© Copyright: Ben Livson 1 999. All rights reserved. Hybrid Messaging Workshop Business Modelling for Integrated Messaging and Postal Services By Ben Livson
Mar 31, 2015
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Hybrid Messaging Workshop
Business Modelling for Integrated Messaging and Postal Services
By Ben Livson
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Session 1 - Introductions
• Executive summary - overview
• The current situation– Messaging
– Electronic addressing: the concept
– The international experience
– The market
• The economics of messaging
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Session 2
• Executive Summary - Overview
• Business Concept and Customer Value Proposition
• Reaction by National Postal Services?
• SWOT Analysis of National Postal Services
• The Business – History and Present
• Technology Outline – how does it work?
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Session 3
• How does it work? – (a) Intelligent Addressing
– (b) Distributed Nodes
– (c) Description of Authentication
– (d) Billing and Customer Care
– (e) SMTP Handler Billing Functions
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Session 3 continued
• Market Analysis– Customer segments
– Product service bundles, pricing and revenue, and costs
– Critical Success Factors
– Risks and Responses
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Electronic Addressing Concepts
• Phase 1 - Mail House Emulation– Postal Address File = customer mailing list– Manipulate and validate against PS.PAF– Content file(s)– Optional form files (for statement printing)– IDP since 1988. IDP Data Stream --> into an
international Hybrid Mail Language standard– Proprietary solutions: ELetter is web-enabled.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Session 4
• Management and Organisation
• Financial Plan - Pricing, Revenue and Cost
• Industry Literature
• Profile on Business Partners & Competitors – When and how to involve Global Business
Partners?
– What does it take to make it?
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Session 4 profiles continued
– United Parcel Service - UPS
– Federal Express Corp
– DHL Worldwide Express
– Microsoft - Royal Mail Relay One
– Netscape - Sweden Post - Sun @post
– AT&T Mail
– International Data Post Hybrid Mail ePOST
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Session 4 profiles – IDP PC ePOST - current and future
– US E-Stamp and Stamp Marker Internet Postage Metering
– Tumbleweed Posta Service Providers: UPS Online ® Dossier and UPS OnLine ® Courier and Pitney Bowes iSend.
– E.C.S by USPS, Canada Post & La Poste
– ELetter
• Where to from here?
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Hybrid Mail OverviewExecutive Summary
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
What is Hybrid Mail?• Seamless integration of all e-mail with
postal services
• The last frontier to be conquered for unified messaging of e-mail, fax, SMS, EDI, voice with postal services
• Premium value added messaging
• Email and fax without technology!
• Extension: outsourced print on-demand
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
PublicInternet
Postal ServicesFinal Distribution
WebService
Activator
WebService
ActivatorWebTracker
WebTracker
Web-enabledCustomer
Care
Web-enabledCustomer
Care
Surface MailSurface Mail
Royal MailUSPS, IDP..
GatewayGatewayVoice MailVoice Mail
HelpHelp DeskRobot
Intelligent Addressingand Distributed Nodes
Managed InterfacesManaged Interfaces
GHM Intranet
Global Hybrid Mail GHM
EmailEmail
Fax, EDI, Pager & SMSFax, EDI, Pager & SMS
G
HDirectoryServices
DirectoryServices
M
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Intelligent Addressing
• [service-flags]#address@domain• Address types include email, postal, phone voice
mail, fax, EDI, SMS-pager etc. Examples:• Ben.Livson.36.Minnamurra_Road.[NSW.]
2063[.Australia]@domain for postage• [61.2]99580489@domain for voice mail• [61.2]99583915@domain for facsimile
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Hybrid Mail Consumer Benefits• Full automation of the postal process from
printing, addressing, folding, inserting into envelop, franking-metering & delivery
• Annual saving of 100+ hours per person• No technology required for consumer to receive
and send email and fax!• Wrongly addressed mail minimised• Speed of delivery maximised• Quality printed paid letter vis junk email
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Premium Value Added Services• Express delivery
• Certified, non-repudiable & track-able items
• Colour on demand print eg. colour glossies
• Overhead transparencies, greeting cards …
• Media delivery of floppy disk & CD ROM
• Paperless out-sourced mail room (out & inbound)
• E-mail address and fax number service for people without access to any technology!
• Advertising
• Document audit services ...ecommerce
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Service Provider Benefits• Premium value added messaging in contrast to
free junk email• Physicals of real infrastructure vis Internet
intangibles - real barriers of entry!• Postal services market > $200b• Value added potential > $300b• Print on demand market > $500b• Huge opportunity: the last major market to be
deregulated, re: Telco industry success
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Hybrid Mail Cost Structure
• Large mailhouse cost base
• Minimise CAPEX: Fuji-Xerox finance guarantees price per printed page, folded, inserted, enveloped ...
• Advertising and Brand Marketing
• Distribution via IDP a possibility
• Network: America --> India & China!
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Competition -> Alliances
• Postal services, eg. Sweden Post
• International Data Post
• Relay One: Microsoft & Royal Mail
• E-Stamp, Stamp Marker, Pitney-Bowes in franking & metering
• UPS, FedExpress, DHL … couriers
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Competitors’ Strengths
• Established, trusted and very large
• Already carry out whole-sale hybrid mail eg. invoice and statement printing and mailing
• Still protected by regulation
• Control the last leg of mail drop
• Old boys network averse to start-ups
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Servicefeature
Service
Provider:
Deliveryby openInternet
Directoryservice -look upaddress
@postaddres
sing
Universal in-box
Pricing Servicebacked
byestablished bypostalservice
Integrationwith E-
Commerce(eg.
bundledoffering)
RelayOne Y N N(check)
Y (N)(check)
Premium Y N
ELetter Y N N N Penetration
N N
Sweden Post Y Y Y Y(N) ? Y Y (Torget)
Postal Serviceand Telco-ISPin partnership
Y/N Y
(WhitePages
+e-mail)
Y(achiev
able)
Y/N Penetration
Y Ecommerce+ Certificate
Authority
IDP ePOST N N N N Penetration
Y N
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
The current situation
• Messaging vis Postal Services Statistics– 2-billion emails/day vis 1.5 billion letters/day
– 2001: emails = 8 x letters according to Forrester
• Email addresses: 120m --> 1b in 2002-2003
• Postal addresses: 2.5b (140m in the USA)
• Sources vary: CNET, Intelliquest & IDC
• Gartner: email = 25% customer contacts
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Reactions by Postal Services
• Sweden Post annual report 1998 reports 4% pa gains in letter service turning into -4% pa
• Australia Post annual report 1998 analyzes letters 4.4b pa as 20% of all messaging 22b pa including telephony and facsimile.
• USPS 5-year Strategic Plan for 1998-2002 largely ignores messaging.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
THE POSTAL WORLD IS GOING THROUGH A CHANGE
Why?Because commerce on Internet is all about
- Messaging
- Payment
- Logistics
Core Postal Business
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T O R G E T B U S I N E S S S T R A T E G Y
PositioningSweden Post as the leadingelectronic commercesupplier
T
LOGIS
IC
S
STNEMYAP
TO
RGET S MARKET
PLAC
EMeeting place for:
- Communications
- Buying & selling
- Information
’
ME
SS
AGES
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
The wheels are spinning faster
• It took 38 years before 50 millions Americans were listening to radio;
• Television reached 50 million in 14 years;
• Internet reached 50 million in 4 years.
• This is a wake up call for Postal Services
• Projects: Defence=5-10 years, MIS=1 year and E-Services=1-3 months.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Electronic Addressing Concepts
• Phase 1 - Mail House Emulation– Mailing list of customer address file verified
against Postal Address File– Content file(s)– Optional forms– IDP Data Stream DS since 1988– IDP DS --> Hybrid Mail Language Standard– Proprietary: ELetter is all web-enabled
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Phase 2 of Electronic Addressing
• Desktop integration via Print Driver DLLs
• IDD PC ePOST since 1997
• Royal Mail - Microsoft RelayOne
• First generation consumer solution
• No integration of email with postal service
• Deutche Post annual report 1988 lists 83 million ePOST items vis 30b+ letters
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Phase 3 @post
• True email to postal services integration
• SMTP electronic addressing of the form postal-address@postal-services-domain
• For example:
Ben.Livson.36.Minnamurra.Road.Northbridge.NSW.2063.Australia@post.au
• Sweden Post initiative with Sun & Netscape
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Evolution of Phase 3
• Early phase 3: @post and .us initiatives:
• Early idea: provide every postal address an email address leads to problems:– A postal address may correspond to several
email addresses (can be resolved)– You cannot give addresses without permission
• Phase 3+: Directory centric subscriber driven with no need for email accounts!
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International Experience
• IDP = 18 countries with a potential to reach 75% of global postal service volume.
• Currently IDP volume is 3b pa <1% global postal volume of 500b letters pa.
• Current focus in automating parts of postal services such as metering & franking eg. e-stamp.
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Potential Market
• 500b letters pa - 43% in USA
• Postal Services revenue $150b pa
• 90% already contestable as market deregulated
• Total postal market including letter print production and preparation > $500b pa
• Market > $1t pa with print on-demand
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Postal Services Globally
• 700K post offices, 6.1m staff & reach=70%
• Developed countries: 400 letters per capita
• Developing countries: 7-33 letters per capita
• China 7 letters per capita & 2400 regional sorting centres --> 255 centres
• Japan and Germany have both 82 centres
• International mail: 2.5% & parcels: 1%
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
The Economics of Messaging
• Major messaging market segments include:– Free web-mail for portals– Outsourcing– Universal messaging– E-service for Sales Support and Customer Care– Secure certified commercial grade messaging– Each segment has massive competition with a
very large number of entrants
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Entrants - “Free” Web-MailHotmail USA.Net WhoWhere
Rocket Mail Four11/Yahoo MailExcite
HotOffice AltaVista Junior Mail
Juno 3Dmail AOL
Fabrik MailMail MSN
Iname Many others!
Why so many?: Float, enhance portal, advertising, sell a web-mail solution, induce into valued added messaging eg. universal messaging.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Defining Universal Messaging
• Single Logical Message Store• Supports Voice, Fax, E-mail, Video, Pages,
Calendar Events, . . .• Fully Accessible From Phone, PC, and Other
Capable Devices• Interoperability Between All Media Types• Call Control
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Five Architectural Views• Voicemail Centric Messaging• E-Mail Centric Messaging• Client Integration Messaging• Server Integration Messaging• Intranet Messaging
• Acknowledgement: http://www.ameagle.com
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
E-Mail Centric MessagingMessages
To/From OtherSystems
PBX
VoicemailServer
E-MailServer
MessageStore
PC ClientTelephone
Client
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Universal Messaging Entrants
• Universal Email Inbox to/from fax, phone, pager-mobile, EDI, voicemail etc. can be grouped into service and solution providers including:
• http://www.software.com
• http://www.orchestrate.com
• http://www.unified-msg.com
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Universal Messaging Entrants ../2
• http://www.unified-messaging.com/message.htm
• http://www.telebot.com/ "free" unified messaging
• http://www.octel.com - part of the Lucent Technologies
• http://www.amteva.com
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Universal Messaging Entrants ../3
• http://www.phonesoft.com
• http://www.jfax.com
• http://www.unitel-inc.com
• http://www.irdg.com/ipostoem.htm iPOST
• http://www.plpt.com Pulse point Communications
• http://www.redrock.com.au
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Universal Messaging Entrants ../4
• http://www.freeoffice.com/tbd/ ESA from StarTouch International http://www.unifiedmessaging.com/
• http://www.comversens.com/
• http://www.mailmail.com/ Web Office, messaging, fax platform for ISPs
• http://www.commtouch.com
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E-Service: Customer Care
• http://www.aditi.com
• http://www.ask.com
• http://www.brightware.com
• http://www.delanotech.com
• http://www.primus.com
• http://www.motive.com
• http://www.servicesoft.com
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E-Service: Sales Support
• http://www.adante.com/
• http://www.aptex.com/
• http://www.egain.com/
• http://www.mustang.com/
• http://www.kanana.com/
• Many others
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Messaging Market Trends
• Market has to rationalize - too many entrants in all categories.
• Many competitive advantages unsustainable– secure messaging S/MIME and S/SMTP– universal inbox– virus protection– anti-spamming– Delivery and read receipts
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Group 5 Messaging
• Proof of Message Delivery
• Archiving
• Legally Admissible Messaging
• Multiple Transports: Fallback to email&fax
• Message Integrity and Security
• Universal Inbox
• http://www.group5forum.org
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Literature
• http://www.bal.com.au/hybrid.htm• Internet Mail Consortium
http://www.imc.org
• Electronic Messaging Association http://www.ema.org
• Ferris Research www.ferris.com
• Radicati Group http://www.radicati.com/
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Business Concept• Universal Inbox for Messaging supporting:
Postal letter service E-mail Voicemail Fax, pager, EDI and SMS
Redirection, A-Send and B-Receive Preferences and Directory Services
Outsourced Mailroom & Print On-Demand Virtual Email and Fax addresses
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Value Proposition
• Scope is any computer file or anything that can be scanned into a computer file
• Full automation and outsourcing of all postal operations
• Automation and outsourcing of mailroom
• Outsourcing of print-on-demand
• Speed, quality and professionalism
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Value Proposition ../2
• SOHO savings: 60 hrs pa x $26/hr = $1,560
• Assumptions: 720 letters pa * 5 min/letter
• Accuracy: postal addressing validated
• Improved cash flow with invoice cycle reduced by a calendar day
• Value added services such as tracking of delivery, insurance, notary and multi-media.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Table 1: Subscriber activation – and hybrid mail servicesParty charged Type of fee or charge
A-party(sender)
B-party(receiver)
Pertransaction
Activation Periodic Excess
Subscriberactivation
(?)
Directory entry oradditions
Hybrid Mail:
Postal class
Colour printing
Stationery orbrochure
Greeting card
CD-ROM; mediaconversion
Transparencies
Documentmanagement
Notary services
Certified Mail
Outboundmailroom
Inboundmailroom
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Table 2: E-mail and telephony-based messaging servicesParty charged Type of fee or charge
A-party(sender)
B-party(receiver)
Pertransaction
Activation Periodic Excess
Email Services:
Preferences:add, move,delete
Autoforward
Web mail
IVR mail
POP mailbox
IMAP mailbox
IMAP storage
Alias & lifetimeE-Mail address
Autoreply andacknowledge
List services
Certified signedmail
certificate
Gateways:
Fax
EDI
SMS (ShortMessageService)
Voice Mail
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
SWOT Analysis of National Postal Services STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES Nationally trusted authority: supports confidence that the
messages will be delivered reliably Postal Service brand synonymous with mail delivery:
supports message delivery in the digital world Retail network: service activation (for those not choosing
web activation and for 100pnt check to obtain certificate);credit card details
Financial strength: ability to partner with large organisationsrequired to assemble this service
Business focused: profitable products
Not a messaging or messaging technology orientatedorganisation (more focused on physical mail logistics)
Little or no experience in subscription-based services (keyprocesses are service activation, assurance and billing)
Decision making processes may not support a rapiddecision, supported by requisite capital backing
Current processes and structure do not support good co-ordination of e-commerce across the organisation
Possesses an address-based database, not one oncustomers (transaction history or preferences)
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS Appears PS only viable opportunity to get into the
messaging market is via hybrid mail. The other strategicpossibilities (PS becoming an ISP or telco) are majordepartures from its business – and in any event theseindustries are themselves maturing and current players arelooking for value-added services across industry boundaries.
Increased profitability or utilisation of existing PS servicessuch as EDIPOST (using joint service provider for print-ondemand and mailing services).
Move now: technologies for large-scale integratedmessaging are mature, thereby technology-risks arediminishing.
Synergies with other PS E-commerce initiatives viaBundling: Certificate Authority, hybrid messaging, e-commerce, advertising revenues from web-based mail.Indeed enablers such as Certificate Authority may not bevalued unless bundled strategically with a core service likeHybrid Mail. Also, longer–term potential for revenues fromweb-based advertising, as e-mail becomes more browserintegrated, and therefore advertising possibilities.
Also PS will have a subscription base (c/f. Current propertyaddress base) with customer profiles, to which PS canmarket 1:1 existing products, such as PS shop products toSOHO market, and future products.
Combined full-service messaging with telcos (and perhapsISPs)
Fragmented or cautious implementation: not rolled outnationally or in a unified form
Too slow to react: current opportunity for a first mover islikely to be short-lived; another player moves first (eg. a localtelco or an international service such as RelayOne). PSreduced to gaining revenue only from the physical maildelivery of hybrid mail (ie. others take major portion of thevalue chain)
E-mail will rapidly increase with projected Australian userslikely to exceed 7 million by 2005 (1 million current) –substitution
PS’s current lack of long-horizon products to supplementerosion of markets in traditional mail services fromcompetition; with deregulation of PS’s traditional mailservices, PS has only a 2-year buffer to introduce newlonger-horizon products
Web feeds Rise of other communication options: multi-point
communications (eg. video conferencing) Web TV (or network computer may make messaging service
easier to use) Band-width expansion is delayed Consumer’s uptake of hybrid mail is slower than expected
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
History and Present
• Earliest postal delivery: Egypt 255 BC
• Universal Postal Union Berne Treaty 1878
• 189 countries, 6.2m employees, 700,000 post offices and 500b letters.
• International Data Post: 18 major countries:– Finland Post and IBM Finland 1988– Australia EDIPOST 1992 --> modern open IDP
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
History and Present ../2
• Post 2005 Study by the Universal Postal Union: http://ibis.ib.upu.org/AN/Poste2005.html
• IDP PC ePOST 1997
• RelayOne 1998
• ELetter 1999
• @post 1999
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Market Analysis• SOHOs and SMEs are the most attractive
segments.• LME. Large-to-Medium sized Enterprise
Already have existing mail rooms and infrastructures built but willing to outsource postal services, mail rooms & printing.
• Residential.Take years to educate - very high price sensitivity.
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Segment Substitution Primary driver Increased usage Primary driver
Business toHome Correspondence
Promotion
Invoicing: LMEs,SMEs
70%
High
Efficiency 15%-20%
Low-medium
1:1marketing;Targeted
promotionand ads
Ease ofcommunication
Household toBusiness
10%
Very low
Primarily returnmail by businessrequesting aresponse orsignature; mostbusinesses havee-mail
Ease of use 0%
Nil
NA
Household tohousehold
10% to 25%+?
Initially lowgrowing to medium
Ease of use 10% - 25%+?
Low to medium
(eg. connectedusers sendinghybrid mail tounconnectedparents/friends)
NOTE: Influenceof multi-pointcommunications(eg. videophone?)
Ease of use
Business tobusiness
3%?
Very low
Mostbusiness/government agencies havee-mail
Very low to Low
© Copyright: Ben Livson 1999. All rights reserved.
Postal Service Internet Initiatives
• Service Fulfilment - trucks & scheduling
• Tracking of logistics - parcel service
• On-line Post Shop
• E-Payments eg. Australia B-Pay
• E-Market eg. Sweden Post Torget
• National Certificate Authority - Retail
• E.C.S eg. USPS, Canada Post and La Poste