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7/27/2019 05_Review_050713
1/5
Indian Rupee - ( 0/3 ) Rupee has broken up on the
upside & resistance have given way. Downside Levels are
now at 58.05,57,56,55.821, 54.931, 54.192, 53.856 &
53.170 & 51.905
Rupee has given a Breakout on All timeframes. Ascending
triangle upward Breakout Measured Move Target is
61.734.Previous High of 60.709 has been taken out on
Upside
Rupee was weakned by strengthing Dollar but Rupee was
not able to recover even on Weaking Dollar Rupee is
continuing weaking trend -ve for stock markets
Nifty - ( 1/3 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631
(22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto
4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012
Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to
6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-01-
2013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013)
After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-05-
2013) There was Ongoing correction in Uptrend (as Higher
Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of
5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto
5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to 6229)
Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (20-
05-2013) May Ended as 5684 ( 18-06-2013 ) Lower High is
Broken on closing Basis Resulting into sideways Trend .
Even Reverse H&S is formed above 5710 on closing Basis,
Measured target is upto top of Range 6218 if 5863.10 (Left
Shoulder) is broken below on closing Basis Measured
target is up to 5304
On Weekly Chart Super Compression (3 Ascending
triangles are formed,But each ascending triangle is first
broken on Upside & than on Down Side (Check Green Blue
Arrows Continuation of this Pattern (Red Arrow) will
result to Move above 6300 Than a break below 5500.
Review_05/07/13 - ( Rating - 4/12 ) Negative - High Risk - Rupee is Breaking Down / Nifty has confirmed Break Down
but now moving towards Sideways Trend - Higher Low needs to be in Place for sideways trend / AD is +ve / TRIN is +ve /
Net 52 WK Hi/Low is +ve (--) Big Picture is Negative
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural |3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |
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7/27/2019 05_Review_050713
2/5
Dimensions
Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of
2532 - 4534 - 4775 was threatned & break that @ 5453
was saved now 5630 is the crucial point (Upon Fall below
5480 target upto 5500 50% & Now major Fib target @ 61.8
- 5245 is Retracement of Move from 4800 to 6100.)
Volume Volumes are on Declining Trend.Nifty future
added 6.81 lakh position in Open Interest and this
accounts to 4.35 % of Total Open Interest in Jul series.The
Nifty Jul series is trading at 7.05 Rs premium to Underlying
. In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty
future net added 7.58 lakh position in open interest and
this accounts to 4.36 % of Total Open Interest in all series
and cumulatively trading in average premium of 29.32 Rs
to Underlying.Indicators MCDA +Ve Trend RSI +Ve Trend
Sentiments Sentiments are now wait on Sides for clear
trend to emerge (Due to Huge Wipsaws) Risk Reward
would be favourable on Breakout on Either Side. -ve
Earnings reported in Q1 with Many -ve Surprises are
expected
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5682 ) Nifty has now
build huge Short Position / Rally (As per Nifty's 56 Day
Cycle Trend might change at or near 08-07-2013 (+56Days)
to Mid month Reversal date 12-07-2013.... Bearish VewContinues until Trend Change to Upside after +ve H&S
Breakout of 5710 .. (Bull Market Uptrend may start after
Nifty Previous Life High is taken out (Sideways trend may
start as Lower High has been Broken & Right Shoulder
5760 is the higher low is created...)Quaterlies Settlement is
on 3rd Friday of 20-09-2013
Open Intrest (OI)
Record updated for-.Jul/08/2013-NIFTY FUTURE-
CMP(5874.95) is currently in SLIGHTLY BEAR trend .
Yesterday the trend was STRONG BEAR LOW VOLATALITY
In Jul series.The open interest is also increasing with trend
and premium of share is also increasing indicating bull
move
In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even
though put/call ratio is high At current price strike the
activity is tilted to call side but addition of Put is slightly
increasing at 5800 level The Nifty Put option is trading at
premium so market is expecting bearishness
NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 1.18 & (Money Wise) - 0.44P & F Chart Bearish Signal Reversed on 28-06-
2013.There is Resistance at 5950 & Support at 5600
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7/27/2019 05_Review_050713
3/5
Breadth Charts - ( 3/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
Advance Decline Line (1/1) If the Nifty is rising but the
number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is
in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse.AD Line is Down but is Hooking up as some Balance in AD
needs to be achieved.+ve Double Bottomwith Uptrend
would be +ve
Midcaps are Stable ( Need to Recover from Over Sold
Levels ) But some Large caps & Index Heavy Weights are
still Declining
Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (1/1) To Incorporate
Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in
that it moves opposite to the Nifty
TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying
pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in
stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in
stocks that are Declining
SMA Trin is Between 0.8 & 0.7 indicating more stocks are
bought (Strength in Uptrend),The series of Lower Highs
indicates +Ve strength
NSE Net Monthly High & Low (1/1) More Stocks in the
index making new highs versus new lows if Number is
Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicateMarkets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment &
Trend) is Positive
More Stocks have Touching 52 week Highs Vs Less stock
reaching 52 week Lows confirms Strength Chart Bars hve
starting to get +ve
India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a
weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers
hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a
factor & used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They
Together have Indirect corelation with Index ie Vix & DVol
is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is
Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix
& DVOL leads to Sidewise Index
VIX after Breaking out from the 13 level has pulled back to
the 12-18 Range. Fear/ Volitality is decreasing with Up
Trend indicating strength....Volume is also High.... But Vix
has Furthur Room to Move Up to 21 to below to 12 &
adjust with Nifty in Up OR Down Trend
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7/27/2019 05_Review_050713
4/5
Indian Bonds (0/3) Indirect Correlation with Stock
Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term
Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period =
Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect
relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate
(Controlled by Market)
All Bonds have started falling from their recent High &
Short term (3Y Have Fallen More than 10Y & 30Y the least)
indicating correct +ve coralation But still The 3 Year Rate
is near 30 Year Rate Higher than 10 Year Rate (Caution) ..
Correct Relation is 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI.
Commodities (Negative Correlation) Also Commodities
Crude is moving Up on Egypts issues,After Break Down
Gold is trading in Range 1250 to 1180 supports ... ( Equity
Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic
Growth (& Reduced Commodity Demand) & Geo Political
Tensions are also increasing.
A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt
B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate
Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B
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7/27/2019 05_Review_050713
5/5
Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is the
Only Appriciating Currency indicating Fear. Japan Yen
Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild
(Distribution ) after collapse has caused Panik across Globe
after Fed's Hints at Liquidity Reversal (Market failed to
Build Gains on Bad Reports & has Declined on Good
Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity (QE
Reversal)..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode ..
Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency
(Developed & Other Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are
deprciating against $
World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) China is Recover
is Slow with raised concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan
& US Markets have confirmed the Breakdown after 1626
but Distribution is Happening & Europe CAG DAX & FTSE
are Now Breaking Down from There Highs (Global Markets
are showing Syncronisation in the Breakdowns Confirming
Breakdown across Globe... Japan Nikke has Given up
majority of its Gains.Hence Global Liquidity is Drying ..All
Equity Markets are Declining - (Risk OFF Mode)
http://in.advfn
.com/world
The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise (7/10) Negative
INDEX HDFC Breakout of support from 200 SMA Now consolidating after Retracement
FINANCE ICICIBANK Breakout of Base & retraced prior to test of 200 SMA
ENERGY RELIANCE Breakout of Base above its 200 SMA & Breaking out of Resistance
IT INFY Breakout of Base at 52 week Low But froming Reverse H&S & moving up to test 200 SMA
FMCG ITC Rising from Support @89 EMA Moving towards Previous Double Top
AUTO TATAMOTORS Breakout of 200SMA & Now at Resistance Near 300
PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Breakout after Base towards Life highs but with Little RetracementCAPITAL GOODS L&T Rising from support with Double Bottom & creating Reverse H&S
METALS TATASTEEL At Life Lows crating Base
CEMENT ULTRACEMCO Rising from Bottom of 6 Month Range to test 200 SMA
NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of
them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions.
Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any
market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.