' A FISTFUL OF What does it mean to talk about the risk of, say, being in an airplane crash or being snuck by lightning? Calculations of risks are averages, so they have limited value to the individual. Airplanes, for Instance, may be safe in terms of death: passenger mile, but that says 1 about the flight you’re abet board-one that entails sev takeoffs and landings in bad weather, on a day following a night when the pilot may have had a few too many. To state a risk im- plies a foretelling, but this predictive power is misleading. Risk calculations almost always use historical data and mask the du- AT HOME Risk of falling behind in mortgage payments in the next 12 months: 1 in24 Risk of foreclosure: 1 in 345 AT WORK Risk of an adult (over 16) losing his or her job in the next year: 1 in33 By profession: DOCTOR 1 in 116 LAWYER 1 in 82 POSTAL WORKER 1 in41 ACCOUNTANT 1 in40 BUS DRIC’ER 1 in22 FARMWORKER 1 in 8 Risk of dying in an accident on the job: m 1934 390 in a million w 1994 40 in a million Occupations with high risk of injury: TRUCKERS COAL MIhYERS Occupations with low risk of injury: STOCKBROKFRS LAU’YFRS INSCRANCE EXECUTn’ES RISKS bious assumpnon th3: :Y: *__- _-: will behave like the pa\: With these caveats tn n.:-- . . _ combed the statistics of nslx . ._ havior to come up with a irr numbers to ponder. In many c&xx we had to knead the data into L+. format of risk-a ratio, less than one, of outcomes to possibilities, within a span of time-the num- ber of people struck hy liphming in a year divided by the num- ber who could have been struck. All these figures pertain to the United States unless otherwise noted, but be forewarned: to take them literally is risky indeed. IN THE FIELD Risk of being injured in an elevator ride: 1 in 6 mullion Risk of dying from: ~.\R’I’ l IC.XGJ ()R \~OI.C.GY~ 1 in 11 million LE.uds(; c; 1s 1 in 12 million DOG BITF 1 in 20 million DRISKIS(; DF-rER(;E\-I‘ 1 in 23 million SSAKEBITE 1 in 36 million The risk of contracting an infection during a stay at a U.S. hospital: lin15 The risk of being infected with flesh- eating bacteria: 1 in 170,000 Risk of dying once infected: 1 in4 Risk, for an African, of contracting the Ebola virus: 1 in 14 million Risk of dying once infected: 2 in 3 Riskiest meals out (in Minnesota): Minnesota may not be repre- sentative of the country as a whole, but no other state keeps such close tabs on who gets sick where. We arrived at
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' A FISTFUL OFWhat does it mean to talk about
the risk of, say, being in an airplane
crash or being snuck by lightning?
Calculations of risks are averages,
so they have limited value to the
individual. Airplanes, for Instance,
may be safe in terms of death:
passenger mile, but that says 1
about the flight you’re abet
board-one that entails sev
takeoffs and landings in bad weather, on a day following a night
when the pilot may have had a few too many. To state a risk im-
plies a foretelling, but this predictive power is misleading. Risk
calculations almost always use historical data and mask the du-
AT HOMERisk of falling behindin mortgage paymentsin the next 12 months:
1 in24
Risk of foreclosure:1 in 345
AT WORKRisk of an adult (over16) losing his or herjob in the next year:
1 in33By profession:DOCTOR
1 in 116
LAWYER1 in 82
POSTAL WORKER1 in41
ACCOUNTANT1 in40
BUS DRIC’ER1 in22
FARMWORKER1 in 8
Risk of dying in anaccident on the job:m 1934
390 in a millionw 1994
40 in a million
Occupations with highrisk of injury:
TRUCKERSCOAL MIhYERS
Occupations with lowrisk of injury:
STOCKBROKFRSLAU’YFRSINSCRANCE EXECUTn’ES
R I S K Sbious assumpnon th3: :Y: *__- _-:
will behave like the pa\:
With these caveats tn n.:-- . . _
combed the statistics of nslx . ._
havior to come up with a irr
numbers to ponder. In many c&xx
we had to knead the data into L+.
format of risk-a ratio, less than
one, of outcomes to possibilities,
within a span of time-the num-
ber of people struck hy liphming in a year divided by the num-
ber who could have been struck. All these figures pertain to the
United States unless otherwise noted, but be forewarned: to
take them literally is risky indeed.
IN THE FIELDRisk of being injuredin an elevator ride:
1 in 6 mullion
Risk of dying from:~.\R’I’l IC.XGJ ()R \~OI.C.GY~
1 in 11 millionLE.uds(; c; 1s
1 in 12 millionDOG BITF
1 in 20 millionDRISKIS(; DF-rER(;E\-I‘
1 in 23 millionSSAKEBITE
1 in 36 million
The risk of contractingan infection during astay at a U.S. hospital:
lin15
The risk of beinginfected with flesh-eating bacteria:
1 in 170,000Risk of dying onceinfected:
1 in4
Risk, for an African, ofcontracting the Ebolavirus:
1 in 14 millionRisk of dying onceinfected:
2 in 3
Riskiest meals out (inMinnesota):Minnesota may not be repre-sentative of the country as awhole, but no other statekeeps such close tabs on whogets sick where. We arrived at
these figures by estimatingthat each state resident goesto each type of restaurantonce a year-which may notbe the case. At any rate, here’syour yearly risk of being poi-soned at the following:IT.%L4N RESTAL’R~\-F
1 in 1,400,OOOFAST-FOOD REST-AL-Ri1-T
1 in 440,000BUSINESS .\IEETITG
1 in 400,000FAMILY G,\THERISG
1 in 388,000DELICATESSES
1 in 240,000MEXICLN RESTAURrLlT
1 in 136,000
more often than adult,. hutthey lead safer In es-1 2 chil-dren per 1 OO,OO( 1 JIG ri( ,rn anaccident yearh. ab RX J rhirdthe rate for adults. Thi, chn-ously should not deter p.u-cm\from vigilance. But here’, howthose childhood AccIJcnrdldeaths break dew nMOTOR \THICI F
46 percentFIRE5
15 percentDRO\\NINC,
15 percentFALL.\
3 percentCHOKII(,
3 percentGUNS
3 percent
POISONTNG1 percent
OTHER13 percent
The risk of a chikdying before the
age of five:I\ V )L I I I \\I \
1 in 8I\ 1111 1\lIII)\I\II
1 in 1001 EEI\.Ac;t HEHAVIOK
The risk that theaverage teenager willdrink hard liquor:! 1 u1.1
1 in 60()S(:E OR 73iTCE .A 5IONTH
1 in6
The risk that ateenager will smokemarijuana:DVLY
1 in30ONCE OR 71f’ICE A MONTH
1 in 17
The risk that ateenager will usecocaine:D-ULY
1 in 100OSCE OR TUTCE A MONTH
1 in 140
The risk of anadolescent or youngadult, aged 14 to 25,dying from:( \K ACCIDFNT
1 in 3,500\IL KI>F R
1 m 4,iOOx: I( IDF
I m 7.700
iiClcILT HEtiA~IIUR\Ien are 2.3 times as likely todue in a car crash, 3.3 times as11kel!- to poison themselves,and -.-1 times as likely to diefrom \I[)4 as women.
The price:Since risk calculations arebased on al erages, they areoften difficult to interpret.
Here are some risky activitiesand the associated costs to lifeexpectancy. The figures give afeeling for relative risks, butit would be silly to take themliterally.DRIVING WITHOUT A SEATBELT ON
6 seconds (per trip)DRINKING A DIET SOFTDRINK
9 secondsSMOKING ONE CIGARETTE
12 minutesBEING BORN MALE
2,700 days
The risk of dying whilegiving birth:IN IRELAND
1 in 50,000IN THE LNITED STATES
1 in 12,500IN MALI
1 in 50
Your peak years fordying from:ACCIDENT AGEDROWNING, o - 5
knows that airtravel is safer per passengermile than car travel (morethan 40 times safer on aver-age). But that doesn’t neces-sarily mean that you’re saferflying on your next vacationthan driving. If you live, say,in Lafayette, Indiana, here’show the risk of death fromtraveling to two popular vaca-tion spots stacks up:DRIVING 100 MILES TOCHICAGO AND BACK
1 in 588,000FLYING 5,000 MILES FRO,MCHICAGO TO ROME ANDBACK
1 in 500,000
SAFEST STATE FOR DRIVINGRhode Island
\IOST DANGEROUSWyoming
Risk of beinginvolved in an
alcohol-relatedtraffic accident in
a lifetime:
C R I M EIn the next 12 months,your risk, on average,of being:MURDERED
1 in 11,000ROBBED
1 in 400BURGLARIZED
1 in 50
The risk of somebodystealing:YOUR CAR
1 in 145YOUR BICYCLE
1 in 280YOUR WALLET OR PURSE
1 in 1,560
AND IF YOU REALLYNEED TO WORRYThe risk of your beingwiped out (with nearlyeverybody else onEarth) next year by acatastrophic comet,meteor, or asteroidimpact:
1 in 20,000
Your risk of being hit,directly, by a formercelestial body: