1 18-Month Outlook October 2003 - March 2005 Presented by Greg Hine IMO Long-Term Forecasts and Assessments.

1

18-Month OutlookOctober 2003 - March 2005

18-Month OutlookOctober 2003 - March 2005

Presented by

Greg HineIMO Long-Term Forecasts and Assessments

2

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Introduction

• Demand forecast

• Resource assessment

• Transmission assessment

• Inputs

• Comparisons

• Results

3

Separate PresentationsSeparate Presentations

• This presentation focuses on specific Outlook inputs, comparisons with previous Outlooks and results

• Another presentation focuses on the market rules, market manuals and the methodology to complete demand forecast, resource assessment and transmission assessment

4

IntroductionIntroduction

• IMO’s latest 18-Month Outlook covers October 2003 - March 2005

• published September 24, 2003 @ www.theIMO.com

• four documents on IMO web-site:• 18-Month Outlook (main document)

• 18-Month Demand Forecast

• Outlook Methodology

• Ontario Transmission System

• spreadsheet tables

5

DemandDemand

6

Demand ForecastDemand Forecast

• actual load, weather , economic

data through to the end of June

2003

• impact of new data captures the

latest relative sensitivity and

relationships between load and

weather

• Forecast of economic variables

as of July 2003

7

Variable Impact on Daily Peak DemandVariable Impact on Daily Peak Demand

• Temperature >16 C +1C +380 MW

• Temperature <10C -1C +110 MW

• Wind Summer -1km/h +10 MW

• Wind Winter +1km/h +10 MW

• Christmas Day -4700 MW

• Monday vs. Sunday +2000 MW

8

Data Impact on ModelData Impact on Model

• System increasingly sensitive to high temperatures• but rate of increase is slowing

• System continues to be less sensitive to low temperatures• but rate of decrease is slowing

• Level of economic activity is having a smaller impact on demand

• due to shifting demand to off-peak times

• growth non-energy intensive sector of the economy

• Applies to both peak and energy demand

9

Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook

• Outlook for the Ontario economy positive but lower than the forecast in the previous 18-Month Outlook

• World economic climate

• Sluggish U.S. recovery

• Economic data mixed

• Risk to the forecast is mostly on the “downside”

10

Changes to the Forecast2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (monthly)Changes to the Forecast2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (monthly)

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Oc

t-0

3

De

c-0

3

Fe

b-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Ju

n-0

4

Au

g-0

4

Oc

t-0

4

De

c-0

4

En

erg

y (G

Wh

)

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Pea

k (M

W)

Energy (TWh) Peak (MW)

11

Changes to the Peak Forecast 2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (weekly) Changes to the Peak Forecast

2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (weekly)

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Oc

t-0

3

De

c-0

3

Fe

b-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Ju

n-0

4

Au

g-0

4

Oc

t-0

4

De

c-0

4

Pea

k (M

W)

Normal Forecast (MW) Extreme Forecast (MW)

12

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

5-M

ay-0

2

11-A

ug-02

17-N

ov-02

23-F

eb-0

3

1-Ju

n-03

7-Sep

-03

14-D

ec-0

3

21-M

ar-0

4

27-J

un-04

3-Oct

-04

9-Ja

n-05

Ho

url

y P

ea

k D

em

an

d (

MW

)

Weather Corrected Actual

Extreme Weather

Mild Weather

Actual

Normal Weather Forecast

Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast


13

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

5-M

ay-0

2

11-A

ug-02

17-N

ov-02

23-F

eb-0

3

1-Ju

n-03

7-Sep

-03

14-D

ec-0

3

21-M

ar-0

4

27-J

un-04

3-Oct

-04

9-Ja

n-05

Ho

url

y P

ea

k D

em

an

d (

MW

)

Weather Corrected Actual

Extreme Weather

Mild Weather

Actual




14

Weather ScenariosNovember to March

Weather ScenariosNovember to March

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

222-N

ov-0

3

9-N

ov-0

3

16-N

ov-0

3

23-N

ov-0

3

30-N

ov-0

3

7-D

ec-0

3

14-D

ec-0

3

21-D

ec-0

3

28-D

ec-0

3

4-J

an

-04

11-J

an

-04

18-J

an

-04

25-J

an

-04

1-F

eb

-04

8-F

eb

-04

15-F

eb

-04

22-F

eb

-04

29-F

eb

-04

7-M

ar-

04

14-M

ar-

04

21-M

ar-

04

28-M

ar-

04

TH

I (°

C )

Extreme Weather

Normal Less 1 LFU


Normal Plus 1 LFU

15

Weather Scenarios & 2001-02November to March


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2-N

ov-

03

9-N

ov-

03

16-N

ov-

03

23-N

ov-

03

30-N

ov-

03

7-D

ec-0

3

14-D

ec-0

3

21-D

ec-0

3

28-D

ec-0

3

4-Ja

n-0

4

11-J

an-0

4

18-J

an-0

4

25-J

an-0

4

1-F

eb-0

4

8-F

eb-0

4

15-F

eb-0

4

22-F

eb-0

4

29-F

eb-0

4

7-M

ar-0

4

14-M

ar-0

4

21-M

ar-0

4

28-M

ar-0

4

TH

I (°C

)

2001-02

16



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2-N

ov-

03

9-N

ov-

03

16-N

ov-

03

23-N

ov-

03

30-N

ov-

03

7-D

ec-0

3

14-D

ec-0

3

21-D

ec-0

3

28-D

ec-0

3

4-Ja

n-0

4

11-J

an-0

4

18-J

an-0

4

25-J

an-0

4

1-F

eb-0

4

8-F

eb-0

4

15-F

eb-0

4

22-F

eb-0

4

29-F

eb-0

4

7-M

ar-0

4

14-M

ar-0

4

21-M

ar-0

4

28-M

ar-0

4

TH

I (°C

)

2002-03

17

Forecast DemandsForecast Demands

Normal Peak(MW)

ExpectedSeasonal Peak

(MW)

Extreme Peak(MW)

Summer 2003 23,696 25,852 26,408

Winter2003/2004

24,154 25,452 26,166

Summer 2004 24,047 26,195 26,665

Season

Normal Weather Peak (MW)

Expected Seasonal Peak (MW)

Extreme Weather Peak (MW)

Winter 2004 24,054 25,317 26,023Summer 2004 23,835 25,995 26,469Winter 2005 24,181 25,369 26,150

18

ResourcesResources

19

Existing Resources: TotalExisting Resources: Total

* Bruce “A” units not included

Capacity(MW)

Fuel Type

10,836 Nuclear7,546 Coal4,364 Oil / Gas7,669 Hydroelectric

66 Miscellaneous

30,481 MWat 94 stations

Number of

Stations45

22612

Capacity(MW)

Fuel Type

10,836 Nuclear7,546 Coal4,364 Oil / Gas7,682 Hydroelectric

66 Miscellaneous

30,494 MWat 94 stations

Number of

Stations45

22612

20

New Generation ProjectsNew Generation Projects

• No additional Pickering A units are scheduled to be returned to service during the Outlook period.

(in Outlook period and currently under construction)

Proponent/Project NameCapacity

MWConnection Applicant's

Estimated I/S DateBruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G4 770 April 2003*Bruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G3 770 June 2003*ATCO - Brighton Beach 578 March 2004Imperial Oil 98 April 2004Total 2216* estimated restart date.

Proponent/Project Name Capacity MWConnection Applicant's

Estimated I/S DateBruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G4 770 MW October 2003 *

Bruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G3 770 MW November 2003 *

Imperial Oil 98 MW April 2004

ATCO - Brighton Beach 578 MW May 2004

Total for Study Period 2,216 MW

* estimated restart date

21

Resource ScenariosResource Scenarios

Existing Resource Scenario

• all existing resources one Pickering-A unit is included

• no new generation project additions

• 0 MW of price sensitive demand

Planned Resource Scenario

• all existing resourcesone Pickering-A unit is included

• new generation project additions

• 300 MW of price sensitive demand

22

Polling QuestionPolling Question

• On average what level of resources do you expect will materialize over the next 18 months?• (a) less than assumed under ERS

• (b) about the same as assumed under ERS

• (c ) more than ERS, but less than PRS

• (d) about the same as assumed under PRS

• (e) more than assumed under PRS

23

Available and Required ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario

Available and Required ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario

Ontario Market Demand

(Normal Weather)

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004Week Ending

MW

Required Resources Existing Resource Scenario

Available ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005Week Ending

MW

Required Resources Existing Resource Scenario

Available ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario

24

Available and Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario

Available and Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario


(Normal Weather)

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004Week Ending

MW

Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario

Available ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005Week Ending

MW

Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario

Available ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario

25

Reserve Margins: Planned Resource Scenario

Reserve Margins: Planned Resource Scenario


(Normal Weather)

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004

Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]


Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources


-7,000

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005

Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]



26

Reserve Margins: Existing Resource Scenario and


Reserve Margins: Existing Resource Scenario and



(Normal Weather)

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000


Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]




-7,000

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005

Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]




27

Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather Existing Resource Scenario and


Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather Existing Resource Scenario and



(Normal Weather)

Extreme weather is not expected every week

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000


Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]




-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004

Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]




28

Sources of RiskSources of Risk

• Demand uncertainty (RR)

• Forced outage rate of resources (RR)

• New generation projects coming into service (ERS, PRS)

• Return of generators from planned outage (ERS, PRS, +)

• Hydroelectric resource utilization (RR,+)

• Extreme weather impact (separate scenarios,+)

29

TransmissionTransmission

30

TransmissionTransmission

• Some outages impact internal and inter-tie limits (appendix C of main document)

• Windsor, Toronto and Thunder Bay reactive supply

31

Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

Normal Weather Extreme Weather

Existing Resources - many plannedoutages at risk

- imports requiredfor much of thestudy period

- most plannedoutages at risk

- imports maximizedduring peak periods

- risk of insufficientsupply

Planned Resources - opportunities foradditionaloutages/exports

- occasional importsmay be required

- many plannedoutages at risk

- imports requiredduring peak periods


Existing Resources - many plannedoutages at risk

- imports requiredfor much of thestudy period

- most plannedoutages at risk

- imports maximizedduring peak periods

- risk of insufficientsupply

Planned Resources - opportunities foradditionaloutages/exports

- occasional importsmay be required

- many plannedoutages at risk

- imports requiredduring peak periods


Existing Resources

- many planned outages atrisk

- imports required for much ofthe study period

- most planned outages at risk- imports maximized during peak periods- risk of insufficient supply

Planned Resources

- periods with opportunitiesfor additionaloutages/exports

- some periods where importsmay be required

- many planned outages at risk- imports required during peak

periods

32

•End of presentation

1 18-Month Outlook October 2003 - March 2005 Presented by Greg Hine IMO Long-Term Forecasts and Assessments.

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