05

CEAL, Sao PauloOctober 15, 2010

ENERGY PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVESFOR THE 21ST CENTURY

Thomas B JohanssonProfessor, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics,

Lund University, Lund, Sweden,

Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria

From: Steffen et al. 2004

IGBP

Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Ozone depletion

Global Freshwater Use

Rate of Biodiversity

Loss

Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

Land System Change

Chemical Pollution

Planetary Boundaries

Challenges requiring actions on Energy

a. Energy services for growing populations and economies

b. access to modern forms of energy (the 2 billion w/o access)

c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??)

d. secure supplies, from households to nations

e. local and regional health and environment challenges

f. climate change mitigation

g. ancillary risks

=> Major Energy System Changes Needed!

adequately

timely

simultaneously

These challenges must be addressed

Assessement

Process leading to a Report and much more

25 Knowledge Modules, ~200 authors, geographically and gender diversified

Stakeholder consultations

External peer review

Extensive dissemination

Informing Rio +20 and other international, regional, naitonal and corporate on energy and/or linked to energy issues

Supporting the GEA:Supporting the GEA:

International OrganizationsInternational OrganizationsUNDESAUNDESAUNDP UNDP UNEPUNEPUNIDOUNIDOWorld BankWorld BankIIASAIIASA

Country Governments/AgenciesCountry Governments/AgenciesAustriaAustriaBrazilBrazilEuropean UnionEuropean UnionGermanyGermanyItalyItalySwedenSwedenUSAUSA

CorporationsCorporationsPetrobrasPetrobrasTEPCOTEPCOFirst SolarFirst Solar  Industry groupsIndustry groupsWECWECWBCSDWBCSD

FoundationsFoundationsUN FoundationUN FoundationClimate WorksClimate Works

Four Clusters of Knowledge modules:

1.The Challenges, nature and magnitude of change required

2.Resources and technology options

3.Pathways to sustainability, urbanisation, rural energy, and land use

4.Policies, energy end use and supply sectors, access, innovation, capacity developoment

Electricity

●ElectricityElectricity for All in the Medium Term for All in the Medium Term

(may be achievable(may be achievable))– Use of both grid-extensionUse of both grid-extension

and decentralized systems +and decentralized systems +

conventional and renewableconventional and renewable

energy technologiesenergy technologies– Strong national (and local) + Strong national (and local) +

public (and private) public (and private)

delivery modelsdelivery models– Smart use of subsidies and Smart use of subsidies and

other innovative financing mechanisms other innovative financing mechanisms

(global effort would be required)(global effort would be required)

Clean Cooking Fuels

● Biogas, LPG, alcohols, kerosene, electricity

● Benefits– Health– Time spent– Reduced emissions of

● Products of incomplete combustion● Black carbon

World crude oil production model

Nashawi et al., Energy Fuels 2010, 24, 1788–1800

Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail, with 67% probability

(WBGU 2009)

this translates into a need for a major energy systems transformation

Main elements:● Energy end-use efficiency● Renewable energies● Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only)

● Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the challenges at the same time!

“PassivHaus”

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz

0

50

100

150

200

250

Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům

celk

ová

ener

gie

[kW

h/m

2 a] - 90%

- 75%

Example of savings by reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house

principle

-90%15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)

Before reconstruction

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006

21

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation, 1.4% Retrofit, exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Work

in p

rogre

ss – do n

ot cite

or q

uote

-77%

Final thermal energy consumption in the world’s buildings by region, 2005-2050

3%/yr retrofit rate

How far can buildings take us?How far can buildings take us?

Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight

Telegraph Steam Locomotive

Coal Coal mine Coal fields

Interntet, Mobile Phone

ICE Automobile

Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil

Convergence Energy, Mobility

InformationHydrogen

Natural gas / fossils

SMR, decarbonization

Electrolysis

Sunlight

Wind

Uranium

1770s

1870s

1970s

2070s

Mobility and Communication Through Time

Biomass

Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

Source: David Sanborn Scott, 200423

Source: REN21

Nuclear PWR Investment CostsNuclear PWR Investment CostsUS overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interestsUS overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests

mean/best guess and min/max of costsmean/best guess and min/max of costs

US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA KM24 forthcoming

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

08

$/k

W

US average

France best guess

Nuclear PWR Investment Costs(US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests)

1980

1977

1985

1971

1975

1980

1983

1996

1995

5000

2000

3000

4000

1000

Figure 16 Fission power reactor start-ups and shutdowns (IAEA, 2010)

10%

16% 15%

21%

31%

36%

6%

10%12%

14%

28%

32%

4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0%

3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8%5.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Renewable power capacity addition as a % of global power capacity addition

Renewable power generation increase as a % of global power generation increase

Renewable power as a % of global power capacity

Renewable power as a % of global power generation

Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010

Excl. large hydro

Global energy transitions

0

100

200

300

400

500

1850 1900 1950 2000

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

(E

J)

Biomass

Oil

Gas

Renewable

NuclearMicrochip

Steammotor

Gasolinetube

Commercial Nuclear

Television

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

Coal

aviation

World Primary Energy

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

EJ

Geothermal

Solar

Hydro

Wind

Biomass_wCCS

Biomass_woCCS

Nuclear

Gas_wCCS

Gas_woCCS

Oil

Coal_wCCS

Coal_woCCS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

EJ

Geothermal

Solar

Hydro

Wind

Biomass_wCCS

Biomass_woCCSNuclear

Gas_wCCS

Gas_woCCS

Oil

Coal_wCCS

Coal_woCCS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

EJ

Geothermal

Solar

Hydro

Wind

Biomass_wCCS

Biomass_woCCS

Nuclear

Gas_wCCS

Gas_woCCS

Oil

Coal_wCCS

Coal_woCCS

GEA-L

GEA-M

GEA-H

Pathways to sustainability,

All pathways meeting the same ”sustainability” criteria in addressing multiple challenges

Work in progress!

Wind Power in EU-27 and FITsWind Power in EU-27 and FITs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Elec

tric

ity

Gen

erati

on (T

Wh)

Countries with wind FIT Countries with alternative support

Public Energy R&D in OECD

Source: IEA, 2008

not just energy technology

● Urban planning

● Transportation systems

● Material use

● Land use

● Consumption patterns

● …..

Economic development and poverty alleviationEconomic development and poverty alleviation while mitigating climate change while mitigating climate change

● Multiple benefits conceptMultiple benefits concept

● Value Value all all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment, ...)local environment, ...)

● Costs in terms of € per tC misleadingCosts in terms of € per tC misleading

● Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency

● Renewable energiesRenewable energies

Major findings and conclusionsMajor findings and conclusions

● Rapidly changing worldRapidly changing world● Transformative changes needed on energyTransformative changes needed on energy● Window of opportunity existsWindow of opportunity exists● Resources and technologies existResources and technologies exist● Rapidly growing role for renewable energiesRapidly growing role for renewable energies● Electricity growing importanceElectricity growing importance● Policies and institutions criticalPolicies and institutions critical● Energy subsidies and R&D misallocatedEnergy subsidies and R&D misallocated● Capacity development worldwideCapacity development worldwide

Thank you!Thank you!

www.globalenergyassessment.orgwww.globalenergyassessment.org

Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”

2 oC

Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009