PIs: B. Helmuth, T. J. Hilbish, V. Lakshmi, D. Wethey, S. Woodin Post Docs: S. Chintalapati, S. Gilman, N. Mieszkowska, S. Pincebourde, A. Zenone Students and Techs: P. Brannock, S. Chhotray, E. Fly, K. Jones, S. Jones, R. Rognstad, A. Smith, L. Yamane Teachers: C. Dryden, B. Gill
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PIs: B. Helmuth, T. J. Hilbish, V. Lakshmi, D. Wethey, S. Woodin Post Docs: S. Chintalapati, S. Gilman, N. Mieszkowska, S. Pincebourde, A. Zenone
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PIs: B. Helmuth, T. J. Hilbish, V. Lakshmi, D. Wethey, S. Woodin
Post Docs: S. Chintalapati, S. Gilman, N. Mieszkowska, S. Pincebourde, A. Zenone
Students and Techs: P. Brannock, S. Chhotray, E. Fly, K. Jones, S. Jones, R. Rognstad, A. Smith, L. Yamane
Teachers: C. Dryden, B. Gill
Vari
able
of
inte
rest
(e.g
. Tem
pera
ture
)
Space (e.g. Latitude)Time (years, decades, centuries)
Ecological and Environmental Gradients
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Vari
able
of
inte
rest
(e.g
. Tem
pera
ture
)
Space (e.g. Latitude)Time (years, decades, centuries)
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Reality
Vari
able
of
inte
rest
(e.g
. Tem
pera
ture
)
Space (e.g. Latitude)Time (years, decades, centuries)
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Environmental “gradients” exist comprise signals of different frequencies; however, we often only pay attention to the low frequency components (e.g. long term trends)
E.g. Effects of PDO, ENSO in time counteract or amplify warming trends; effects of factors such as upwelling, local fog, etc. in space can trump latitude
Do we really know how patterns of environmental stressors change in space and time?
What is signal and what is noise? (and what frequencies do we need to measure and record?)
To an organism, all weather, climate, and climate change is local, at the level of the microhabitat
Seastar at ~12°C
Mussel at ~21°C
Two organisms exposed to identical microclimates can often show very different body temperatures
Physiological effects are both direct and indirect:◦ Mussels die at body temperatures in excess of
36°C when exposed at low tide (KA Smith) and/or when food supply is low (Schneider et al.) and/or when winter water temps <10.5°C (Wethey)
◦ Seastars reduce foraging on mussels when exposed to aerial body temperatures above 14°C (Pincebourde et al.)
Climate Models and Weather Data
Theoretical Models of Organism Body Temperature
Make and Test Hypotheses in space and Time
Realized Niches
Experimental Physiological
and Ecological Data
Primary Space Occupiers
Invasive spp. Keystone spp.
Fundamental Niches
Species Interactions (Competition, Predation, Facilitation)
(spatially and temporally explicit mapsof distribution, abundance, and growth)
Mussel temperatures have been steadily increasing since 2000: why?
Not surprisingly, magnitude of variables such as air and water temperature often vary from physiologically relevant factors such as body temperature
However, patterns both quantitatively and qualitatively vary
Out of phase
In phase
Body temperature vs air and water temperature of intertidal mussels
Helmuth 2009 J. Exp. Biol.
Comparative Patterns of Autocorrelation
’00 ’01 ‘02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Tatoosh
Boiler Bay
Strawberry Hill
Cape Arago
Trinidad
Cape Mendocino
Bodega
Santa Cruz
Monterey
Cambria
Jalama
Alegria
0/year 0 to 2/year > 2/year
West Coast Mussel Mortality Risk: Frequency of 36° C temperatures for at least 2 hours over 3 consecutive days
Marine Protected Areas: must work now and in the future
20-50 years
NowClimate Change
Abundance
Lati
tude
Lati
tude
Abundance
Climate Change
Now Climate Change20-50 years
4) Plan network of “stepping stones” in advance
By forecasting changes in abundance of key species, we can design MPAs so that distance between current and future stepping stones is set by dispersal ability of key species
Mechanistic forecasting has similar goals to statistical modeling, but does not assume all edges are set by same environmental factors
Time intensive, so focus on key “foundation” species that directly or indirectly drive patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem function
Can complement statistical approaches by targeting specific needs of resource managers