1 拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉 拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉拉 Financial liberalization and fi Financial liberalization and fi nancial crises in Latin America: nancial crises in Latin America: A Chinese Perspective A Chinese Perspective 拉拉拉拉拉拉 拉拉拉 拉拉拉拉拉拉 拉拉拉 Jiang Shixue Jiang Shixue Institute of Latin American Studies Institute of Latin American Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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社科院拉美所 江时学 Jiang Shixue Institute of Latin American Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
拉美的金融自由化与金融危机 Financial liberalization and financial crises in Latin America: A Chinese Perspective. 社科院拉美所 江时学 Jiang Shixue Institute of Latin American Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 进口替代时期拉美的金融业 Latin America’s financial sector during the ISI period. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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拉美的金融自由化与金融危机拉美的金融自由化与金融危机
Financial liberalization and financial crises in Financial liberalization and financial crises in Latin America:Latin America:
A Chinese PerspectiveA Chinese Perspective 社科院拉美所 江时学社科院拉美所 江时学
Jiang ShixueJiang ShixueInstitute of Latin American StudiesInstitute of Latin American Studies
Chinese Academy of Social SciencesChinese Academy of Social Sciences
• In the ISI era Latin America only emphasized the development of the so-called real economy like manufacturing, agriculture, trade, technology transfer, etc. Therefore, the position of the financial sector was marginalized.
• In the 1970s the Southern Cone countries carried out neoconservative experiments, and financial liberalization was one part of the reform programs. It included marketization of the interest rate, elimination of the target loans and reduction of the reserves.
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• 70 年代的这一次金融自由化后因爆发了不同程度的银行危机和 80 年代的债务危机而停止。
• This episode of liberalization ended in repeated banking crises and debt crises.
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90 年代的拉美金融自由化Latin American financial liberalization in t
• Compared with the 1970s, financial liberalization in the 1990s acquired new features: (1) Almost all the countries in the region carried out financial liberalization.
• ( 2 ) In addition to loosening control on interest rate setting, eliminating target loan and reducing bank reserves, Latin American countries also privatized state-owned banks, encouraged the participation of the foreign banks and strengthened central bank independence.
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何谓成功的金融自由化?What is a successful program of financial libe
ralization
• 3 个有利于:-有利于保持金融稳定-有利于促进经济增长-有利于低收入家庭更容易地获得资金• According to B. Stallings, a successful program of f
inancial liberalization tends to (1) promote financial stability; (2) speed up economic growth; and 3) facilitate the low-income families to gain easier access to credit.
• Financial repression has been greatly reduced; the position of the financial sector in the economy has been raised; and the capacity of the financial sector to finance investment projects has been strengthened.
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• 金融自由化使拉美国家的银行业吸引了大量外资。 • 私人资本在银行部门中的作用越来越重要。 • 金融部门运转的规则发生了变化。• More foreign capital has been attracted to the financial se
ctor;
• Private capital has been playing a more important role;
• Rules governing the functioning of the financial sector have been changed so that it can now operate in a more liberal environment.
• Paul Krugman said, “ Imagine playing word association - in which one person says a word or phrase, and the other is supposed to reply with the first thing that pops into his mind - with an experienced international banker, finance official, or economist. ~
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• 如果你对一个见多识广的国际银行家、金融官员或经济学家说“金融危机”,他肯定会回答:“拉美”。
• Until very recently, and perhaps even now, if you said 'financial crisis', he would surely reply 'Latin America'."
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• 1994 年墨西哥金融危机;• 1999 年巴西金融危机;• 2001 年阿根廷金融危机。
• Mexico’s crisis in 1994;
• Brazil’s crisis in 1999;
• Argentina’s crisis in 2001.
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三次危机的内部因素 Internal Factors of the three Crises
汇 率 政 策
Exch. Pol
债 务 负 担
Debt
金 融自由化
Fin. Lib.
财 政 赤 字
Fis. Def.
经常项目赤字
Cur.Acc
政 治因 素 Politics
高利率 政策
High Int.
墨西哥
Mxo √
√
√ √
巴西
Brz √ √
√
√ √阿根廷
Arg √ √
√
√
√
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对中国的启示 Implications for China
• “把汇率搞正确”。• 确保债务的“可持续性”。• 提高财政部门的稳健度。• 要重视经常项目赤字。• “Get the exchange rate right.”• To maintain sustainability of the foreign debt.• To enhance fiscal soundness.• To keep the current account deficit at a manageable le
vel.
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• 对于发展中国家来说,金融自由化、资本项目开放是必要的,但必须采取循序渐进的步骤,不能急于求成。
• Financial liberalization and capital account opening are necessary, but they should be carried out in a gradual way.
• China’s reform follows a path of gradualism, not the shock therapy adopted by the former Soviet republics and East Europe. As a matter of fact, however, no reform program is flawless. ~
• We need to recognize the advantage of a gradualist approach. At the same time, we should also understand its cost and disadvantage. When reform comes to a certain stage, one or more obstacles will appear.
• Despite the crises in Latin America, developing countries should still maintain an active attitude towards financial globalization and liberalization. Financial globalization and liberalization is neither a panacea nor a devil.