® The C4I Revolution: Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, & Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has Done Improves National Security Robert David Steele.

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The C4I Revolution:Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, &

Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has Done Improves National Security

Robert David SteeleOSS.NET

9 January 2003San Antonio, Texas

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9-11: Systemic Failure

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9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot

• Collection: – Satellites deaf

– Spies incompetent

• Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode

• Translation: lack of personnel or funds

• Processing: no single central OpIntel “plot”

• Analysis– Did not connect the

dots (dots found to have been known)

– Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history)

• Liaison: “business as usual,” no demands

• Mind-set: muddled

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9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog

• World Trade Center 1st Bombing– Sidelined to law

enforcement

– Documents not translated

– Ignored bin Laden’s open declaration of war

– No change to visa or border security process

• Global Terrorism– Ignored warnings on

cockpit and airport safety (industry against)

– Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as “cost of doing business”

– Accepted lack of action by other nations

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Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding

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50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

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World War III Players

Bacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Companies

Citizens

® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

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Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

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Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6

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Global Threats to Local Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced66 Countries

Food Security33 Countries

Child Soldiers41 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common80 Countries

Censorship Very High62 Countries

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Asymmetric War

• Whatever it takes--– Fight dirty

– Fight smart

– Sabotage

– Bug bombs

– Electronic attack

– Anthrax = panic

– “Ju jitsu” warfare

• $500K = $100B loss

13

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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers

ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation

MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas

ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire

DATACorruption

Public Health

Vulnerabilities on the

Home Front

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Individual as Threat

and Target

State as Threat

and Target

Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”

Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home

Offense Against Fixed Ground

Offense Against Distributed Groups

OLDNEW

PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR

STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR

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Unbalanced Power

Smart Mobs• Liberated Thinking• Nomadic Connections• Global Grid Power• Swarmed Resources• 24/7 Always On• Geospatial Foundation• Reputation is Power

Dumb Organizations• Stove-Pipe Drones• Hard Copy Files• File Clerks Weak Link• Locked-Up Resources• 9-to-5 Compartments• Legal Foundation• Power is Reputation

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Dealing With Smart Mobs

Does Not Work• Nuclear Bombs• Aircraft Carriers• Tanks & Artillery• Secret Satellites• Not So Secret Spies• Young Kid Analysts• Political Bluffing

Could Possibly Work• Deep Understanding• Financial Incentives• Focused Education• Coalition Intelligence• Coalition Special Forces• Tracking Individuals• Killing Individuals

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TECHNICAL HUMAN

III - External InformationEXTERNAL

INTERNAL

OrganizationalMemory System

DataConversion

DataVisualization

HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval

TripReports

Churning(Rotationals)

LocalKnowledge

Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”

Internal Reporting

Vendor Reporting

Government Monitoring

Customer Monitoring

Environmental Monitoring

Technology Monitoring

CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)

PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)

Patents, Etc.

Trade Secrets

Meta-Data

Knowledge Capital™

Rolodexes/E-Mail

Personal Brand

Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing

Project/GroupManagement

Training

BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized

E-Commerce

Automated Analysis

Cell #

IV - Organizational Intelligence

I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work

C4I Big PictureFour processing quadrants

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Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form

Automated Extraction of Data Elements From

Text and Images

Standardizing and Converting Data Formats

Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data

Automated Foreign Language

Translation

Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information

Detection of Alert Situations

Clustering and Linking of

Related Data

Statistical Analysis to Reveal

Anomalies

Detection of Changing Trends

Interactive Search and Retrieval of

Data

Graphic and Map-Based Visualization

of Data

Modeling and Simulations

Collaborative Work

Notetaking and Organizing Ideas

Structured Argument Analysis

Desktop Publishing and

Word Processing

Production of Graphics, Videos and

Online Briefings

Revision Tracking and Realtime Group

Review

Finished Intelligence and Reporting

A

B

C

Processing Desktop:

Generic Analytic Functionalities

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Processing DesktopNo Easy Solutions

PlanPlan

ExtendExtend

ReportReport

ShareShare

OSALAT

Copernic CollectCollect

Excaliber

Topic

Analyst WorkbenchIdentifier, SIFT,

OnTopic, Labrador

GMS, Athens

Aerotext

Intelligent MinerFor Text

AnalyzeAnalyze

Content Extractor

Information Portal,Comprendium

ClearForest Suite

CrimeLink

Analyst Notebook

**C-4-U Scout

**CI Spider

**Knowledge.Works

**Market Signal Analyzer

**E-Sense

**Corporate Intelligence Service

**TextAnalyst**Plumtree Corporate Portal

**Powerize

**Strategy!

**Wincite

**WisdomBuilder

** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report

Groove?

EDGE?

MindMap?

SYSTRAN+?

Other CATALYST

Elements?

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New C4I Strategic Priorities

• Open Source Collection• Multi-Media Processing• Analytic Toolkits• Analytic Tradecraft• Defensive Security• Leadership• Training• Culture

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Administration’s Shortfalls

• Unbalanced Staff• Failed Intelligence• Maginot Line Military• No Counterintelligence• Education Broken• National IT Fragmented• Public Health Broken• Water - No Strategy• Energy - No Strategy

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White House Staff Upgrade

D irec to r G e n era lN a tio na l P o licy

D irec to r o fC lassif ied In te llig en ce

C h a irm a n, N a tion a lIn te llige nce C o u nc il

D irec to r , G lob a lIn fo rm a tio n F ou nd a tion

D irec to r G e n era lIn te llige nce

D irec to r G e n era lS tra tegy

D irec to r G e n era lN a tio n a l R e sea rch

C h ie f o f S ta ff

P res ide n t

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Security Shortfalls

• Intelligence Failed, Not Changing the Cultures

• Heavy Metal Military, Useless 90% of the Time

• No National Counterintelligence Agency or State & Local Counterintelligence, Private Sector Uncovered

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Prosperity Shortfalls

• Education and IT fragmented (content, connectivity, coordination, C4 security on Net)

• Public health unfunded, children falling by wayside

• No water or energy strategy

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South America Today15% of the Conflict, <5% of the Budget?

GOOD BAD UGLY

Costa Rica Haiti Mexico

Chile Colombia Brazil

Uraguay Venezuela Cuba

El Salvador Argentina All Others

Culture Violence Poverty

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OASCTF

StrategistsAdvise Policy

ConstabularyStabilize Failed States

Domestic ThreatsWater, Food, Health

Citizen EducationRegional Network

Force on ForceTrain Local Services

Electronic SecuritySet Standards, Stand Watch

Small WarsControl Territory

Ground TruthObserve with Warrior’s Eyes

Regional Agile Forces for Peace

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Regional Intelligence Center

OSINTHUMINT

IMINTSIGINT

Deputy for CollectionCountry B

DigitizationTranslation

VisualizationAnalytic Support

Deputy for ProcessingCountry C

WarningEstimativeCountries

Issues

Deputy for AnalysisCountry D

Chief of CenterCountry A

Deputy for CounterintelligenceCountry E

Deputy for Covert ActionCountry F

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Necessary Changes in EmphasisStriking a better balance

• Must strike a better balance between– technical (-) and human assets (+)

– secret (-) and open sources (+)

– hard power (-) and soft power (+)

– reaction (-) and prevention (+)

– unilateral (-) and truly multilateral combined operations (+)

®Proposed Strategy: 1 + iii:

Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities

BIG WAR SMALL WAR OOTW REAR AREA

Base Rights Small Wars Water Intelligence

Protect Canal Constabulary Food Border Patrol

Ground Truth Health Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Protect Oil

Training Environment

Public HealthEducation

50% 15% 20% 15%

250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 38B

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Contact Information

• Robert David Steele• OSS.NET• POB 369• Oakton, VA 22124• Email: [email protected]• Voice: (703) 242-1700• Fax: (703) 242-1711• Web: www.oss.net