01_Technical Review_080613

7/27/2019 01_Technical Review_080613

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Rupee - ( 0/3 ) → Rupee Recovered from Low ( 38.2%

Support ) has broken up on the upside & resistance

54.931, 55.821,56,57 has been Broken. Downside Levels

are 55.821, 54.931, 54.192, 53.856 & 53.170 & 51.905

Also Alligator has opened its mouth Upwards & AO is

starting to get +ve … (-ve for Rupee)

Rupee is weakned by strengthing Dollar ($ after falling

from 84.34 to 83.20 has given Upward Breakout to Weak

Rupee) … Rupee is continuing weaking trend -ve for stock

markets

Nifty - ( 0/3 ) → Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631

(22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto

4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012

Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to

6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-01-

2013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013)

After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-05-

2013) There is now Ongoing correction (if Higher Low is

formed at 5869 OR 5791) to restart Sideways or Uptrend

Fresh Breakout above Previous High of 6102 6140 6110

has Failed as Price moved below 6000 & 5970 Levels.... &

Now Above 200 MA (May be this is Retest on Upside ...

Neckline of 5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured

Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to

6229 is Possible .... Need to be careful )

Dimensions →

Price → Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of

2532 - 4534 - 4775 was threatned & break that @ 5453 is

SAVED (Upon Fall below 5480 target upto 5500 50% &

Now major Fib target @ 61.8 - 5245 is Retracement of

Move from 4800 to 6100.)

Volume → After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5961 ) After

Relentless Upmove & Nifty is now free to build Short

Position / Rally but Mid Month Reversal have failed… (As

per Nifty's 56 Day Cycle 13-05-2013 coincides with Mid

month Reversal date has broken down only for 1 day &

now broken on upside - Next Reversal day to check is 08-

07-2013 (+56Days)... This is a Vertical Rally has been

Halted & there is Breakdown upto 5967 ....Bearish Vew

Continues .. Bull Market Uptrend may start after Nifty

Previous Life High is taken out (Sideways trend may start if

higher low is created...)

Review_08/06/13 - ( Rating - 1/15 ) → Extremely Negative - High Risk - Rupee has Broken Down / Nifty is also Breaking

Down - Higher Low needs to be in Place for sideways trend) / AD is -ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is +ve (--) Big

Picture is Negative

| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |



Sentiments → Sentiments are now -ve as people are

waiting of signs of Weekness to Short at these High Levels

& Not willing to participate in this Rally at High Levels as

Risk Reward is not favourable . -ve Earnings are reported

in Q4 with Many -ve Surprises (Started with Infy SBI Being

Punished & Hindunilvr, Lichsgfin being Rewarded) -Delicate Political condition Looms Large

TIme → Down Trend Might Continue Upto Mid Month

Reversal Date of 14-06-2013 & Quadapuchi (Quaterly)

Settlement is on 3rd Friday of 21-06-2013 Markets can

Turn Choppy

Open Intrest (OI) → FUTURE-CMP(5895.2) is currently in

BEAR trend. The Nifty Jun series is trading at Rs 14.2

premium to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all

series contract Nifty future net shed 1.08 lakh position in

OI and this accounts to -0.77 % of Total OI in all series andcumulatively trading in average premium of 34.4 Rs to

Underlying. The OI is also not increasing with trend so be

careful

Options-At current price strike the activity is tilted to put

side and writing of put is increasing.The Nifty Put option is

trading at premium so market is expecting bearishnesNifty

call option has added Rs 37.25 crore in value on

cumulative basis

P & F Chart → H & S Breakout Has failed & 6000 Has been

broken; Close below 5950 Opens target Upto 5500 54705300 & 4950

Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) → (Rating 1 for Each +ve)

Advance Decline Line (0/1) → If the Nifty is rising but the

number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is

in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse.

Since AD Line is Lower Than -26000 is moving Down with

Downtrend (AD Line is still not Breaking Out) Mid Cap

participation is missing) as some Balance in AD needs to be

achievedSome Midcaps are reverse (advancing) to balance the Line

& recover from Over Sold Levels - But some Large caps are

at life time Lows & all time favourites are starting to

Decline



Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) → To Incorporate

Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in

that it moves opposite to the Nifty

TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying

pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in

stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in

stocks that are DecliningNifty has near 1.1 after declining from 1.3 indicating Still

more stocks (Midcaps & Largecaps ) are Declining & More

Blue chips are being sold Rather Than Midcaps (Midcap

Index is constant)& More Stocks Declining Confirms Down

Trend

NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) → More Stocks in the

index making new highs versus new lows if Number isReducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicate

Market’s Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment &

Trend) is Positive

There is Huge Decrease in Highs & Low Numbers into their

52 week High v/s towards Lows (Nearly Zero) ....weakness

in upward Trend Strength & Strength in Down Trend

India Vix →Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a

weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers

hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a

factor & used in Direct Coorlation with the VIX & They

Together have Indirect correlation with Index ie Vix & DVol

is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is

Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix

& DVOL leads to Sidewise Index

VIX is in Range of 13 to 19 Since Jun'12 - Fear/ Volitality isDecreasing with Down Trend indicating Traders expecting

Down Trend ( Down Volume & Down Tick ).... But Vix has

Furthur Room to Move Up / Down if Nifty Continous its

Move Up it has Room to move down & Fear is not

increasing with Down Trend.



Bonds - ( 1/3 ) → Indirect Correlation with Stock Market;

Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity

(Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period = Lower Rate

(Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock

Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by

Market)

Both 10Y & 3Y Bond are at All time Lows but creating

Double Bottom & Started increasing & 10 Year Rate is near

3 Year Rate & 3Year Rate in increasing Higher Relative to10Year Rate (Caution) ..… Correct Relation is 10Y ROI > 3Y

ROI but 13Y ROI < 10Y ROI but that may be due to Low

Volumes

Commodities Gold (Inverse Relations) → Also Commodities Crude is moving Down,Gold has Recovered from Break

Down Rangebound (Between 1380 to 1420) Support of 1320 has Hold ( Downwards move towards 1250 - As Per Mr

Peter Brandt) towards its earlier Lows ( & Possible Shakeout for Recovery Rally to get smart money Out is Now rejected

... ( Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic Growth (Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions

are increasing.

Currency & World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) → China is Recover is Slow & US Markets has given a Breakdown

upto 1626 after Fresh Breakout from 1629 / 1655 & Europe CAG DAX & FTSE are Now Down (Break Down) from There

Highs (Global Markets are showing Syncronisation in the Breakdowns Confirming Breakdown across Globe... Japan Yen

Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market collapse caused Panik across Globe after Fed's Liquidity Reversal Hints (Market Build

Gains on Bad Reports & Declines on Good Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity (QE Reversal)..... Hence

Global Liquidity is Moving towards World Equity Markets .. Ashwani Informed that Money is Moving from Emerging

Market to Developed Markets & Both Needs to move in Tendom (Hence Fear of Developing Markets going to Top Out

with US making a Double Top @ 1545.95 is out of way & All Equity Markets EXCEPT US are Declining - Risk OFF Mode)

....

A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt

B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate

Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B



The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise → ( 2/10 ) Negative

INDEX → HDFC → At life Highs but Distribution being done at the Top of Range Since Last 7 Days

FINANCE → ICICIBANK → Breakdown after testing of previous Highs

ENERGY → RELIANCE → Did not Reach Previous highs Now falling to the bottom of the range

IT → INFY → Up from Support but at 52 weeks Low

FMCG → ITC → Break Down from Life time Highs

AUTO → TATAMOTORS → Breakdown after testing of previous HighsPHARMACEUTICALS → SUNPHARMA → Breaking Down from Life highs

CAPITAL GOODS → L&T → Break Down from Previous Highs

METALS → TATASTEEL → Up from Support Consolidating at lows

CEMENT → ULTRACEMCO → Breaking Down of Consolidation at Top still in Six Month Range

NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of

them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions.

Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any

market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.

01_Technical Review_080613

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