Volume 108, No. 47 www.usda.gov/oce/weather-drought-monitor November 23, 2021 (Continued on page 3) Contents Extreme Maximum & Minimum Temperature Maps ...... 2 Temperature Departure Map .......................................... 3 November 16 Drought Monitor & U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook ................................ 4 National Weather Data for Selected Cities ..................... 5 National Agricultural Summary ....................................... 8 Crop Progress and Condition Tables ............................. 9 International Weather and Crop Summary ................... 13 Bulletin Information & Snow Cover Map ....................... 24 WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN or the second week in a row, long periods of open weather favored late-season fieldwork, allowing Midwestern corn and soybean harvesting to near completion. Even when Midwestern precipitation arrived late in the week, showers were mostly light and confined to the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Across the remainder of the eastern half of the country, significant precipitation was limited to parts of the Northeast and southern sections of Texas and Florida. Harvesting of Southern crops such as cotton and peanuts F U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE National Agricultural Statistics Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board HIGHLIGHTS November 14 – 20, 2021 Highlights provided by USDA/WAOB
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Volume 108, No. 47 www.usda.gov/oce/weather-drought-monitor November 23, 2021
(Continued on page 3)
Contents
Extreme Maximum & Minimum Temperature Maps ...... 2 Temperature Departure Map .......................................... 3 November 16 Drought Monitor & U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook ................................ 4 National Weather Data for Selected Cities ..................... 5 National Agricultural Summary ....................................... 8 Crop Progress and Condition Tables ............................. 9 International Weather and Crop Summary ................... 13 Bulletin Information & Snow Cover Map ....................... 24
WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN
or the second week in a row, long periods of open weather favored late-season fieldwork, allowing
Midwestern corn and soybean harvesting to near completion. Even when Midwestern precipitation arrived late in the week, showers were mostly light and confined to the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Across the remainder of the eastern half of the country, significant precipitation was limited to parts of the Northeast and southern sections of Texas and Florida. Harvesting of Southern crops such as cotton and peanuts
F
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE National Agricultural Statistics Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board
HIGHLIGHTS November 14 – 20, 2021
Highlights provided by USDA/WAOB
2 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 3 (Continued from front cover) continued to quickly advance, following earlier delays. Meanwhile, another week of dry weather on the Plains further limited winter wheat establishment, despite late-season warmth. Some of the most critical moisture shortages were noted in parts of Montana and across the southern half of the High Plains. Elsewhere, dry weather from California to the central and southern Rockies contrasted with ongoing wetness in the Pacific Northwest. Early-week flooding struck parts of western Washington, while occasional precipitation spread as far inland as the northern Rockies and southward into northwestern California. Weekly temperatures averaged 5 to 10°F above normal across northern and central sections of the Rockies and Plains. Similar readings, at least 5°F above normal in many locations, stretched from southern California to the southern Plains. In fact, generally mild weather from the Pacific Coast to the Plains contrasted with near- or below-normal temperatures in most areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward. The coolest weather, relative to normal, stretched from the eastern Corn Belt into the middle Atlantic States. Early in the week, river flooding peaked across the Pacific Northwest, west of the northern Cascades, following relentless rainfall. During the first 16 days of November, measurable rain fell each day in locations such as Quillayute, WA, and Astoria, OR, totaling 19.09 and 9.84 inches, respectively. Quillayute also netted a daily-record rainfall (4.01 inches) for November 15. Significant flooding occurred along the Skagit River, where the gauge near Mount Vernon, WA, was destroyed by debris. However, supplemental data indicated that the Skagit River near Mount Vernon crested at least 8.81 feet above flood stage on November 15, representing the highest water level since November 30, 1995. Farther upstream, the Skagit River near Concrete, WA, also crested on November 15, rising 10.93 feet above flood stage to achieve its highest level since November 6, 2006. Near La Push, WA, a record crest (7.93 feet above flood stage) was established along the Bogachiel River (previously, 5.64 feet on November 6, 2006). Finally, the Nooksack River at Ferndale, WA, climbed to its highest level since November 27, 1963, rising 5.76 feet above flood stage on the 15th. Farther inland, high winds raked the Northwest and northern sections of the Rockies and Plains. On November 15, wind gusts were clocked to 63 mph in Pullman, WA; 62 mph in Spokane, WA; and 61 mph in Coeur d’Alene, ID. The following day, Glasgow, MT, set a monthly record with a gust to 69 mph (previously, 68 mph on November 13, 2007). Elsewhere in Montana, November 16 peak gusts included 87 mph in Cut Bank; 76 mph in Jordan; and 63 mph in Helena. On the same date in neighboring Wyoming, gusts reached 82 mph in Buffalo and 67 mph in Lander. However, only small precipitation amounts occurred across the interior Northwest, with Riverton, WY, still awaiting its first November rain or snow. In the Colorado Rockies, the 147-acre Kruger Rock Fire was sparked on November 16 when high winds downed a tree which struck a power line; by week’s end, the fire was fully contained. Meanwhile, occasional snow showers accompanied surges of cool air downwind of the Great Lakes. From November 13-15, snowfall in Marquette, MI, totaled 9.1 inches. Elsewhere, scattered, mid- to late-week showers occurred generally along and east of a line from southern Texas to the lower Great Lakes region. On November 18, Brownsville, TX, collected a daily-record rainfall of 2.25 inches. A few heavier showers also dotted Florida, where Daytona Beach measured a daily-record sum (0.55 inch) for November 18. Record-setting warmth lingered early in the week across southern California. From November 11-14, Burbank, CA, reported four consecutive highs of 90°F or greater for the first time since November 2-5, 1997. Burbank’s achieved a daily-record high on November 14 with a
reading of 93°F. Elsewhere in California, daily-record highs for the 14th included 96°F in Woodland Hills and 93°F in Palm Springs. Warmth also developed across Northwest, where consecutive daily-record highs occurred on November 14-15 in locations such as Yakima, WA (72 and 67°F), and Helena, MT (66 and 69°F). Farther south, consecutive daily-record highs were set on November 15-16 in San Angelo, TX (86 and 87°F, respectively), and Roswell, NM (86 and 84°F). Other record-setting highs for November 15 included 79°F in Burlington, CO, and Goodland, Russell, and Salina, KS. On November 16, highs soared to daily-record levels in Texas locations such as Childress (91°F), Lubbock (88°F), and Wichita Falls (87°F). Prior to 2021, Childress had reported single November days of 90-degree heat in only 8 other years: 1934, 1945, 1952, 2001, 2005, 2012, 2016, and 2017. The only later observance of a 90-degree reading in Childress was November 17, 2017, when the high reached 92°F. Warmth also briefly spread into the Midwest and East, where daily-record highs surged to 78°F (on November 16) in Springfield, MO, and 78°F (on November 18) in Danville, VA. Frigid weather fully engulfed the southern two-thirds of Alaska, with lingering mild conditions largely limited to the Arctic Coast. Weekly temperatures averaged 20 to 30°F below normal at several locations in southwestern and south-central Alaska. Bethel reported sub-zero minimum temperatures each day starting November 13, including a daily-record low of -17°F on the 17th. Following 11.9 inches of snow in Anchorage from November 10-12, the first sub-zero reading of the season occurred on the 16th, with a low of -3°F. Farther inland, Bettles registered lows ranging from -30 to -35°F from November 13-16. Although mostly dry weather accompanied cold conditions across the Alaskan mainland, heavy snow blanketed the southeastern part of the state. Juneau received 17.1 inches of snow from November 18-21, boosting its snow depth to 11 inches by the morning of the 21st. At the height of the snowy spell, Juneau collected a daily-record total (6.7 inches) on November 20. Farther south, warm, mostly dry weather prevailed in Hawaii. Although the month’s first measurable rain fell on November 14 in Kahului, Maui (0.04 inch), and Honolulu, Oahu (0.01 inch), dry weather soon returned. In addition, Kahului posted a daily record-tying high of 90°F on November 20. Kahului has achieved at least four 90-degree readings during November in each of the last 4 years (2018-2021), after only attaining the feat sporadically (1968, 1984, 1990, 1995, and 1996) in earlier years. Through November 20, month-to-date rainfall at the state’s major airport observation sites ranged from 0.04 inch (3 to 4 percent of normal) in Kahului and Honolulu to 2.27 inches (24 percent) in Hilo, on the Big Island.
4 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 5
Weather Data for the Week Ending November 20, 2021
8 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
National Agricultural Summary November 15 – 21, 2021
Weekly National Agricultural Summary provided by USDA/NASS
HIGHLIGHTS
Most of the nation was drier than normal during the week ending November 21. In contrast, some locations in Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, Montana, Washington, and southern Texas recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of coastal Washington recorded more than 6 inches of rain during the week. Meanwhile, most of the western half of the
nation reported warmer-than-normal weather. Most of the Great Plains, Rockies, and Southwest noted temperatures 6°F or more above normal. In contrast, much of the eastern half of the nation was moderately cooler than normal. Parts of the mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley recorded temperatures 2°F or more below normal.
Corn: Ninety-five percent of the 2021 corn acreage was harvested by week’s end, 2 percentage points behind last year but 3 points ahead of the 5-year average pace. Harvest progress was complete or nearing completion in 15 of the 18 estimating states. Soybean: Soybean harvest across the nation was 95 percent complete by week’s end, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 point behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress was complete or nearing completion in 14 of the 18 estimating states. Winter Wheat: Nationwide, producers had sown 96 percent of the intended 2022 winter wheat acreage by November 21, two percentage points behind last year and 1 point behind the 5-year average. Planting progress was complete or nearing completion in 16 of the 18 estimating states. Nationwide, 86 percent of the winter wheat acreage had emerged by November 21, two percentage points behind last year and 1 point behind the 5-year average. Winter wheat emergence advanced by 10 percentage points or more during the week in Arkansas, California, Indiana, and North Carolina. As of November 21, forty-four percent of the 2022 winter wheat acreage was reported in good to excellent condition,
2 percentage points below the previous week but 1 point above the same time last year. Cotton: By November 21, seventy-five percent of the nation’s cotton acreage had been harvested, 1 percentage point behind last year but 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Cotton harvest advanced 10 percentage points or more during the week in 10 of the 15 estimating states. Sorghum: Ninety-four percent of the 2021 sorghum acreage had been harvested by November 21, three percentage points behind last year but 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest progress was complete or nearing completion in all estimating states. Other Crops: Ninety-two percent of the nation’s peanut acreage was harvested as of November 21, equal to last year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Peanut harvest advanced 10 percentage points or more during the week in Oklahoma and Texas. By November 21, ninety percent of this year’s sunflower crop was harvested, 1 percentage point behind last year but 10 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest progress was ahead of the 5-year average pace in all estimating states.
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 9
Crop Progress and Condition Week Ending November 21, 2021
Weekly U.S. Progress and Condition Data provided by USDA/NASS
Prev Prev Nov 21 5-Yr Prev Prev Nov 21 5-Yr Prev Prev Nov 21 5-Yr
Year Week 2021 Avg Year Week 2021 Avg Year Week 2021 Avg
November 14-20, 2021 International Weather and Crop Highlights and Summaries provided by USDA/WAOB
HIGHLIGHTS
EUROPE: Dry, warm weather prevailed over much of the continent, though heavy rain continued in Italy. WESTERN FSU: Seasonably cold weather ushered winter crops into dormancy. MIDDLE EAST: Drought concerns expanded across central and western portions of the region, while winter grain prospects remained mostly favorable in Iran. NORTHWESTERN AFRICA: Intensifying drought in Morocco and central Tunisia contrasted with more heavy rain in Algeria. EASTERN ASIA: Mild weather across eastern and southern China sustained wheat and rapeseed development.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Widespread showers throughout much of the region benefited seasonal rice and other crops, although unfavorably wet weather continued to plague coffee harvesting in Vietnam. AUSTRALIA: Drier weather overspread the eastern wheat belt, helping winter crop harvesting regain momentum. SOUTH AFRICA: Conditions favored emerging to vegetative summer crops in eastern sections of the corn belt. ARGENTINA: Much-needed rain fell in Argentina’s southern and northeastern summer crop areas. BRAZIL: Abundant rainfall maintained favorable conditions for soybeans in central and northeastern production areas, but moisture remained limited for corn and soybeans farther south.
Dry (Turkey)
Much-Needed Rain (C & NE Argentina)
Seasonably Cold (Western FSU) Mosly Warm &
Dry (Europe)
Favorably Drier (E Wheat Belt)
Showers
Showers (E Corn Belt)
Seasonal Rainfall
Mild Rain (Algeria)
Drought Intensifying (Morocco &
E Tunisia)
Rain Needed (S Brazil)
Heavy Rain (Italy)
Unfavorably Wet (Vietnam)
14 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
Dry, warm weather prevailed, though more heavy rain fell in Italy and Scandinavia. Sunny skies and above-normal temperature (1-4°C above normal) favored seasonal fieldwork and winter crop establishment over nearly all of Europe, although chilly conditions (up to 2°C below normal) were noted in Spain. However, short-term dryness and drought in west-central France (northern portions of Nouvelle-Aquitaine) continued to impact winter crop establishment, with 90-day rainfall locally less than 50 percent of normal. Likewise, short-term dryness (30-day rainfall less than 25 percent of
normal) has developed over central and southern Poland and neighboring environs, but longer-term precipitation remained near to above normal. Meanwhile, a stationary Mediterranean storm system continued to generate moderate to heavy rainfall (10-65 mm, locally more) in Italy as well as the islands of the central Mediterranean Sea, causing additional localized flooding. Similarly, a series of disturbances produced more heavy showers (25-120 mm) from northern England into Scandinavia, sustaining plentiful moisture supplies for winter wheat, barley, and rapeseed establishment.
EUROPE
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 15
Dry, chilly weather ushered winter crops into dormancy. Temperatures averaged 1 to 3° C below normal from central Ukraine into southwestern Russia, with 7-day average temperatures below 5°C for a second consecutive week indicating winter grains and oilseeds have gone dormant. Crops entered dormancy in good condition in Russia, while acute short-term dryness resulted in highly
variable, locally poor establishment in Ukraine and Moldova. However, winter crop yields are largely driven by spring precipitation and temperatures. This will be the last weekly summary for Western FSU. Coverage will resume in March 2022 to coincide with winter wheat breaking dormancy.
WESTERN FSU
16 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
Sunny skies across much of the region favored fieldwork in Iran but increased drought concerns elsewhere. After recent rain, dry weather in Iran promoted seasonal fieldwork and winter grain establishment, although orographically enhanced showers (10-80 mm) continued along the Caspian Sea Coast. Meanwhile, a slow-moving storm system produced moderate to heavy showers (10-80 mm) from northern Egypt into coastal Syria. Farther inland, isolated light showers (1-5 mm) did little to ease developing drought
from central Turkey into western Iraq; 60-day rainfall has tallied less than 50 percent of normal in these croplands, and moisture will be needed soon for wheat and barley establishment. Cool weather (2-5°C below normal) in Iran eased winter crops toward dormancy in climatologically colder northern growing areas. Conversely, temperatures up to 4°C above normal along the eastern Mediterranean Coast (daytime readings reaching 30°C) heightened water demands for emerging to vegetative winter grains.
MIDDLE EAST
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 17
Intensifying drought in Morocco and central Tunisia contrasted with more downpours in Algeria. Another week with little to no rain in Morocco’s primary growing areas plunged this region deeper into early-season drought. Cumulative rainfall deficits since September 1 have eclipsed 100 mm (less than 15 percent of normal) in the lowlands between the coast and the Atlas Mountains, with nearly all of this week’s rain (3-11 mm) falling outside of the country’s primary growing areas. While it is still early in the winter grain growing campaign, producers need widespread moisture soon for proper wheat and barley
establishment. Sunny skies also lingered over Tunisia, where season-to-date deficits varied significantly from the wetter north (80 percent of normal) to much drier conditions farther south in the country’s Steppe Region (less than 20 percent-of-normal rainfall since September 1). In between, another stationary Mediterranean storm system produced more heavy rainfall (20-125 mm) in north-central Algeria, with amounts diminishing rapidly farther inland. The downpours caused flooding near the coast, while the lighter showers inland were beneficial for winter grain establishment.
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA
18 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
Unseasonably mild weather returned to eastern and southern China, as weekly temperatures averaged up to 5°C above normal. The warmer-than-normal weather, along with abundant sunshine, promoted vegetative growth of both wheat and rapeseed,
improving overall crop conditions ahead of winter dormancy. Meanwhile, rainfall was generally l ight ( less than 10 mm) in the main winter crop areas, with the highest totals (up to 100 mm) confined to southern-most provinces.
EASTERN ASIA
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 19
Wet weather was reported throughout much of the region, benefiting seasonal crops. Seasonable wetness continued across Malaysia and Indonesia, as 25 to 100 mm (locally more) supported oil palm and main-season rice. In fact, southern Indonesia (Java) and some of the surrounding areas were recording one of the wettest starts to the rainy season in the last 30 years.
Meanwhile, widespread showers (25-100 mm or more) in the Philippines benefited winter-grown rice establishment, although more rain would be welcome in the drier sections of the north. Elsewhere, heavier-than-usual showers (over 200 mm) continued in central Vietnam, maintaining concerns over reduced quality and yields of coffee beans.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
20 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
In the wake of last week’s heavy rain, drier weather overspread a large portion of the eastern wheat belt. Mostly sunny skies in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales, and northern Victoria helped dry mature winter grains and oilseeds and allowed harvesting to regain momentum. The sunny skies triggered additional sorghum planting as well and promoted summer crop germination, emergence, and establishment. Elsewhere in the wheat belt, pockets of rain (10-25 mm) in southern
New South Wales and South Australia continued to disrupt winter crop harvesting and likely caused further reductions in crop quality. In contrast, dry weather covered most of Western Australia, favoring wheat, barley, and canola drydown and harvesting. Cooler-than-normal weather prevailed throughout the wheat belt. Temperatures averaged 1 to 3ºC below normal in Western Australia, South Australia, and southern Queensland, and generally 4 to 6ºC below normal in Victoria and New South Wales.
AUSTRALIA
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 21
Warm, showery weather maintained overall favorable conditions for emerging summer crops in eastern sections of the corn belt. Rainfall totaled 10 to 25 mm from southern Limpopo to northern KwaZulu-Natal, an area that included Mpumalanga and Gauteng. Drier conditions prevailed elsewhere in the corn belt, including eastern sections of Free State that recently recorded beneficial rainfall. Above-normal temperatures (daytime highs reaching the lower and middle 30s degrees C)
fostered rapid rates of development but also increased evaporative losses in unplanted fields. Additional rain will be needed in upcoming weeks to properly condition fields for planting farther west, including commercial white corn production areas in North West and Free State. Elsewhere, light showers (5-25 mm) were generally confined to locations closest to the southern coast, as seasonably drier weather favored seasonal fieldwork farther inland.
SOUTH AFRICA
22 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin November 23, 2021
Much-needed rain provided timely moisture for germination and establishment of summer crops in key production areas in central and northeastern Argentina. Rainfall totaled 10 to 50 mm throughout Buenos Aires and in neighboring locations in La Pampa, Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios. The moisture was particularly timely in drought-plagued sections of the lower Parana River Valley (southwestern Entre Rios and environs). Heavier rain fell farther north, with 50 to 100 mm – locally higher – reported from northern Santa Fe northward into Paraguay. While timely for summer crops, including cotton, the heaviness of the northern showers stalled fieldwork and may have caused some lodging to unharvested wheat. Meanwhile, drier conditions returned to western farming
areas (western Cordoba to Salta) following last week’s beneficial rainfall. Although weekly temperatures averaged near to below normal throughout the region, daytime highs reached the lower and middle 30s (degrees C) in all major agricultural districts. Frost (nighttime lows dropping to near 0°C) was confined to traditionally cooler locations of southern Buenos Aires, likely causing little if any impact on immature winter grains. According to the government of Argentina, sunflowers were 91 percent planted as of November 18, 4 points behind year’s pace; cotton was 25 percent planted, compared with 27 percent last year. Corn and soybeans were 48 and 32 percent planted, respectively, while wheat was 18 percent harvested, outpacing last year by 2 points.
ARGENTINA
November 23, 2021 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 23
Widespread, locally heavy showers favored emerging to vegetative soybeans in major production areas of central and northeastern Brazil. Rainfall totaled 25 to 100 mm over a large area spanning Mato Grosso, Goiás, and neighboring locations stretching from Mato Grosso do Sul and western Minas Gerais northward through Maranhão. The wet weather had the additional benefit of keeping temperatures to seasonable levels (daytime highs reaching the lower and middle 30s degrees C). Farther south, however, rainfall continued to trend below normal, with large areas of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul receiving just 5 to 25 mm. Summer warmth (temperatures reaching the
lower and middle 30s) sustained high moisture requirements of southern summer crops, which are in or nearing reproductive phases of development. According to the government of Rio Grande do Sul, wheat was 85 percent harvested as of November 18; corn and soybeans were 85 and 52 percent planted, respectively, with 31 percent of emerged corn either flowering or entering filling. Wheat was 97 percent harvested in Parana as of November 16, while first-crop corn and soybeans were 100 and 95 percent planted, respectively. Corn was entering reproduction in Paraná, underscoring the need for a return to more seasonable rainfall and temperatures.
BRAZIL
The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (ISSN 0043-1974) is jointly prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Publication began in 1872 as the Weekly Weather Chronicle. It is issued under general authority of the Act of January 12, 1895 (44-USC 213), 53rd Congress, 3rd Session. The contents may be redistributed freely with proper credit. Correspondence to the meteorologists should be directed to: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, NOAA/USDA, Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, USDA South Building, Room 4443B, Washington, DC 20250. Internet URL: www.usda.gov/oce/weather-drought-monitor E-mail address: [email protected] An archive of past Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletins can be found at https://usda.library.cornell.edu/, keyword search "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin".
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE World Agricultural Outlook Board Managing Editor....................................... Brad Rippey (202) 720-2397 Production Editor.................................... Brian Morris (202) 720-3062 International Editor.............................. Mark Brusberg (202) 720-2012 Agricultural Weather Analysts.................................... Harlan Shannon
and Eric Luebehusen National Agricultural Statistics Service Agricultural Statistician and State Summaries Editor…..……….………...….
Irwin Anolik (202) 720-7621
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service/Climate Prediction Center Meteorologists...................Brad Pugh, Adam Allgood, and Rich Tinker
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