1 1 The Mekong basin development planning process Ton Lennaerts CTA Basin Development Plan Programme JRP training 8 June 2012.

1 1

The Mekong basin development planning process

Ton Lennaerts

CTA Basin Development Plan Programme

The Mekong basin development planning process

Ton Lennaerts

CTA Basin Development Plan Programme

JRP training 8 June 2012

The BDP ProgrammeThe BDP Programme

A participatory, multi-sector and integrated planning A participatory, multi-sector and integrated planning process that is led by the MRC Member Countries process that is led by the MRC Member Countries and implemented at the regional, national and sub-and implemented at the regional, national and sub-

basin levels basin levels

BackgroundBackground

The BDP Story The BDP Story The BDP Story The BDP Story

Provides an overview of basin development planning since the Second World War

Many planning reports were produced but little water infrastructure got built in the Mekong basin compared to other river basins

In industrialized countries, the best projects were completed before societal values shifted and major emphasis was placed on achieving environmental objectives

As a result, there are strong pressures today on the Mekong countries to adopt a different development path to growth than industrial countries have taken

This is a path largely untrodden and a challenge for the BDP Programme

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Start of a new era of Mekong Cooperation:

Cooperate in all fields…but not limited to…hydropower, irrigation, fisheries…

Development of full potential of sustainable benefits for all Member Countries.....through formulation of a Basin Development Plan

Prevent harmful effects on the environment and the ecology

Enabled by water utilization procedures and monitoring systems e.g. Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement of significant projects

The 1995 Mekong AgreementThe 1995 Mekong Agreement

The Agreement is about cooperation on balancing basin development and protection. The BDP is a primary The BDP is a primary instrument for this cooperationinstrument for this cooperation

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Mekong development: meeting the Mekong development: meeting the needs, keeping the balanceneeds, keeping the balance

‘Complex hydrology’ and limited investments in water management and infrastructure often correlates with widespread poverty around the world

Unique biodiversity and large fisheries on which millions of people in Mekong Basin depend

Much of the Mekong Basin remains among the poorest regions - malnutrition poses great challenges

Increasing demand for water resources Increasing demand for water resources development to reduce poverty and development to reduce poverty and support an increasing populationsupport an increasing population

Storage

Development plans of LMB countries Development plans of LMB countries Development plans of LMB countries Development plans of LMB countries

UMDDF

20Y w/o MD20Y w/o LMD20Y w/o TMD20Y w/o CMD

20-Year Plan Scenario

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Definite Future

Scenario

Drivers of the LMB countries’ Drivers of the LMB countries’ deveIopment plansdeveIopment plans

Drivers of the LMB countries’ Drivers of the LMB countries’ deveIopment plansdeveIopment plans

• China Created upstream storage Investments in LMB (energy, agriculture, other)

• Lao PDR GDP growth through hydro-electricity exports (example: Panama)

example) (mitigation of climate change)

• Cambodia Generation and transmission of cheaper electricity Expansion and intensification of agriculture

• Viet Nam Developed most of its hydropower and irrigated agriculture Management of saline intrusion and flood damage

BDP1 (2001-2006) set up the processBDP1 (2001-2006) set up the processBDP1 (2001-2006) set up the processBDP1 (2001-2006) set up the process

Started 6 years (!) after the signing of the 1995 Agreement It developed a participatory process, tools, strategic directions,

and lists of non controversial projects

BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered the planthe plan

BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered the planthe plan

Had to move beyond process: by 2007 water resources development was accelerating

Conducted a basin-wide cumulative Conducted a basin-wide cumulative impact assessment of the basin impact assessment of the basin countries’ national planscountries’ national plans, with and without consideration of climate change impacts (reported in 14 volumes)

Some characteristics of the process and examples of results are presented on the next slides

The assessment of basin-wide The assessment of basin-wide development scenariosdevelopment scenarios

Balancing development and protectionBalancing development and protection

Responsible Growth

Agreeing on an acceptable balanceAgreeing on an acceptable balanceAgreeing on an acceptable balanceAgreeing on an acceptable balance

Using a basin-wide integrated assessment framework:

Basin-wide development scenarios assessed the cumulative environmental, social and economic impacts of national development plans and alternative perspectives

SEA of mainstream hydropower dams analyzed opportunities and risks

The MRC facilitated dialogue and negotiations on costs and benefits, and builds consensus on an acceptable balance between water resources development and protection

Three-year process; all stakeholders involved through meetings, surveys, workshops, conferences, forums, etc.

Scenarios consideredScenarios considered

13Foreseeable Future and Longer Term Future Scenarios were assessed with and without consideration of climate change impacts

Main features of Main features of considered scenariosconsidered scenarios

Main features of Main features of considered scenariosconsidered scenarios

Scenarios are defined by the level of land and water resources development in the Mekong Basin, including irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial water supply and significant flood management measures

Level of developments is derived from national plans, sector reviews and trends

Input data are reviewed and verified with the member countries

BLUMDDF20Y w/o MD20Y w/o LMD20Y w/o TMD20Y w/o CMD20Y with all MDLTDVHD

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Assessment Assessment criteriacriteria

Comprise 12 specific development objectives within economic, environmental and social spheres

A total of 42 assessment indicators have been identified and assessed within the framework

In addition, equity is evaluated

Scope of assessment is NOT to endorse specific projects 15

Assessment approachAssessment approachAssessment approachAssessment approach Based on the concept of IWRM that holds the

promise of reconciling goals of economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental sustainability

Used transparent data sets, proven models and impact analytical tools and a multi-disciplinary expert team

Stakeholder participation has been carried out along the whole process at sub-area, national and regional levels

The scenarios were assessed on hydrological changes and results fed into the assessment of the transboundary economic, social and environmental impacts

The results were discussed at national level and broader stakeholder

Scenarios that are beneficial to all LMB countries and sustainable from a basin perspective, were considered as preferred scenarios

Scoping and formulation

Collection of input data

Modelling of hydrological changes

Assessment of transboundary

environmental, social and economic impacts

Evaluation and discussion of

preferred scenarios

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17Hydrological changes and physical impacts caused by interventions were assessed for Hydrological changes and physical impacts caused by interventions were assessed for their environmental and economic impacts and thence their social impacts their environmental and economic impacts and thence their social impacts

Scenario design and assumptions

Key output data for indicator assessment

Intermediate analyses

Physical impacts

Physical impacts

Energy production

hydropower

Navigation incremental boat traffic

Flood damages incremental values

Agricultural production

incremental values

Land use changes

induced by hydrological change and flood control

Sediment and geomorphology

changes induced by

hydrological change

Agricultural productivity incremental yields

Bank erosion incremental areas

Environmental changes

in wetlands, deep pools and habitats induced by

hydrological change

Pollutants & WQ indicative changes

Hydrological assessment of

scenariosinduced by interventions

and climate change

TemporalSpatialSalinity

Ecosytems and biodiversity

indicative changes

Fisheries production

incremental areas

Economic impacts

NPV etc

Employment impacts

Jobs created/lost

Social impacts Health food & income

scurity

National plans

Development proposals

Climate change

Development scenarios

Baseline

Definite futureForeseeable future

Long-termetc

Main assumptions

Prices, consumption, demography etc

Overview of assessment methodology and processes

Legend

Irrigated areas

incremental values

Impacts on fish migration

induced by barriers and flow changes

Each of the linkages will be taken into

account in the assessment

process

Each of the linkages will be taken into

account in the assessment

process

Integrated approachIntegrated approach

The tools The tools The tools The tools

Knowledge Base

Planning and monitoring data such as:

•hydrological records

•physical data •socio-economic and environmental data •scenario description data•simulation model input data•simulation model results

MRC Decision Support Framework (DSF)

DSF User Interface and Tools

Basin Simulation Modelling Package

SWATSWAT

IQQMIQQM

ISISISIS

Impact Analysis Tools

Reporting Tools

Precipitation

Infiltration

Evaporation and transpiration

Run off to streams

Return flowsLosses to deep groundwater

Drainage

System storage

Hydropower

Water supply

Irrigation

SWAT

IQQM

Isis18

The Tools (2)The Tools (2)The Tools (2)The Tools (2)

GIS for spatial integration and quantitative assessment

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Flooded area

Wetlands

Chiang Sean

Chiang Khan

Vientiane

Mukdahan

Pakse

Prek Kdam

Tan ChauChau Doc

Luang Prabang

Kampong Luong

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Nakhon Phanom

StrungtengKratie

Flow changes in the Mekong mainstreamFlow changes in the Mekong mainstream

Changes in river bed and bank erosionChanges in river bed and bank erosionChanges in river bed and bank erosionChanges in river bed and bank erosion

Chiang Saen

Nong Khai Pakse

Strungteng

Delta

Cause:Reduction of sediment entering to Mekong mainstream

Alluvial

Alluvial

Bedrock

Bedrock

No major change in bedrock reaches Sandbars from Nong Kai to Pakse are readily

erodible and river bed may begin to fall within next 20 years

Some sediment loss may occur immediately downstream of Kratie and changes in Delta will be visible in the long term, including coastal erosion21

Changes in water qualityChanges in water quality

In the longer term total agro-chemical use more or less triples compared to the present use.

Water quality in the mainstream will deteriorate, but due to the increase in dry season flows and the river’s high self purifying capacity water quality will remain within standards

Locally, mainly in the Delta downstream of Phnom Penh, problems may emerge

N Loss per catchment (ton/y)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Present

20YP

LTD

VHD

Herbicide use (ton/y)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Lao Thailand Cambodia Vietnam

Present

20 Year Plan

LTD

VHD

Reduction of valuable wetlandsReduction of valuable wetlandsReduction of valuable wetlandsReduction of valuable wetlands

2323

Inundated forests Inundated grasslands

Incremental values are compared with Baseline scenario Unit:ha

Marshes/seasonal wetlands

Loss of valuable wetland due to reduced flooding particularly in Definite Future Scenario

The reduced area significant in Cambodia (mainly around Tonle Sap Lake ) followed by Lao and Thailand

Climate change will reverse the reduction of flooded areas and wetlands

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Station BL(2000)

DF(2015)

20Y(2030)

LTD(2060)

Lao PDR 17,035 ↓-4,867 ↓-5,860 ↓-5,570(29%) (34%) (33%)

Thailand 61,696 ↓-9,317 ↓-11,184 ↓-10,683(15%) (18%) (17%)

Cambodia 1,287,749 ↓-20,979 ↓-31,112 ↓-38,515(1.6%) (2.4%) (3.0%)

Viet Nam 100,614 ↓-42 ↓-144 ↓-648(0.0%) (0.1%) (0.6%)

Impact on environment hotspotsImpact on environment hotspotsImpact on environment hotspotsImpact on environment hotspots 32 environmental hotspots identified:

Ramsar sites, biosphere reserves, protected areas, Important Bird Areas (IBA’s)

Major causes are

Definite Future Change in flow and flood patterns

Foreseeable Future and Long term Change in sedimentation, nutrient and

water quality Change in wetland habitats (deep pools,

sandbars and rapids) and productivity Blockage of migration route Climate change

High impact by proposed developments in the 20-Year Plan Scenario with all 11 LMB mainstream dams 24

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20-Year Plan Scenario with 11 mainstream dams

20-Year Plan Scenario without mainstream dams

Low

Medium

High

Low

Medium

High

25

26

Deep pool

Pak Beng

Luang Prabang

Xayaburi

Pak Lai

Sanakram

Pak Chom

Ban Kum

Strungteng

Sambor

Donsahong

Fish migration

routeThe scenario assessments estimate the loss of capture fisheries productivity

SEA of mainstream dams identifies mitigation and enhancement measures

Fish Expert Group discusses possible technologies and mitigation measures

Impacts on fishImpacts on fish

Impact on capture fisheries yieldImpact on capture fisheries yield

Capture fisheries yield is estimated based on habitats: river-floodplain, rain-fed and permanent water including reservoirs

Yield will either increase or decrease in rain-fed areas which depend on management practice while in reservoirs, yield will increase

Reduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barriers, flow changes, habitat loss

Major losses in capture fisheries yield caused by the proposed two mainstream dams in Cambodia

These losses are particularly severe in Cambodia and Viet Nam Delta

Thailand

Cambodia

Viet Nam Delta

Lao PDRViet Nam Highland

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Social assessment: exposed vulnerable Social assessment: exposed vulnerable resource users (‘000 livelihoods at riskresource users (‘000 livelihoods at risk)

Net economic benefitsNet economic benefits The net economic benefits in the

various 20-Year Plan Scenarios are large and mainly derived from the development of hydropower

But there would be also significant benefits in irrigated agriculture, reservoir and rice filed fisheries and some in navigation

Main negative impacts are in loss of capture fisheries, wetland area production, biodiversity forest and recession rice

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0

5

10

15

20

DF 20Y 20Y w /oMD

20Y w /oLMD

20Y w /oTMD

NPV

US$

billio

n

Lao PDR

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

Lao PDR would gain most, mainly from hydropower production, but others would also benefit both as producers and consumers of electricity

Cambodia would benefit less than other countries, due to adverse impacts on capture fisheries

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Defi

nit

e

Fu

ture

20-

Yea

r P

lan

w/o

MD

20-

Yea

r P

lan

w/o

LM

D

20-

Yea

r P

lan

w/o

TM D

20-

Yea

r P

lan

w/o

CM

D

20-

Yea

r P

lan

wit

h a

ll 1

1 M

D

20-

Yea

r P

lan

+

Clim

ate

Ch

an

ge

Lo

ng

Term

Deve

lop

men

t

Lo

ng

Term

Deve

lop

men

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+ C

lim

ate

Ch

an

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Very

Hig

h

Deve

lop

men

t

Hydropower 11,491 17,603 25,002 28,706 30,333 32,823 32,823 37,865 37,865 38,787

Irrigated Agriculture 0 1,659 1,659 1,659 1,659 1,659 1,659 4,268 4,268 16,129

Reservoir Fisheries 91 107 132 202 169 215 215 420 420 473

Aquaculture 1,129 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,892 1,892 2,522

Capture Fisheries Losses

-946 -732 -952 -1,914 -1,218 -1,936 -1,936 -1,818 -1,818 -1,801

Wetland Area Reduction

-228 -176 -178 -225 -178 -225 101 -260 36 -310

Eco-hotspots/Biodiversity

-85 -220 -240 -330 -305 -330 -415 -435 -525 -700

Forests -153 -183 -228 -349 -254 -372 -372 -731 -731 -822

Recession Rice -144 -173 -175 -178 -176 -178 278 -226 185 -274

Flood Mitigation 461 360 360 360 360 377 -273 408 -296 432

Saline Area Reduction 20 25 23 21 23 27 -2 22 -2 16

Riverbank Erosion 0 n n n n n n n n n

Navigation 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64

Total LMB 11,700 19,596 26,729 29,277 31,739 33,386 33,404 41,469 41,359 54,516

Lao PDR 6,595 11,688 17,636 18,927 22,632 22,588 22,604 26,401 26,501 29,608

Thailand 1,095 2,750 3,913 3,970 4,223 4,410 4,445 5,011 5,097 6,351

Cambodia 693 1,446 1,351 2,237 1,143 2,237 2,628 5,302 5,470 13,134

Vietnam 3,317 3,711 3,828 4,142 3,741 4,151 3,727 4,755 4,292 5,423

Total LMB 11,700 19,596 26,729 29,277 31,739 33,386 33,404 41,469 41,359 54,516

Comparison of economic NPV by sector and country Comparison of economic NPV by sector and country (in ‘000 US$)(in ‘000 US$)

Some conclusionsSome conclusionsSome conclusionsSome conclusions

There is considerable scope for further basin development that can improve water, energy, and food security in the region

The natural dry season flow regime can be protected through the MRC Procedure on the Maintenance of the Flows on the Mainstream (PMFM) and and continue to meet the important and essential environmental and social needs

BLUMDDF20Y w/o MD

20Y w/o LMD

20Y w/o TMD

20Y w/o CMD

20Y with all MD

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Transboundary benefits Transboundary benefits and costsand costs

Transboundary benefits Transboundary benefits and costsand costs

The assessment demonstrated the considerable interplay (nexus) between water, energy, food, environmental and climate security

With coordinated national planning, benefits can be created for all countries.

A few examples are given in the next slides

Example 1: Synergy between hydropower and irrigation development plans (20-year plan secnario)

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Risk is small during the next 20 years that the redistributed water from the wet to the dry season by hydropower development is not sufficient to source the irrigation developments that are being planned

Transboundary benefit sharing in these two sectors amounts to $7,000 million

The natural dry season The natural dry season flow regime can be flow regime can be protected protected

Key assumptions

UMB dams in place by 2015 100% LMB dams found viable 100% Proportion of Thai irrigation from diversions/lift 95%

UMB dams in place by 2020 100% UMB dam performance 100% Proportion of Lao irrigation dependent upon dams 35%

Water balance at Tang Chau for average monthly flow in March, MCMCompared to baseline, shows incremental flow augmentation from UMB and LMB dams against incremental abstractions for irrigation and water supply

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

LMB dams

China dams

Viet Nam irrig.

Cambodia irrig.

Lao irrigation

Thai irrigation

Water supply

2060 set at Very High Development

2060

2010

2030

2030

Example 2: Trade-off beween hydropower Example 2: Trade-off beween hydropower development plans and capture fisheriesdevelopment plans and capture fisheries

Yield will either increase or decrease in rain-fed areas which depend on management practice while in reservoirs, yield will increase

Reduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barriers, flow changes, habitat loss

The lower of the proposed eleven mainstream dams have the largest impact on LMB’s capture fisheries.

Regional capture fisheries net cost due to hydropower development amounts to $1,700 million in the 20-year plan scenario

ThailandCambodia

Viet Nam Delta

Lao PDRViet Nam Highland

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Example 3: Synergy between climate Example 3: Synergy between climate change and environmental valueschange and environmental values

35

In the 20-year and long-term scenarios, climate change reverses the reduction of flooding caused by ongoing and planned development

Climate change would benefit environmental values (by $240 million), increase recession rice production (by $450 million) but all of this will be offset by increased flood damages (by $650 million)

The IWRM-based Basin Development Strategy

Responsible Growth

Basin Development Strategy (adopted Basin Development Strategy (adopted January 2012)January 2012)

Basin Development Strategy (adopted Basin Development Strategy (adopted January 2012)January 2012)

37

Based on the assessment results of the basin-wide scenarios and the SEA of the proposed LMB mainstream dams, and the associated stakeholder consultations

For the first time since the 1995 Mekong Agreement, the countries have arrived at: An understanding of each other’s water-related plans

discussed the likely transboundary impacts of their plans

Developed a shared understanding of the water-related development opportunities and risks

Negotiated the Basin Development Strategy

The Strategy describes The Strategy describes

The Strategy describes The Strategy describes

• Development opportunitiesDevelopment opportunities to improve water, food and energy security

• 15 Strategic Priorities15 Strategic Priorities

For Basin Development For Basin Management

To: Address knowledge gaps and move identified

development opportunities to implementation Broaden and strengthen the basin planning

framework

• A Roadmap for implementation A Roadmap for implementation 38

• How the MRC member countries will share, utlize, manage and conserve How the MRC member countries will share, utlize, manage and conserve the watre and related resources of the Mekong to achieve the goals of the watre and related resources of the Mekong to achieve the goals of the 1995 Mekong Agreementthe 1995 Mekong Agreement

Wide stakeholder engagement Wide stakeholder engagement throughout the basin planning processthroughout the basin planning processWide stakeholder engagement Wide stakeholder engagement throughout the basin planning processthroughout the basin planning process

Implementation of the Strategy is underway at Implementation of the Strategy is underway at the regional and national level and will: the regional and national level and will:

Implementation of the Strategy is underway at Implementation of the Strategy is underway at the regional and national level and will: the regional and national level and will:

• Reduce knowledge gaps (fisheries, sediments, ecosystems)

• Address the adverse impacts of ongoing development

• Develop a Mekong multi-sector mechanism for transboundary cost and benefit sharing

• Develop environmental and socio-economic baselines

• Bring regional and national planning ‘closer together’

• Broaden the current basin-wide scenarios to assess how regional benefits can be increased and regional costs reduced

• Strengthen regional cooperation on basin planning and the implementation of the MRC Procedures

The future of te BDP The future of te BDP

Responsible Growth

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The future of BDPThe future of BDP

The BDP will act as the instrument for impact analysis and consultation

Much of future basin development can and should be undertaken at the national level

The BDP will explore ways to achieve transboundary benefits and mitigate transboundary costs, through the adaptation and modification of national investments.

There are almost certainly transboundary opportunities, where two or more LMB countries could develop joint projects that provide substantive benefits that can be shared.

The only mandated instrument for identifying and promoting such opportunities is the BDP

Unilateral Action

Joint Action

Coordination

Collaboration

Cooperation Continuum

•Communication & notification

•Information sharing

•Regional assessments

•Adapt national plans Adapt national plans to mitigate regional to mitigate regional costscosts

•Adapt national plans Adapt national plans to capture regional to capture regional gainsgains

•Identify, negotiate & Identify, negotiate & implement national implement national investments that investments that capture cooperative capture cooperative gainsgains

•Joint institutions

•Joint project assessment & design

•Joint investment

•Joint ownership of assets

Dispute Integration

The basin planning process is bringing transboundary The basin planning process is bringing transboundary cooperation and national process to the next higher cooperation and national process to the next higher levellevel

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THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU