© OECD/IEA 2012 Mexico City, July 13, 2012 Richard H. Jones, Deputy Executive Director Dr. Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader,

© OECD/IEA 2012

Mexico City, July 13, 2012Richard H. Jones, Deputy Executive DirectorDr. Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader,

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

Sustainable future still in reach

© OECD/IEA 2012

Are we on track to reach a clean

energy future?

NO ✗

Can we get on track?

YES ✓

Is a clean energy transition urgent?

YES ✓

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas

Significant action is required to get back on track

Renewable power generation

42%Average annual

growth in Solar PV

27%Average annual growth in wind

75%Cost reductions in

Solar PV in just three years in

some countries

Renewables provide good news

© OECD/IEA 2012

Non-hydro sources spread out widely

Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regionsNumber of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly

0

20

40

60

80

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean

Nu

mb

er

of

co

un

trie

s (

>1

00

MW

)

IEA MRMR 2012

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000 OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGas with CCSGasCoal with CCSCoal

Low-carbon electricity: a clean core

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS

TW

h

© OECD/IEA 2012

Natural gas is not a panacea

Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’. CCS must play a role if gas use should continue to grow.

Natural Gas is not a panacea

© OECD/IEA 2012

The CCS infant must grow quickly

© OECD/IEA 2012

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt C

O2

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

50

100

150

200FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050

Pas

seng

er L

DV

sal

es (

mill

ion)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Manufacturers production/sales

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

rTranslating targets into action

© OECD/IEA 2012

Government targets need to be backed by policy action

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050,0.0

500,000.0

1000,000.0

1500,000.0

2000,000.0

2500,000.0

Billi

on h

ouse

hold

s Building sector challenges differ

OECD Non OECD

75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

Heating & Cooling: huge potential

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

© OECD/IEA 2012

Mexican CO2 emissions need to be halved by 2050

The power sector provides almost 40% of the cumulative CO2 reductions compared to the 4DS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

6DS

Agriculture, other 1%

Other transformation 7%

Power 37%

Industry 17%

Transport 23%

Buildings 16%

© OECD/IEA 2012

A portfolio of technologies are needed in power

Electricity savings, solar and wind power as key mitigation options in Mexico

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2030 2050

Mt C

O2

Additional emissions in 6DSFuel switching and efficiency improvemnetsElectricity savings

Other renewables

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Nuclear

CCS

2DS emissions

© OECD/IEA 2012

Greening the Mexican vehicle fleet

Most of the greening of the Mexican vehicle fleet is achieved by drop-in biofuels

© OECD/IEA 2012

End-use energy efficiency is critical

In the Mexican buildings sector, more than half of the reductions will come from decarbonisation of the power sector.

© OECD/IEA 2012

A low-carbon future for Mexico

Low-carbon development has already been made a priority

First successes have been achieved, more ambitious actions will be necessary to meet the 2DS

New Climate Law represents an excellent basis for action – need to maintain momentum!

Mexico is well placed for a “green” development strategy and ambitious climate goals

© OECD/IEA 2012

www.iea.org/etp

For much more, please visit

© OECD/IEA 2012

Assumptions- GDP and population

© OECD/IEA 2012

Assumptions- fossil fuel prices

© OECD/IEA 2012

Carbon prices (model result)

© OECD/IEA 2012

Visualising ETP Data – reductions

© OECD/IEA 2012

Visualising ETP Data – energy flows

© OECD/IEA 2012

Visualising ETP Data – fuel flows