03rorymcintosh

Threat of the Mountain Pine Beetle to Saskatchewan, and

Strategies for its Management

Rory McIntosh, Jeff Gooliaff and Brian Poniatowski Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment

and

Steven Oldford & Colin Arndt BioForest Technologies Inc.

• What’s at stake?

• Risk Assessment

• Threats and Triggers

• Response action(s)

• 2014 and beyond?

Overview…..

• MPB poses a significant ecological and economic risk to Saskatchewan

• Value of forest at risk is significant:

43-50% softwood manufactured in SK is Jack pine Crown revenues from pine harvest averaged $1,200,000 before

recent mill closures 20% volume of all trees South of Churchill is Jack pine. Rebounding forest industry depends on softwood component

• Many forest - dependent communities in North including:

Prince Albert, La Ronge, Meadow Lake, Nipawin and Creighton

• Many Provincial Parks at risk Cypress Hills, Meadow Lake, La Ronge

• MPB POSES NATIONAL RISK With confirmation of what we had expected – that MPB can use

Jack pine host; MPB poses National threat

Values at Risk…..

5

• The unprecedented MPB outbreak in BC is estimated to kill about 60% of pine forests by 2021

• Peak outbreak affected approximately 18 million ha ~ area 5 x size of Vancouver Island

• MPB have breached the Rockies (2006 and 2009) and have spread into the “hybrid corridor” in north central Alberta

• The best approach to preventing the continued spread of MPB east is to slow beetle spread in E. Alberta

• Vigilant survey, early detection and rapid response critical to protecting Saskatchewan forests

Lodgepole pine

Ponderosa pine

Mountain pine beetle

Jack pine

Lodgepole/Jack hybrids

Mountain Pine Beetle

1. Prevention

• Risk assessment

• Regulatory controls

• Surveillance; early detection and rapid aggressive response

• Communication, partnerships and collaboration

2. Suppression

• Minimize the impact of a major outbreak

RISK ANALYSIS Strategic Approach

•MPB pine import storage

restriction order under FRMA

2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003

2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003

2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003

Outbreak exceeds

historic high in 1985 (2 Million Ha)

Outbreak reaches

historic high (10 Million Ha)

•2011-13 AB/SK MOA

SMAC FORMED

•Attend MPB CFS

RA symposium

•Current outbreak started

Canmore (25 trees)

•AB aligns MPB mgmt

with Parks Canada

•SK/AB complete

regional hazard rating

•AB impose restrictions

on MPB transport

•2nd (largest) Mass

dispersal event

•MPB reach Slave Lk

}

•BC/AB MOU

•SK designates “lands” &

MPB as “Pest” FRMA

•MPB killed trees

detected in CHIPP

•SK Minister

Attends Calgary

MPB Summit

•SK draft MPB

Strategy Framework

•SK/AB regional

Hazard rating

•Expand surveys in NW

•SK MPB Symposium

•MPB Designation

“lands” amended

NATIONAL FOREST PEST STRATEGY

•Jack pine host

confirmed

2011

2011

2011

Outbreak declines (6 Million Ha)

2012 2013

2012 2013

2012 2013

•2014-17 AB/SK MOA

Renew???? }

2014

2014

2014

•Beetles

detected east of

Fort McMurray

•Expand leading edge

detection grid in NW

3 Million Ha

SALVAGE OPERATIONS Mid-term wood supply

•NFPS MPB

Workshop

HINTON

Outbreak reaches (8.5 Million Ha)

•1st Mass dispersal event

•Calgary MPB Summit

Environment and Sustainable Resource Development

The Trigger…..

Map credit: Dr. Barry Cooke, CFS

Rate of Spread…..

Map credit: Dr. Barry Cooke, CFS

The Extent…..

2013

Map credit: Aaron McGill AESRD

11

INCREASED MONITORING AND RESPONSE

RISK ANALYSIS - STAND SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING

What is being done?

• Regulatory controls and restrictions • Regional Risk Analysis and training • Support R&D MPB in Jack pine (TRIA Network) • Increased surveillance, boreal and parks • Directed response action (Cypress Hills) • Participate in fRI MPBEP • Building multi-jurisdictional partnerships

West block Cypress Hills

Collaborative Response Action • Memorandum of

agreement (MOA) between governments of AB and SK

• Completed third year of multi-year agreement

• Annual “work plan” developed through SMAC meetings

• Work focuses on “leading edge” of outbreak Tree baiting network to

monitor leading edge;

Level 1 control action in Slave Lake and Marten Hills areas

Work focuses on “leading edge” of outbreak in AB

• Deployment and maintenance of the tree baiting network to monitor beetle presence in the leading edge;

• Level 1 (Fall & burn) control action in Slave Lake and Marten Hills areas

13 Map credit: Aaron McGill AESRD

SK & AB leading edge…..

Increased monitoring – boreal tree-baiting

Increased monitoring - boreal Aerial Surveys North CLAWR

Increased monitoring - boreal Aerial Surveys South CLAWR

2014 and beyond… Rate of spread???

≠

Photo: L. Maclauchlan Photo: R. McIntosh

The Leading Edge - Uncertainties

• Poorly connected stands

But we don’t fully understand dispersal in novel environment

• Climate suitability – low

but predicted to improve

• Novel host environment

But Jack pine more attractive to MPB and less capable of defending themselves (Carroll 2013)

NOW is the opportunity to slow the spread through aggressive action and drive leading edge populations into extinction

21

Cypress Hills Inter-provincial Park

22

23

MPB West Block -2013

2 434

182

257280

417444

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

No. Trees Controlled

Year

2014 and beyond….???

• Continue collaboration with AB to implement coordinated “slow the spread” action(s) IN Alberta

• Continue to monitor tree baits in expanded grid to further delineate the leading edge and provide early detection capacity

• Work to fill the knowledge gaps in high risk pathways (Cold Lake Air Weapons Range)

• Continue to Support R&D initiatives (e.g. TRIA-MPB Network; change detection mapping) to fill knowledge gaps and inform decisions

Thank you

Ministry of Environment

Forest Service Branch

Box 3003

Prince Albert, Canada S6V 6G1

www.environment.gov.sk.ca