduction, growth)

Gender equality in rights, resources and voice

Household

Household resource and task allocations

Fertility decisions

Economy & markets

Access to land

Financial services

Labor markets

Technology

Society

Civic and political participation Domain of

choices,

Domain of policy

Leveling the field of opportunities

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Increased equality has intrinsic and instrumental value

Increased gender equality in households, markets and society

Increased women’s labor force participation, productivity and earnings

Improved children’s well-being

Future poverty reduction and economic growth

Current poverty reduction and economic growth

Differential savings rate

Women have better education and health

Mother’s greater control over decision-making in households

Better health and educational attainment & greater productivity as adults

Income / consumption expenditure

Women have better access to markets

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Gender equality is about fairness, opportunity, and smart economics

Tracking gender equality over time: 1990-2005Importance: Intrinsic value; economic value; broader linkages to development

Performance: Major gains in enrollment parity: 83 of 106 countries by 2005. Elsewhere performance lags: labor force participation, political representation.

Monitoring: Need for better indicators and greater monitoring effort.

Mainstreaming: requires realistic goals; leadership, technical expertise and financing.

SSA EAP ECA LCR MNA SAR

0.5

1

Sh

are

of w

om

en

0.5

1F

em

ale

to

Ma

le R

atio

Female to Male ratio in (S) Secondary

Par: Proportion Seats held by women in Parliament

2005 1990

Source: World Bank Indicators. The regional averages are calculated using the earliest value sandwiched between 1990 and 1995 and the latest value between 2000 and 2005. The averages are weighted by the country population size in 2005.

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Official MDG indicators do not fully monitor gender equality and empowerment

• They exclude important elements of gender equality such as health.

• They poorly measure gender equality in education, employment and political participation.

• They monitor performance on national averages which can mask inequality within countries

Source: Duryea, Galiani, Nopo and Piras (2006)

Schooling gender gap among indigenous children in Bolivia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Age

Mea

n Ye

ars

of C

ompl

eted

Sc

hool

ing

Male Non-Indigenous Female Non-IndigenousMale Indigenous Female Indigenous

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Household Economy and markets

Modifications of official MDG indicators Additional indicators Additional indicators

Primary completion rate of girls and boys (MDG 2)

Percentage of 15-19 year-old girls who are mothers or pregnant with their first child

Labor force participation rates among women and men aged 20-24 and 25–49

Under five mortality rate for girls and boys (MDG 4)

Percentage of reproductive-age women, and their sexual partners, using modern contraceptives (MDG 6)

Recommended additional indicators for MDG3

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Monitoring child mortality reveals additional problem regions

Female under-5 mortality rate and female to male ratio, 2004

Source: World Population Prospects 2004.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

South Asia East Asia and

Pacific

Sub Saharan

Africa

Middle East &

North Africa

Europe &

Central Asia

Latin America

& Caribbean

Und

er-5

mor

talit

y ra

te

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Fem

ale

to m

ale

ratio

Female under-5 mortality rate Female to male under-5 mortality ratio

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The unfinished agenda

Closing gaps in well-being and opportunities for Closing gaps in well-being and opportunities for

girls and women in disadvantaged sub-groups girls and women in disadvantaged sub-groups

within nations.within nations.

Giving priority to Sub-Saharan Africa. Giving priority to Sub-Saharan Africa.

Paying special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile Paying special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile

states. states.

Scaling up collection of sex disaggregated data to Scaling up collection of sex disaggregated data to

measure progress (especially, in the domains of measure progress (especially, in the domains of

society and the market and economy).society and the market and economy).

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DAC Members’ ODA: 1990-05 and prospects 2006-10ODA:

• Dimming prospects for scaling up aid.

• aid concentration—most are not seeing increases.

•aid quality—increasing fragmentation; earmarking; lack of predictability, inadequate ‘flexible aid’.

•Scaling-up: opportunities exist—a range of reforming countries is well positioned to absorb scaled-up aid; the challenge is to establish an effective mechanism for scaling up.

Aid quality and scaling up: actions lag commitments

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

2004

US

$ bi

llions

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

% o

f GN

I

Bilateral Administrative Costs Contributions to Multilaterals

Other ODA Technical Cooperation

Humanitarian and Food Aid Debt Forgiveness Grants

Non-DAC ODA Projected Net ODA

ODA as a % of GNI Projected ODA as a % of GNI

DAC - ODA as a % of GNI (right axis)

Non-DAC ODA

DAC ODA volume

Source: OECD DAC.

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Evolution of net ODA to SSA

At the Gleneagles Summit, G-8 leaders promised to double aid to Africa by 2010:

• Nearly two years later, that increase in not translating into actual increases

• SSA is seeing little new aid beyond debt relief.

• Aid to Africa (excl. Nigeria) declined in 2005; preliminary data show that these flows stagnated in 2006.

.… especially in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Aid per capita by type of country groupAn improving trend in aid to fragile states

• In 2005, aid rose by more than two-thirds to nearly $20 billion (in 2004 dollar terms); aid flows continue to be volatile, however.

• Aggregate trends mask the wide variation across different types of fragile states: postconflict states typically receive more aid than other fragile states.

Much remains to be done to improve development effectiveness in fragile states

• International actors need to adopt “whole of government” approaches—those that require close collaboration between economic, development, diplomatic, and security actors.

• Donor agencies’ capacity to respond quickly to changing environments needs to be strengthened.

Donor focus on fragile states is increasing, but much remains to be done

Source: OECD DAC database and staff estimates.

Data exclude India. Aid is net ODA less humanitarian aid and debt relief.

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Donor support for gender equality: the way forward

Gender equality focus of bilateral ODA by sector (2001-05)

Source: OECD DAC.

Not all donors report the gender focus of their aid.

A quarter of all bilateral ODA allocated by sector has a gender focus.

Despite strong policy commitments to gender equality, implementation has been disappointing.

The way forward: -selectivity in gender mainstreaming

-results orientation with strengthened M&E

-stronger organizational arrangements for gender-specific actions and mainstreaming.

- synergies with aid effectiveness agenda

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More coherence among donors, developing countries and IFIs needed:

• profusion of aid channels—newly emerging donors, private foundations, global vertical funds

• aid fragmentation—large number of aid vehicles and small average size of funded activities

The initial situation regarding H&A is modest

• The Baseline Survey on Monitoring the Paris Declaration finds that:

- only 24% of missions were jointly undertaken and around half of country analytic work was joint

- only a third of countries have PFM systems that are moderately strong or better (score of 4 or higher) and less than 40% of aid uses partners’ PFM system or procurement systems

• Participants need to do more to operationalize the Paris framework.

The Paris Principles address some of the challenges to making aid more effective, but more is needed to achieve coherence in the aid architecture.

The global aid architecture is becoming more complex

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Role and performance of IFIs is under pressure

• Lending: Demand for loans increased in 2006; but future of concessional capacity in question (MDB share of aid? MDRI impact?).

• Management for results: sustained focus but slow progress.

• Gender equality: more focus (e.g., GAP) but implementation lags design; and mainstreaming needs accountability.

• Fragile states: need for more resources in balance with country capacity.

Gross Disbursements from MDBs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

US$ billions

Non-concessional

Concessional

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Summary of key messages

Growth is reducing poverty, but not everywhere or always sustainably; many

countries are failing to benefit, especially fragile states.

On the HD front quality lags quantity—children enroll in school but don’t always

learn.

Investing in gender equality and empowerment of women is smart economics—

better monitoring and mainstreaming of women’s empowerment and equality

into policy formulation and aid programs are vital to the development agenda.

Fragile states are failing to keep up—speed and staffing by development

agencies are critical. As well, there is need to pay special attention to MDG3

issues in fragile states.

Scaling up actions lag commitments of more and better aid; scaling up

“quality” aid requires greater coherence among donors, developing countries,

and international agencies.

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Thank you

The GMR and related materials are available at: http://www.worldbank.org/gmr2007