Grievances and Opportunities: An Introduction Bottom line: Terrorism is very much a contextual phenomenon We thus have to understand the many different.

Grievances and Opportunities: An Introduction

Bottom line: Terrorism is very much a contextual phenomenon

We thus have to understand the many different kinds of contexts that could motivate and facilitate terrorist activity

Corruption among political and economic elites Oppressive, authoritarian regimes that stifle civil

liberties Marginalization, favoritism/discrimination,

institutionalized exclusion (e.g. Ethno-nationalism, cf. Byman, Lesson 3)

Injustice (real or perceived) Political disagreements (e.g. reconstruction, Roe vs

Wade)

Most often, many of these conditions coincide, creating a cumulative effect of animosity toward those in power

Legitimacy is a key factorTed Robert Gurr (1970): “As legitimacy declines, people rebel”

Corruption among political and economic elites

Weak, failing or failed states (Patrick, Chenoweth, Wahlert) “Ungoverned” or “Contested” or “Zone of competing

governance” “Political instability” especially in transitioning states

(Chenoweth)

Overthrow of government (e.g., military coup) Peace agreement (N. Ireland; Israel/Palestinians) Foreign intervention/occupation

Other political factors?

Plato and Aristotle: “Economic factors are fundamental in the outbreak of violence.”

Marxism: “War is a mechanism for maintaining inequalities in a struggle for control of raw materials and markets.” Violence is an inevitable outcome of capitalism

Poverty (Blomberg, et al) Widespread economic disparities (often tied to

corruption) Lack of government investment in education, public

infrastructure Unequal barriers to social, educational and economic

opportunities Energy poverty High inflation Globalization (Barber, “Tribalism and Globalism”)

• Structural economic challenge: Socio-demographic pressures (youth bulge)

• Age composition of populations in developing countries affects:– Resource consumption– Prices– Government revenues and expenditures– Demand for jobs– Labor wages, etc.

• “Current and projected demographic and socioeconomic conditions in many nations throughout the Middle East, South Central, and Southeast Asia could lead to the emergence of more terrorism and terrorists for many decades to come . . .” National Intelligence Council

Shadow economy (Naghshpour, et al)

Impoverished communities vulnerable to exploitation by criminal networks, militias, etc. – some of whom provide social and economic programs that fill needs unmet by official governmentFor example: Hizballah in Lebanon Hamas in the Palestinian Territories

Underpaid law enforcement, border security, etc. can facilitate corruption, criminal or extremist sympathies Significant concern in several African countries

Corruption as both grievance and facilitator . . .

Beyond the local . . . Diaspora communities, especially in wealthy Western

countries

Globalization (reduction in barriers to global transportation, shipping, asset transfers)

Arms trafficking (ease of access to AK47s)

Trafficking in drugs, humans, diamonds, etc. (revenue streams)

Global energy dependence facilitates funding streams for violent groups e.g. oil bunkering in the Niger Delta . . .

Aspirations/expectations vs. opportunities Regime unable or

unwilling to change/improve

Political, socio-economic conditions offer fertile ground, but do not always lead to emergence of terrorism

Expectations

Opportunities

Contextual relevance is central to terrorist group formation; politics and economics are only part of that context