CHAPTER VI VOTING BEHAVIOUR The electoral study is very pertinent to India which is the largest democracy in the world. India’s Constitution-Makers adopted the system of parliamentary government as best suited to the genius of the people. A parliamentary government is sustained by electorate casting its votes freely at periodic General elections to choose between candidates normally representing rival political parties. The party which wins (or is able to command the support of) a majority of seats in the legislature in a General election forms the government. The Indian constitution specifically lays down that the council of Ministers in the Union shall be the collectively responsible to the House of the people (Lok Sabha) and the council of Ministers in a state shall be collectively responsible to the Legislative Assembly of the state The elections to the Lok Sabha and every state Legislative Assembly are direct and on the basis of adult suffrage : every Indian citizen- male and female who is not less than 18 years of age is entitled to vote at any such elections. The choice of the government thus vests ultimately in the voters, for the government is answerable to the electorate through the Lok Sabha (at the centre) and the state Legislative Assembly (in a state) The constitution lays down that there shall be one general electoral roll for every territorial constituency; the preparation of electoral rolls based on religion, race, caste or sex is forbidden. The electoral rolls for a constituency ( Parliamentary or Assembly)shall contain the names of all the persons eligible to vote at an election in that constituency. The preparation and maintenance of complete and accurate electoral rolls are essential pre- requisites for the holding of elections. The electoral roll is divided into convenient numbered parts, according to areas or localities. The electoral process has certain essential components. These may be candidatures, franchise, method and techniques of election etc. The candidate is a person offering himself or herself, for the suffrage of the elections. He or she is normally a member of one of the political parties contesting an election and is chosen by the party organization. A person may also stand as an Independent with or without the backing of any political party
52
Embed
shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.inshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/67604/13/13...Created Date 3/7/2015 1:46:30 AM
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
CHAPTER VI
VOTING BEHAVIOUR
The electoral study is very pertinent to India which is the largest democracy in the
world. India’s Constitution-Makers adopted the system o f parliamentary government as best
suited to the genius of the people. A parliamentary government is sustained by electorate
casting its votes freely at periodic General elections to choose between candidates normally
representing rival political parties. The party which wins (or is able to command the support
of) a majority of seats in the legislature in a General election forms the government.
The Indian constitution specifically lays down that the council of Ministers in the
Union shall be the collectively responsible to the House o f the people (Lok Sabha) and
the council o f Ministers in a state shall be collectively responsible to the Legislative
Assembly o f the state The elections to the Lok Sabha and every state Legislative
Assembly are direct and on the basis o f adult suffrage : every Indian citizen- male and
female who is not less than 18 years of age is entitled to vote at any such elections.
The choice of the government thus vests ultimately in the voters, for the government is
answerable to the electorate through the Lok Sabha (at the centre) and the state Legislative
Assembly (in a state)
The constitution lays down that there shall be one general electoral roll for every
territorial constituency; the preparation of electoral rolls based on religion, race, caste or sex
is forbidden. The electoral rolls for a constituency ( Parliamentary or Assembly)shall contain
the names of all the persons eligible to vote at an election in that constituency. The
preparation and maintenance of complete and accurate electoral rolls are essential pre
requisites for the holding of elections. The electoral roll is divided into convenient
numbered parts, according to areas or localities.
The electoral process has certain essential components. These may be candidatures,
franchise, method and techniques of election etc. The candidate is a person offering
himself or herself, for the suffrage o f the elections. He or she is normally a member of one
of the political parties contesting an election and is chosen by the party organization. A person
may also stand as an Independent with or without the backing of any political party
115
Franchise is the important step in any system of election. Ever since elections have
been known there has been an experiment of franchise. Franchise may defined simply as
the ‘right’ or “eligibility” to vote. The natural rights theory regards all men and women
equal and free hence all should be entitled to the right of franchise equally.
For the purpose of holding elections, the country or the state is usually divided
into a number of electoral districts which may or may not correspond with the
administrative divisions. These electoral districts are known as “constituencies”
Election plays a key role at the scale of ideology in channeling conflicts safely
into constitutional arenas Hence one needs to consider electoral geography but not
necessarily in its usual form Electoral geography has come to include' geographical
analysis of referendum, votes in international, national, and regional bodies. Electoral
geography is the study of the spatial voting patterns or voting behaviour or the study of
the spatial distribution of political phenomenon of voting in different elections. Vote cast
are measures of attitude, perceptions and biases o f electorates. When vote return are
mapped, the resulting distributions give indications o f place to place or region to region or
constituency to constituency difference in voting behaviour. The goal o f most studies seems
to be nothing more than understanding the particular situation under consideration. If a
state is considered a study area, the constituencies (constituency may be Parliamentary,
Legislative State Assembly, Panchayat etc.); within the state are spatially distributed ‘unit
areas’. Each constituency has unique spatial location.
The correlation technique is used to compare one set of measure with another In
voting behaviour research, the concern it with “why the voters for a candidate are
distributed over a space and time in the manner shown in a map. The map being explain
the spatial distribution of votes The voter’s turn out are the “dependent variable” for (he
correlation model. That is why, they vary one piace to another or one time to another,
dependent on socio-economic variables like age, sex, religion, caste, ethnicity, literacy, place
of birth, marital status, nature o f family and income, ideas and aspiration o f the voters and
the political considerations he makes final expression in his decision to cast vote for a
particular candidate. The analysis begins with the selection of a second measure like age,
sex, religion, literacy, caste etc. that may explain the spatial distribution of voters’ turn
out The second measure is called ‘independent variable’.
I'lie area! variation in social and economic class, religion, nationality and race were
among the prime factors which have important bearing o f voting pattern..Using such
methods easy to explain the foundation of voting patterns, for whole states or
constituencies and able to predict how pattern would change franchise altered or as
migration occurred
The study of voting behaviour is highly promising in three ways. First, the act of
voting itself is considered as an overt form o f political participation and objective
manifestation o f the political make-up o f the voters. Each voter projects his ideology,
political orientation, judgement and attitude and expectations is an effort to identify the
most viable o f the alternatives. Second, the account of election results objectively shows
the numerical strength of the various political forces struggling for power and dominance
in the constituency/state/country. Third, and final, the voting preference can be used as a
check against the 'hiding o f truth’ tendency among the respondents their ideologies and
political attitudes.
Influencing Factors Behind the Trends and Patterns in State Assembly Elections
An analysis o f the voting pattern in the Assam State Legislative Assembly elections
revealed that several factors have directly influenced the voting behaviour o f the electorates
since the first Assembly election in 1952.
Geographical Influence o f Voting
There are four basic processes that may lead to local influence on voting decision •
I “Candidate voting or friends - and - neighbours effect”, which have commonly been
found to occur in the Legislative Assembly elections in Assam. Friends - and -
neighbour effect makes a particular contextual effect in electoral geography,
whereby voters favour local candidates. Some models o f the effect associate it with
the spatial diffusion o f information about candidates away from their home area, so
that election result displays a density gradient o f support around a candidate
homes, i e. support decreases progressively with distance from their homes
2. Since 1952 Legislative Assembly elections, issues are multiple and have a wide
coverage in their aspects Before focusing the issues highlighted by the different
political parties, it is imperative to understand the political arrangement of different
117
political groups who contested the election. “Issue voting” occurs where a particular
topic in an election is of more importance to some areas than others
3 “Campaign effects” reflects the differential influence o f the campaign. A great
variety o f issues, national and local got prominence in the campaign meetings In
different Legislative Assembly elections in Assam , the election meeting influenced
the electorates voting behaviour in some constituencies.
4. “The neighbourhood effect” is the most studied geographical influence in voting
The neighbourhood effect is form a local social influence. In the caste
consciousness Assamese society, the neighbourhood effects plays the most decisive
role in the voting decision o f the people. The neighbourhood effect postulates the
following process : For any individual in an election campaign there are two
sources o f information. The general information from the ‘mass media’ available to
eveiybody and the particular information derived from ‘local contacts’ General
information will go through partisan filter in the voting decision making processes
The result will be that “all” classes living in working class areas (Urban area or
Industrial areas) will be more likely to vote for the “natural party” o f the area
and “all” classes living in middle class areas will be more likely vote for the
“natural” party o f that area.
Apart from the above four basic processes there is one more process predominant in
Assam This process may be called “process o f relocation effect”, which also leads to
geographical influence of voting decisions, ft is the migration of the people which creates
the relocation effect and which does have certain decisive effects on the voting decisions
Voting habits in most o f the constituencies in char areas and immigrants areas o f Lower
and Central Assam have been largely motivated by the relocation effect, largely as a
result o f the relocation o f Bangladeshi immigrants in these constituencies
Influence of Some Demographic Variables on Voting
(i) Regional Disparities in VotingRegional disparities in the direction of voting behaviour was found in most of the
electoral studies conducted India and abroad. Each state / region / constituency had its own
118
peculiarity with regard to its socio-economic and political complexion which on their own
have tremendous impact on the political attitude and political behaviour of the individual
For example in 1985 Legislative Assembly election in Assam, the newly formed regional
parties the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was acquired a considerably large share o f votes
from the Brahmaputra valley while the Indian National Congress (INC) acquired a
considerably large share of votes from the Barak plain. Although AGP monopolized over
the voters o f Assamese speaking community in the Brahmaputra valley in 1985 Assembly
election, but Indian National Congress received proportionately a majority o f votes from all
the regions.
(ii) Rural /Urban Distribution o f Voting Pattern
Another of regional stability is the pattern of established by the conflict between
Urban and Rural interests. People of urban areas have different voting habits from those
in rural areas for many reasons. The source of income is the most important rural-urban
differences even more important than amount o f income and that intrinsically reflects in
voting behaviour. Other rural-urban differences includes most of the variables commonly
associated with voting “age5' - average ages in urban areas are lower than the rural areas,
females in urban areas participate in election whereas the rural women dissociate
themselves from voting. Level of average number o f school years completed are generally
higher in urban areas than in rural areas, average incomes are higher in urban areas rather
than m the rural areas. These differences cause differences in attitudes that are manifested
in voting behaviour.
(Hi) Socio-Economic Status and Voting Pattern
A good number o f studies have suggested that “class” is a major determinant of
voting behaviour if no other cleavage happens to be salient. Establishment o f casteless
society is an established and pronounced goal o f every major political party. But the same
time, caste and caste system is very much well rooted in socio-economic and political
structure o f our society. Today a series of problem with which people are faced is as to
what is the relationship o f caste and politics in Assam. Is the hold o f caste on politics to
weakening ? It is the caste exerting its heavy pressure on politics o f Assam ? When caste
became active and influencing factor in political life and voting behaviour then these lose
their character Similarly when caste take part in the labour movement or in trade
119
unionism, they then still retain their character as caste. These are some of the serious
problems which face people today in so fur caste and politics are concerned.
The predominant feature o f the social structure in Assam is the caste system. The
caste system is its most general but a fundamental aspect is an descriptive system of status
and hierarchy. It is purposive and ail embracing and is known for controlling defining all
social, economic and political relationships for the individual.
Tire other socio-economic variables like age, sex, religion, language, literacy, place of
birth, marital status and income also closely connected with the voting pattern.
Geography of Voter Participation in Assam
Political participation is the process through which the individual plays certain
political roles in a society. A political role is the pattern o f behaviour which
characteristics one’s political activities It embodies different forms, levels and degree of
intensity. A significant proportion o f electorates who were politically “very active” came
from Upper middle class. Making a dichotomy between political active and inactive was
found that about 74 per cent o f electorates o f upper class and upper middle class are
active. Conversely more than 80 per cent of politically inactive electorates were identified
from middle and lower class categories About 57 per cent o f males and urban
population were active in politics and against 10 per cent o f the female and about 20 per
cent o f rural population. No election is meaningful unless the people participate in it There
is considerable spatial variation in the voter participation in the state. It may be very high
in some constituencies and very low in some other constituencies Even within a constituency
itself significant spatial variations in the turn out can be seen. It is particularly true in the
Parliamentary constituency wherein different Assembly segments usually witness marked
spatial variations in voter participation
There are many factors which account for the differences in voting participation
from place to place. Even there is differences in the male-female participation. Surveys and
election data have shown that men arc more likely to vote than women This is true not
only in the state of Assam but also in the other states in India. In Muslim dominated
constituencies o f Assam voter participation is more than Hindu dominated constituencies.
Political aspect is the main reason behind the high percentage o f voters’ turn out in Muslim
120
dominated constituencies. It has been observed that constituency with homogenous
population (homogeneity o f religion, race, ethnicity, language, social custom and tradition
etc.) register relatively higher voter participation than those which have heterogeneous
population. Lack of literacy among the voters o f Assam in some constituencies also stands
in the way o f the participation o f election. In some constituencies, the voters’ turn out is
extremely low because of the lack of political maturity and political consciousness among
the electorates that they fail to realized the political significance o f the right Sometimes
ignorance on the part o f the electors leads to considerable variation in the turn out As
for example, ignorancy is the prime factors behind the low turn out in tribal dominated
constituencies o f Assam. Distance to polling station/polling booths is another factor,
causing to the voters’ turn out difference. In every elections the districts o f Karbi-Anglong
and North Cachar Hills district voters’ turn out is very low comparison to all Assam voters’
turn out due to long distance to polling stations There are many more factors for
differences in voter participation in Assam. Thus, there is Geography o f voter
participation.
Socio-political situation of a region also responsible for the variation o f voters’
turn out. As for example the State Legislative Assembly and the Parliamentary elections of
Assam 1983, was extra-ordinary for its timing, for its conduct and less participation o f voter
in the election process. A kind o f fear psychosis was generated in the minds of people of
Assam , so that they felt safe by keeping away from elections. In 16 Assembly
constituencies poll had been adjourned. The percentage o f voters’ tum out was only 32.74
percent. In 29 Assembly constituencies the percentage o f vote poll was been one per
cent to 10 percent. In many polling stations of the Brahmaputra valley, not a single ballot
paper was inserted in the ballot boxes and empty ballot boxes were submitted by the
polling officials to election officers. Needless to say that the 1983 elections was in practice
a non-election and therefore no case for the study o f voting behaviour. In Assam
percentage of voter participation highly increases from 1985 Legislative Assembly
elections. In India, if the tum out approaches or exceeds 90 per cent it then assumed that
malpractices, such as rigging and booth capturing have occurred. In Assam, such situation
occurred in some constituencies after 1985 elections.
In Assam, voter participation comparatively is more than the all India averages of
voter participation since the 1952 Legislative Assembly elections in spite o f widespread
12!
illiteracy and ignorance Both “constant” or “long term” influences and “situational”
influences have been affecting in voters’ participations in Assam since 1952 General
election. The factor which motivates an individual to cast his or her vote is “constant or
long-term” motivation. On the other hand “situational” motivation occurs during only one
particular election. In the constant motivations includes the voter general interest in political
matters, consciousness, sense of duty or commitment to particular political party which is
contesting the election, and loyalty to particular political ideology which the party is
carrying forward. It is Marxist philosophy which has been, for long, motivating the
Religious minority voter to vote the Congress in different elections o f Assam Until 1978
Legislative Assembly elections constant or long-term influence predominant among the
minds of the people of Assam. Up to 1972 Legislative Assembly elections in Assam most
of electorates caste their votes in favour o f the Indian National Congress party. It was a
“long term” or “constant influence”.
Another motivational factor for the individual that may occur once situation is
dependent on the circumstances o f a particular election. Possibly there is one issue or one
candidate that the person feels strongly about - so strongly that he will make an extreme
effort to vote for or against the issue or candidate. During the 1977 parliamentary election
in India the long-term or the constant influence to a particular political party (i.e. Indian
National Congress) was changed in the minds o f the people of India after nearly 19
months of “Emergency” (declared on June 26, 1975) This was a “situational influence” It
may be the only time some people ever vote, or it may be occur numerous times.
Possibly the individual voter knows the political party or the candidates personally, but
whatever circumstances, there are elections that are special interest to some individuals
This kind o f situational influence was clearly conspicuous among the voters’ mind in the
1978, 1983, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Legislative Assembly elections in Assam.
In the 1978 Assembly election, there was the “emergency issue” that motivated the
electorates of Assam to vote against the Indian National Congress Party, in the 1983
Assembly election it was the “foreign national” issue that motivated the electorates to
boycott the all election process or in the 1985 Assembly election it was the “Assam
Accord” and “All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) wave”, that motivated the electorates of
Assam (specially in the Brahmaputra valley) to vote the “Asom Gana Parishad” (AGP) and
the “United Minority Front” (UMF). At the 1985 Assembly election, two new
122regional parties called Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the “United Minority Front”
(UMF) were formed, the former representing the majority Assamese Community generally
and the latter Muslim and other minorities. The AGP was the product o f the Assam
Movements and the political Child o f All Assam Student’s Union and AH Assam Gana
Sangram Parishad. The UMF on the other hand was formed with the intension of
countering the programme and politics o f AGP concerning “Assam Accord”. People in,
mostly those belongings to the Assamese speaking Hindus, voted in enbloc to the AGP in
1985 Assembly election because o f safeguard o f their language, culture and identity from
foreign infiltration
The situational motivations that affect groups of people could include the campaign
excitement promoted by particular candidate and the particular political party. Debates
between rival political parties on the electronic media before the elections usually
generated much interest in that election, leading to unusually high voter participation. The
election campaign effect and the debates of rival political parties also associated with the
high voter participation in Assam. Also, particular issues, especially those related to social
tension, economic problem, insurgency problem, disturbed law and other situation,
corruption, unemployment etc., affect people directly, and can generated unusual interest,
resulting in the high voter participation turnout in 1985, 1991, 1996, and 2001 Assembly
elections in Assam (Fig. 6.1). Lowering o f voter age from 21 years to 18 years has
already affected the turn out in all over India. The number o f voters has increased which
have also led to an increase in turnout. (Table6.1).
T ab le-6 .1
Trend of Electorates in Assam (1952-2001)Year Total electorates/voters
Source .Compiled from State Election Reports (2001)
Regional Realignments o f Political Parties and Political Decision o f Voter
Regional stability or regional instability may occur in voting patterns. As for
example voters in West Bengal have voted the Left Front with overwhelming majority in
the six successive Assembly elections, which were held in 1977, 1982, 1987, 1996 and
2001 Voting patterns established in 1977 in the West Bengal have persisted to this day.
Similarly, in Assam, the Assamese voters had always expressed their loyalties to the
Congress party up to 1972 Legislative Assembly elections and also there was an
125
extraordinary stability in the regional voting patterns in the state up to 1972 Assembly
elections If we see the district wise stability of voting patterns in Assam, the voters of
the Dibrugarli district have always expressed their loyalties to the Congress party since First
Legislative Assembly election in Assam
Another form of regional stability is the pattern established by the conflict between
urban and rural interest. People o f urban areas have different voting behaviour from those
in rural areas for many reasons. Most urban dwellers have income from salaries, whereas
village dwellers cam income from what they produce. The source of income is the most
important rural-urban differences and this difference reflects in the voting behaviour. Other
rural-urban differences in voting behaviour include population composition like age, sex,
level of education etc The regional stability depends on (a) the homogeneity o f the area
(b) inherited vote (c) the committed voters (d) the common interests of the people o f the
area (e) loyalty to one political philosophy. But in Assam due to some socio-economic,
demographic and political reasons change its political make-up and largely impact on
regional stability Regional stability in voting behaviour is mostly in a bi-party system,
whereas in a multi-party system like India, it is not a common phenomenon.
Regions tend to remain politically stable, but they can change one partisan loyalty
to another Usually, the change is gradual, but it can occur from one election to another
election. Once an elected representative takes office, however, his constituency is more or
less “stuck” with him until the next election. Regional realignment means the change in the
voting habits or voting behaviour o f a region or a state. It occurs mostly as a result of
(a) migration into an area (migration may be Intra-national or International), (b) conflict in
political philosophies from which particular candidates or political parties benefit, (c)
localism, (d) communal and caste cleavages , (e) linguistic cleavages and (f) groups of
people not confined to a particular regional changing loyalties from one political party to
another political party. All o f these are potential factors for changing regional realignment in
Assam. Of course, there are other reasons for regions to experience political changes ,such as
changes in political perceptions, increase in their political maturity and consciousness, the
neighbourhood effect and changes in economics etc also responsible for the change of
voting habits in Assam since 1985 Assembly elections. Realignment is the most common
electoral phenomenon in Assam A curious features of Indian politics as it is developing
126
since (he 1967 General election, is possibility of changing policies by the political parties
in power or out of power after elections without reference to voters. This type of changing
politics was also introduced since 1978 Legislative Assembly election in Assam
The first national / regional level realignment in the voting habits in Assam occurred
in 1977 parliamentary election, when people voted the non-congress parties to power. The
traditional Congress votes went to the non-Congress parties effecting a major change in the
regional voting behaviour Since then change became a more common phenomenon in the
election scenario in India. It was in 1978 that the first realignment occurred at the state
level when the people o f Assam voted the Janata party to power. Nevertheless, the change
was more common in the Brahmaputra valley rather than in the other regions o f the state
Realignment also occurred in Assam in 1985, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Assembly elections,
Assam witnessed four realignments during 1985-2001, the first occurred in 1985, when the
people voted the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the second realignments occurred in the
year 1991 Assembly election when the voters favoured the Indian National Congress (I),
in the year 1996 Assembly election a new coalition called the AGP - Communist coalition
was voted to power and again in the year 2001 Assembly election, people of Assam
voted in favour o f Indian National Congress (1). In 2001 Assembly election, people of
Assam rejected the AGP-BJP alignments. One o f the major realignments in the Assam
electoral politics, in the 2001 Assembly election, has been that o f the Assamese speaking
Hindus having switched over their loyalty to the Indian National Congress (I). Large scale
Bangladeshi immigration to Lower Assam had its impact on the voting behaviour in the
region. They expressed their loyalty to the political party which did not oppose to their
immigration (Fig. 6.2 & 6 3).
Individual migrants tend to change their attitudes to conform to their new areas but
when large number o f peoples with similar political perceptions move into an area they
can “overwhelm” the local political attitudes. Thus regional alignment can be caused by
migration, but peculiar circumstances are necessaiy, such as the isolation of new arrivals
through discrimination or the movement o f large number of people into previously
uninhabited areas
The first and foremost issue raised by Asom Gana Parishad what that o f a foreign
nationals who should be detected and deported as per the terms of the “Assam Accord”
127
Fig.
6 2
25 k
ins
25
DEG
RE
E O
F C
ON
CE
NTR
ATI
ON
L Q
VALU
E
13 N
AGAO
N
UG
OLA
GH
AT
15 J
OR
HAT
16 S
IBSA
GAR
H17
DIB
RU
GAR
H18
TIN
SUK
IA19
KAR
BI
ANG
LON
G20
NO
RTH
CAC
HAR
H
ILLS
21 K
ARIM
GAN
J22
HA
ILAK
AND
I23
CA
CHA
R
1 DH
UBRI
2 KO
KRAJ
HAR
3 BO
NG
AIG
AON
A
GO
LAG
HAT
5 B
AR
PET
A6
NA
LBA
RI
7 KA
MR
UP
tDA
RR
AN
G
9 SO
NIT
PUR
10 L
AKHI
MPU
R11
DH
EMAJ
I12
MAR
IGAO
N
BANG
LADE
SH26
°
DIS
TRIC
TS
3,0 to96
90*>
O'E
^
92
01
ASS
AM
94
°
SPAT
IAL
CONC
ENTR
ATIO
N OF
IN
DIAN
NA
TIONA
L CO
NGRE
SS (
I) VO
TERS
, 20
01(B
Y
LOC
ATI
ON
Q
UO
TIE
NT)
28°
7n
128
E
9
6<d
H9I
H
AH3A
H9I
H
wniaaw
MOT
MOT
A83A
3A08V
•
SZl.
SZ
l
—
00
L
001
—
SA
0
SA
0
—
0S0
OS
0
M0T38
5UJT
SZ
0
SZ
NOIIVaiN30NOO
dO
338930
30TVA O
1
9
N
V
a
dVHOVO
CZ
IONVXVTIVH
ZZ
rNvowiavx
u
STTIH
aVHOVD
H180N
OZ
9N0T9NV
I8NVX61
VIXflSNIl 81
Havonaaia
u
dVOVSBIS
91
lVHaor si
1VH9VT09
7 l
NOVOVN
ElSlOi
aiSJQ
o7Z|
Novoiavw
zi
irVW3H0 u
andwi
HxvT oi
anaii
Nos
ONvaava
dnawvx a
lavai
VN
V13daV8
AVH9VT09 7
10 V9 I
VON 08
avHrvaxox z laanHO
HS3QV19NV8
o9Z
TV9N38
1S3M
V
1
fl
H
3,0 ,.
96
[
INSUOnO N0I1V00T
A8 )
1,002
‘SdBi
OA
Al
HVd
Vl
VNVf
VAli
VaVHS
-OVHSmVd
VNV9
HOSV
JO
NOI1VH1N33NOO
IVIlVdS
wvssv
ja
,.76
,0 I.Z6
.
3
A r06
the Indian National Congress (I) keep silence about the issues raised In the \<il‘
Hence, the minority groups (specially Muslims and Hindu Bengalis) expiessed then
loyalties to the Indian National Congress in Assam after 1985 Assembly election^
The immigrants are in absolute majority in eight o f the 15 Assembly constituencies
in the district o f Dluibri, Bongaigaon and Goalpara. In five more constituencies (lies are
numerous enough to be crucial for an electoral victory. There is similar transformation m
the Barpeta, Darrang, Kariinganj, llailakandi and Nagaon districts o f Assam People rame
to feel that certain national political parties having vested interests in the foieigneis vokw
their “ vote banks' - were responsible for stalling the process o f detection o f foreigners l>\
raising the bogey o f “harassment o f Indian citizens".
Geography of Representation
Ihe geography o f representation has been a particularly fruitful area ol eiagine m
countries that use a plurality system of voting such as USA and Britain in tins
system a candidate is elected to a Legislature on the basis o f obtaining most voles m an
electoral district
Geography of representation has been concerned with the 'districting problems
This states that different patterns o f electoral district boundaries will produce ditleieni
election results in terms o f Legislative seats “ even if the underlying pattern of voting
remains the same" Since there are many different ways o f dividing up an area into a
given number o f electoral districts, it follows that there are many different results eveni it
it hold the actual voting constant. This has led to two types o f electoial abuse
reapportionment and gerrymandering. In the former case districts o f different population are
designed to favour one political party over another. However, it is gerrymandering which
has been the main concern o f recent research since it has been shown that election iesu11v
can be easily manipulated without any need to resort to malappointment Gerrymandering
involves drawing the boundaries o f electoral districts in such a way that favours one pam
or candidate over another. The spatial manipulation o f votes through constiiuencv
delimitation is known as “electoral abused" which is based on the underlying concepi nt
“electoral bias". Electoral bias is measured as the difference between the peicentaee "i
seats o f a party wins and the percentage o f votes polled in their favour
130
In the case of reapportionment, the districts of different population are designed to
favour one party over another. The most common form that this takes is to favour
nirai areas and hence political parties with rural support, which have been found in some
districts o f Assam. A stacked gerrymander for instance, is one in which an opposing
party’s votes are largely concentrated in just one or two districts which they win with a
large majority, but which leaves them with few votes and therefore seats elsewhere. The
general idea is to make votes as affective as possible in winning seats while wasting the
other party’s votes either in surpluses in large majorities or else in losing district. There
are many examples of this abuse in the Assam Legislative Assembly elections since 1978.
Interpreting the State Elections and Determinants of Voting Behaviour
After every election to parliament or State Legislature, these goes on an exercise
within the political parties and their leaders and by the press and the public to interpret
the outcome of the results. Like the poll surveys and the forecasts, the interpretations also
widely vary underlying the exercise is the belief that there is some reason, some logic or
at least some thinking behind the voting pattern. Election surveys and analysis have
brought in usage certain terms - some applicable and some inappropriate.
In the present study before the examining the socio-economic status factors like
Age and voting preference, Religion and voting preference, Caste and voting preference,
Language and voting preference, Rural-urban disparity and voting preference, Sex and
voting preference. Territorial mobility and voting preference, Income and voting preference,
Occupational status and voting preference, etc. researcher also examined how political
factors like candidate orientation, issue orientation and party identification of the voters
had influenced their voting preferences in Assembly elections, 2001' in Assam.
Candidate Orientation
In Assam where the Indian National Congress had been the dominant party until
1977, the party rather than the candidate was perhaps the most vital factor influencing the
voter’s choice in the earlier Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections in Assam. This trend
reappeared in 1983, 1991 and 2001 Assembly elections when INC (I) party swept these
elections Under such a situation, candidate orientation o f the voters as a political factor
has the least influence in the voter’s choice
In 2001 when the Assembly election in Assam was scheduled, the political
atmosphere in the state had many important trends like anti-AGP wave, the spate of
secret killing, insurgency problem done by ultra outfits etc. Under such an atmosphere of
uncertainty as to which party would form the Government, the voter was supposed to have
a wide range of choice o f candidates and hence candidate orientation might have
influenced the choice o f voting to certain degree.
In order to ascertain the extend o f candidate orientation that might have taken
some form in the 2001 Assembly election, researcher put a number o f questions to the
respondents viz., (i) “Do you know the names o f the candidates who contested the 2001
Assembly election in your constituency”?, (ii) “How many candidates had during the
campaign personally approached you”? (iii) “Did agents of any candidates solicit your vote
for their candidates”? and (iv) “Did you exercise franchise because your vote was sought
for personally by the candidates or by their agents”? There had two fold intention in
putting these questions to the respondents.
(1) For finding out the extend of candidate orientation o f the voters and for finding
out their personal knowledge of the candidates contesting the election.
(2) To ascertain if a vigorous door to door campaign was launched by the
candidates which might have given a candidate orientation to the voters.
The responses to the first question as to “whether the voters knew the names of
the candidates” are displayed in table 6.3.
Table 6.3
131
Awareness of the Voter Regarding the Name’s of the Candidates
Responses (in PC.)
High Caste Hindu voters (in P.C.)
Muslim voters (in P C.)
Tribal voters (in P.C.)
Tea Mazdoor voters (in P C.)
Very high(l 00-
76)
5.2 18.6 1.5
High (7 5 -5 1 ) 13.6 14.2 3.8 1 5
Medium (50 - 25) 40.7 45 3 25.6 137
Low (Below 25) 31.3 19.6 50.1 20 8
No response 9.2 2.3 190 64.0
Source • Calculated on (he Basis oj Survey Data, 2001
The degree of awareness o f the names o f the candidates has been indicated in the
form of “very high” (i.e. respondents who would name 76-100 per cent of contesting
candidates in 2001 Assembly election), “high” ( 5 1 - 7 5 percent), “medium” (25-50 per
cent), “low” (below 25 per cent) and No response. It appears from the above table that a
significant percentage o f respondents of Muslim voters (18.6 per cent) were highly aware of
the names of the candidates followed by high caste Hindu voter (5.2 percent) While
such awareness was not observed in the tea Mazdoor voters. The majority of tribal voters
were aware o f the names of a few candidates. The majority o f the upper caste Hindu
voters and the Muslim voters had also known the names o f some o f the candidates. But a
very high percentage of voters in the tea community (64.0 per cent) was totally ignorant
about the candidates. An overall trend, however, was that the majority o f respondents have
low to medium awareness
The second question as to “whether the respondents were approached by the
candidates personally during the election campaign” is displayed in table 6.4 \
132
Table 6.4
The Views of the Respondents Regarding the Mode of Approach of Candidates
Response In high caste dominated areas
InMuslim dominated areas'
Tribal areas Tea Garden areas
(in P.C.) (in P.C.) (in P.C.) (in P.C.)Yes 70 30 20 11
No 30 70 80 89
Source: Calculated from Primary Data Collected from the Sample Comtituencies, 2001
The table 6.4 indicates that the vast majority o f the respondents (70 per cent)
particularly in high caste dominated areas were approached by the candidates personally
and the vast majority of the respondents, particularly in the tea garden areas (89 per cent)
were not approached by the candidates personally. Even in Muslim community and Tribal
dominated areas, where the voters could be personally approached easily, (lie vast
majority o f them were not at all approached by the candidates This implies that the
candidates remained personally remote to the voters.
The third question as “did agents of any candidates solicit your vote for their
candidate” are displayed in table 6.5.
Table 6.5
The Views of the Respondents Regarding Solicitude of Candidates
133
Responses In upper caste Hindu Dominated areas
(in P.C.)
In Muslim dominated areas
(in P.C.)
Tribal areas
(in PC.)
Tea Garden areas
(in P C )
Yes 97 85 68 20
No 2 10 20 60
Noresponse
1 5 12 20
Source: Calculated on the Basis of Primary Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies,200/
it is evident that from the above table (Table 6.5) that the campaign through agents
was very vigorous in the upper caste Hindu voter dominated areas where 97 per cent of
the respondents were approached by agents o f different candidates. Similarly the percentage
of respondents so significant in Muslim and Tribal areas but such percentage in the tea
garden areas was negligible only 20 percent In the tea garden areas 60 per cent of the
respondents were not approached by agent of different candidates or different political
parties
The last question had put in this regard was “Did you exercise franchise because
your vote was sought for personally by the candidate or by their agents” are displayed in
table 6.6.
Table 6.6
The View of the Respondents on Franchise
Response In Upper caste Hindu dominated areas
(in P.C.)
In Muslim dominated areas (in P.C.)
Tribal areas (in P.C.)
Tea garden areas
(in P .C )Yes 21 5 15 70No 60 10 35 15No
response19 85 50 15
Source • Prepared on the Basis of the Analysts of Primary Data Collected through Village Survey, 2001
134While the upper caste Hindu voter and the Tribal voter (60 per cent and 35 per
cent respectively) gave an emphatic reply in the negative, the vast majority of the Muslim
respondents (85 per cent) refused to reply. The tea garden respondents had been guided
by the local leaders of their community.
The general trend was that irrespective o f the degree of awareness of the names of
the candidates, respondents in Hindu, Muslim, Tribal and Tea community voted for the
Indian National Congress. However, a sipificant percentage o f the respondents voted for
the ABSU’s candidates in the Tribal dominated areas of Bhabanipur Assembly
constituency. In the Muslim dominated Jonia Assembly constituency, the vast majority of
respondents, irrespective o f the degree o f awareness of the names o f the candidates voted
for the Indian National Congress candidate. It therefore, appears that there was a little
correlation between the voter’s awareness o f the name o f the candidates and their voting
preference.
Issue Orientation and Voting Behaviour
Since 1952 Legislative Assembly election in Assam issues are multiple and have a
wide coverage in their aspects. In the following text, an attempt has been made to analyse
the issues taking 2001 Legislative Assembly election as an empirical base. Before focusing
the issues highlighted by the different political parties it is imperative to understand the
political arrangement of different political parties who contested the election.
As stated already, during the election campaign certain important issues such as
problem of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, IM (DT) Act, the chronic financial crisis of
the state, secret killings, insurgency problems, corruption etc. raised by the political parties.
Such issues were brought to the notice by the electorates through the press and other mass
media. Along with these special issues, solution o f unemployment problem, formation o f a
Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC), solution o f Bodo problem, industrialization, were give
adequate publicity.
In order to ascertain the extent o f issue orientation that might have taken some form
in the 2001 Assembly election, put a number o f questions to the respondents Four
questions were put to the respondents with a view to examining their reactions on these
vital issues With the help of respondents’ reaction also examine if these issues had
influenced the voting preference of the respondents Table 6,7 displays their response to
the first question
135
Table 6.7
The Views of the Respondents on the AGP-led Government
Do you think that failure of the AGP - led Government o f fulfill the aspirations of the people was the most important factor influencing the people’s mandate?
Response Hindu Voters (in P .C )
Muslim Voters (in P.C.)
Tribal Voters (in P.C )
Tea Community Voters (in P .C )
Yes 71.3 68.6 85.6 65.7No 15.7 10.2 7.5 8.1
Non-response 13.0 21.2 6.9 26.2
Source: Based on primary Data calculated by Scholar
The bulk of Tribal voter (85.6 per cent) thought that failure o f the AGP-led
Government to fulfill the aspiration of Bodo people was the most important factor
influencing the change of people’s mandate in Bodo dominated areas o f Assam. 71.3 per
cent of the Hindu voters also did not support the manner in which the AGP-led
Government administered the state of Assam. A considerable percentage o f the Muslim and
Tea community voter believed that failure of the AGP-led Government was the main cause
behind the change of people’s mandate.
The second question related to the “Secret killing” during the AGP-led government
Table 6.8 displays their response to the second question.
Table 6.8
The Views of the Respondents on “Secret Killing”
Do you support the manner in which the “secret killing” programme was implemented by the AGP-led Government during when AGP in power ?
Response Hindu Voters Muslim Voters Tribal Voters Tea Community(in P.C.) _(in P.C.) (in P.C.) Voters (in P.C.)
Yes 6.2 87 8.5 95No 80.6 60.3 71.7 61.5
Non-response 13.2 31.0 19 8 29.0
Source. Calculated by Researcher from Survey Data, 2001
The table 6.8 indicates that the vast majority o f respondents, particularly in the
Hindu and the Tribal voters did not support the “secret killing” programme implemented
during AGP-led government rule. Even in the Muslim and Tea Mazdoor voters also
opposed such activities. The credit accruing the AGP-led government for increasing success
in tackling insurgency and in unmasking the IS l conspiracy and gun running was large
offset by the spate o f “secret killings”. Here also intended to ascertain the views of
respondents on certain vital economic issues raised by most o f the political parties in
their manifestoes The first suggestion was “without industrialization economic progress of
the state is not possible.
Their responses were recorded in the form o f “strongly agree” , “agree”, “disagree”,
“strongly disagree” and “do not know”. Table 6.9 shows the views o f the respondents on
industrialization.
Table 6.9
The Views of the Respondents on industrialization
136
Response Hindu Voters (in P.C.)
Muslim Voters (in P.C.)
Tribal Voters (in P.C.)
Tea Community Voters (in P.C.)
Strongly agree 15 20 16 13
Agree 70 50 55 52
Non-response 3 - - 6
Strongly disagree 1 - “ 3
Do nor know 11 30 29 26
Source • Calculated on the Basts of Primary Data Collected from Sample Constituencies during 2001 Assembly Election.
If take up the percentage o f respondents who “strongly agreed” and just “agree”
together, it seems that majority o f the respondents supported industrialization. An
overwhelming majority of the Hindu voters (85 per cent), the Muslim voters (80 per cent),
the Tribal voters (71 percent) and the Tea community voters (65 percent) fully agreed
with the suggestion put forwarded by different political parties
The last question related to the emotive issue “the illegal immigration from
Bangladesh to the entire North-East India and the controversial illegal migrants
(Determination by Tribunals) IM (DT) Act. (Table 6.10). The Assam agitation lasting for more
than six years making dozens of promising young men martyrs and mining the careers of
thousands of young men - produced the Assam Accord containing dangerous provision for
enactment of a piece of legislation (later on known as the IM (DT) Act. 1983, and that
the agitation leaders were too quick to sign the Assam Accord. The issue of repeal of the
most infamous Illegal Migration (Determination by Tribunal) Act. 1983 is currently
occupying the central position in the minds of the conscious citizens throughout the
country and specially in the state of Assam before the 2001 Assembly election.
137
Tabic 6.10
The Views of the Respondents on IlVf(DT) Act, 1983
Do you think the repeal of the most infamous Illegal Migration (Determination by Tribunal) Act is necessary for detection and deportation of foreigners ?
Response Hindu Voters Muslim Voters Tribal Voters Tea Community(in P.C.) (in P.C.) (in P.C.) Voters (in P.C.)
Yes 71 1 75 55
No 25 99 5 10
Do not know 4 - 20 35
Source. Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election in Assam.
The above table (Table 6.10) reveals certain interesting facts. The bulk of the Hindu
voters respondents (71 percent) wanted to the repeal o f most infamous IM (DT) Act for
detection and deportation o f foreigners. Of course, majority o f the respondents in the
Muslim voters (99 per cent) did not support the repeal of IM (DT) Act. The vast
majority of respondents in the Tribal Community (75 per cent) also supported the repeal of
IM (DT) Act., 1983
The correspondence between the voters’ perception of the issues relating to failure
of AGP-Ied Government, secret killing, economic issues, repeal o f the Illegal Migration
(Determination by Tribunal) Act, 1983 and their voting preference shown in table 6.11.
138
Table 6.11
Overall Views of the Respondents Based on Different Issues
Voter Segment Voting Preference (in percentage)INC (I) AGP BJP Independents and Others
Hindu 40 20 12 28Muslim 70 5 1 24Tribal 10 13 7 70Tea Community 62 23 5 10
Source : Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election in Assam.
The table 6.11 projects a pro-Congress trend in voting preference of the respondents of Hindu, Muslim and Tea community. On the other hand majority of the Tribal voters decided to vote for the independent candidates.
Party Identification
In order to examine the extent of party identification on the part of sample respondents had put the following questions •
1 To which party you feel closer?2. Are you a member of any political party ?3. Did you care a good deal about which party wins the elections?4. Whom did you vote-the candidates, the party or the election symbol ?
Table 6.12
The Views of the Respondents which Political Party felt closer
To which party you feel closer?
Voter segment Response : closer to (in percentage)INC (I) AGP BJP Communist Not at all Non response