© OECD/IEA - 2010 Meeting Global Energy Challenges through Technology Leeds University, 21 March 2012 Ambassador Richard Jones Deputy Executive Director,

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Meeting Global Energy Challenges through

Technology Leeds University, 21 March 2012

Ambassador Richard JonesDeputy Executive Director, IEA

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The context

The world needs an energy technology revolution to satisfy its energy needs in ways that are secure, affordable and sustainable.

Unprecedented rates of change in new technology uptake will be needed

There are some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.

Which technologies can play a role?

What are the costs and benefits?

What policies are needed?

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Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2030 2050 2030 2050

Baseline BLUE Map

Gt

CO 2

Other

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Other transformation

Power generation

Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.

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World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region

In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries.

51015202530354045505560

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

Other Non-OECD 19%

Other OME 14%

India 12%

China 27%

Other OECD 10%

OECD Europe 7%

United States 11%BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

ETP2010 analysis WEO 2009 450 ppm case

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Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O 2 CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

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Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario

By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000M

toe 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

-27%

-36%

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Decarbonising the power sector – a new age of electrification?

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

BLUE High Nuclear 2050

BLUE High Ren 2050

PWh

Other

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass and waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas+CCS

Natural gas

Oil

Coal+CCS

Coal

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Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario

Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.

0 10 20 30 40 50

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Geothermal

Wind-offshore

Wind-onshore

Biomass plants

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas-fired with CCS

Coal-fired with CCS

GW/ yr

Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map

30 plants (1 000 MW)

200 plants (50 MW)

12 000 turbines (4 MW)3 600 turbines (4 MW)

45 units (100 MW)

55 CSP plants (250 MW)

325 million m2 solar panels

2/3 of Three Gorges Dam

35 plants (500 MW)

20 plants (500 MW)Historical high

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Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050

Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

Direct reductions Enabled reductions

Greater integration of renewables

Facilitation of electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles

Energy savings from peak load management

Continuous commissioning of service sector loads

Accelerated deployment of energy efficiency programs

Reduced line losses (voltage control)

Direct feedback on energy usage

0.34- 0.69

0.31- 0.62

0.09- 0.27

0.03- 0.25

0.01- 0.05

0.00- 0.01

0.07- 0.27

Gt

CO2

/ yr

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Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by technology

Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario

In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug-in hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mill

ion

sale

s/ y

r

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hydrogen fuel cell

Hydrogen hybrid

Electricity

CNG and LPG

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Hybrid diesel

Hybrid gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

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Additional investment and fuel savings, 2010-2050

Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional investment required.

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Inve

stm

ent

Fuel

savi

ngs

USD

trill

ion

(201

0-205

0)

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industry

Power distribution

Power transmission

Power generation

Biomass and waste

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Und

isco

unte

d

3% d

isco

unt

10%

dis

coun

t

Total

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Key Technology Needs

We will move toward ever more electrification, and greater use of variable renewable power sources

Need much smarter grid management and end use signals

There are really only 3 potential zero carbon energy carriers: electricity, hydrogen, biofuels

Two of these face enormous challenges

Coal‘s use in power generation and industry will remain high for decades – we must make progress on deploying CCS

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ETP 2012 Early release at CEM3

Clean Energy Progress Report 2011

Will be updated and improved in 2012Featured as ETP 2012 early release

February 25-26 2011

© OECD/IEA 2012

Energy technology roadmaps

Technology roadmaps

• 12 Roadmaps and How to Guidepublished

• Roadmaps provide answers:– Where is the technology today?

– What is the deployment pathway needed?

– What are the priority near term actions?

• Next steps – 7 more roadmaps in 2012; implementation: support national roadmap development, track progress

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1. How2Guide (H2G) • Stakeholder engagement• Capture knowledge• Develop the tools

2. Dialogue workshops • Disseminate H2G content• International best practice• Case studies

3. Training • Bi-lateral• Multi-lateral• Train The Trainer (T3)

4. Roadmap development • Indirect support• Direct support

Tech- Platform Activities

© OECD/IEA 2012

Energy Technology RoadmapsRegional & National level

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GLOBAL ENERGY R&D NETWORK

©OECD/IEA 2011

5,000 scientists, experts, researchers, consultants

500 universities, labs, government offices, companies,

consultants

Link public and private

Link IEA members and non-members

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Thank You

www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp