© T. M. Whitmore Today Sub-Saharan Africa & Development.

© T. M. Whitmore

Today

•Sub-Saharan Africa & Development

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Last Time

•Infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa – especially HIV/AIDS

© T. M. Whitmore

Sub-Saharan Africa & Development

•Development = bettering of society or of a people (many definitions)Economic measuresNon-economic measures

© T. M. Whitmore

Least developed (poorest) countries I

•Low labor productivity -- mostly in agriculture

•Large proportion of population in poverty

•Food supplies are limited or risky•Health problems abound•Limited environmental variety or

natural resources - especially much aridity

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Least developed (poorest) countries II

•Isolated and/or land locked countries

•Heritage of colonialism and political mis-management

•Internal ethnic or political problems and/or conflicts & external conflicts

•Highly skewed wealth

© T. M. Whitmore

Many countries in SS Africa are among the least

developed•Why so many here?

Sahelian West AfricaHumid west AfricaEast and east-central Africa

Some of the “Least Developed”

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Why so many in SS Africa?•Remnants of colonialism •SS African environments and hu

man usesEnvironmental concerns

•Role of conflict•Importance of population &

Demography•Agricultural production•Role of disease •Role of debt•Structure of African economies

© John Wiley & Sons

Sahara

Sahel

Savanna

Equatorial

Sahel

Variability of annual rainfall

© John Wiley & Sons

Per capita water availability 2004 m3/yr

© Freeman & Co.

© T. M. Whitmore

Role of conflict•Origins, complexities, causes —

very complexEconomic — conflicts over limited resources

Ethnic — conflicts over powerCold war surrogates and over armaments

Colonial residuals only add to this

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Conflicts•Ethiopia — 30 yr civil war now with

drought•Uganda — colonial Brits set up

minority peoples as rulers•Rwanda and Burundi — ethnic and

political majority/minority •Somalia — cold war based political

struggle•Sudan — N-S religious (and other)

civil war for 30 yrs; •Sudan - Darfur

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Conflicts generate millions of Refugees and/or Internally

Displaced Persons•Refugees

Globally ~ 8.7 m (UNHCR ’05 report)

SS African ~ 2.6 m (~30% of global total)

•IDPs Global ~ 23.7 mSS African ~ 12.1 m (~50% of global total!)

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Role of population growth

•Population = ~ 788 m1.1 billion by 2025; 1.7 b by 2050

Vast areas empty, some very dense

•Growth rates (rate of natural increase) Very high at ~ 2.5%/yr.

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Consequences of growth•Very youthful population

~43% less than 15 yrs

•Population momentum> 1 b in your lifetime

•UrbanizationLow % now (~ 34%) but rapidly increasing

Urban problems: crowding, slums, environment & health, provisioning,

UN Projection 1992-2020

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SS African Demography•High death rates:

Average life expectancy at birth ~ 49 yrs (and declining in places!)

High Infant death rates ~ 9% (92/1000 live births)

•High birth rates TFR = 5.5!Declining less than elsewhereThis looks like a mid-stage 2 or

early 3 in the DT model

•Why is fertility so high?

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

44

5459

71

56

49

6770

76

65

Africa Asia LatinAmerica/Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

1965-1970 2000-2005

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Why has fertility not declined?

•Early age of marriage

•Desire for large families

•High infant and youth mortality rates

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Role of food and population•Local food production up over last 20

yrs – but declining per capitaTrails rest of world

• Imports not sufficient to fill need either

•Healthy diet is 2,500 - 3,000 kcal/day (USA diet ~ 3,500 kcal/day)No country in SS Africa (except S

Africa) has > 2,500 kcal/day29 of 45 have inadequate diets

Undernourished Populations 2000-2002

© Menzel & D’Aluiso (Hungary Planet)

1 week’s food for a family in Raleigh, NC

1 week’s food for a family in Chad © Menzel & D’Aluiso (Hungary Planet)

© T. M. Whitmore

“Natural” and social causes of the food problem

•Social Poverty - ~ 75% of population lives

on less than $2US/day Population growth: greater than growth of food crops

Political and other conflicts and refugees

Structural problemsGovernment and other

mismanagement“Structural Adjustment”

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day

2002Percent

50

7875

41

23 20

World South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia and thePacific

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

© Menzel & D’Aluiso (Hungary Planet)

1 week’s food for a family of Darfur refugees

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“Natural” causes of the food problem

•Production shortfallsDrought: major problem in 1970s and 1980s

Fertilizer “gap”

National Geographic Society

National Geographic Society

© International Fertilizer Industry Association

© International Fertilizer Industry Association