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Longer-term: Longer-term: WEO 2010 WEO 2010 scenariosscenarios Global energy scenarios to 2035 New Policies Scenario is the central scenario in WEO-
2010> assumes cautious implementation of recently announced
commitments & plans, even if yet to be formally adopted > provides benchmark to assess achievements &
limitations of recent developments in climate & energy policy
Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only those policies that had been formally adopted by mid-2010> equivalent to the Reference Scenario of past Outlooks
The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting increase in average temperature to 2OC
The power and industry The power and industry sectors remainsectors remainkey drivers of global coal key drivers of global coal demanddemand
- 750- 500- 250 0 250 500 750 1 0001 250
Other*
Coal-to-liquids
Industry
Power generation
Mtce
OECD
China
India
Indonesia
Other non-OECD
Change in primary coal demand by sector and region in New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035
Demand in power generation accounts for almost 60% of the increase in global coal demand, while another 30% of the demand growth comes from the industry sector
Coal remains the backbone of Coal remains the backbone of global electricity generationglobal electricity generation
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current coal-fired capacity of the US, EU & Japan
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
TW
h China
India
Other non-OECD
OECD
Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario
WEO 2010 WEO 2010 Implications for ChinaImplications for China
China's role in global energy is set to expand further & its policies will have major implications for global energy trends & prospects for limiting climate change
A greater role for gas in China could contribute greatly to reducing CO2 emissions
China's role as leader in manufacturing, deploying—and increasingly in developing—low-carbon technologies can drive down costs, to the benefits of all countries
Growing interconnectedness & China's increasing weight in the energy market links its energy security to global energy security