0945 per-pinstrup-andersen-adelaide-2012

Food Security to 2050: Action Issues

Per Pinstrup-Andersen

University of AdelaideFebruary 13, 2012

RhetoricDeclarationsPlansTargets

Action

Action Issue 1

What is “Food Security”?

Progress Towards Meeting the WFS Goal Globally

848

923

1020

863842

421400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Mill

ions

Data

91-04

WFS

925

Source: FAO 2006

Progress Towards Meeting the MDG Globally

20%18%

16% 16% 17% 18% 17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%19

90-9

2

1995

-97

2000

-02

2005

-07

2008

2009

2010

Action Issue 2

Speed up eradication of food insecurity and malnutrition.

The Triple Burden of Malnutrition

1. Energy and protein deficiencies: Hunger

2. Specific nutrient deficiencies: Hidden Hunger

3. Excessive net energy intake: Overweight & Obesity

Action Issue 3

Incorporate nutrition goals into food system policies and

programs.

Action Issue 4

Use nutrition impact as indicator of success in

economic policy.

Action Issue 5

Manage food price volatility.

Maize Weekly Price Minus12-Month Moving Average

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Rice Weekly Price Minus12-Month Moving Average

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Wheat Weekly Price Minus12-Month Moving Average

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Volatility in Weather Patterns

Drought Flooding Strong Winds

Production Volatility

Irregular RainfallPatterns

Action Issue 6

Adapt the food system to climate change.

Priority Action (1)

Agricultural research Risk management Production systemsWater management

Production Volatility

Supply Responses

Government Policy

Market Information

Speculation

Government Policies

Energy Prices

Demand Changes

Price Volatility

Action Issue 7

Manage amplifying factors.

Priority Action (2)

Infrastructure Institutional innovation Domestic and international markets Protect the effectiveness of price signals Promote effective price transmission Compensatory measures Alternative energy sources

Action Issue 8

Expand food production to meet future demand.

Priority Action (3)

Specific policy interventions context specific Likely to include: Infrastructure investments Institutional innovation Input and output market developmentPre- and post harvest focused researchFacilitation of small-scale agri-business

Action Issue 9

Sustainable intensification.

Environmental Kuznets Curve

Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining

Action Issue 10

Full costing

Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining