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Measurement,ImpactandPolicyImplicationsofTradePolicyUncertainty
YUMiaojie,ZHUHuihuang
(ChinaCenterforEconomicResearch/NationalSchoolofDevelopment,
PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China)
Abstract:Atpresent,withtheintensifiedtradeprotectionism,globaltradepolicyuncertaintyis
rising.Thus,itisnecessarytoanalyzetheimpactoftradepolicyuncertaintyontheeconomy.Thispaper
reviewsrecentresearchontradepolicyuncertaintyfromthreedimensions:themeasurementoftrade
Page 2
policyuncertainty,theimpactoftradepolicyuncertaintyanditspolicyimplications.Tradeuncertainty
referstofactorsthatsubstantiallyaffectcompanyexportsbeyondtariffs.Inactualeconomicactivities,
evenwhentheaveragetariffhasnotchanged,ifthetradepolicyuncertaintyrisessharply,itwilllead
enterprisestodelayinvestmentandbecomeunlikelytoexporttonewmarkets,whichwillhavesevere
consequencesontheeconomy.Furthermore,wefindthatmaintainingastabletariffpolicyandsigning
tradeagreementscanhelpthecountrytoreducetradepolicyuncertainty,thereforeenhancingcompany
exportsanddrivingeconomicgrowth.Whenagovernmentdecidestoimplementatariffthreat,
considerationshouldbegiventopotentialincreaseofthecountry'stradepolicyuncertainty,resultingin
additionalwelfarelosses.
Keywords:internationaleconomicsandtrade;literaturereview;tradepolicyuncertainty;
investment;realoptionmodel
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