Retail Bulletin Featured in this issue: Our latest news 2 Central London Retail Development Map 3 Where is the intrinsic value from a good tenant mix? 4 Pop-up retail trend 5 It’s the people, stupid! 6 The National Planning Practice Guidance 7 MUD glorious MUD 8 Retail statistics 10 Jason Sibthorpe Senior Director Head of Retail +44 (0) 20 7911 2740 [email protected]Spring 2014 As the retail market continues to be challenging with footfall down over the important Easter trading period it remains fundamental for retailers to implement robust and innovative portfolio solutions to respond to operational pressures. Failure to be proactive and effective can cause catastrophic consequences. GVA is delighted to be able to offer holistic service capabilities to all of our occupier clients with a focus on some herein. In this bulletin we cover a number of topics including the increasing relevance of pop-ups, securing the right tenant mix and developers responding to personalised shopping experience via mixed-use development. We hope you find all the features of interest and look forward to doing business with you. To kick-start the arrival of Spring, GVA Retail is attending ‘Completely Retail Marketplace’ on the 29th April. Come and meet us at stand 60 to see how we can help you with your next steps in the UK retail market. If you wish to arrange a specific meeting, please do not hesitate to contact us. 1
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Retail Bulletin
Featured in this issue:Our latest news 2
Central London Retail Development Map 3
Where is the intrinsic value from a good tenant mix? 4
Pop-up retail trend 5
It’s the people, stupid! 6
The National Planning Practice Guidance 7
MUD glorious MUD 8
Retail statistics 10
Jason SibthorpeSenior DirectorHead of Retail+44 (0) 20 7911 [email protected]
Spring 2014
As the retail market continues to be challenging with footfall down over the important Easter trading period it remains fundamental for retailers to implement robust and innovative portfolio solutions to respond to operational pressures. Failure to be proactive and effective can cause catastrophic consequences.
GVA is delighted to be able to offer holistic service capabilities to all of our occupier clients with a focus on some herein. In this bulletin we cover a number of topics including the increasing relevance of pop-ups, securing the right tenant mix and developers responding to personalised shopping experience via mixed-use development.
We hope you find all the features of interest and look forward to doing business with you.
To kick-start the arrival of Spring, GVA Retail is attending ‘Completely Retail Marketplace’ on the 29th April.
Come and meet us at stand 60 to see how we can help you with your next steps in the UK retail market. If you wish to arrange a specific meeting, please do not hesitate to contact us.
1
We are pleased to have selected GVA as our property advisers going forward, in what will be a busy and interesting 12-18 months for the Auntie Anne’s brand in the UK and have already seen a positive insight in to GVA’s approach and capabilities. We look forward to working with GVA to develop this exciting, unique brand into all corners of the UK.
Max Burton, Head of Property,
Auntie Anne’s Pretzels
Cattlegrid RestaurantsGVA has let a unit adjacent to Earlsfield Station in London to Cattlegrid Restaurants. The deal comprises a 25 year lease for a 2,900 sq ft unit at a rent of £90,000 per annum, bringing high quality casual dining to this affluent South West London suburb.
The Master & MargaritaFollowing an extensive marketing effort GVA concluded a 5,700 sq ft letting to contemporary Indian restaurant and cocktail bar The Master & Margarita in The Cube, Birmingham. The rent is £69,000 per annum on a new lease.
Premier InnGVA has exchanged an Agreement for Lease for a 100 room Premier Inn Hotel in our client’s mixed-use development in Addlestone, Surrey. With a rent of £4,500 per annum per room.
SeasaltGVA has been instructed to assist Seasalt with new store acquisitions in coastal locations and affluent market towns. This lifestyle fashion chain, established in Cornwall, already has stores trading in Cornwall, Guernsey, the Isles of Scilly and West Sussex.
Help for HeroesGVA is instructed to assist with a national store acquisition programme for Help for Heroes. The charity has reinvented the definition of “charity shop”, opening up unique bright, colourful and friendly shops selling Help for Heroes new branded clothing, accessories and gifts. Stores already trade in St David’s, Cardiff, Lakeside, Essex and Meadowhall, Sheffield.
HavaianasTrading their third season in mid-mall kiosks and pop-ups, GVA has acquired 17 new locations for Havaianas. New stores include sites in Westfield London and Stratford, Bluewater, Lakeside, Meadowhall, Kingston, Bromley, Watford and Brighton.
Mint VelvetFollowing recent acquisitions for Mint Velvet, GVA has secured new shops in Berkhamsted and Cambridge with a further two locations to complete shortly.
Musto GVA has acquired a new store for Musto, the outdoor and sailing clothing company, in Clarks Village Street, Somerset.
PorcelanosaGVA has been instructed to acquire at least three new stores for Porcelanosa in the South East region of the UK. Porcelanosa currently has 22 existing stores across the UK, but are now looking to expand and acquire new units on a leasehold basis.
Carluccio’sGVA has advised Carluccio’s on their recent opening at 9-11 Station Square, Harrogate, 12 months after a change of use application was originally rejected.
Trespass Following recent acquisitions, GVA has secured further stores in Lincoln, Buxton, Warrington Newport Retail Park, Parc Trostre Llanelli, High Wycombe and Stevenage on behalf of Trespass.
Gregory Property Group We have secured lettings to Aldi and Iceland at Great Eastern Way Rotherham, a development on behalf of Gregory Property Group.
CBRE Global InvestorsGVA has secured a letting to Farmfoods at Pellon Lane Retail Park, Halifax on behalf of the landlord CBRE Global Investors.
Patisserie ValerieGVA has secured a prominent corner unit of approx. 1,600 sq. ft ground floor in Cheltenham at 208 High Street for Patisserie Valerie.
Auntie Anne’s Pretzels We have been selected by the worlds’ largest soft pretzel retailer Auntie Anne’s Pretzels as sole UK property adviser. Auntie Anne’s currently trade from approximately 30 UK sites with over 1,400 international sites and are part of the larger Focus Brands Group. Plans remain on-going to expand the UK portfolio seeking prime kiosk and small in-line units in shopping centres, high streets, stations and transport hubs.
Lush GVA has acquired a highly prominent unit in Tunbridge Wells for retained client, Lush. A new lease was agreed with landlord Hermes for a unit on the main entrance to the Royal Victoria Place scheme, which also benefits from frontage to Calverley Road.
EDG PropertyGVA has secured a new lease on Unit 2 the School Yard, Harborne, a mixed-use redevelopment of a former Grade II listed Victorian school, to Boston Tea Party, who has agreed to take a new 15 year lease. We acted on behalf of the landlord, EDG Property.
GVA retail news
2
Taking inspiration from the GVA’s London Offices Development Map, GVA’s Retail team has produced a similar map illustrating where future developments with retail and/or leisure elements will take place within London’s West End. Stretching from Marble Arch to Covent Garden, the map also contains spot Zone A values for the major retail pitches, customer exit figures for all the tube stations and the locations of all the best hotels, from where many of London’s luxury consumers emanate. In addition, there is a weighted footfall index, a breakdown of how shopper spend is allocated between residents, workers and tourists and the ownerships of some of London’s biggest retail landlords is highlighted.
Furthermore, the units in all the major retail streets are labeled with their occupiers.
The aim of the map is to help retailers, particularly foreign operators, to get a good overview of the different West End retail pitches. If you do not know London well you may think that walking from Tottenham Court Road tube station to Covent Garden is quite onerous, when in fact it is only half a mile. The map also contains a footfall index, which illustrates, for example, that the footfall in Oxford Street, west of the Circus, is twice as high as it is near Marble Arch. When the second edition of the map is released in the autumn it will be fascinating to compare how rents have changed over the last 12 months in each location, how many new retailers have opened in London’s prime pitches, and where they come from. Certainly foreign retailers’ appetite for London representation shows no signs of abating.
GVA will also be releasing an Occupier’s Guide to accompany the map which will give retailers a full information pack helping them not only to decide where to locate but the necessary steps required to secure and open a store in the UK. This will not only encompass the property challenges but those of shop fitting and staffing as well. As a result, GVA can provide a turnkey service if required.
Since the launch of our retail development map, we have delivered numerous presentations to our clients which have received positive feedback. If you would like to know more or arrange a presentation, please do not hesitate to contact us and we would be delighted to present our findings to you.
Central London Retail Development MapHelping retailers understand the West End market
Zone AOxford Street (Marble Arch) £575Oxford Street (Selfridges) £750Oxford Street (John Lewis) £800Oxford Street (Great Portland) £525Oxford Street (Tottenham Court Rd) £350New Oxford Street £225Regent Street (Top) £600Regent Street (Middle) £725Regent Street (Bottom) £375New Bond Street (Top) £400New Bond Street (Middle) £800New Bond Street (Bottom) £950Old Bond Street £1,000Piccadilly (Regent Street) £260Piccadilly (Burlington) £275Jermyn Street £300Burlington Arcade £850Albermarle Street £200Dover Street £330Bruton Street £315Mount Street £400South Molton Street £425Marylebone High Street £305Carnaby Street £450Long Acre £550James Street £760King Street £550Covent Garden Market £500Kings Rd (East) £420Sloane Street £800Sloane Street (South)/Sloane Square £450 Note:The following streets operate with 30 feet zones:-Oxford, Regent, Bond, Piccadilly, Victoria, Kensington High St
TOTTENHAM COURT ROADEASTERN TICKET HALL
DUE FOR COMPLETION 2017
TOTTENHAM COURT ROADWESTERN TICKET HALL
DUE FOR COMPLETION 2017
BOND STREETWESTERN TICKET HALL
DUE FOR COMPLETION 2016
BOND STREETEASTERN TICKET HALL
DUE FOR COMPLETION 2016
BOND STREETNORTH TICKET HALL
DUE FOR COMPLETION 2016
CLARIDGES HOTELMARRIOTT HOTEL
MARRIOTT HOTEL
MILLENNIUM MAYFAIR HOTEL
THE CONNAUGHTHOTEL
CHARING CROSS
TUBE
COVENT GARDEN
TUBE
TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD TUBE
OXFORD CIRCUS TUBE
BOND STREET TUBE
MARBLE ARCH TUBE
LEICESTER SQUARE
TUBE
8M
18M
40M
12M
20M
20M
11M
17M
10M
50
96
10
100
65
38
75
40
42
49
79
33
26
Source: FSP
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Tourist SpendWorker SpendResident Spend
Spend (£m)
Piccadilly
Sloane Street
Kings Road
Regent Street
Bond Street
East Oxford Street
West Oxford Street
Knightsbridge
Shopper Spend
794 19
1,556 334
1,055 220
521180612
608
881
149
137 90
133
20 183
380 292
332
555
542
Mercer Yard, 6/14 Mercer StreetLandlord: The Mercers Company Size: 42,000 sq ft retail plus 30,000 sq ft of residential Planning approved. Mid 2014 start
27/32 King StreetLandlord: Capital & CountiesSize: 34,000 sq ft retail plus 37 flatsPlanning approved. On site Mid 2014
St James’ Market, 14/22 Regent Street and 52/56 Haymarket Landlord: The Crown EstateSize: 210,000 sq ft of offices and 50,000 sq ft retail Planning approved. On site 2014
Centre Point Tower, 103 New Oxford Street Landlord: AlmacanterSize: 46,000 sq ft retail plus 95 apartments Completion: 2016
111/125 Oxford Street Landlord: Peterson Group Size: 65,000 sq ft of offices, plus 25,000 sq ft retail and 15,000 sq ft residential Planning approved. Completion: 2015
69/89 Oxford Street Landlord: Great Portland Estates Size: 39,000 sq ft retail plus 83,000 sq ft of offices Planning approved. Completion 2016
149/151 Oxford Street Landlord: AXA REIM Ltd Size: 26,000 sq ft of retail and 14,000 sq ft of offices plus 6 apartmentsCompletion: Early 2015
163/167 Oxford Street Landlord: Aviva Size: 68,000 sq ft offices and 17,000 sq ft retail Planning approved
14/40 Oxford Street (Phase 2) Landlord: OrianaSize: 75,000 sq ft retail plus 18 apartments part pre-let to Schuh and Primark.Completion: 2016
70/88 Oxford Street Landlord: Great Portland Estates Size: 20,000 sq ft retail plus 89 flats Planning approved
61/69 Oxford Street Landlord: Dukelease Properties Ltd.Size: 35,00 sq ft of retail (pre-let to Zara) 35,000 sq ft offices and residential.On Site. Completion February 2015
Plaza Shopping Centre, 122 Oxford Street Landlord: Sirosa Libert Ltd Size: 193,000 sq ft of offices and 73,000 sq ft of retail Planning approved. On site 2014
35/50 Rathbone Place Landlord: Great Portland Estates Size: 217,000 sq ft of offices plus 162 apartments, 42,000 sq ft retail Planning approved. Completion: 2016
40 Leicester Square Landlord: Edwardian Group Size: 220,000 sq ft mixed use scheme (hotel, retail, cinema and residential)Timing TBA
48/50 Leicester Square Landlord: Private InvestorSize: 135,000 sq ft offices and 32,000 sq ft of retail On site 2014
82/84 Piccadilly Landlord: British Land Size: 59,000 sq ft of offices and 14,000 sq ft of retail and 15,000 sq ft spa plus 38,000 sq ft pre let to The Kennel ClubPlanning approved
W4. 135/167 Regent Street Landlord: The Crown EstateSize: 140,000 sq ft of offices and 47,000 sq ft of retail (pre let to J. Crew and Watches of Switzerland)Opening Spring 2014
W5, 169/183 Regent Street Landlord: The Crown Estate Size: 150,000 sq ft of offices and 45,000 sq ft of retail Completion 2015
7/10 Hanover Square Landlord: Legal & General Size: 47,000 sq ft of offices and 9,000 sq ft of retail Completion March 2017
64-72 New Bond Street Landlord: Great Portland Estates Size: 250,000 sq ft of offices and 47,000 sq ft of retail Planning approved. Completion 2018
34/36 Bruton Street Landlord: Lancer Size: 12,500 sq ft of offices and 7,500 sq ft of retail Planning approved. On site 2014
354-356 Oxford Street Landlord: ReAssure Limited / LUL.Size: 6,000 sq ft of retail and 11,000 sq ft of residential On Site. Planning approved. Completion 2017
75/85 Shaftesbury Avenue Landlord; Dolford Property Holdings.Size: 87,000 sq ft office space, 17,000 sq ft of retail and 5 apartments.Planning approved Jan.2013
96
18M
Footfall Index – 100 represents the location with the highest footfall(Source: FSP)
The following Landlords predominantly own and manage the tenant mix in the areas shaded
Tube Annual Exit Figure in Millions
Crown Estate
Shaftesbury Plc
Capital and Counties
Key
3
One thing that is clear from any post mortem carried out on recession-hit high streets and less prime shopping centres (certainly not the major regional centres) is the appreciation of a good tenant mix, between good local operators and national multiples. Whilst landlords, especially in shopping centres, are keen to have good tenant covenants, the balance of viable, attractive localised traders who can offer something unique to a shopping centre or high street is arguably more important to the short, medium and long term retail
vitality; this surely should have an effect on the intrinsic value of the shop or centre?
Investors need to value this vitality especially in under-performing shopping centres, which would be similar to a goodwill valuation bearing in mind these local traders may create additional footfall benefits beyond the financial drivers of rent/yield assessed by valuers.
Currently, ‘old school’ valuers value the building’s worth rather than the tenant’s worth and as a result the property market has this love affair with covenant strength at any cost. We need to regard local traders as enhancing a centre’s vibrancy. However, although more enlightened valuers reflect a ’tenant mix’, few take a more holistic view with perceived weaker tenants. This is assuredly a dichotomy when those local trades are enhancing the retail offer in the location? Recently, the Local Data Company published a report which stated that 44 independent shops opened every day in 2013 as small businesses replaced contracting big
chains, which closed an average of 16 shops a day.
The growth in independent shopping was most prevalent in Wales, the Midlands and the South West, where the number of new shop openings significantly outpaced the number of closures. London was one of just three regions to see a net decline in the number of independent shops, with the South East and North East also recording small reductions. The number of independent shops has grown consistently since 2009, according to the LDC and BIRA, but the rate of growth has slowed more recently.
For example, Gloucester Road in Bristol bears witness to the additional footfall generation and brings vitality to the retail high street. A good mix of greengrocers, butchers and fishmongers entwined with the café montage is better than a high street full of bookmakers, charity shops and discounters. Perhaps this is where real-world retail and retail values are headed: our shopping parades and secondary shopping centres reverting to older models of economic activity, where they serve the needs of physical customers in physical stores as an intrinsic adjunct to the internet.
How much is that retail vitality worth, to the landlord, to the tenant, the local shop keeper and the wider community? Comparables are used to derive the value of an investment worth to a landlord according to the approach undertaken by the valuation profession. However, this falls short of the upside benefits of a good tenant mix and do not truly reflect the commercial benefits of a kind of indirect goodwill. Landlords are prevented from benefitting directly from tenant’s goodwill in leases either at rent review or lease renewal. The indirect benefits need to be
considered by the valuation profession and a good tenant mix could and should lead to considering a goodwill value for the retail vitality of any given location.
If retail landlords are not sensitive to the tenant mix and merely concentrate on rents then potentially they are putting their investments at risk. To see an array of florists, boutiques and independent clothes shops and occupied shops is a greater footfall generator and the upside benefit needs to be recognised. These retailers could be put on a concessionary or turnover basis with an additional value being applied to the upside benefit of the retail vibrancy delivered to the retail environment.
There is no simple panacea for the issues currently facing the retail market, but a realisation of market factors and a dynamic approach from all involved must surely assist in restoring the confidence and desire to shop in physical stores by the public and in retail property investment by owners.
Where is the intrinsic value from a good tenant mix?
Jerry BurtonHead of Lease Consultancy+44 (0) 117 988 [email protected]
4
The use of pop-up retailers has become a popular trend in the UK, providing landlords with a temporary fix to negate void costs whilst providing retailers with a chance to take space in a location they may not have had an opportunity to before. Done well, pop-ups can be a fantastic way of bringing a new dimension to a centre, helping to attract additional footfall and complement, rather than compete with, existing long-term retailers. It also provides an opportunity to secure a longer term letting should the pop-up be seen as mutually successful.
Pop-up units should provide flexibility and by using a three to six month licence agreement this provides sufficient time to ensure that it is a good fit which adds value. In addition to rates mitigation, pop-up occupiers can help with service charge contributions for the unit which
would otherwise fall as an additional cost to the landlord during the void period, which provides another incentive. They can also provide a great opportunity to connect with different types of retailers without exposing the centre to the risk of agreeing to a long term lease when there is uncertainty around whether the retailer will flourish in that environment.
The success of a mixed-use destination is not only based on the variety of occupiers and retailers but also creating the right atmosphere to drive footfall and increase customer dwell time during the day, evening and weekends. A pop-up, if done correctly, will provide an opportunity to generate press and PR for the development and to reach an audience that has not yet been targeted. Increasingly, social media plays an important part of this mix to create a buzz about the development, especially if they have a strong social media presence themselves.
As part of the landlord’s asset strategy at St Katharine Docks, GVA has introduced pop-up retailers in two retail units which were mothballed pending lease expiries of adjoining units and presented an opportunity for the landlord and estate. The pop-ups successfully reduced
rates and service charge liability, and importantly, brought different occupiers to the estate, bringing both marketing opportunities and visitor interest.
Every location is different but we have found that the type of retailer can make a big difference in terms of appeal and increase in footfall. At St Katharine Docks we have found that art galleries have performed really well, fitting well with our target demographic for the development.
As well as pop-up shops at St Katharine Docks, the introduction of a weekly food market every Friday and a street food market on the first Tuesday of every month has created a great atmosphere and has also helped drive footfall through the promotion of the markets via Twitter and the website. These initiatives have enabled us to entice customers to the estate who ordinarily may not have visited whilst gaining long term custom for the long term retailers. Using pop-ups on a short term basis has brought benefits and interest in the estate, occupiers and landlord, whilst also offering an opportunity to support local and emerging businesses. Should the landlord wish, the short term nature allows for agents to continue marketing the unit to attract the desired tenant mix.
The use of pop-ups can bring opportunities and benefits to existing and new occupiers, visitors and landlords alike. We anticipate that there will continue to be a future for pop-ups in a retail environment for the medium to long term whilst there is still a higher than normal number of void units, whilst existing and new retailers explore different products and avenues to trade in, and as the retail environment continues to change and develop. As is so often the case however, there still remains a need for balance and, whilst pop-ups are a great way of tackling rates and service charge mitigation in the short term, they should not be confused with the stability of long term occupiers who secure long term income for the development.
Pop-up retail trend
Janet FranklinHead of Shopping Centre Management+44 (0) 20 7911 [email protected]
5
Retail is concerned with providing products that people need and desire. Sustainability is about using resources more efficiently whilst improving or maintaining living standards. The Earth has survived for around 4.5 billion years and no matter how much we change it through burning fossil fuels and depleting its resources it will survive. However, societies and individuals are not so resilient. Sustainability isn’t about saving the planet; like retail, it’s about meeting the requirements of people.
Retailers and those involved in the manufacture of consumer goods are finding themselves on the front line of sustainability, facing severe risks to both supply chains and
brand image. An increasing number of consumer brands are recognising these threats and reacting by placing sustainability at the heart of their business plans. Think M&S’s Plan A, Patagonia’s Common Threads Partnership, Unilever’s Sustainable Living Plan and Kingfisher’s Net Positive programme. Puma took to heart the adage of ‘You can’t manage what you can’t measure’ and published an environmental profit and loss account in 2011, and their parent company Kering are now implementing this methodology across all their brands with a group E P&L planned for 2016.
As well as acting on the pressing resource concerns there is an acknowledgment that consumers are expecting more from companies with their non-financial commitments. Sainsbury’s CFO, John Rogers, recently made the point that although we saw a credit crunch between 2007 and 2012 we didn’t see a “values crunch”. Consumers in the UK now expect sustainability along with quality and affordability. This trend is demonstrated by the increasing number of corporate responsibility reports that are published as
companies seek to meet the expectations of consumers and shareholders.
The role of propertyProperty is both the embodiment of a company’s brand and a source of significant resource use. This is acknowledged in the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) updated commitment to reducing the environmental impact of the retail industry. A Better Retailing Climate: Driving Resource Efficiency is an update on progress since 2008 and sets targets up to 2020 with signatories representing over half of the UK sector and a combined turnover of £160 billion.
Between 2008 and 2013 signatories reduced energy-related emissions from buildings by 30% and now aim for a further 50% reduction by 2020 and an 80% reduction in refrigerant gases. The proportion of waste sent to landfill has fallen from 47% to just 6% with the aspiration to have this down to just one per cent by the end of this decade. It is still difficult for retailers to obtain accurate water usage data at about 20% of sites but the target is to have measurement at all sites by 2020. As with many individual retailers and other companies, the aspirations of the BRC go much further than required or asked for by government.
The BRC targets echo the importance recognised by Puma, that you can’t manage what you can’t measure. This is also clear in the updated Sustainability Charter of the
British Council of Shopping Centres (BCSC), which is soon to be released and provides methods for measuring environmental impacts as well as benchmarks against which to assess performance.
Improving performanceAt GVA we recognise the importance of gathering robust environmental performance data from properties and then using that data to identify opportunities for improvement. We are standardising this process across the properties we manage and already have some excellent examples of action, such as at Merseyway Shopping Centre which was recently shortlisted for the BCSC Sustainability Gold award. Between 2010 and 2013, Merseyway management staff identified and implemented actions that halved energy use and resulted in no waste going to landfill. The actions also had a positive impact financially with both energy and waste collection costs more than halving. Occupiers and visitors are kept up to date with environmental initiatives through a newsletter and QR code accessible app, with the strap line of “Sustainability makes sense”.
The threats from resource scarcity and the need to meet the expectations of customers and investors is bringing sustainability to the heart of retail property. It is therefore important for all involved to understand the concerns and be able to implement solutions.
It’s the people, stupid!What sustainability and retail have in common
The final piece in the government’s planning policy reform is now in place: the publication of the National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG). In the same way that the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) slashed the number of pages of planning policy, the NPPG significantly slashes the number of pages of national practice guidance. So, what does this mean for retail and town centre planning?
Apart from one area of note, there are no significant changes from the Practice Guidance (prepared by GVA) published by the Department for Community and Local Government in 2009. In particular, the importance of preparing town centre visions and strategies has been successfully summarised, as has guidance on town centre health checks and planning for new retail development at the local level. The guidance on assessing planning applications for retail development also successfully treads a fine line between the needs of the general public and property/planning professionals.
However, the one area which will no doubt be the main talking point for the retail industry is the sequential test and the need to consider disaggregation of retail developments proposed on sites outside of town centres. A simple example of the principle of ‘disaggregation’ is where a promoter of a multi-unit retail/leisure park has to consider breaking
up (i.e. disaggregating) the development on to separate sites in a town centre.
Until recently, there has been tension between the wording of the NPPF and the 2009 Practice Guidance. The NPPF does not refer to disaggregation, with some commentators seeing this as a deliberate omission and change in policy by DCLG, whilst others have continued to rely on the Practice Guidance which did refer to disaggregation. Even the draft NPPG in August 2013 referred to the need to consider “what contribution town centre sites are able to make, either individually or collectively, to meeting the same requirements as the application is intended to meet”, which many took as a sign of disaggregation.
Although the reference to ‘collectively’ has been removed in the final version of the NPPG, which again some may argue as a sign of a deliberate omission by DCLG, this could pave the way for promoters of out-of-centre schemes to argue that, so long as flexibility in format and scale has been shown, there is no need to consider breaking up multi-unit out-of-centre retail/leisure developments.
This subtle change in wording could have unintended
consequences for major retail developments across the country. Like most things in retail planning, this will be argued at planning appeal and judicial review, and the recent publication of the NPPG is unlikely to be the end of the story. At least DCLG have decided to publish the NPPG as an on-line resource, thus making changes to the Practice Guidance must easier in the future.
The National Planning Practice Guidance Making guidance shorter doesn’t always make it more straightforward
Matthew MorrisDirectorPlanning Consultancy+44 (0) 117 988 [email protected]
7
It is quite difficult to remain loyal to a single asset class these days, as the answer to all our property woes is MUD! At least that is the acronym; the rest of you might know it as ‘mixed-use development’. There has been a good deal of commentary about how retail is fast changing, how the internet and now mobile is killing the high street and yet at the same time we have seen the rise of the supermarkets and the food and beverage sector.
Those of us who are old enough will remember the boom in development in the 1990s following the last recession. We saw the wide-scale development of shopping centres, supermarkets, out of town retail parks and stand-alone leisure parks. Times have changed since then as we are now in more educated, instant and demanding times as consumers. We believe
we have less time so we are demanding more from our leisure time experience.
GVA has previously suggested that we are seeing the polarisation of centres and major retailers are taking larger stores, but fewer of them, using lease expiries, breaks and any other levers to reduce their store counts or costs. This means that some assets and towns need to reposition themselves to survive for the next 15 – 25 years and a good way of doing so is with mixed-use developments. Every experienced shopping centre leasing agent has been promoting ‘experiential retail’ for some time now. Providing a wider and improved retail experience is one way to broaden the catchment to increase both dwell time and spend per capita.
It is no surprise that the things people want and use the most are the classes that are performing the best. The latest generation of “super” shopping centres deliver tenant mixes that have a much higher proportion of catering and leisure than previous generations. For example, Westfield Stratford was almost the only major scheme to be delivered in the recession, due to commitments to the 2012 Olympics. The catering and leisure element of that
scheme was all pre-let prior to opening. However, the retail was having a tougher time and some units remained vacant until post opening and post Olympics. People love to shop, but they have to eat!
Older shopping centres are responding by remodelling themselves and introducing MUD - more entertainment and more catering in order to compete and retain customer visits and spend. GVA cannot deliver a mini-Bluewater in every town, but we are involved in a considerable amount of mixed-use development that will see those centres with a boost to their offer, economy and rankings. Masterplanners and councils have been promoting the “18 – 7” economy - activity in centres for 18 hours a day 7 days a week. This means restaurant and entertainment activity in addition to retail and it also means bringing people back in to towns to live.
GVA is currently helping to deliver new mixed-use schemes and rejuvenation to towns for a number of clients:
Canning Town Bouygues Development UK
Having entered the race for this local authority primed urban regeneration scheme in 2007 we introduced our developer client to recent UK market entrants Bouygues. We knew that in order for the joint venture to be successful we needed a consortium with both strong development experience and
strong financial resources to win this £600 million creation of a new town centre. The partnership delivered that.
Now working solely with Bouygues, GVA has already delivered and funded Phase I of this impressive scheme, the topping out ceremony was just last week. Morrisons will soon begin to fit out their new 80,000 sq ft supermarket and we have an adjoining unit to fill. We are just commencing the marketing of Phase II, with interest from multiple retailers, restaurateurs and a hotel deal agreed. This has required intelligent marketing; Canning Town was a run down and deprived area of East London. However, the proximity to Canary Wharf, unrivalled transport links, City Airport and the river has meant that it has been easy to put a compelling case forward. With the amount of development happening in the area, including a new town square and library and vast residential development, you need to go and see it.
Bedford Riverside CoPlan and Bouygues Construction UK
Both CoPlan and GVA knew Bedford well from differing angles. CoPlan from the development angle and GVA from a local authority advice and retail lettings (Next, amongst others). We started work on a development site elsewhere in Bedford that proved to be non-viable in 2010. We then focused our attention on the local authority led development
of Bedford Riverside, “the best site in the town”. Having assisted the client’s pitch we were delighted to be selected preferred developer, beating development companies with a more established track record.
Pre-leasing has gone extremely well with pre-lets to Premier Inn, Vue Cinemas, Zizzi, Chimichanga, Harvester, Bella Italia and other major restaurateurs under negotiation. GVA Investment team has recently undertaken a campaign to secure funding which attracted many well-known investors, demonstrating the continuing improvement in the funding and investment industry and heralding the return of the development market. Our clients are already on site undertaking demolition works and Bedford will be open for trade in 2016. GVA is also looking at development monitoring via our Building Consultancy team.
Addlestone, Surrey Bouygues Development UK
GVA undertook the soft market testing and input considerable advice on demand, configuration and values into the client’s detailed submission to Runnymede Council. We were successfully appointed with Bouygues in 2011. GVA has subsequently advised throughout the architectural design process and was instrumental in bringing Premier Inn to the table. This was not easy as we had to persuade them to walk away from commitments elsewhere.
We have now exchanged an agreement for lease, agreed terms with a supermarket and have discussions on-going with other multiple retailers, restaurateurs and family pub companies. Our Investment team is advising on funding and our Property Management team has advised on property management strategy.
Redhill, Surrey CoPlan and British Airways Pension Fund
This is a recent win for GVA and our clients via the interesting and possibly bizarre ‘competitive dialogue’ route. Beating five other developers who submitted for this scheme, we were pleased to win this very central town centre refurbishment. GVA was able to exploit our intimate knowledge of the town and also engaged early with other neighbouring land owners. The extra homework, coupled with a great scheme and bundles of enthusiasm gave us the edge; that and a creative JV partnership with BA Pension Fund. Whilst at an early stage, this development is already proving popular with cinemas, restaurants and retailers alike who see the opportunity that an affluent catchment and distant competition bring. We have been giving CPO advice and investment acquisition advice too, showing our full-service offer.
Herne Bay, Kent CoPlan and Bouygues Construction
This scheme demonstrates GVA’s tenacity and commitment to delivery. We have been working on this scheme since 2008. Having explored a number of options and discussions with developers, the initial ambitions for the town proved too difficult to deliver in a recession. When all else fails, simplify the plan. We have now exchanged with Aldi, the rising star in the supermarket sector, delivering a new store, some competition and some much needed public realm. We are now seeking pre-lets for phase II and funding for phase I.
Market activity is continuing to improve this year and GVA is being asked to look at more opportunities throughout the South East and the rest of the country. Particular hot spots seem to be the Home Counties, Birmingham and the Midlands, Cambridge, Liverpool and Southampton. The residential market is playing a role in these developments as demand and prices continue to rise. As a firm, GVA has also developed a specialism in the private rented sector (PRS) and also student housing market. We also advise in the health sector, offices, industrial and with our specialists in rights of light, CPO, sustainability and minerals all covered we are
very well placed to advise on all aspects. We might struggle on nuclear power…no, “we do that as well”, I have just been told. GVA do that and we definitely do MUD!
As property professionals we need to remember a factor called obsolescence. Things are changing faster these days and, as fashions continue to change, so do our life styles.
Whether we are talking about new-build, re-development or refurbishment, investors want modern, fit-for-purpose stock, let on long leases, at viable rents to good covenants with interesting and desirable uses. Some landlords would lead you to believe that tenant mix is the panacea, but they must all be answerable to the lender, shareholder or valuer at some point.
The proposed MUD in Redhill, Surrey
9
Retail sales volume, March 2014
3 months on previous 3 months
3 months on same 3 months
a year ago
Total retail sales 0.7% 4.2%
- Food stores -1.4% -0.5%
- Non-food stores 2.5% 7.2%
- Non-store (pure internet/mail order/markets)
1.9% 12.9%
Source: ONS (Excluding Automotive Fuel)
• Consumer confidence is slowly improving, although March sales were more muted than February’s strong sales. Overall sales volumes grew 0.7% January-March, compared with the previous three months, and were 4.2% pa up year-on-year, one of the strongest rates in almost a decade.
• Non-food store sales were buoyant over the three months to March, up 7.2% pa - the strongest growth since the end of 2004. In contrast food stores underperformed, with falling sales volumes (-0.5% pa) and non-store sales growth (pure Internet/mail order) slowed considerably to 12.9% pa.
• Internet sales (by value) equated to 10.6% of total retail sales in March and compared to last year, internet sales grew by a modest 7.1% pa.
Economic indicators, April 2014
Consensus forecasts 2014
Consensus forecasts 2015
Inflation – CPI (% pa) 1.9% (Q4) 2.1% (Q4)
Inflation – RPI (% pa) 2.8% (Q4) 3.3% (Q4)
Unemployment rate (claimant count, millions)
1.08 (Q4) 0.98 (Q4)
Base rate 0.5% (Q4) 1.1% (Q4)
House prices (% pa) 8.3% (Q4) 6.1% (Q4)
GDP (% pa) 2.9% 2.5%
Source: Consensus compiled by Treasury, April 2014
• The economy has performed better than expected over the last 12 months leading to a much healthier outlook for 2014. GDP growth is expected to be 2.9% this year, although this rate is expected to weaken slightly in 2015.
• Unemployment is expected to continue gradually falling, which combined with significant house price growth and lower inflation this year, (close to the 2.0% target rate), should boost consumer confidence. The official Bank rate is expected to start rising by the end of this year and continue rising gently to around 1.1% by Q4 2015.
Retail property performance indicators, March 2014
% year on year Forecasts (2014)
Rental growth
Capital growth
Total return
Rental growth
Capital growth
Total return
Standard retail
-0.8% 3.7% 10.3% 1.1% 7.8% 13.5%
Shopping centres
-1.3% 0.8% 8.8% 1.0% 7.1% 13.0%
Retail warehouses
-0.9% 2.5% 9.3% 1.1% 7.6% 13.9%
Sources: IPD Monthly Index. Forecasts from REF/GVA (March figures)
• Total returns have improved significantly with returns in March of over 8.0% pa for standard retail, shopping centres and retail warehouses (IPD Monthly Index). Positive capital growth has now also returned across all three retail sub-sectors although rental value growth still remains negative.
• Forecasts show that by the end of the year total returns should have reached at least 13% pa, and capital value growth will also be above 7% pa for all three types of retail properties. Positive rental growth is also forecast by the end of the year of 1.0-1.1% pa.
Retail yields (prime/secondary equivalent yields)
Q4 2013
Prime Secondary
Standard shops 4.7% 10.1%
Shopping centres 5.8% 14.0%
Retail warehouses 5.7% 8.8%
Sources: IPD Quarterly Index
• Prime retail yields have continued to show marginal improvements (0.1-0.2%) quarter on quarter, with yields ranging from 4.7% for standard retail to 5.8% for shopping centres (IPD Quarterly Index, Q4, 2013)
• For secondary properties, shopping centre yields saw the biggest improvement quarter on quarter of 0.7%, although they remained significantly higher at 14.0% in Q4, than yields for secondary standard retail units or retail warehouses at 10.1% and 8.8% respectively.
GVA is the trading name of GVA Grimley Limited and is a principal shareholder of GVA Worldwide, an independent partnership of property advisers operating globally gvaworldwide.com