® National Security Policy Survey of the Literature EMERGING THREATS Robert David Steele OSS CEO [email protected] Updated 19 August 2002.

®

National Security Policy Survey of the LiteratureEMERGING THREATS

Robert David SteeleOSS CEO

[email protected]

Updated 19 August 2002

2

®

Plan of the Brief

• You have 150 books in the lecture handout.

• Will only cover 50 or so of them now.

• Complete text reviews for over 350 books are at OSS.Net, at Amazon, and in the red and green books

• Information• Intelligence• Emerging Threats• Strategy & Structure• Blowback, Dissent &

International Relations• US Politics, Leadership

& the Future of Life

3

®

Relevant Readings onEmerging Threats

4

®

Emerson on American Jihad

5

®

Anon on Terrorism in USA

• Jewish McCarthyism against Palestinians

• Arabic versions of Islamic charity information

• Utility of Arabic historical materials & US public records

• FBI ineptitude

6

®

Peters on Beyond Terror

• US policy corruption on Saudi Arabia

• Military built for Soviets, not terrorists

• US government not sharing information within itself nor with its public and Congress--needlessly uninformed

7

®

Islamic Levinthian

• Case study of Malaysia and Pakistan--differing approached to harnessing Islam

• In the end, both states have to control their fanatics--one did, one did not...

8

®

Latitudes & Longtitudes

• “Only the host society can penetrate itself enough to effectively restrain or delegitimize its own suicide bombers. Outsiders can't.”

• ”…we have been allowing a double game to go on with our Middle East allies for years, and that has to stop."

9

®

Dearth et al on CYBERWAR

• Infosphere as critical area of operations

• Laws in a vacuum• PsyOps, deception,

information operations, information peacekeeping

• Critical infrastructure• Education vital

10

®

Peters on the New Threat

• New warrior class consists of thugs whose best path to wine, women, and cash is via war

• Negotiation with such thugs is futile--sometimes you simply have to go in and kill them

• Timing is everything

11

®

Pelton on Ground Truth

• Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud

• You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security

• We simply are not grasping essential ground truths

12

®

Shawcross on Endless Conflict

• Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations

• Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict

• Good will without strength makes things worse

13

®

Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy

• History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding

• We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict."

14

®

Power on Genocide

• Documents some major modern genocides

• Discusses what was known, what could be known, and what was ignored

• Policy and public are turning their backs

15

®

Heidenrich on Genocide

• 18 genocides going on today--scores more over time

• Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented

• Indifference is murder• Global force needed

16

®

Klare on Resource Wars

• Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war

• Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge

• In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such

17

®

de Villiers on Water

• It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage

• Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment

• $100M will buy one desalination plant or one major warship

18

®

Helvarg on Oceans

• Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected

• Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools

• Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action

19

®

Thornton on Industrialized Poison• Need new paradigm for

controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk

• “Good science” is code for value-free policy that risks citizens’ long-term health for short-term corporate profit

20

®

Garrett on Globalized Disease

• Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations

• Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics

• We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics

21

®

Price-Smith on Health of Nations

• Emerging and re-emerging infectuous diseases (ERIDs)

• Disease + destitution destroys development

• Environmental decline spreads disease

• Health is fundamental to regional security

22

®

Environmental Security

• Presents desperate need for inter-agency coordination and information sharing, the looming catastrophic problems with rain forests, seabed resources, and inland water scarcity, ending with the urgent need for a national security "game plan” that takes long view.

23

®

You Are What You Eat

• Obesity reduces national people power

• Fast food chains are killing family farms and exploiting poorest class of laborers

• What McDonalds does overseas “in our name” is dangerous

24

®

Closing of the American Mind

• “The real community of man…is the community of those who seek the truth…”

• Trained ignorance, bad thought, ideological opinions are shutting out the real world….

25

®

Soros on Capitalism

• Open society is endangered

• Market without regulation & restraint causes mass instability

• Must restore morality and community as part of the economic equation

26

®

Hate & Ignorance

• They hate “hamburger virus” and US foreign policy, not US or Americans per se

• The real lesson here is that Americans have lost touch with reality

• US is a global abuser but public unwitting