意大利和中国光伏市场建立 “ 中意合资企业 ” 评估 ASSESMENT OF ITALIAN AND CHINESE PV MARKET AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE INTEREST TO ESTABLISH A

意大利和中国光伏市场建立“ 中意合资企业”评估

ASSESMENT OF ITALIAN AND CHINESE PV MARKET AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE EVALUATION OF

THE INTEREST TO ESTABLISH A SINO ITALIAN ENTERPRENEURIAL INITIATIVE

Eng. Giornelli LuciaEnergy & Civil Infrastrcture Marketing Analyst

The Research activities have been performed in cooperation with DeMEPA senior Experts

TPC - Renewable Energy Department

Taipei , 31° of May, 2012

Agenda1

• Introduction

2• Lecture 1: Renewable Energy Outlook

3• Lecture 2: PV application, Technology and Market

4• Lecture 3: PV supply chain, financing and investment return analysis

5• Lecture 4: Establishment of a PV Sino – European Joint Venture

6• Conclusion

7• Annexes

Agenda1

• Introduction





6• Conclusion

7• Annexes

IntroductionQuestions:

• Is the development of a Sino- European Joint Venture in the Renewable Energy profitable?• If yes in which sector?• Chinese and European markets anti-symmetric?

It happens through:

• International Outlook of Renewable Energy Business• Choice of more profitable sector: PV • Analysis of PV International markets (China, United States, Germany and Italy), technologies, applications

and supply chain • Choice of the most profitable countries: China and Italy • Analysis and comparison of Chinese and Italian markets• Characteristics of potential partners In China and Italy• Analysis of potential businesses models • Proposal evaluation• Guidelines about business development

This analysis is based on information dated July 2011.

Agenda1

• Introduction





6• Conclusion

7• Annexes

Lecture 1:

Renewable energies outlook



Eng. Giornelli Ferruccio Energy Policy Senior Advisor


Renewable Energy OutlookOverview of Renewable Energy (RE) • market• technologies • legislation• actual situation and expected development.

Main Focus on • Wind• Solar

RE Worldwide Investments/Financing Analysis

Clean energy invest overview:• Worldwide, the sector increasing 30% above 2009 levels to achieve a record of 243

billion $ worth of investment in 2010• Worldwide investments, excluding R&D, 630% bigger than 7 years ago • Shift in global competition: investments from established markets in the developed

countries to dynamic emerging markets in the developing world.• G-20members:

more than 90% of worldwide investments 2010 growth of 33% above 2009

全球和 G-20国家清洁能源投资， 2004-2010（十亿美元）Global and G-20 Clean Energy Investment,

2004-2010 (Billions of US$)

RE Worldwide Investments/Financing Analysis国家和部门投资， 2010（十亿美元）

Investment by Country and Sector, 2010 (Billions of US$)

2010 年清洁能源投资前列（十亿美元）Top in Clean Energy Investment, 2010 (Billions of US$)

2010 Rank Country

2010 Investments (billions $)

2009 Investments (billions $)

Investment Increase %

2009 Rank

1 China 54,4 39,1 39% 1

2 Germany 41,2 20,6 100% 3

3 US 34,0 22,5 51% 2

4 Italy 13,9 6,2 124% 8

5 Rest of EU-27 13,4 13,3 1% 4

6 Brazil 7,6 7,7 -1% 7

7 Canada 5,6 3,5 60% 9

8 Spain 4,9 10,5 -53% 6

9 France 4,0 3,2 25% 12

10 India 4,0 3,2 25% 11

• China and Italy in the top four in the clean energy investment

• Chinese and Italian investment represent one third of global (≈210 billions of $)

• China invests less than three time Italy (55bln$ vs 15 bln$)

• China invests 11% in the solar applications, Italy 50%

in absolute values the two countries have same

investments in solar app (China 6bln$ Italy 7bln$)

• In Asiatic countries, public covers about the 90% of investments

• In Italy, financing mix is equilibrated

1/3 Public 1/3 Private for small

application 1/3 Venture Capital

/Private Equity

RE Worldwide Investments/Financing Analysis

PV Investments:

• Germany 81%

• Italy 54%

• US 25%

• China 6%

WIND investments

• China 72%

• US 43%

• Italy 39%

highest 5-years growth rate countries:• China +88%• Italy +71%

中国，德国，美国和意大利部门投资分布， 2005/2010 Distribution of Investment by Sector China,

Germany, United States and Italy), 2005/2010

RE Worldwide Investments/Financing Analysis重点投资激励（中国，德国，美国和意大利）

Key investment Incentives (China, Germany, United States and Italy)

在中国的，美国，德国，美国，意大利已安装的清洁能源 -2010

Installed clean energy in China, Germany, Us, Italy -2010

China Germany

Wind: Fixed feed-in Tariff Wind, Solar, Biomass: Feed-in Tariff

Renewable energies: Renewable Energy standards and guaranteed purchase by utilities

Solar: Rooftop and building integrated photovoltaic subsidies

US Italy

Wind, Solar: production Tax Credit / Investment Tax Credit Solar, Biomass, Hydro: feed-in Tariff

Cleantech: Federal loan guarantees

Large scale renewable Energy: Green certificate

Wind, Solar, Power storage: Federal Manufacturers Tax Credit Small Wind and Solar projects: 10% reduction o value

added Tax

China Germany US ItalyTotal Renewable Energy Capacity

103 GW 49 GW 58 GW 16,7 GW

Percentage of G-20 Total

27% 13% 15% 4%

5-Years Growth rate 106% 67% 30% 45%

Key renewable energy Sectors

Wind 43 GW Wind 27 GW Wind 40 GW Wind 6 GW

Small-Hydro 56 GW Solar 17 GW Solar 3 GW Solar 6 GW

Solar PV 0,8 GW Biomass 2 GW Small-Hydro

3 GW

Clean energy targets: China, Germany, Us, Italy中国，德国，美国，意大利清洁能源主要目标

Key clean energy targets in China, Germany, US, Italy

China (2020) Germany (2030)

Wind 150 GW RE HeatProcure 14% of heating resources from Renewable Energies

Biomass 30 GW Renewable Energy 18% of total consumption

Solar 20 GW

US (2022) Italy (2020)

Biofuels36 billion gallons

Renewable Energy 17% of final consumption

TransportationRenewable Energy 10% of final transportation energy consumption

• Wind at 1st place in the 4 countries

• Solar at 2nd place in Germany, Us ,Italy.

China is expected to install 20 GW of solar power plant within 2020, thus becoming the first solar energy generating country.

Why PV sector? The solar sector is only at the fourth place among installed renewable

energies …

but it grew faster as far as investments are concerned, increasing by 59% over 2009 levels!

Total 2010 investments in solar accounts for 40% of total green energy investments world wide!

Agenda1

• Introduction





6• Conclusion

7• Annexes

Lecture 2:

PV Application, Technology and Market





Why PV sector? The solar sector is only at the fourth place among installed renewable

energies …

but it grew faster as far as investments are concerned, increasing by 59% over 2009 levels!

Total 2010 investments in solar accounts for 40% of total green energy investments world wide!

Yearly global irradiance and shares of global cumulative installed PV capacity

年度全球辐射和全球累计安装的光伏发电容量份额.

While the EU has dominated the world PV market for years and will continue on this path, the rest of the world has clearly the biggest potential for growth; PV

represents a convenient, environmentally friendly and sustainable solution to the energy needs of the “Sunbelt’’ countries around the Equator. In these countries, PV

can already compete with diesel generators for peak power generation without policy support.

2010 Worldwide cumulative installed capacity share

Worldwide PV cumulative (%)

2% 3%

34%

11% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 16%

3% 11%

9%

Belgium

France

Germany

Italy

Spain Rest of the

EU Australia

Canada

China

Japan South

Korea USA

Rest of the world

2010 年全球累计装机容量份额• Fastest PV growth expected

in China and India South-East Asia Latin America and

MENA

• PV potential of the Sunbelt ≈ 60 -250 GW by 2020 ≈ 260 -1,100 GW in

203representing 27% to 58% of forecast global PV installations.

• Excluding EU, the rest of the world accounts for a 3 GW

• Japan and USA will reach 1 GW

• Australia and Canada are expanding fast.

CHINA seems to be the most interested in PV : • important industrial projects (solar cells and modules) in the pipeline• application projects

2010 European cumulative installed capacity share

• European main players: Germany, Italy , Spain, Belgium and France

• United Kingdom: significant investments expected in next 5 years

• In 2010, PV lead RE technology in capacity growth in Europe:

PV installation 13.3 GW in 2010,

Wind 9.3 GW Gas power plants

20GW - 28 GW according to sources

2010 年欧洲累计装机容量份额

• even if PV reached high levels of installations, the way to a carbon-free power generation mix is still far.

• Other renewables are also progressing, but not reaching the success of PV and wind.

2010 Power generation installed in EU 27

2010 年欧盟 27 国已安装的发电站

PV installed is an order of magnitude greater than decommissioned and also that a possible future decommissioning of a part of Nuclear plants (the old ones) may

be substitute by PV plants (and even RE in general)

在欧洲的发电装机量

2000- 2020. EU cumulative installed capacity

2000 至 2020 年欧盟累计装机容量 - 不同的场景

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Years

MW

Policy driven trend Moderate trend NREAP 2020 trend

2000-2020 cumulative installed capacity: Italy – China – Germany - US

2006 - 2015. Italian cumulative capacity installed - Different scenarios

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Years

MW

Policy driven trend Moderate trend Italian target

2006 - 2015. Us cumulative installed capacity - Various scenarios

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Years

MW

Policy driven trend Moderate trend Us target

2010 - Situation for PV components production

CHINA• 1st producer, with ≥ 50% of first generation technology market • first producer in the global ranking by market share and other three in the top

ten. • 2nd generation technologies: serious investments • Inverter: not an interesting player

ITALYThe budget of 2010 for the Italian PV is very positive

It still remains a significant gap with major international players, if Italy wants to play an important role on the international stage.

• growth of the Italian presence in the various stages of PV supply chain• growth in special application components (space, BIPV, CPV, Rail-Highways)• inverter Italian firms cover 63% of italian market, strong growth• Important development of the internationalization of Italian companies, in

particular: France, Israel, Greece, Germany, England , Turkey, Canada and the U.S.

Why China and Italy?

China: First investor in renewable energies, with an increase of 39%, in 2010 First producer of 1st generation PV modules and cells 50% of global CPV applications inbound (80MW) 2020 PV application Target 20 GW (today less than 1GW)

Italy: Fourth investor in renewable energies in 2010, with an increase of 124%, second in PV Second (7GW) in PV application in Europe, after Germany (17GW) Technological Leader for special applications (space, BIPV, CPV, Rail-Highways) Southern Italy will be the first region worldwide to achieve grid parity for solar energy in 2016 2015 expected PV application 20GW

China and Italy represent an interesting couple for further considerations and comparison.

China and Italy are in the top four in the clean energy investment, representing

together about one third of the total one (about 210 billions of $ in 2010)

strong OFFER

strong DEMAND

Modules prices by technology and countryPV prices trends

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

jan-10 feb-10 mar-10 apr-10 may-10 jun-10 jul-10 aug-10 sep-10 ott-10 nov-10 dec-10

Months of 2010

€/W

mono si (1st generation) €/W poli si (1st generation) €/W

a si (2nd generation) €/W Cd Te (2nd generation) €/W

Similar prices for 1° generation, lower prices for 2° generation,

due to low efficiency, not to low production costs!

PV Technolog

y

International Price

(dec. 2010)

Trend Price 2009 - 2010

Italian Price (dec. 2010)

Chinese Price

(dec. 2010)

mono si 1,58 - 17 /20% + 3-4% - 20%

multi si 1,58 17 /20% + 3-4% - 20%

a si 1,03 - 30% + 10% In line

Cd Te 1,40 - 13/15% in line In line

CIGS /CCS1,3-1,4 €/W(production cost data)

-55%(production cost data)

in line In line

CPV 4- 40%

(in next 5 years)

in line In line

Italy: market grew faster than production shortage periods

Inferior Chinese prices due to Chinese production costs

Technological situation in 2010

1st generation cells • China remains the fundamental player• 80% of the total installed power (50% mono, 50% poly-crystalline)• mono&poly-crystalline silicon module average price (end 2010) ≈ € 1.58 / W

CPV technology• cost of a system of concentration ≈ 4 to 4.5 € / W, • will shrink to 2 - 2.5 € / W (in t 5 years) 50% of global application in China• Italy is becoming CPV technological leader!

2nd generation• smaller success than expected• cadmium telluride reached 9% of total installation, 45% of 2nd generation (2,700 MW)• amorphous silicon (a-Si) rose from 5 to 8% of the total power• thin films reached 22-24% on new PV capacity installed by 2012

Inverter• Inverters continue to play a key role in influencing the overall efficiency of PV system and

prices• Italian technological leadership

Comparison among different PV technologies

Comparison among the different PV technologies

CellsConstruction maturity

of solar cells

Today energetic efficiency

Efficiency trend of

growth: target 2015

Energetic efficiency

physic limit

Assembling maturity of

Modules

How much the market believes in this technology.

Mono si good + 21% 24% 29 % good + achievable improvements now a day limited, requiring significant investmentsMulti si good 19 % 21% 29 % good -

a si medium 12 % Not available Not available Medium There is still interest, but less than two years earlierCdTe medium + 15% 30% Not available Medium

CIGS /CCS

Prototypal 11% 30% Not availableIn development

Short term: the growth prospects are scaled with respect to the operator forecast made in 2009.

Middle- long-term: interesting perspectives on the competitiveness

CPV good20% for

100x systems26 – 27 % 29% Sufficient

Return on investments: at the moment less attractive than

other technologies, except for Sunbelt areas.

不同的光伏技术比较

The market leaders of cells and modulesTechnologies Countries Market Leader by market share Technological Leader

Mono si

China, more than 50%

United States Germany Taiwan Japan

Suntech (China) First Solar (Usa) Q-Cells (Germany) Yingli (China) Trina (China) JA Solar (China) Motech (Taiwan) Sharp (Japan) Gintech (Taiwan) Conergy (Germany) Aleo Solar Germany) Solon GermanY) Centrosolar (Germany)

Market is mature, thus the driver is represented by costs and distribution channels

multi si

a si

United States Germany

UNI Solar (US) Schott Solar (Germany) Sharp (Japan) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)

UNI Solar (US) Schott Solar (Germany)

Cd Te

United States Germany

First solar (US) Abound solar (Germany) Prime Star Solar (US) Calyxo, Q-Cells Group (Germany)

First solar (US) Abound solar (Germany

CIGS /CCS

Usjapan

Solyndra (US) Miasole (US) Solar Frontier (Japan) Nanosolar (US)

Solyndra (US)

CPV

Spain United States Germany

Guascor Foton (Spain) Concentrix (Germany) Amonix (US) SolFocus (US) Emcore (US) Sharp (Japan) Isofoton (Spain) Arima Ecoenergy (Taiwan) Daido Steel (Japan) Solar Systems (Australia)

Not yet affirmed

Manufacturing and certification

Among reliable certifications of solar equipment: • UL – Underwriter Laboratories• IEEE – Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers• IEC – International Electro-technical Commission• CEN - EN – (European Committee for standardization)• UNI - Ente Nazionale Italiano di Unificazione (Italian National Agency for

Standardization).

Prices and conditions• first certification ≈ € 40,000 € + € 15,000 for following extensions• certification requires 2 - 3 months, 1 month for extension

Certificate characteristics• type test certificate assures module performances are compliance with standards• process quality certificate assures process compliance with requirements

Quality and performance certification and evaluation

To enter Europe, PV modules must be certified at least to following standards: • IEC 61215, on the photovoltaic modules in crystalline silicon• IEC 61646, on thin-film modules• IEC 62108, which concerns CPV systems.

To be checked:• aging cycles• decline of performances over time • other specific client requests

Be carefull:!Often the company moved to a different supplier of cells or because they are been replaced with

other critical components used in the module, such as glass or others.

At each change of one of the components of the module, the certification should be extended or at least a technical report should be submitted to prove compliance with the required quality.

Agenda1 • Introduction

2 •Lecture 1: Renewable Energy Outlook

3 •Lecture 2: PV application, Technology and Market

4 •Lecture 3: PV supply chain, financing and investment return analysis

5 •Lecture 4: Establishment of a PV Sino – European Joint Venture

6 •Conclusion

7 •Annexes

Lecture 3:

PV supply chain, financing and investment return analysis





Supply chain Comparison

16,2

37,7

11,0

14,2

3,5

11,6

5,8

22,6

52,4

8,3

4,23,55,63,5

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

Italy China

Comparison betewen Italy and China

2010. Supply chain in Italy and China

si and wafer cells and modules inverterother components distribution installationengineering activities

2010 年意大利和中国供应链China:

Percentual reduction of what

involves labour and to lower level.

Distribution costs are maintained,

because of China big dimensions and a distribution chain

still to organize.

Weight of PV System components

Italy - Cost weight of residential plant turn - key (%)

40%

10%11%

39%

Modules Structure Inverter Design and Installation

China. Cost weight of residential PV plant turn - key

53%

7%

14%

26%

Modules Structure Inverter Design and Installation

中国 - 住宅交钥匙成本比重％

意大利 - 住宅交钥匙成本比重％ China: lower labor cost, thus hardware has higher

weight!

Effort to reduce modules costs will be fundamental only in medium/big plants,

not residential: BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR CHINESE

PRODUCER

Plant segmentation

26,3

35,9

18,4

19,4

13,9

27,8

28,4

29,9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Italy China

comparison betwen Italy and China

2010. Total power segmentation (%)

>1000 KW 200-1000 KW 20-200 KW <20 KW

2010 年发电细分

China in small,

medium, big equally

Italybig plants and power plants

Europe - main regulatory issues for 2010 – 2011

欧盟主要国家支持计划评估Main EU countries support scheme assessment

Political support environment General political support situation

France Clear FiT evolution in 2011. Strong adverse lobbying from conventional stakeholders.Temporary revision of the FiT in 2011 leading to a complex scheme. End of moratorium. Heavy and slow administrative processes keeping prices artificially high

Germany Clear FiT evolution in 2011. Intermediate measure taken to avoid market to surge again.Willingness to control market within defined ranges. The simple and lean administrative framework can be bettered.

Italy Clear FiT evolution in early 2011. New Fourth Energy Bill able to assure the market and the Investors. Improving administrative process but long road to reduce costs and lead time

Spain Clear FiT evolution in 2011. Issues to be solved regarding market segmentation withinthe cap. Risk of retroactive law reduced. Heavy and slow administrative process

United Kingdom

Unclear FiT evolution in 2011. Strong political reaction in 2011 led to new scheme notfavorable to all segments.

Main regulatory issues in 2011

ITALYFourth Energy Bill (5th of May 2011)• Privileges for small and medium size on Buildings roofs• Encouragement of energy self consumption, in comparison of that sold and put in

the network “energy sales” requires serious investments in electrical infrastructures and their operation activities. • New 2016 installation target : 23 GW (3times 2020 target!)• From 2012 on: incentives reduction every six months.

CHINATwelfth Five-Year Plan (March 14th 2011) Environment & clean energy goals:• non-fossil fuel : 11.4% of energy consumption• energy consumption per unit of GDP: - 16 %• carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP: - 17 %Consideration• No official data • But surely government huge investment are expected in medium and large PV

plants. • Probably reduced follow out for family and small commercial applications

Financing Typologies (Italy)

Italy 2010 - Different financing typologies

14%

41%22%

23%

Loans Leasing Pure project financing Hybrid project financing

意大利 2010 - 融资类型

Italian installed PV capacity forecast

2006 - 2015. Italian cumulative capacity installed - Different scenarios

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Years

MW

Policy driven trend Moderate trend Italian target

2015 target already

surpassed!!!!

600 M€

Main Italian Economics

• Italian Modules producers:– MX group 83 million €– Solar day 73 million €;– Renergies 60 million €

• Italian integrated producer of cells and modules:– Solsonica 100 million €– Elios technology 61 million € – Xgroup 57 million € in 2010

• Distribution:– Enerpoint 100 million €– Tecno Spot 150 million– Coenergia 92 million

• Italian inverter:– Power-One 300 million €– Elettronica Santerno 50 million €– SIEL 100 million €

• System integratosr and EPC contractors: – Enel 320 million €– Enerpoint 150 million €– Ecoware 220 million €– Enerray 190 million €

400 M€

400 M€

700M€

1200 M€

MAIN PLAYERS MARKET SIZE

Tot Italian PV

Business7.6 billion €






6 •Conclusion

7 •Annexes

Lecture 4:

Establishment of a PV Sino – European Joint Venture





Symmetry evaluation CATHEGORIES China Italy Anti-

symmetric COMMENTS

Application: Market Dimension & Trends Growth in both countries (Italy 2° globallly)

Components: Market Dimension & Trends X China: 1st generation growing Italy: special application growing

Modules: Price & Trends XChina: 1st generation Price decrease 10% yearlyItaly: same level/slightly increasing because of bulk development

Weight of components(residential app)

Modules and cells 55% 40%X China: big weight of modules and cells

Italy: decreasing weightEngineeering 25% 40%

Weight of the various market segments

Large and Power Plants 27% 82%

XChina dedicated to residential (30%), medium (28%) and large plants (27%)Italy: strong weight of large plants (56% ) power plants (26%)Residential 30% 10%

Business models from China to Italy XChina: Production Italy: Sales and Owner engineering activity

Average Margin in Italian market X Italy: 10-15%, but volatileTechnological, technical and engineering knowledge and experince X

China: leadership in componentsItaly: leadership in application, engineering and inverter production

Incentive Policies in Italy Feed in Italy: interesting opportunity in applications

Financing policies in Italy Italy: interesting and diversified

Interesting grade of anti-symmetry!

business

from CHINA to ITALY

Description of a potential Sino – Italian Joint Venture

Chinese Partner characteristicsItalian Partner characteristics

Potential Business Models

Partners characteristicsChinese Partner1° generation experienced producers with good revenues and references in ChinaAbility to offer competitve prices in international markets (volumes and response time)Technical knowledge of applications

Italian PartnerSales and distribution supportAssembly activities supportBurocracy support (localization, permits,..)Owner engineering

Potential Business Models

Potential business models

Model Acronym Description

CP&E cell and module production in China pure export modality in Italy

CP&B cell and module production in China opening a commercial branch in Italy

CP&I&B cell and module production in China additional sales (included inverter) opening a commercial branch in Italy

CP&AI&B

cell and module production in China assembling activities in opening a commercial branch in Italy

CP&B&SI cell and module production in China System Integrator activities

CP&B&EPC

cell and module production in China opening a commercial branch in Italy EPC contactor activities

CP&B&O

cell and module production in China opening a commercial branch in Italy ownership of the plant

Production In China

Distribution in Italy

Assembly in Italy

Engineering in Italy

Mngmt/Ownership of

plants

COMBINATION OF

Market accessibility

Attractiveness / Positioning matrix

Market Attractiveness Chinese Player Positioning

25% 15% 10% 10% 15% 15% 10% 30% 15% 25% 10% 20%

Business models

Technology complexity

PV Italian

market growth

Financial aspects

Sitting

choice

and per

mitting

procedures

Application complexity

Competiti

ve frame work

Entry Barri

er

Brand and

References

Commerci

al presence

Commercia

l know - how

Technical know

how

Productive

know

how

CP&E 2 1 2 4 3 1 1 1 4 3 5 5 2

CP&B 2 2 3 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 2

CP&I&B 5 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 3

CP&AI&B 2 4 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 4 5

CP&B&SI 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 2 1 2 2 3

CP&B&EPC 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 2

CP&B&O 2 4 3 5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1

Evaluation of the business models 1/4

1 2 3

Market Dimension, Attractiveness and Positioning matrix synthesis

Model Acronym

Model Description Market Dimension

Total Attractiveness

Total Positioning

CP&E cell and module production in pure export modality in 2 1,7 3,8

CP&B cell and module production in opening a commercial branch in , 2 2,3 3,5

CP&I&B

cell and module production in additional sales (included inverter) opening a commercial branch in 5 2,7 3,7

CP&AI&B

cell and module production in assembling activities in (for those components sold in Italy)

opening a commercial branch in 2 3,6 3,3

CP&B&SI cell and module production in System Integrator activities 4 3,4 2,1

CP&B&EPC

cell and module production in opening a commercial branch in EPC contactor activities 5 4,6 1,2

CP&B&O

cell and module production in opening a commercial branch in ownership of the plant (or financial

participation)2 3,7 1,0

Evaluation of the business models 2/4HIGH EVALUATION MEDIUM EVALUATION

Chinese Player Positioning does not match so well with Market

Attractiveness, but in interesting way with the Market Dimension

Growth strategy:Chinese player needs alliance

with an Italian partner, not only for sales and distributions, but

also for the applications (system contractor, EPC, etc.), to better

match with market characteristics, thus growing

more and faster

Market Dimension, attractiveness and positioning

市场，吸引力和定位


Most interesting business models in 1°

quatrant!

Business models potentially more interesting for the export and sales modality

Number order

Model Acronym

Business Modeldescription

1 ACP&AI&B cell and module production in China assembling activities in Italy opening a commercial branch in Italy

2 CP&I&B cell and module production in China opening a commercial branch in Italy additional sales (included inverter)

3 CP&B cell and module production in China opening a commercial branch in Italy


1

2

3

•Most interesting business model. •Productive branch as significant added value.

•Interesting business model if the Chinese operator shall decide to have also a commercial branch and not only the assembling one.

Probably the start – up model, if the player does not decide to start directly with the commercial and productive branch

Possible D

eployment

Business Deploymentbusiness deployment in Italian market

CP&B; step 1

CP&I &B; step 2

CP&AI &B; step 3

0,0

2,5

5,0

0,0 2,5 5,0

positioning

att

racti

vit

y

CP&B CP&I&B CP&AI&B

通过工程伙伴关系的合作加强

Business reinforcement

Two Options: • Reinforcement of the Italian activities• Business enlargement in the Chinese market

Options are not alternative, but may be considered

as possible steps to follow during the activity growth

Reinforcement of the Italian activities 1/2

Commercials: export to Italy of Chinese components: Inverters for small applications LV/MV cables;

Engineering and application activities: System Integrator activities EPC contractor activities Ownership of PV plants (or financial participation).

This business may start when the Chinese industry will be competitive not only in price, but also in

quality;

Business more focused on the application and management phase, rather than on the export and sales

of components (cells, modules, inverters, etc.)

reinforcement trough the engineering partnership

CP&B&SI; 4

CP&B&EPC; 5

0,0

2,5

5,0

0,0 2,5 5,0

positioning

att

racti

vit

y

CP&B&SI CP&B&EPC

engineering company

Sistem integrator

EPC

engineering company partnership

通过工程伙伴关系的合作加强

Reinforcement of the Italian activities 2/2

Business enlargement in the Chinese market

Export from Italy to China high performance cells and

modules systems for CPV advanced High Power inverters

Possible export in China of Italian components/systems Component acronym Description

CM sp special cells, modules and systems also for space application

CM BIPV special cells, modules and systems for BIPV application

CM 2 Other special cells and modulesCPV 1 CPV trackers

CPV 2 CPV others components

HLIsophisticated inverters for PV Large PV and PV power plants

DC cabHV/MV DC cables for PV Large PV and PV power plants

Possible development in China of Italian Application services

Service acronym Description

BIPV BIPV applications

HRA highways and railways application

LP&PP PV Large Plants and PV power plants

CPVPP CPV power plants

R&D R&D and Innovation activities

意大利安装服务在中国的发展可能

可能出口中国的意大利组件 / 系统

Development of advanced PV applications:

BIPV applications CPV applications High & Railways applications

POSSIBLE TARGETS FOR THE JOINT VENTURE:1) Sales of cell and modules with a 10-15 million € of target;2) + Assembly activities 30-50% increment on (1)3) + Inverter sales 30% increment on point 1, starting this activity 3

years later the main one, waiting for Chinese components to reach European level

TIMING:• 6 months:

Joint Venture establishment Resources recruitment

• 24-30 months: Target achievement for sales activity Assembly activity can start

Further Considerations

Start ASAP

1. Before others do!

2. Before incentive reduce/finish!






6 •Conclusion

7 •Annexes

Conclusions The lecture presented a description and analysis of• Chinese and Italian market trends• supply chain of PV• incentive and financing mechanism • the return of investments • possible business

• Symmetry analysis

• Attractiveness analysis• Business model analysis

This analysis is based on information dated July 2011.

•strong growth in the order of two digit, a •production capacity not adequate to demand •incentives much higher than the amounts spent at European level.•2015 installation forecast: 10-15 GW

Interesting grade of anti-symmetryRoom for enterpreneurial initiative

China

Italy

•strong development of industries, •competitive prices •huge Chinese government investments, •2015 installation forecast: 12-18 GW

Most attractive: Export from China to Italy of components (mainly first generation cells and modules) probably with an Engineering support of Italian partners.

business from Italy to China less attractive, but can be great support business if added, for special

application (space, BIPV, CPV,Rail-Highways)

Thank you






6 •Conclusion

7 •Annexes

意大利和中国光伏市场建立 “ 中意合资企业 ” 评估 ASSESMENT OF ITALIAN AND CHINESE PV MARKET AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE INTEREST TO ESTABLISH A

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