© OECD/IEA, 2009 ESDS International Energy Conference Real Data – Real World London, 30 November 2009 Real Energy World – Real Energy Data Yes, but don’t.

© OECD/IEA, 2009

ESDS International Energy ConferenceESDS International Energy ConferenceReal Data – Real WorldReal Data – Real World

London, 30 November 2009London, 30 November 2009

Real Energy World – Real Energy DataReal Energy World – Real Energy DataYes, but don’t forget…Yes, but don’t forget…

Real Challenges to Energy StatisticiansReal Challenges to Energy Statisticians

Sharon Burghgraeve Jean-Yves Garnier

Energy Statistics Division

International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Real Energy WorldReal Energy World

Energy is “a” (if not “the”) key element of global economy

Energy markets are becoming more and more global

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion represent the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Energy is “a” (if not “the”) key elementEnergy is “a” (if not “the”) key elementof global economyof global economy

Example of oil:

Daily productionDaily production November oil priceNovember oil price Days per yearDays per year

85 Mbl/day

6 800 million US$/day

2 500 billion US$1.4 x GDP of UK1.4 x GDP of UK

80 $/blx

365x

+ 46%

+ 171%

x 2

Underlying factors:1. Overall IEA GDP “only” increased by 140% compared to 270% for non-IEA. As a consequence,

the share of IEA in global GDP dropped from 81% to 74%, and from 63% to 51% in GDP PPP2. Total IEA population increased by 220 million compared to 2 400 million for non-IEA3. Average IEA energy intensity (consumption/GDP) is the lowest of the above countries/regions

Energy consumption Energy consumption

Energy markets are becoming more and more global

59%59% 44%44%

More energy is now consumed outside the IEA than in IEA member countries

© OECD/IEA, 2009

COCO22 emissions from fuel combustion represent emissions from fuel combustion represent

the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)

World Annex I countries

Energy-related CO2 contribution to GHG emissions

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Latin America(22 countries)Latin America(22 countries)

Africa(26 countries)

Africa(26 countries)

Middle East (13 countries)Middle East

(13 countries)

Former Soviet Union (15 countries)

Former Soviet Union (15 countries)

OECD (30 countries)

OECD (30 countries)

Non OECD Europe(11 countries)

Non OECD Europe(11 countries)

Asia(17 countries)

Asia(17 countries)

A coverage of over 130 countries,95 flows and 75 energy products

Real Energy DataReal Energy Data

The contribution of the IEA to provide a global energy data coverage

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Books

CDs

Internet

The contribution of the IEA to provide a The contribution of the IEA to provide a global energy data coverageglobal energy data coverage

© OECD/IEA, 2009

The challenge passed to the international The challenge passed to the international energy statistics community: energy statistics community: A need to further improve quality and coverageA need to further improve quality and coverage

The Energy Statistics Manual (with Eurostat)

The JODI initiative (7 organisations)

InterEnerStat (21 organisations)

The Energy Efficiency Template (EU ODYSSEE, APEC)

A few selected examples of concrete actions taken by the IEA (together with other organisations):

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Facilitating the understanding Facilitating the understanding of energy statisticsof energy statistics

The Energy Statistics Manual The Energy Statistics Manual (with Eurostat)(with Eurostat)

SpanishSpanish

RussianRussian ChineseChinese

FrenchFrench GermanGerman

An Arabic version is under preparationAn Arabic version is under preparation

TurkishTurkish

IndonesianIndonesian

© OECD/IEA, 2009

UN

Secretaria de EnergíaMexico

5% gap5% gap5% gap5% gap

1995 1996 1997 1998APEC 2653 2903 3087 3134IEA 2741 2872 3062 3109OLADE 2722 2969 3022 3070OPEC 2618 2858 3022 3071UN 2834 2977 3166

Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd)

3210

The Joint Oil Date Initiative (JODI)The Joint Oil Date Initiative (JODI)(APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEFS, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD)(APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEFS, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD)

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:

JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

A joint questionnaire as simple as possibleA joint questionnaire as simple as possible

Simple definitions Simple definitions

Month -1 and month -2Month -1 and month -2

Choice of units left to organisations Choice of units left to organisations

A simple format (42 data points) A simple format (42 data points)

© OECD/IEA, 2009

International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group MeetingsInternational Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings

Amst.May 04

MexicoMay 02

ParisDec 03

Nine years of hard work and cooperationNine years of hard work and cooperation

RiyadhNov. 01

MexicoMay 02

Luxem.Jan 02

ViennaApr 02

MadridJuly 00

BangkokApr 01

ParisNov 00

RiyadhNov 00

ViennaMay 01

ViennaOct 01

Amst.May 04

ViennaJan 03

ParisJuly 02

ParisDec 03

ViennaJun 04

ParisNov 05

RiyadhJan 05

ParisJul 05

RiyadhNov 05

CairoOct 03

BaliOct 04

OsakaSep 02

Luxem.Jan 06

ViennaSep 06

N YorkMay 06

RiyadhNov 06

DohaMay 06

ParisNov 07

ParisOct 08

Luxem.June 08

ViennaMar 09

QuitoJune 09

RomeMay 08

Current developmentExtension to natural gas

Extension to additional annual data

Launch of the JODI Database

77thth International JODI Conference, 4-5 June 2009, Quito, Ecuador International JODI Conference, 4-5 June 2009, Quito, Ecuador

Improvement in JODI performance

GlobalParticipation of *98 countries

Number of Smiley Faces ☺2008Jul-Dec

2006Jul-Dec

Improvement (%)2008 Jul-Dec/2006 Jul-Dec

Submission TimelinessCompletenessSource: Joint Oil Data Initiative*No assessment for Tunisia who joined the Initiative from January 2009 data

☺ 82 71 15.5%

☺ 54 48 12.5%

☺ 64 55 16.4%72 countries have reported M-1 data in April

2009 (compared to almost none in 2002)

Major progress in timeliness

M-1 vs. M-2

© OECD/IEA, 2009

An extension of JODI to all fuels and all flows

An extension to data provider and user organisations

Priority given to harmonisation

InterEnerStatInterEnerStat21 international/regional organisations21 international/regional organisations

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Close to an agreement on Close to an agreement on harmonised definitionsharmonised definitions

4th InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, October 20094th InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, October 2009

© OECD/IEA, 2009

FAO

UNEUROSTAT

OPEC

OAPEC

?AFREC

Harmonisation of definitions, a first step Harmonisation of definitions, a first step towards a common questionnairetowards a common questionnaire

© OECD/IEA - 2009

World abatement of energy-related COWorld abatement of energy-related CO22 emissionsemissionsin the 450 Scenarioin the 450 Scenario

Two-thirds of CO2 reduction should come from energy efficiency by 2010; 57% by 2030

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt

450 Scenario

Reference Scenario

OECD+

OME

OC

3.8 Gt

13.8 Gt

CCSNuclear

Renewables

& biofuels

Efficiency

World abatement by technology

20203.8 Gt

65%

19%

13%3%

203013.8 Gt

57%

23%

10%10%

The Energy

Efficiency Template

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Aggregated

Indicators

Disaggregated

Indicators

Process

Efficiency

TPES/GDP

TPES/Production

Electricity Cons./Population

CO2/GDP PPP

Efficiency Elec. Prod.

Cons./ton cement

Heating Cons./sqm/DD

Litre/100km (stock)

Only a minimum Only a minimum set of indicators set of indicators can be derived can be derived

from basic from basic statisticsstatistics

Only a minimum Only a minimum set of indicators set of indicators can be derived can be derived

from basic from basic statisticsstatistics

Dry process

Condensing boiler

Litre/100km (vintage)

The problem is that current data are not detailed The problem is that current data are not detailed enough for sound energy efficiency policyenough for sound energy efficiency policy

The Indicator Pyramid

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Lack of proper indicators could lead to major Lack of proper indicators could lead to major uncertainties for formulating action plansuncertainties for formulating action plans

Industry

Tra

nspo

rt

Residential

Ser

vice

s

And the 1st priority is...

Industry!

And the last priority is...

Residential!

So, the need to act and reactSo, the need to act and react

© OECD/IEA, 2009

In consultation with APEC, the ODYSSEE, the IEA has In consultation with APEC, the ODYSSEE, the IEA has developed a questionnaire on energy efficienciesdeveloped a questionnaire on energy efficiencies

After several years of negotiations, Ministers have agreed to adopt this new questionnaire in October 2009

After several years of negotiations, Ministers have agreed to adopt this new questionnaire in October 2009

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Examples of detailed informationExamples of detailed informationto be collectedto be collected

RESIDENTIAL

%

106

kWh

/un

it

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds

Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation)

More work passed to statistics offices:More companies to survey (liberalisation)

Renewables (remote information)

Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data)

Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….)

etc.

Resources do not follow work load:Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts

What about new challenges faced by What about new challenges faced by energy statisticians at the country levelenergy statisticians at the country level

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Please Help Me…

A need to raise the profile of energy statistics and statisticians

A need to raise the profile of energy statistics and statisticians

More work and fewer resourcesMore work and fewer resources

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Raising the profile of statistics and the role of statisticians

No direct link

between policy

makers and

statisticians

No direct link

between policy

makers and

statisticians

Current

Current

situation

situation

Current

Current

situation

situation

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Decision makersNeed the right data

immediatelyAllocation of resources

Decision makersNeed the right data

immediatelyAllocation of resources

Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy

makers and statisticians Lobby Comments on data

Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy

makers and statisticians Lobby Comments on data

The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in

the whole process Statisticians need to

understand why they collect the data

Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians

The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in

the whole process Statisticians need to

understand why they collect the data

Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians

In fact, the relationship between policy In fact, the relationship between policy makers, analysts and statisticians should be makers, analysts and statisticians should be

more based on a 3-way streetmore based on a 3-way street

© OECD/IEA, 2009

On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can be raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullahbe raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullah

JODI has been a

major contributor

for raising the

profile

© OECD/IEA, 2009

Real Data – Real WorldReal Data – Real World

Energy StatisticsEnergy

Statistics

Forecast the evolution of the energy situation

Review the energy market

Feed the debate on climate change

Assess the past to better understand

the present

© OECD/IEA, 2009

A Few Words to ConcludeA Few Words to Conclude

Thank youThank you

The real world needs more and better data

Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to provide more and better real data

The IEA is very active to improve quality and coverage for OECD countries and worldwide

However policy makers should understand the challenges passed to their statisticians