© H. Maurer 1 Can we avoid catastrophic failures of computer networks? Presentation in the 2005 Digital Libraries Colloquium Series, CMU and University.

© H. Maurer1

Can we avoid catastrophic failures of computer networks?

Presentation in the 2005 Digital LibrariesColloquium Series, CMU and Universityof Pittsburgh March 24, 2005

Hermann MaurerGraz University of TechnologyGraz/ Austria

© H. Maurer2

Production of the room we are currently in, with all that is in it:

example of strong division oflabor and globalization

© H. Maurer3

Computerization is speeding up globalization and introduces a new phenomenon:

division of labor and globalization extends more and more also to non- material products (information, knowledge,…)

© H. Maurer4

Particularly true of WWW and DigitalLibraries!

Note: Digital libraries are much more thanjust repositories that can be searched easily.

They offer new functionality.

© H. Maurer5

Examples:

--- Annotations and ‘Active Documents’--- Portals to WWW with white-lists--- Links into the Future--- Personal views and permissions--- Supports eLearning by providing the material to fill the outline of a course --- Transclusions!--- …

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Thus, today:Access and consumption of all material products any time and place

Soon also true for non-material products such as knowledge. Perfection of advanced techniques for this will still take a little while.

Two attempts the speaker is involved in: Hyperwave www.hyperwave.com Research center KNOW: www.know-center.at

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Advantages of Globalization

Access to many things that otherwise we would not have

More efficient production (climate, raw-material,…),

Certain efforts are only possible through massivecollaboration:

The ‚animal‘ humankind is able to do things small groups of individuals could not do

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Disadvantages of GlobalizationPotential exploitation (without consideration for people, environment,…)

Arbitrary shift of production facilities (unemployment, waste,…)

Increases transport (i.e. dependency on oil which is an indirect danger for peace and environment!)

Globalization creates dangerous dependencies, also

in digital library sector!

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... and then the Internet collapsed one day…

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Could it really happen that computers and computer networks fail in large regions for prolonged

periods???

Yes. The danger is particularly high due to a targeted attack. NOTE: Consequences worse, the later such breakdown happens!

It is a miracle that no serious case of cyber-attack has occurred yet!

© H. Maurer11

The latest book inmy “Xperts-Series”describes exactlysuch a scenario.

www.iicm.edu/Xperts

© H. Maurer12

Der Telekinet(Roman)

Der Paradoppelgänger(Roman)

Die Parakämpfer(Roman)

Das Paranetz(Roman)

Der Anfang(Kurzgeschichten)

Der Mindcaller(Roman, Lennon)

Der Parakommunikator (Roman, Lennon)

Der Paraschirm (Roman, Osborne)

Die XPERTEN- Saga

eSMOG! (Roman, Backhaus)

Mindwave(Roman, Shearer)

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Some figures

Incidents 2003: 137.729http://www.cert.org/stats/

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Further figures

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Who believes in a dramatic collapse withing the next ten years?

“Some 66% agreed with the following prediction: At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked infrastructure or the nationwide power grid” (PEW Report on “The Future of the Internet”, January 9, 2005)

Persons interviewed included e.g. Vincet Cerf, Esther Dyson, Bob Metcalfe, Dan Gillmore, Simon Garfinkel, Howard Rheingold, David Weinberger, usw.

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Consequences of complete breakdown are catastrophic: clear

How can we avoid them?

(1) Increase stability of computers and networks!

(2) Globalization where necessary, but regionalization wherever reasonable

(3) Reduce terrorism. One aspect is to reduce injustice in world as one of the reasons for terrorism. Help third world with IT

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“Balance or Destruction” F.J. Radermacher

www.global-contract.de/ e375/e464/e465/e466/index_eng.html

Basic idea: future increase in productionis possible without further damaging the environment. This growth has to be distributed unevenly.

Reduce injustice and imbalance in the world

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Concrete Measures

e.g.Import duty for countries that do not follow certainrules (no social insurance, no health insurance, no minimum salary, more than 50 h work week, child labor, etc.)

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Help in the third world using IT

Spread new local knowledge world wideExample: How to boil water with limited fuel

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• Boiling water

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Help in the third world with IT

Spread new local knowledge world –wideOther examples are e.g.can-houses, sandbags, chistosoma,…

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Note

Improving prosperity in the world is just oneaspect that will reduce terrorism.

The main reasons for terrorism are desperation, fanaticism and hate… only some of this can be addressed with increased prosperity.

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Globalization where necessary, regionalization where reasonable

e.g.:“Asymmetric distance tax” based on GNP:--- increases stability through self sufficiency--- supports re-distribution--- supports regionalization and natural life--- also holds for non-material aspects

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Computers und networks must become more secure (stable)!

Operating systems and basic software on chips

Write-once storage (may be with mechanical override)

e.g. radical approach:Give up John von Neumann computer concept

Use network only when needed

© H. Maurer25

Other approaches

Thin clients in networks where much is done inservers

Redundant networks and addressing schemes

Variety of operating systems/ configurable OSCroquet project: www.opencroquet.org

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Other approaches

Use of crytopgraphic co-processors

Like in:www.trustedcomputinggroup.org

Can possibly lead to unwanted control www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html

www.iicm.edu/Xperts

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F.J. Radermacher in “Balance or Destruction” talks about the balance

between countries.

We need this, but we also need a healthy balance between globalization and regionalization, and a clean solution for secure computing without the dangers inherent in “Trusted Computing”.

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Thanks for your attention!H.Maurer

URLs:

www.know-center.at www.hyperwave.comwww.iicm.edu/maurer

More on related stuff: www.iicm.edu/ Xperts

email: [email protected]

© H. Maurer29

Reduce injustice and imbalance in the world

Whoever thinks this world is fairWhen millions live in deep despair?They have no water, shelter, foodAnd have no future that looks good.So listen what I have to say:We need a much more balanced way!