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�State of global economy (GDP growth)�Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)�State of global economy (GDP growth)�Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)
Air travel demand drivers
20
Tra
ffic
& y
ield
gro
wth
in %
4
5
Traffic growth Real Yield growthReal GDP growth Sep 2010
World Real GDPWorld Passenger trafficWorld Cargo traffic
Air transport Air transport vsvs Economic growthEconomic growth
100150200250300350400450
1979
19811983198519
871989199119
931995199719
992001200320
0520
072009
1979
: Ind
ex B
ase
100
Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight
Factors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growth
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ICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalization
40%
50%
60%
40%
50%Number of frequenciesNumber of country-pair routes
' ����������������� ���(���( ��)���
Air transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangements
4��1!��"��� ��!���&������
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1995 1999 2004 20090%
10%
20%
30%
�!�"���������
Number of LCCs : 13Deregulation : 1978
Number of LCCs : 33Network carriers
79%
LCCs
21%
Network carriers
86%
LCCs
14%
Network carriers
79%
LCCs
21%
Number of LCCs : 48
Deregulation : 1987- 1997
Liberalization: a necessary frame for Low Cost Carriers development
Deregulation : accelerating
Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10
Deregulation : uneven
Number of LCCs : 10
Deregulation : in progress
LCCs development by region
79%
Network carriers
76%
LCCs
24%
Network carriers
91%
LCCs
9%
Source: ICAO
Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines� mergers and acquisitionsToward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines� mergers and acquisitions
3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic
Most well-known Non Aligned airlines
The new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodology
�� Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length :capacities and average distance stage length :
�� Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length :capacities and average distance stage length :
Orders and Deliveries of Boeing and Airbus , 1975-2009
2000
2500
3000
Nu
mb
er o
f Air
craf
t
Orders1473
1095
2871
Strong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturersStrong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturers
0
500
1000
1500
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989199
1199
3199
5199
7199
9200
1200
3200
5200
7200
9201
1201
3201
5
Nu
mb
er o
f Air
craf
t
Deliveries
715
1473
443
Source: aircraft manufacturers
DeliveriesForecasts
Need to monitor closely any potential impact on Safety as 60% of aircraft replacement are for growth
979
452
Consolidating various ICAO data sourcesConsolidating various ICAO data sources
� 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots , Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities
� SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing,
� 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots , Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities
� SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, (USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training
� ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel
� Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances
� Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology
(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training
� ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel
� Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances
� Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology
*SAAQ: State Aviation Activity Questionnaire
2010 Licensed aviation personnel population2010 Licensed aviation personnel population
NORTH AMERICAICAO
Pilots 290211Mechanics 355009
EUROPEICAO
Pilots 85306Mechanics 85183ATCOs 27401
ASIA PACIFICICAO
Pilots 50344
MIDDLE EASTICAO
Pilots 9202Mechanics 355009ATCOs 19735
LATIN AMERICAICAO
Pilots 24065Mechanics 25353ATCOs 2047
Pilots 50344Mechanics 78609ATCOs 14081
Pilots 9202Mechanics 14866ATCOs 1996
AFRICAICAO
Pilots 4258Mechanics 21906ATCOs
WORLDICAO
Pilots 463386Mechanics 580926ATCOs 67024
80% of the States have a mandatory retirement age of 65 years for pilots
1764
Source: ICAO
Future pilots requirements* vs training capacitiesFuture pilots requirements* vs training capacities
EuropePilots Capacity
ICAO 15 552 7 955
North AmericaPilots Needs Capacity
ICAO 10 449 27 655Middle East
Pilots CapacityICAO 2 458 860
Most likely scenario
*Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories;: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters
Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities
Asia / PacificPilots Capacity
ICAO 13 983 4 935
AfricaPilots Capacity
ICAO 3 814 1 010
Pilots capacityICAO 6 250 1 945
Latin America
Pilots Capacity
ICAO 52 506 44 360
World
Source: ICAO preliminary figures
ICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation ProfessionalsICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation Professionals
�� The need for reliable statisticsThe need for reliable statistics
�� The «The « Best and the BrightestBest and the Brightest »»
�� The need for reliable statisticsThe need for reliable statistics
�� The «The « Best and the BrightestBest and the Brightest »»
�� Facilitating the use of competencyFacilitating the use of competency--based based approachesapproaches
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The statements made herein are based onthe mentioned assumptions and areexpressed in good faith. Where thesupporting grounds for these statementsare not shown, ICAO will be pleased toexplain the basis thereof.