1 1 Theater Security Cooperation (TSC) Planning (TSCP) (excerpt from PCAS presentation July 11, 2005) Nazli Choucri 1 , Stuart E. Madnick 2 , Michael D. Siegel 3 1 Political Science Department 2 Sloan School of Management & School of Engineering 3 Sloan School of Management {nchoucri, smadnick, msiegel} @ mit.edu
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1 1 Theater Security Cooperation ( TSC) Planning (TSCP) (excerpt from PCAS presentation July 11, 2005) Nazli Choucri 1, Stuart E. Madnick 2, Michael D.
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Theater Security Cooperation (TSC) Planning
(TSCP)
(excerpt from PCAS presentation July 11, 2005)
Nazli Choucri1, Stuart E. Madnick2, Michael D. Siegel31 Political Science Department
2 Sloan School of Management & School of Engineering3 Sloan School of Management
{nchoucri, smadnick, msiegel} @ mit.edu
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What is TSC*?What is TSC*?
Those activities Combatant Commanders conduct with foreign allies and friends to:
– Build defense relationships that promote specific US strategic interests
– Develop allied and friendly capabilities for self-defense and coalition operations, including allied transformation
– Improve information exchange and intelligence sharing to help harmonize views on security challenges
– Provide US forces with peacetime and contingency access and en route infrastructure
• Build defense relationships to improve interoperability to improve– Learning, building trust, working together
• Develop allied and friendly capabilities by improving their allocation of resources for– Training troops– Assignment of officers– Intelligence gathering
• Combine dynamics and political stability to assist planning (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE)
Dynamic & Interdependent Behavior of Planning Activities
Planning BPlanning X Planning A
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Value of Studying the Dynamics of the TSCP Planning Process - Examples
• “Software project dynamics: an integrated approach” – Tarek Abdel-Hamid & Stuart Madnick – Complexity and Tradeoffs in Planning Large-Scale Software
Projects, especially government systems
• “Strategic management of complex projects: a case study using system dynamics” - James M. Lyneis - Case study of the Peace Shield Air Defense System
• “Modeling intergovernmental cooperation: A system dynamics approach” - Laura Black - Model of collaboration, trust building, and knowledge sharing in a complex, intergovernmental information system project. 6
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Build defense relationships to improve interoperability
• Joint exercises are an important tool for- Building defense relations- Improving interoperability
PlannedExercises
InteroperabilitySkills
New ExercisesPlanned
DoingExercises Building Skills
Loss ofInteroperability
+
Time to LoseInteroperability
-
IndicatedImprovement Desired
Interoperability
+
-
+
B
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But much more is going on …
PlannedExercises
InteroperabilitySkills
ExperienceParticipating
in JointPlanning
New ExercisesPlanned
DoingExercises Building Skills
Loss ofInteroperability
Participation inJoint Exercise
Decay ofExperience
+
Time to LoseInteroperability
-
IndicatedExercise Rate
DesiredCompletion Time
+
ResourcesAvailable
NormalExercise Rate
SchedulePressure
+
Time Spent inJoint Planning
-
Time SpentConductingExercises
+
+
+
Effectiveness ofExercises in Skill
Building
+
+
Decay Time
-
IndicatedImprovement Desired
Interoperability
+
-
+
+
BR
B
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Develop Allied and Friendly Capabilities
• Better understanding of implications of allocation of resources for– Training activities– Military Leadership– Intelligence sharing
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Officer Allocation Policy• Allocation policy has resulted in unequal
distribution of officer talent between North and South.
• Officer talent in the South can affect the mix of anti-insurgency activities.
• Short-term solutions respond to violence and insurgency.
• Long-term solutions build trust with local communities (example: Marine Corps Combined Action Program).
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Officer Quality Policy
Building Trust Assignment ofTroops to Trust
Building
TroopsResponding to
Violence
Assignment of Troopsto Respond to
Violence
+
-
Frequency ofViolence
Indicated Troopsin Field
Gap
+
+
-
+
Trust
-
SendingCommanders to
South
+
Fraction of HighlyQualified Commanders
in South
Preference forShort-termSolutions
Effectiveness ofTrust Building
+
+ +
-
-
R
B
B
+
+
+
R
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Officer Allocation Policy
• Officer allocation can skew mix toward short-term solutions at the expense of a long-term optimal mix.
• Trust and relations suffer, so violence is more likely.
• Despite continued increases in troops, frequency of violence chronically increases.
• “Unintended consequences” of the allocation policy exacerbate the problem.
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Disaggregating TSCP Activities: Combine dynamics and political stability (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE)