© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme.

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UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios

Richard Lamb

UK Climate Impacts Programme

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UKCIP

Set up by UK Government in 1997

Funded by Defra; based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

“helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”

Focus on adaptation, given necessity of mitigation

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How UKCIP operates

Facilitates relationships between 3 groups of key actors

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UKCIP08

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CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCIP08 UKCIPnext

Background to UKCIP08 UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 Each version has become more detailed, building upon:

improved scientific knowledge increased computing power stakeholder requirements

Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time Audience has evolved and grown

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Dedicated UKCIP08 interactive website

Everything will be available in one place Key findings

Reports

Pre-prepared maps and graphs.

Interactive user interface (to give customisable output)

Weather Generator

Online help and user guidance

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UKCIP08 layered approach

Newspaper advertNewspaper advert

Recommendation from sales advisorRecommendation from sales advisor

Internet research (multiple sources)Internet research (multiple sources)

Key FindingsKey Findings

Published materialPublished material

Customisable outputCustomisable output

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UKCIP08 principles

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1. Examination of the uncertainty associated with the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

2. Assessment of the quality of model version results from the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

3. Incorporation of results from other climate models

UKCIP08 principles

UKCIP08 based on three important principles:

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Modelling uncertainties – UKCIP02 as a starting point

UKCIP02Medium-High Emissions

Summer 2080s

Size of

change

Time

This gives one future climate change outcome...

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Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08

Size of change

Time

31 parameter values

~300 versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

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Size of change

Time

Single results from other IPCC climate models

Modelling uncertainties – different models give different results

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Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08

Size of change

Time Count

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Modelling uncertainty – PDFs are modified to incorporate single runs of other IPCC models

Size of change

Probability

Single results from other IPCC climate models

included

UKCIP08 “probabilistic

climate projection”

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Using UKCIP08

What users wanted

Address the limitations of previous UK climate scenarios Improved consideration and quantification of associated

uncertainties – probabilistic information

Improved spatial and temporal details

More information about climate change in the marine environment

Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface)

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Greater spatial and temporal detail

• 25km X 25km grid

One PDF for each of these

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Greater spatial and temporal detail

• Administrative regions

•25km grid

• Pre-defined aggregated areas

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Greater spatial and temporal detail

• River basins

•25km grid

• Pre-defined aggregated areas

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Greater spatial and temporal detail

• 5km grid

• Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature

• Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily weather consistent with the climate projections (over land areas)

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Provides a statistical expression of future climate at daily time-scales

Allows exploration of climate variables at daily time scale

Adjust observed data using change factors randomly taken from a PDF

Future 30-year time period simulated many times – long sequences of daily output that will be consistent with the UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections. Uses observed climate (1961 to 1995) at daily time scale

The UKCIP08 Weather Generator

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• Climate change for marine regions

• Sea areas based on Defra “Charting Progress” report

• 9 data sets available

•Probabilistic Data

How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail

PDF available for each area

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•Storm surge model

•12km resolution•Not probabilistic

How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail

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•Sub-surface model

•12km resolution

•Not probabilistic

•Salinity, temperature and currents

How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail

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Marine Projections

Probabilistic projections of changes to surface air temperature, precipitation, windspeed and cloud

Absolute sea-level rise over a single UK domain, plus relative sea-level rise for a areas of the coastline

Probabilistic-like projections of extreme water levels (storm-surges) for 2-50yr return periods over the European Shelf – 12 km resolution.

Single projection of changes to ocean subsurface temperature, salinity, E & W currents at 12km over the European Shelf

Wave information for the UK as a whole and for coastal regions. Medium emission scenario only

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2020s 2050s 2080s

How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail

2030s

2040s

2050s

2020s

2060s

2070s

2080s

UKCIP02

Three 30-year time periods

UKCIP08

Seven overlapping 30-year time periods

2010 2040 2070 2099

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Change

Probability

LargerSmaller

UKCIP08 will present probabilistic climate projections for 3 emissions scenarios labelled as Low, Medium and High emissions (B1, A1B and A1FI)

UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections do not address emissions uncertainty

Future emissions of greenhouse gases are used to drive climate models to project future climate – we cannot know what actual future emissions will be

Important effect beyond ~2050s

Warning!

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Supporting the use of UKCIP08

Have completed a series of awareness raising workshops

Post-launch training events:

Will cover entire UK

Will introduce UKCIP08 to new users and allow users to get “hands on” with the user interface

Will be supported by e-learning

Training

User Guidance

Guidance on ways in which the information provided by UKCIP08 can be used

Will include worked examples, frequently asked questions and getting started section

To be updated and revised based on users’ experience once UKCIP08 is available

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[email protected].

uk

Keep up to date at

www.ukcip08.net