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7/27/2019 06_Review_120713
1/5
Indian Rupee - ( 0/4 ) Rupee has broken up on the
upside & resistance have given way. Downside Levels are
now at 59.53,58.05,57,56,55.821, 54.931, 54.192, 53.856
& 53.170 & 51.905
Rupee has given a Breakout on All timeframes. Ascending
triangle upward Breakout Measured Move Target is
61.734.Previous High of 60.709 has been taken out on
Upside
Rupee was weakned by strengthing Dollar but Rupee was
not able to recover even on Weaking Dollar Rupee is
continuing weaking trend -ve for stock markets
Nifty - ( 3/4 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631
(22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto
4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012
Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to
6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-01-
2013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013)
After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-05-
2013) There was Ongoing correction in Uptrend (as Higher
Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of
5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto
5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to 6229)
Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (20-
05-2013) May Ended as 5684 ( 18-06-2013 ) Lower High is
Broken on closing Basis Resulting into sideways Trend .
Reverse H&S has formed & Broken out (after close above
5710 on closing Basis), Measured target is upto top of
Range 6218 (100%) or 6168 (78.6%) & 6123 (61.8%)
On Weekly Chart Super Compression (3 Ascending
triangles are formed,But each ascending triangle is first
broken on Upside & than on Down Side (Check Green Blue
Arrows Continuation of this Pattern (Red Arrow) will
result to Move above 6300 Than a break below 5500.
Review_12/07/13 - ( Rating - 7/15 ) Negative - High Risk - Rupee is Breaking Down / Nifty has confirmed Sideways
Trend with Higher Low & Bullish Reverse H & S Pattern / AD is +ve / TRIN is +ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is +ve (--) Big Picture
is Netural
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural |3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |
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7/27/2019 06_Review_120713
2/5
Dimensions
Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of
2532 - 4534 - 4775 was threatned & break that @ 5453
was saved now 5630 is the crucial point (Upon Fall below
5480 target upto 5500 50% & Now major Fib target @ 61.8
- 5245 is Retracement of Move from 4800 to 6100.)
Volume Volumes are in Average Trend.Nifty future
added 8.45 lakh position in Open Interest and this
accounts to 4.78 % of Total Open Interest in Jul series.The
Nifty Jul series is trading at 1.75 Rs discount to Underlying .
In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty
future net added 11.65 lakh position in open interest and
this accounts to 5.72 % of Total Open Interest in all series
and cumulatively trading in average premium of 19.2 Rs to
Underlying.Indicators MCDA +Ve Trend RSI +Ve Trend
Sentiments Waiting Sentiments are now Over as clear
trend has emerged ( Due to Reverse H & S Breakout ) Risk
Reward would be favourable on Buy Side. -ve Earnings
reported in Q1.But Ocassional +ve Surprises are expected
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5682 ) Nifty has now
build huge Short Position / Rally..As per Nifty's 56 Day
Cycle Trend changed to up at 12-07-2013 (+56Days) ( Next
Date 02-09-2013 )..... Mid month Reversal date 12-07-2013 was Upward Breakout.....Quaterlies Settlement is on
3rd Friday of 20-09-2013..... Sideways trend has started as
Lower High has been Broken higher low is created @ 5565
Bull Market Uptrend may start after Nifty Previous Life
High is taken out
Open Intrest (OI)
Record updated for-.Jul/15/2013-NIFTY FUTURE-
CMP(6007.25) is currently in BULL trend . The open
interest is also increasing with trend
In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even
though put/call ratio is high At current price strike the
activity is tilted to call side and ratio is still strong The Nifty
call option is trading at discount so sentiment at higher
level seems cautious. NIFTY PCR (Position
Wise) - 1.18 & (Money Wise) - 0.44
P & F Chart Triple Top Breakout on 12-07-2013.There is
Resistance at 5850 & Support at 6050
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7/27/2019 06_Review_120713
3/5
Breadth Charts - ( 3/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
Advance Decline Line (1/1) If the Nifty is rising but the
number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is
in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse.AD Line is Down but stabilising and some Balance in AD
needs to be achieved.+ve Double Bottomwith Uptrend
would be +ve
Midcaps are Stable ( Need to Recover from Over Sold
Levels ) But some Large caps & Index Heavy Weights are
still Declining
Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (1/1) To Incorporate
Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in
that it moves opposite to the Nifty
TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying
pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in
stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in
stocks that are Declining
SMA Trin is Between 0.8 & 0.7 indicating more stocks are
bought (Strength in Uptrend),The series of Lower Highs
indicates +Ve strength
NSE Net Monthly High & Low (1/1) More Stocks in the
index making new highs versus new lows if Number is
Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicateMarkets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment &
Trend) is Positive
More Stocks have Touching 52 week Highs Vs Less stock
reaching 52 week Lows confirms Strength Chart Bars hve
starting to get +ve
India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a
weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers
hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a
factor & used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They
Together have Indirect corelation with Index ie Vix & DVol
is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is
Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix
& DVOL leads to Sidewise Index
VIX after Breaking down to the 12-18 Range. Fear/
Volitality is decreasing with Up Trend indicating
strength....Volume is also High.... But Vix has Furthur Room
to Move Up to 21 to below to 12 & adjust with Nifty in Up
OR Down Trend
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7/27/2019 06_Review_120713
4/5
Indian Bonds (1/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock
Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term
Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period =
Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect
relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate
(Controlled by Market)
All Bonds have started upmove & Swing High will Kill The
Down Trend in all Bond Charts 3 Year Rate is near 30 Year
Rate Higher than 10 Year Rate (Caution) .. Correct
Relation is 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI.
Commodities (Negative Correlation) Also CommoditiesCrude is moving Up on Egypts issues,After Break Down
Gold is trading in Range 1250 to 1180 supports ... ( Equity
Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic
Growth (& Reduced Commodity Demand) & Geo Political
Tensions are also increasing.
A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt
B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate
Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B
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7/27/2019 06_Review_120713
5/5
Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is the
Only Appriciating Currency but has Given Breakdown on
Weekly Charts & Hence Some Currencies are Stabilising.
Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to
Rebuild (Distribution ) after collapse has caused Panik
across Globe after Fed's Hints at Liquidity Reversal (Market
failed to Build Gains on Bad Reports & has Declined on
Good Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity
(QE Reversal)..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off
Mode .. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every
Currency (Developed & Other Emerging Mkt Currencies )
are deprciating against $
World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) China is Recover
is Slow with raised concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan
& US Markets have recovered from Breakdown & Europe
CAG DAX & FTSE are Now Recovering from their Breaking
Downs (Global Markets are showing Syncronisation in
recovery from Breakdowns.Hence Global Liquidity is
Drying ..All Equity Markets are recovering,But are on Risk
OFF Mode
http://in.advfn
.com/world
The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise (6/10) Negative
INDEX HDFC Breakout of support from 200 SMA Now moving towards 50 SMA
FINANCE ICICIBANK Breakout of Base & retraced prior to test of 200 SMA
ENERGY RELIANCE Breakout of Base above its 200 SMA & Breaking out of Resistance
IT INFY Breakout of Base at 52 week Low But froming Reverse H&S & moving up to test 200 SMA
FMCG ITC Rising from Support @89 EMA Moving towards Previous Double Top
AUTO TATAMOTORS Breakout of 200SMA & Now at Resistance Near 300
PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Breakout after Base towards Life highs but with Little Retracement
CAPITAL GOODS L&T Breakout from support with Double Bottom & moving up to test 200 SMA
METALS TATASTEEL At Life Lows crating BaseCEMENT ULTRACEMCO Breakdown from Top of 6 Month Range to test 200 SMA
NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of
them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions.
Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any
market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.