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World Bank Report No. 51667-ECACopyright 2009Europe and Central Asia Human Development Department/The World Bank1818 H Street, NWWashington, DC 20433, U.S.A.All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of AmericaFirst Printing: November 2009The full report as well as the Executive Summary in Russian is postedat www.worldbank.org/eca/roadsafety.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.Printed in Russia, Moscow, Alex Publishers (Sole proprietor Polikanin A.A.) , , ( ..)
-
iii
.......................................................................................................................................................... vii ........................................................................................................................................ viii
........................................................................................................................................................................ xi
I. .......................................................................................................................................................1
1. ......................................12. - ? ..........................................................................................................23. , ...............................................................................34. ,
...........................................................................................................................................35. : .......................................................46. .......................................................................................................................................................5
II. - ......................................................................7
1. ...................................................................................................................................................72. : ...............................................................................93. ................................................................................................................................114. ......125. - .......................................................156. .........................................................................................................................187. - ? ....................................................................................18
III. . ? ......................................23
1. , ..........................................................................................23
2. .......................................................................................243. , ......................................................254. ............................................................................295. ,
.........................................................................................................................................306. ...............................317. ? ......................................338. : ........................................................349. , ..............................................................................37
IV. - .................................................................................41
1. ............................................................................412. .....................................................................423. ...............................................424. ...........................445. ..................................................................................................................456. ......................................................................45
-
iv
V. ....49
1. .......................................................492. ..................................................................................................503. - :
........................................................................................................................................................51
4. .....................................................545. ............................................................................................................................556. ,
( ) ..............................................................................................................................557. .............................................................................57
VI. , ....................................61
1. ......................................................................................................................612. ..................................................................................623. .................................624. , 2004 . .........................625. ,
..............................................................................................................................................63
VII. ................................................................................................................................71
1. 2004 .: ? ...................................712. .............................................................................723. ...................................................................................................................................754. .........................................................................................................78
VIII. : .....................................................................................................................................81
1. : ......................................................................................................................81
2. .........................................................................................................................................82
3. ............................................................................................................834. ,
.......................................................................................................................835. ....................................................................................................................................856. ..........................................................................................................................................857.
....................................................868. ?
...........................................................................................................................879. : .....87
......................................................................................................................................................................89.
....................................................................................................................93
-
v 1. .....................................................................................................................................................93
2. ...................................................................................94
3. : .............................................................................................................................................95
..................................................................................................................................................99
1.
( ) 15 2002 . ......................................................2 2. -
, -27 19802007 . ( 100 ) ..........................10 3.
2007 . ( 100 ) .........................................................................................13 4.
, 0 14 15 24 19802005 . ..................................................................................................................................................16
5. - (2005 .) .......................................................................33
1.
.....................................................................................................................................8 2. 2004 2030 . ( ) ..............................................................8 3. .....11 4.
(2007 .).......................................................................................................14 4.
(2007 .).......................................................................................................15 6. - -
( 2008 .) ........................................................................................................................19 7.
? .......................................................................................................................................30 8.
.........................................................................................................................................32 9. ..................................................................................49 10. ,
.........................................................................................................................................84 11.
.........................................................................................................................................86
-
vi
1. .....12 2. -
.....................................................................17 3. ..................................28 4.
..................................................................................................................34 5. ........................................................................................35 6. ?...............................................................................................37 7. .................................................................................38 8. ...................................................................................46 9. :
.........................................................................................52 10. ,
...........................................................................................64 11. ,
........................................................................................................................................................67
-
vii
, - 2009 ., () : - (ECSHD) , , - (ECSSD) . , - , , - - (-), (), . , - (, ).
- . (- ) ( -, ECSSD), .
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: ( - - , ) ( , ); ( - - ); . (- ECSCD); ( ECAVP); ( , ); (- - HNP, ); - ( ECSSD);
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- - (ECAVP) - (ECAVP), , - .
- . ( , , ECSHD), . (- , ECSSD) ( , ). ( ECSHD), . ( ECSSD) - ( -, ) .
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, -, , () 1. - , , , - , - , - , - - .
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1 , , , .
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-, - .
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-
xii
, -, -. , , - , - .
(, , , 80 50%). - , - , - , - , . , - () - (), - . - 1,3 50 , 90% , 48% (WHO 2009a). 2030 . - . - , - , -.
- . () - 1000 120% 64 1990 141 2003 (UNECE and WHO EURO 2009).
-- : - 1000 18 1994 48 2002 , 143 276. - , : 400600 - 1000 (UNECE and WHO EURO, 2009). - (Eurostat 2007). , , -, , . , -, . ( . ) ( ) 1990- : , 18% 157% , 21% 75% -102, 46% 144% - . , , 1990- , -- , - . - 800 , 12 000 .
6 - 100 , -, , (2006 ) - - - , - -. 2007 . 839%. 2007 . - , 10 - , , - 80 . , , - ,
2 10 , 2004 : , , -, , , , , , .
-
xiii
800 , 2007 .
- : 55% - 15 44 , 1529 ( 80% - ). - . , ; 79 , , .
- , . - . , , , - : 40 % .
-:
-, , , - -, (, - );
- , - - ;
: , , , -, , - , - , .
- , -. , -- - 1% , 1,5% - 2% . - 500 . . - : (34 . ), (14 . ), (10 . ) - (5 . ). - , - , , - , -- , , .
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-, . , - , , , , - , , , - . - , - , , , .
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-
xiv
. , , -, , - , , - .
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- - , , - , , - , - . - - , - . , -- , - , , . ( ) - .
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(), a -, -
2030 - , -. - - , . - - - , , . - . -, , - - - . , , , - .
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- 2004: ? (Peden and others 2004) , , - :
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xv
, - -, - , -- .
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.
, , , - - . , , - - (Bliss and Breen, 2009).
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xvi
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-
xvii
, - , -, (, - , - , ). , - - , - , , , . - - . , .
- 2010 2016 . , , , - - - . , . , , , - .
, - 2009 , , - , - . , - - .
, , - , -, - , , , - , , - .
-- 2004 (Bliss and Breen 2009) :
. - - . , . - - - -.
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-
xviii
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. , , - . - - , - : , , -. . - - . - .
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, , , - -
.
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-
xix
. - - , , - ( , - ).
?
- - . , , , - , - . - , , - , , - - , . -, - .
, , -
- . - - , , , -. , , - -, , , , , - .
- , (World Bank 2008a), - 2004 (Bliss and Breen 2009c). , - (Healthy Development), - , - - (World Bank 2007a). , - , , , , - , (Zoellick 2008).
-
xx
1
-
1 - : , , - , (World Bank 1996). (, , -, 80 50%) (Commission of the European Communities 2001). - - -, , (Banister and Wright 2005; Straub 2008). - () - , - , - .
, , -- , , , . - - - . , , -
. , -, - . , , - , - .
1.
, - - , . , - , , - , , - , 3. -, , , - , , , , , - , , , -
3 , , - , 80% (UNECE and WHO EURO 2009).
, , . /, . - .
, , , 1984 .
I.
-
2 - .
, , 2002 . - -154 8% (). 1, - ( 1000 --) , . - -, - . - , , , , , , .
2. - ?
- - - : - , 30 - (WHO 2009a). - ; , , , - . , , -, -, , 24 (WHO 2009a).
4 -15 , , , , , , , , , , , , , .
, . - , , , 2% - () (UNECE and WHO EURO 2009).
, - . , - () 30% 55 (), , - - (), 55 45 (UNECE/WHO-EURO 2009). , ,
1. ( ) 15 2002 .
/ : (): http://themes.eea.europa.eu/Sectors_and_activities/transport/indicators/cost/TERM25,2002/index_html.
/
-
33. ,
- - (Kopits and Cropper 2003). 25 - . ( - ) - . , - (-, ), .
- - -, - , . -, , - -, - () (Tiwari, 2000). - - , , - , , - , -, .
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- . , , - , , 15 (UNECE and WHO EURO 2009), . , , , - - .
, - - , - , - . , - , - , , , .
4. ,
- , -, , , - . , - - , , - (Yasuf, Nabeshima, and Ha 2007). , , , , - , , , - . ,
-
4 - - , - , , , , (WHO 2006).
, - - , -, - 5. , , -, , , , - , , - - .
, - - - - (WHO-EURO 2006).
5. :
- (Commission for Global Road Safety, 2009), - - , . , , , - - , - (). -5
(UNECE and WHO EURO 2009), .
, , - , - - -. - - .
- (Commission for Global Road Safety, 2009), , - - , 4 , - , - -, , . , , - - , - , , , -, - , , , .
- - , (, - - -), , -. , - - - , - -. , , (Bakefi 2006).
-
56.
, - , - - , - . - - ; - , , ; , ; , - , , - , , , - , - . , , , - ( ) , .
, , -, -
( ), , - ( ). . , - .
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- , , - , , - -, -. , - - .
-
62
-
71.
- ? , 100 - (OECD and ECMT, 2006). - , .
- , - (). 1 . , - 2000 2020 . - 66%, ,
. 80%, 30%. 90% -- , - 48% (WHO 2009a). 20 100 , (), 10,3 100 (WHO 2009a).
. , - -- . , - (Plasencia and Borrell 2001; Murray and Lopez 1996).
, - , , , , , , .
,
175 , .
, , - , 3 2009
II. -
-
8 1.
2000 2020 . (%)
144
80
80
68
48
18
83
-28
66
: Kopits and Cropper (2003).
- - (WHO 2004a). 2, 2004 . - 1,3 2,2% ; , 2030 . 2,1 3,2% . , 20 50 - , (Murray and others 2001; Peden and others 2004).
10 24 ( 30% -), , , 2015 . - 5 14 . , - (), , - ().
- , -, - , . 46% (WHO 2009a).
2. 2004 2030 . ( )
2004
()
%
1 7,2 12,2
2 -
5,7 9,7
3
4,2 7,1
4
3,0 5,1
5 2,2 3,7
6 / 2,0 3,5
7 1,5 2,5
8 , , 1,3 2,3
9 -
1,3 2,2
10
1,2 2,0
11 .. 1,1 1,9
12 1,1 1,9
13 1,0 1,7
14 0,9 1,5
15
0,9 1,5
2030
()
%
1 9,6 14,2
2 -
8,2 12,1
3
5,8 8,6
4
2,8 3,8
5 , , 2,3 3,6
6 2,2 3,3
7 -
2,1 3,2
8 1,5 2,2
9 1,3 1,9
10 / 1,2 1,8
11 1,1 1,6
12 0,98 1,5
13 0,95 1,4
14 0,94 1,4
15 0,88 1,3
: WHO (2008a).
-
9- - - , - , - (Borrell and others 2005; Nantulya and Reich 2003; Roberts and Power 1996, Peden and others 2004). , - , -, -- , - , (Natulya and Reich 2003, and Mock and others 1997).
2. :
- - -. , , 1990- , (, ), , . , - -, , ( ), , -, - .
- . () - 1000 120% 64 1990 141 2003 (UNECE and WHO EURO 2009). -- : 1000 18 1994 48 2002 , 143 276. ,
: 400600 - 1000 (UNECE and WHO EURO, 2009). - 800 , 12 000 , 80% . - - ( , - ) - (Eurostat 2007).
- -, , . , , , , -. - , , . - 1990- : -, 18% 157% , 21% 75% -106, 46% 144% - . , , , 1990- , - , - - .
. - -. 2006 . , , -, 6 100 . 1970 2005 . -- - 61%. ()7 - 1990- , 1997 . -, ( 2),
6 10 , 2004 : , , , , , , , , .
7 , , , , , , , , , , , -, , , , .
-
10
- ( ) (OECD and ITF, 2008). , - , , (Sethi and others 2006a; Hyder and Aggarwal 2009). - , : - - , .
3 - 20062007 . , 2007 . -
, 127 80 73% , - 28% . , , , - 72% - , 27% (WHO 2009a).
2007 . - - 820 000 (WHO 2009a). , , , 2005 . - 95 000 ; 13% - (Esiyok and others 2005). - , . ( ), 43% -- 20% , , , - , (Ameratunga and others 2006). , -, -, .
, , - (). , , , . - , - ( - ), , - (Murray 1993; Murray and Lopez 1993). , , ,
2. - , -27 19802007 . ( 100 )
: , , , , , , , , , , -. -27 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , -, , , .
: WHO EURO Health for All Data Base (2009).
-
11
, . , . , 3,1% - , - (-15) 2,4% ( 20 2009 .). , -
-15 (WHO 2005a).
- -. 1, - , . - - - , - , - .
3.
- , , (21,8 100 -), -15 (7,9 100 ) ( WHO 2009a, - 3). - (30,6 100 000 ), - (25,2 100 ) - (22,8 100 -). , 2007 . 33 308
, . - , - ( -), -, - , (Janke 1991, BTS 1997). , - , ,
3.
- ,
2006 .
- ,
2007 . %, 20062007 .
, 2007 .
277 384 38,6 1 344
332 371 11,7 2 720
1 027 1 107 7,8 3 432
/ 1 517 / 7 991
/ 428 / 11 647
/ 1 006 / 9 827
/ 619 / 25 092
/ 1 222 / 23 060
/ 196 / 3 270
675 737 9,2 7 349
/ 1 232 / 27 452
/ 4365 / 32 988
1 051 1 252 19,1 6 223
/ 407 / 5 404
/ 759 / 8 254
/ 589 / 2 985
/ 122 / 2 796
/ 5 583 / 63 224
/ 2 712 / 29 832
32 724 33 308 1,8 292 206
/ 962 6,8
/ 627 / 11 310
/ 293 / 16 449
/ 464 / 2 048
140 173 23,6 6 133
4 633 5 004 8,0 169 080
650 1 606
7 592 9 921 30,7 40 887
/ 2 034 / /
/ = .
: ITF (2008); WHO (2009a).
-
12
- ; 47% 47 ; 48% 68 - (Camos-Daurella and Silcock 2009).
4.
- - -, . 4 - - . , - : 40 75%.
- 40 , -, , . -- , - (, , -), - . -
60 - (/), - 50 / 30 / (Racioppi and others 2004; UNECE and WHO EURO 2009). ,
, - - , -, , , , . , - () (), - (), ( ) () , (-, , - , - - [], -- []) (, -- ), .
. , , , . , - , . , - - . , . - , , , , , .
, -- , . : ; , ; ; - (, ) -. . , , , , . , , - , , .
: Racioppi and others (2004).
1.
- , , , - - - . , 2008 . 21% 35%
-
13
. , , : 30 50 /, - .
, - -,
. . , - - , : , 20 , . 79 , , - (Racioppi and others 2004; Sethi, Racioppi, and Bertollini 2007).
3. 2007 . ( 100 )
e: - .
: WHO EURO (2009).
$
$
-
14
- - -, , . , - . , , -
, - , , - , - , , -- .
- -, - - 1825 (Sethi, Racioppi, and Bertollini 2007). () , - 0,04 (/). - - . , - , : 11,9
(100%- ) . , 6,2 (Rehm and others 2009). - .
(- 5) , 2008 . -
4. (2007 .)
/
40 6 9 24 22
39 1 / 34 26
38 1 1 28 31
40 9 4 24 23
24 6 5 38 23
26 4 / 65 ( )
20 5 19 29 21
19 10 11 41 18
19 9 6 39 27
28 1
23 12 10 34 21
37 1 / 23 32
43 1 4 43 /
37 8 4 31 19
32 7 5 28 26
34 2 4 25 33
20 4 48 27
35 9 5 30 21
11 7 8 52 23
36 2 34 28
34 8 8 32 17
11 6 18 22 43
25 9 6 37 22
44 6 1 18 30
34 4 11 29 12
19 2 8 24 31
29 5 / /
43 9 8 35 /
/ / / / /
/ = .
: , (WHO, 2009a).
-
15
( , , , -). -, , , -, , . - -. - - - (Hours and others 2008).
5. -
. - - , , ( , -). - , -, (UNECE 2003). ( , ), . 15 24 , 0 14 . - 4. - , . 19891991 , - - , , 1997 . 15 29 : -
5. : (2007 .)
(%)
(%)
5 21
6 17
3 14
13 2
7 4
5 38
30 10
3 6
48 5
37 2
12 7
3
5
, , .
: , (WHO, 2009a).
, 30% , , , , 10% . - , , .
( ) 2004 . , - : -- , . - (Zaridze and others 2009), , , ( ) , - , -- .
- . -
-
16
(WHO 2002).
- . 0 14 , - , - (48%); (32%), (9%) (6%) (UNECE and WHO EURO 2009; Sethi, Racioppi, and Mitis 2007). 1517 (40%) - (31%); (21%) (5%). - : .
. 60 --
, , - . 1529 , , -, , - , , . , - - (). -, , , , , .
. -, .
4. , 0 14 15 24 19802005 .
: WHO EURO (2009).
u
u
u
u
u
u
-
17
, - ( 2, World Bank 2005a, 2009a).
. - - . -, , 2004 . - 10 24 , - ( - - ) : - 24 179 100 -, 65% 48% (Patton and others 2009). 2007 . - 74 83% (WHO 2009a). - , , (WHO EURO, 2006). , - , , , .. - , , , - . - - (McKee and Shkolnikov, 2001, Bye 2008). , , - , (Rehm and others 2009). - - 1012 .
- () - . , , - , (), - . - , , , .
25,2 100 , , , -, , , , , , , , (OECD/EMCT 2008). -, , , , . , - . 2007 . 30 - , . : , . , , .
, 10 , 12,2, 50% , (8,2), , . -. : 0,12, .. 12% , . - 510 , (, - , ). , , , , .
1992 . - , 1999 . . . 2007 . , , 21,5 100 ( 1999 . 13 100 ), 14% , . , , , . , , , .
a. , , , , , , , ; .
: World Bank (2005a, 2009a).
2. -
-
18
6.
, - . - 36 -15 (Sethi and others 2006, Mohan 2002a, 2002b). -15 - -, , -, - -, .
7. - ?
. - - , - . - , - 30 86% -, , - 20 . - , , : - , 25% 60 (Odero, Garner, and Zwi 1997). - , -- 13 31% , - , - 48% , .
, - - -, , . 75% , - 60% - (, -
, ). 2003 . , - , 0,27% () 1,2 (World Bank 2005a). 10% .
. - - - (Peden and others 2004; Mohan 2002a, 2002b; Jacobs, Aeron-Thomas and Astrop 2000), - - . - , - , (Blincoe and others 2002). - - , , , .
- , , , - , , , (- ). - , - . , , (Blincoe and others 2002).
, - , , - , , -
-
19
.
, - 80% - : 2% , , 44% , - (NHTSA 1987; Miller, Luchter, and Brinkman 1989, as reported in Ameratunga, Higar, and Norton 2006).
, - , - , 518 , : 1% , 1,5% 2%
(Peden and others 2004; Jacobs, Aaron-Thomas, and Astrop 2000).
. , , 3% (ECMT 2006). 6 , - - - , 1,5% . , , - . - (34 ), (14 ), (10 ) (5 .
6. - - ( 2008 .)
( .)a
. (.)
- b
-
( .)c
(.)d
2 285 16 161 34 506 246 34,3 1 131 270
937 13 447 4 496 59 14,1 941 290
669 17 560 5 583 145 10,0 1 229 200
350 7 634 6 966 152 5,3 534 380
273 12 698 2 794 126 4,1 888 860
266 25 755 1 221 120 4,0 1 802 850
199 19 830 1 232 124 3,0 1 388 100
180 11 563 3 136 204 2,7 809 140
118 12 344 1 688 175 1,8 864 080
120 22 242 627 115 1,8 1 556 940
94 12 372 1 006 140 1,4 866 040
78 8 958 1 027 125 1,2 627 060
81 10 911 897 88 1,2 763 770
73 16 474 614 137 1,1 1 153 180
71 2 606 2 075 75 1,1 182 420
64 18 855 739 208 1,0 1 319 850
58 28 894 292 146 0,9 2 022 580
40 17 801 419 188 0,6 1 246 070
30 5 765 533 109 0,5 403 550
30 7 618 436 95 0,5 533 260
28 20 754 196 151 0,4 1 452 780
19 5 437 259 87 0,3 380 590
( )
-
20
( .)a
. (.)
- b
-
( .)c
(.)d
22 5 001 637 138 0,3 350 070
22 6 797 277 76 0,3 475 790
19 9 128 143 69 0,3 638 960
11 3 154 391 90 0,2 220 780
12 2 174 892 164 0,2 152 180
13 1 984 483 66 0,2 138 880
7 10 414 122 181 0,1 728 980
5 2 300 152 84 0,1 161 000
a. IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2008.
b. : , , . 200305 .
c. 1,5% 2008 .
d. , , , . (). : , , -, . , , , .. , , . - , . () , . ( ). , ,, . , , , , , (McMahon and Dahdah, 2008). , , , , , 70 . (European Road Safety Observatory, 2006). , 23 . - , 6080 , 70- , McMahon & Dahdah (2008).
: , , , , , McMahon and Dahdah (2008).
6. - - ( 2008 .)
()
-
21
-
22
3
-
23
- - , , . - . , , , - , (Peden and others 2004, World Bank 2007a).
, - , , ( ) . , , - , - (Bliss and Breen 2009).
1. ,
- - ,
, - , - , . , - , - - (Ross and others 1991). - - - , : , ; ; - , - ; (OECD and ITF 2008).
- - . , , -, , , . Macaulay and McInerney (2002), - , , 1:20.
, ,
,
III. . ?
-
24
- - , - : , -, ( ), , - (World Bank 2003). , , , , - , (ETSC 1998). Cirillo and Council (1986) , - , - , -, .. - 30%. , -- , , - . - , , , - : 33% , 19941998 ., , 40% 2010 . (DETR 2007).
, - (, ), - - , , (Afukar 2003). - , , - , (Bunn and others 2003).
, - - (ICF Consulting Ltd. and Imperial College Centre for Transport Studies 2003). -
, -, , - 14%, 6% (Elvik and Vaa 2004).
2.
, - , , (, ), (, ), , - (, - [ESC]8. (-) , - , 2012 ESC -). - , , (, - ), (Peden and others 2004). ,
8 ESC , , - . , -, , -, . , , ESC, , - , () . - . ESC , , - , , -. ESC , , - (Carseek webpage: http://www.carseek.com/articles/electronic-stability-control.html#).
-
25
- , . , 2008 ., 20% and 50% .
, , , -, . - - , (Elvik and Vaa 2004). (Radin, Mackay, and Hills 1996; Yuan 2000).
, , , - , , - - , . , 11%, 18% (Elvik and Vaa 2004). , -, , 9% (Dinh-Zarr and others 2001). , - , , - 15%, 11%, - - 6,5% (Broughton and others 2000). - .
3. ,
, - , , - (ETSC 2003a). , - (Poli de Figueiredo and others, 2001), -
, - , . - - - - (OECD and ITF 2008). , , , - , - - 5 ; - , - . , , , 625 2002 . 419 2007 . (Linderberger 2009).
- - (OECD and ITF 2008). - , , , - - , , , , (DETR) - !.
, - , , - , - , . , - (Peden and others 2004). 4065% (Peden and others 2004), - 814% (Cummings and others 2002). - , 30- , - (ETSC
-
26
1996; Ashton, Mackay, and Camm 1983). () - , - - , , ( ), - (Dinh-Zarr and others 2001). - -, 37 95%, 35- - . - - 99% , 93% 43% - . , , , - .
( - ). , , , -. , , 56 30% (Ichikawa, Chadbunchachai and Marui 2003; Supramaniam, Belle, and Sung 1984). - -, 26%, - 72% (Liu and others 2004). . -, 1999 ., , , , - 69% (Thompson, Rivara, and Thompson 2000). , - (
- ) , - 70%, 5480% (WHO 2009).
, - , . - , , - , - , , - (Elvik and Vaa 2004).
- , -, - ( ) (Jamison and others 2006). - , , -- (OECD and ITF 2008). (, - ), - - 34%, - (, ). 50 (/), . , - 30 50 /, - . 10 / - 6%, 14 / 21% (Racioppi and others 2004). , - 30% , -
-
27
, ( ), , : (a) - - -; (b) (70 / - 30 / ); - - 20 / - 60 ; (c) , - , ; (d) - (DETR 2000).
- . -: - . , 0,06 /, , , , 0,10 /, 6 (Levine 2003). , .
- - . - 0,05 /. - 0,05 / , - 540% (ETSC 1996, 2003a). , - - - , , , - - (Peden
and others 2004). - (Henstridge, Homel and Mackay 1997). , - , (OECD and ITF 2008). , - . , , , - , : - , , , - . - , , , , , 64% (Wallwork, Winik and Massey 2009).
, - , - - -. (Casswell and Thamarangsi 2009), , - , - . , , , , - . , - , .
3, - , - , . ,
-
28
, , - , - - .
, - - , , - , -, ( - -), , , - - - . , - , 45% -, -, (), , - , , , - (Reed 2008). , , - - , - , , , - , . - (Box 2009) - - , - ( ). - , - -
(, ). .
. - ; .
. - ; - ; , , ; .
. , , -; ; ; - (, ).
. - ; - .. .
. ; ; - .
. , - .
. - ; - .
. . . -, .
. -; , - ; .
. (, - , ).
. , - , .: Casswell and Thamarangsi (2009).
3.
-
29
- :
2,8 , - .
1,3 , .
(, ) - 1,4 - , .
, - -, -. (. ): - .
- :
5,9 , - .
1,3 , .
- 6,7 , - .
- - 23,2 , ( - 8% ,
2008 . , ). , - , 5 6- . , - , .
, , . -, , , , , . , 2003 . 300 - - , - , (Linderberger 2009).
, , , , - , , - - , - . - . - - (Goull and others 2008), . , , , , - . , , .
4.
, . , - ,
-
30
, 1% - 1,41,8% (Litman 2000; Edlin 2002). , - - . : - ; ; ; ( - ). - - . , - , , , , - , , , .
5. ,
7 - , , . , - - , - , - . - , : ; ; - ; ; - , ; , (Bekefi 2006). - , , - , ,
7. ?
, , .
, .
. .
( , )
, , , ; ; .
.
( , ), .
, .
, .
.
, .
: Adapted from Bekefi (2006).
-
31
, -, (Kusek, Wilson, and Thomas 2009) , , - , - .
, , - ? , 90% , - , ( ), , , - -, , . , , . , - - : ; - , - ; - ; ( - ).
6.
, , . - () - - - , .
- - . , - , - , - - .
CHOICE - , - - , (Chisholm and Naci 2008). ( - , - )9. - (I$), , , - - . , -- , : - - , ; - ; ; - -; 15 . 9
, - , , . , ( ), , , , , - , - , .
-
32
, , , , - - (, , -, , ), , - ( , - , . , - -10, - ( 31 38% -- ), (43% 24%, ). , - ( 21 22%) ( 16 21%): 97 1 248 - 1 ( - - -, -).
- , ( ), - , - -- (I$ 10 395 ); - (I$ 12 691 ). - - - (I$ 5 825 ). - 5. 10
(-) -: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . - (-) : , , , , , , , .
, , , - - , - . , , , - - , - . , , - , .
8.
(
1 )
1,5
14,0
2,5
10,4
19,3
10,3
3,5
-
9,7
( )
4,4
10,7
36,0
6,0
32,0
3,0
29,0
1,0
: ETSC (2003b); SWOV (2001); U.S. National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (2000).
-
33
-. , , , 8, , 2, - (ETSC 2003, SWOV 2001, and U.S. National Center for Injury Prevention and Control 2000). , , , - , 36 . - . , -
(Hendrie and others 2004).
7 . ?
- , - , , - . , -
5. - (2005 .)
: .
- ( ): , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .
- ( ): , , , , , , , .
: Chisholm and Naci (2008).
#
$
-
34
-, 4, , - , - (OECD/ITF 2006, 2008).
8. :
5 , , - , - , - . , -, , - - , . - , - - , - - , - . - , -, .
: . - , , .
. - , , .
. , , -, , - , , . , -, , .
. , - ; - , .
. - , . , .
: (ECORYS 2006):
() . - , - , . , (, , , , ).
. , , , : (a) (, - ); (b) , pay-as-you-drive ( - ) pay-as-you-speed ( ); (c) - , , ; (d) - .
. - - - , , , : , .
: OECD (2002) Aeron-Thomas and others (2002) , Peden and others (2004) ECORYS (2006).
4.
-
35
. 1990- , , - . 1990- 4,3 100 ( , ). , - , : (i) , , ; (ii) - , ; (iii) , . , , . - (i) , , ; (ii) , , ; (iii) - , .
4,6 100 . - : (i) - ; (ii) , ; (iii) , - . : (i) , , , ( ), - ( ), (- , ); (ii) ; (iii) , , , - , - ( ).
. , - - . , , -. , , - , , , . - , 1970- , , , - , , - - , ( 1990 .), , , 2001 ., - ( 50 / 40 / ), , . .
5.
( )
-
36
. 1990 ., - . 2004 . (1 315 - ) (222 ) . , (), , - , - -, . , , , , (). - . , - (Motor Vehicle Account) 583 - , , . , - , - .
. 1991 2005 . , 50%: 11 300 5 361. (a) (, , , ); (b) , , - , , - , .
. 19942005 . 45%, (40%), 2010 . : (a) - ; (b) ; (c) ; (d) , . , 600 -; , , - - , , 40%. 10 2000 . 39 2005 .
. - 14 . 2006 . 17 320 , 90% - 14 .
. 40% , , (). , 21 , . 2005 . , - , 0,08. 43 384 2007 . 39 397 2008 .
: OECD/ITF (2008); OECD/ECMT (2006); Breen, Howard, and Bliss (2008); Halsey (2009).
5. ()
-
37
9. ,
1, . , , - , - - , , , - - , , .
, - - -; -, - , . - - , .
-, - -. , , - , . - -. ( 6). , (. 7).
, - -, -, , , , - - , - (WHO 2009a). - -
- 20062012 , - 15% 1520% 2010 . - - () , - , , , , -.
- . , - : 10 ; , , ; - , (Parfitt 2009). 20072008 . - .
- -. 6 2009 . , - , - . ( -) , , - . , - , , , - .
6. ?
-
38
, (World Bank 2004). , , - - ( , -, ) .
, 2030 - - , . - - , . - - , , -. - - . , - , - - . -, , - - - , (Bliss and Breen, 2009).
2007 . , - -. , . , , - .
2008 . - , , , - .
13 2009 . . - - , , , . , -. , , , .
, - . , - , , - : , - 90% , - .
- , - , -, . - - , , , -, . .
: Camos-Daurella and Silcock (2009).
7.
-
39
-
40
4
-
41
, - (WHO-EURO, 2008b), - , - . - .
, - -- , : () ; (b) -, () , , (d) ; () . - - .
1.
- - - () , , () ; (b) ; ()
; (d) , - (Sethi, 2007; -, 2005; Krug, Sharma Lozano 2000). , , : - . - , -, - . , - ; ; -, - , , - , - , -, . - - , , -, - . - , (Racioppi ., 2004).
, , , , , .
, 10:34
IV. -
-
42
, , - , -, - .
. , , , - - .
. - , , - .
- . - , - (, -, , , -). - , , : 70% (Rose, 1992). -, , -, , .
2.
- - , - (WHO, 2008c). , - , , , . , -
, , - -, .
- , - , , , , . , () - -, , , 70 . , , - . , - , - - . , , - , - (, ), - - , , , , - - .
3.
, , -, , - -
-
43
(Peden ., 2004). () - ( ) - .
- 18 , - , . () , - , , - - (Moore, 1999). : -, - ( , , ), - , - , , , - .
- (Kobusingye ., 2006):
, - . : () - , -, - (b) , - - . - - - . . - :
- .
- . 50 000 (McSwain, 1991) , , . () - 10 100 000 -. () - 30 (Mock ., 1998).
- -, , .
- .
. - , - . , , , . -. , .
- . - - . - (, , - ) . - ,
-
44
, . , 11.
. . , - ( ), , -, , -, . - , - , , , - . , , - . - - .
. . - .
. - , . , - . - . . , - . -
11 , - , - . , - .
.
. - - - - , - . - , .
4.
- - . - , -. , - .
- - -. , , -, 12, - , . , , - - . , 13.
12 - () , - . .
13 - ( +21o C 40 o C ).
-
45
2004 . 172 81 . , 1% - , 37% ; 44% 55% - . , 94% , , , 43% , , - 14.
- - . 53 ( ) 26 .
- , , , , (The Lancet, 2007). - (, 2007a). - . , , - -, - (Marquez, 2008).
- - , , .
14 , - , , , - , . - , , , (Carolan and Garca, 2005).
5.
- . , , - - . - - , , - , -, , (Peden ., 2004). - . - , , .
6.
- , - . , , 2005 . 31 - (. 1980 .) (Haider, 2007). -: ( -) -. . - . - - .
, - - . - , (-
-
46
) ( ). , .
(SAMU). - 60- - . SAMU . - - (H-MICUs) ( 8).
(SAMU) , - ( ) . , - . ( ), ( -, , , ..) ( - ) . - . . .
- -. - SAMU, , . - , , - (H-MICU). - -, , - . , , . -, , . - .
: SAMU.
8.
-
47
-
48
5
-
49
- . 5060- . - - , , , () , -. -
. - , , - , , (Peden ., 2004, OECD/ITF, 2008; Bliss and Breen, 2009).
1.
-, .
9.
//
, , ,
,
, /
: (2006).
, . . , .
,
V.
-
50
-, , - . - , - 9. : , - , . : , . . , - , , -, , - , 8090- . 90- , - - .
-, , - . - - :
, - ;
- - - ;
- , - .
, - , : () - - ( , -
, ); (b) , - , - (, , , - ); (c) -- , - ( , , - ) (d) - (- , , -, , ). , - - - - .
: - - - () () (ITF) (OECD/ITF 2008). 9 , , - , - . .
2.
, . 2004 ., A/Res/58/289 - - () ( ) - .
-
51
(WHA 57.10, 22 2004 .) , - -, , , - - , . - . - - , ; , - ; - , ; - ; - . - , , , - , , - .
-- (Peden ., 2004) - . - , , - , .
A/62/L.43 - - , - 2009 ., - - .
3. - :
, - - , . , , , , - -. : , - .
2010 .: (EC, 2001), - 2001 ., - 50% 2010 . 2003 . - : - - 2010 .: - (EC, 2003). ( 2011 2020 .). 15 , - , , .
- , - . , - 16. -15 : http://ec.europa.eu/transport/
wcm/road_safety/erso/index-2.html.16 : http://www.erscharter.eu/.
-
52
1. - . , - - . - , , - .
2. - . , - . , - , -
3. , - . , , - . - , . - , - , . - - . - , .
4. - . , , - - - .
5. - . - , : - (, , ); (, , , ); ( - , -
, , - ); ( ); -- , ; ( ). - - , .
6. . - , , . , : ; - ; ; - , .
7. . - - , , - . , , - .
8. . -, , , , - . - , - , . .
9. . - . , - , , - , - , .
: (2008).
9. :
-
53
- .
A. - , - -. , 2008/96/EC 19 2008 . - (EC, 2008a). - , - . , - :
. - , - . - .
. , , - -. - .
. , , . - , - , . - , - / .
- , , .
, , - , 2010 . , , - , , -, , , . - -- , - , .
B. , , , - -, .
. - 2003/20/EC 2006 . , - (EC 2003a).
, . 2003/97/EC - 3,5 , - , 2007 . (EC 2003b). 2007/38/EC - , (EC 2007).
. - 2008/89/EC - - 2011 . , 2012 . (EC 2008b).
-
54
. 96/96/EC, - 1997 ., , - (EC 2008a). 2000/30/EC, 2000 ., - . , (EC 2000).
. - -, , . - , - , - - (EC 2009).
C. - : (i) - ; (ii) , - : (iii) (iv) - .
, - 2013 ., 110 - , , . , -, - , , - .
, ( , ) - , -
- , , - , (FHRI 2007).
D. . , , - , , . (WHO EURO, 2008c). - , - . - . - . , -, .
4.
- . - , - , - -. - , .
- . ,
-
55
( - ) 43 - 50% 2012 . 2000 . (ECMT, 2002). 2004 . (ECMT, 2004). 2006 . -, , , , , , , (OECD ECMT, 2006, ITF, 2008). , , , , - - .
5.
(NCAPs) - , - (). , - . - . - 1978 ., 1992 ., EuroNCAP 1996 .
(iRAP 2008) , - - . - (AusRAP), (EuroRAP) (USRAP). - iRAP , --, 73 000 7 . . - iRAP: (a) , (, , -, ); (b) - - , : , -
(, , , , ); (c) , -, ; (d) ; (e) - , - ; (f) - ; (g) (iRAP, 2008).
- . - , , 2009 ., - - -. , . - , - , , - , - . -, : () - , ; (b) ; () - , - ; (d) - , - .
6. , ( )
- -
-
56
- . , - , , , -, -. , , : () -- - ; (b) , - () , , - .
- - (UNRSC) - A/Res/58/289 ( , 2004). UNRSC , -, , - , , (). UNRSC, , , , - , , . - - , , , . - . - .
2006 . - - -- , ,
.
2009 . , , :
-, - 2020 . 50% ( 1,9 1 ). , - . 2020 . 5 50 .
- 300 . - - .
- - 2020 . .
, , , 10% - - - - , .
- - .
, - , .
-
57
( -) - , . - 1953 ., 43 : , , . , - : , , -, , , . - . - - . 2004 . - (ITF, 2008).
- ( ), 1947 ., - . 56 , - , - , , . - , , - .
, - . , - , - - - .
- () , , - .
- - , - . 1999 . - - , 20 .
-, , , -, - . 2001 . - (), 300 . - - .
- - , - - . , , - - .
7.
- . . - - , -, - , - (Peden ., 2004).
-
58
. 60- - , , - , - . - - . , - , - , - . , , , , - .
- ; . , - - , , - . 60- - (SRSO) 70- (NHTSA). NHTSA , - . - , - . 1993 .
- - , , - - (Breen, Howard Bliss, 2008). 2004 . - - . - - (Bliss Breen, 2009).
- - - , , , , , -. , . , , -. , - , - . - , . - , - - , - (Observatoire National Interministeriel de Securit Routire, 2004).
-
59
, - - - . - , - ( TRRL Ltd), - . - , . -, - , - - , - .
- . -, -, , - . 1971 ., 18%; 1975 . 26% (Heiman, 1988). -, -.
, -. , - . - . - - , .
, -, , - , - . - . - , . - .
-, - -, , . - , : - (MADD). 1980 . - - - , , -, - (MADD, 2009). -, MADD - () 0,10 / 0,08 /, - 2000 . . - 10%: 13 041 2007 . 11 773 2008 . (NHTSA, 2008). , 80- MADD - - . , - , - .
-
60
6
-
61
, - () -, - , . - , , - .
1.
- .
, -- - , , . 2000 . - - , - , - .
- - -
, , , . , .
,
VI. ,
-
62
. - , - : - , , . , , , - , .
2004 . - - , , - , (Peden . 2004). , . - -, , - - .
2.
- 2006 . - , , - , - - . - . : (), - , ( ) - ( ) - -. 20062009 ( 2005 2009 .) - 7 . .
2009 . - - . - - (RoadPol).
3.
() . , , - , - -, - - . 2006 2006 . -, , , , , . , - iRAP. - . 2006 . - (ECMT, WHO EURO, World Bank, and OECD, 2006).
4. , 2004 .
(Bliss and Breen, 2009) - , , - -. - (Bliss, 2004), , -
-
63
, . - , , - , - , , , , - - , , - .
5. ,
A.
- . , (i) , - , - ; (ii) - ; (iii) , - , - , ; (iv) , , -, , - (v) , . , - , , - , , , - , - . - 10.
B. ,
, , , - , . , , , , -. , - , .
, 30 . , 2004 2008 . - - . , - , - , - . , - -: (i) - , ; (ii) , - - (iii) . 2009 . - 7 . - - .
-
64
. - 2007 . - , . , 16 , 2008 . - , , , - 2006 . -. : () - , - , , -; (b) , - ; () , , , , - ; (d) , , -- () .
-. - 1,6 . . - , - - , . , , - , - 2009 . 50 000 . , .
- 2. - .
- . 2008 . 2007 . -. -, , 2,6 . , - -. , , , , . , -, , - .
, 2,5 . , - . - - . - , , -, , , . -, .
- . () -, ; - , ; (b) - , - .
10. ,
( )
-
65
- - . - , 2,13 . , -, , . - - ( , , ). - , -, . .
2009 . - , : -- . - - , , , - - -, - 30% .
. - .
. , , - . , , . - , .
. , 2009 . - , - , 2007 . , - (iRAP) 2008 . - - 29 2009, 80- . acquis communautaire (- ). 2009 . , - -, , , . : () - - ; (b) - ; () - , ; (d) - () .
. , . - , 110 - . - , - .. , .
: - .
10. , ()
-
66
- - (), - - 3031 2007 ., , , , - (- , 2007). - -, , , , , , -, , , -, , , , , , - . - , - , , .
C. :
- (). , - , , , , , , - - (Cox, 2009).
, . - - -, , - .
, - , - . .
, - . , 2005 ., 35 . - . - , - - - ( 11). - .
D. , , , , , (World Bank, 2008b, 2009b, Bliss Breen, 2009).
- - - , , - , - , . - (i) (ii) /. , , - ; , -
-
67
, 83,6 , 52,8 . , , . 1994 2005 . 4907 11534 . - , .
- , , , , . , , , - . , - , Bloomberg Philanthropies, , - .
- , , - (World Bank, 2005b).
- (7,8 . ), - () - (b) - . - - (20,9 . ), -, , , . , - , - - (, ) . (6,2 . ), , , - .
: (2009b).
11. ,
, , . , - - - :
-. - , - , - - . -, . , , - -, , -. . - - , - - .
- - . - , - , , . -
-
68
(2030). - -, , - . - . . - - .
. - , - , - , -. - . - - . - . , - , , - , - - , - , - . , , , . - , -
- .
. - : , , -, . - . , - , - . - - - - - . .
- . 60% . - , . , , - , . - - , (WHO, 2009a).
- , . , - - . - .
-
69
-
70
7
-
71
, - - - . - - , . , - , - .
1. 2004 .: ?
(Peden ., 2004) - , , - :
, - ;
, - , - , ;
, , . . , . , , .
, ,
VII.
-
72
- ;
;
- , -, ;
.
- - , -, . , , -, - (Bliss and Breen, 2009).
. - - - : - , . - . .
2.
A. ,
, - , - -
, - . - - , . , 2004 . , - . - , - . -, , -. , - . - , , , , - , - , - . , - - , - . , , , - , .
. -, - , . - . :
-
73
- . - (i) - ; (ii) -, , (iii) - (iv) - - . - - -. , - - ;
- , - , - - . . -. - , - (, ), - . - . .
-. , -. -
- . - . - . - - .
-, - - , . - , , (, ). - -. , - - , TEACH-VIP (WHO, 2007) - , .
B.
. . , - . , -, , -. 20% . - , 30
-
74
( , 24 7 , ; -). , - , . 50%. .
. - . , . - - , , , . - , . - . - . , - , - , . - . , 2008 ., , - (- , , ), . : , - - . ,
- - .
- - . (Chisholm and Naci, 2008), , - -, . - .
C. ,
. , - , , -, , , , , , .
. - - - . , , - (Bliss and Breen, 2009). : , / - , , , - .
-
75
- -, , - . . , . . - - . (i) - , , ; (ii) - - , - . - , , , - . . - --, .
3.
- , (Bliss and Breen, 2009). - . - , , . - - , ,
, -. , , - , . - - , - . , , , . - .
- , , , , , , - -, .
A.
, - .
. , , - . - , - . . , , -,
-
76
. , . , . , - , , . , - - . - / -.
B. ,
60 /. - . . , - , .
. 50 / 30 / . , -, (, -). -. - (-, ), . - .
C.
- , , - . - - -, , .
. - - . 0,05 / 0,02 /. . - , - - , . -, - . - - . - . - . - -- , - . , , - , , - , - ,
-
77
- , - , - , , , - .
D.
, . - , - . , . - , .
. - - , . - . . - - . - -. , . , .
E. - - . -
. - ( - , , , ).
. - . - ; - , ; - / -/ , - ; - - (, , -, ). - , , -. .
F.
- . - - . , , - , . - ,
-
78
50% -, 15% 35% . , - .
. , , . - , - . - , , , - . - , (- , -, ) - .
G.
- . - , . - / - , - . , , (, ,
, -) 14% - 15% (Lovegrove and Litman, 2008).
. - - -, -. - , , , - .
4.
VII, - . - . - - .
. - - , . , - , - . - -. - .
-
79
-
80
8
-
81
1. :
, - , - -, , (Saghir, 2009):
, - .
- , () -, , - ; (b) , : -, , -, , ( ) ; , , - ; () -, , , - , .
? ? ? ? , , , , ,
, , 1964 .
, 21
, ,
VIII. :
-
82
- , - .
- -.
2.
- , - 2010 2016 . -, , , . , , , , , , - , - .
, - , - , , - , , , , - , , , , , - , - - . - (Bliss and Breen, 2009) - :
A. . - - -
- . , - .
B. . - . , - - , , . - , - , , , , , . , , - , , -, , .
C. . , - - , - . - -, : - , . - . . - - - .
-
83
D. . - . -, , - - , - . - - , .
- - , , - , - -- - .
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