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Авиакомпании, аэропорты, аэродромы Лектор: Комаристый Евгений Николаевич
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Авиакомпании, аэропорты, аэродромы

Feb 22, 2016

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Авиакомпании, аэропорты, аэродромы. Лектор: Комаристый Евгений Николаевич. О себе. В 1999 году закончил экономический факультет НГУ В 2001 там же магистратуру В 2004 там же аспирантуру В июле 2004 защитил кандидатскую диссертацию В 2009 получил степень МВА в МГУ - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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, , : 1999 2001 2004 2004 2009 2001 2005 2005 / 2000 - S7 ( ) , .. 34 16 - :.. .. - B. Vasigh, T. Tacker, K. Fleming Introduction to air transport economics: from theory to applications

komaristiy.ru/stud

: If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and open an airline. Soon enough you will be a millionaire.

Sir Richard Branson,Founder,Virgin Atlantic Airways

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= + + ? , . .. 1% 2%. 2% 4% .. . ? , , . , ( ) . : ? ? ? ? : : : :

T7 50055P6 210510R6 0002131N5 0004172Q4 500678O4 00056134W3 40082216

D = f(P, P, Y, H)

D (demand)P (price)P - Y (yield)H (, .) D = Q aPD P Q

P = 6 565 17DD = (6 565 P)/17 ?6000D = (6 565 6000)/17 = 33D = (6 565 P)/17331986000 x 33 = 198 .600 ?6000D = (6 565 4000)/17 = 150D = (6 565 P)/17331984000 x 150 = 600 .4000150536600 ?6000D = (6 565 2000)/17 = 268D = (6 565 P)/17331982000 x 268 = 536 .40001502000268 ?6 000331985 500623415 000924604 5001215454 0001506003 5001806303 0002096272 5002395982 0002685361 5002974461 000327327500356178 ? = P DD = f(P) = (6 565 P)/17 = P f(P) = P x (6 565 P)/17 = 386P P2/17386 2P/17 = 0P = (386 x 17)/2 = 3 281 . = 386P P2/17 = 633 . . ? ? ? ? :) 4000 150 - ,

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FCVCTC , . , . , , . (7-10 ) . (, ..)

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*Fuel Cost per ASMMaintenance osts per ASMCrew Costs per ASMOther Operating Costs per ASMNon Operating Costs per ASM* Introduction to air transport economics

S7 ( , ) ( , .) ( , / ) ( , , , / ) ? ( ) ( ) (break-even), ( ), , . ?QB.. = QB.. = SB.E. = FC/(1-V/P)V ( )P (): (, .) - $30,28 . - $180 - $211 : $30,28/(1-180/211) = $206 . (976 . .): (, , , ) - $17 350 - $19 - $211 : $17 350/(1-19/211) = $19 967 (90 ., 70% 319 128 ) 100 .98 .

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, , (). (degree of operating leverage DOL). , % (), %DOL = DOL = Q(P V)Q(P V) FCDOL = S VCS VC FCV ( )VC Q P ()S (), , , (), .DOL Q. = Q(P-V)Q(P-V)-FC QQ-QB.E.= DOL 120 = 120120-90= 4DOL 100 = 100100-90= 10

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? () = ? 50 , 10 . 80%, 50%. 1 ? 3 ?5 ? 10 ? ? : 1 51 , 11 . 80%*50/51 = 78,4% 10 1,6% 11- 78,4% - 10*1,6% = 62,4% . ! : 2 52 , 12 . 78,4%*51/52 = 76,9% 11 1,5% 76,9% - 11*1,5% = 60,4% . ! : 2 (2) 52 , 12 . 80%*50/52 = 76,9% 76,9% - 12*(80%*(50/51-51/52))/2 = 60,4% . ! : N 80%*50/(50+N) N : , .80%*50/(50+N) (10+N)*80%*50(50+N-1)(50+N-1)(50+N)/N

? 91 97. 2: + - * ** , * ** 2: :D = 18 000 2P

250 . . 600 . . 100 . 500 . 2: max -100%-50%100%-50%0%90%0%20%80%20%50%60%50%100%40%100%200%20%200%0% 2: 100 . . 1/10 . 80%, 100 . 8%, .. 88%. 200 . 16%, .. 96%. 2: = 0,4* + 0,6* = *2 = 2 , . . : 1

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: 1 ? 500 500 ( Boeing 747-400) 100 ( Boeing 737-500)? VC FC MOWAERLEDOVBBAXTOF FCVCTCVCTC AFC AFCAVC AFCAVCATC... AFCAVCATCMC , (, ..)

. MC (Marginal Costs )MR (Marginal Revenue )MC = + .MR = . MRMR MCMRMR=MC . , , . . ( ) ( ) .98 MCindividualMCsystemMR ? : Q = 18 000 2P : 18 000 2P = 0P = 18 000 / 2 = 9 000P = P = 4 500Q = 18 000 2*4 500 = 9000100

?101 - - 102 () : : MCMRAC : MCMRAC : (, -, , ..)MCMRAC ? 70%80%90-95% : ? ? : ? , . , . - : ( )MCMRAC ( )MCMRACMCAC ( )MCMRACMCACMCAC ( -) : : : 1 2MR1MR2MC: () : , MC=0 , : 1 2MR1MR2: 1 2MR1MR2 1MR1 2MR2: 1,2MR1,2 1/3Q () : . ( , , ) - - : : , (no-show, go-show), , : , .. , .. - , : , (no-show, go-show), : ( , , , .) ( )() YMQW, . . , . . 2015105 7 14 21 150%100%75%50%35 , , : , (no-show, go-show), , 300 Y=50M=150W=100 Y=300M=150W=100 Y=300M=250W=100 100% : , (no-show, go-show), EMSR- (Expected Marginal Seat Revenue) , n :EMSRi = fiP(Si) fi - i- ( )P(Si) - , i- S (overbooking) 100%(no-show,go-show)- (overbooking) : (no-show, go-show) (-) : : ? ? : : : () : , , , . . , . - .

15%7%12% 110070.175438596517007. . 10 080800030,00030,0001788632,84328,43131,2752779235,38526,92332,3083759817,64225,47233,1134741,0379,63024,07433,7045731,09111,36422,72734,0916711,14312,85721,42934,2867701,19314,12320,17534,2988691,24115,17218,96634,1389681,28816,01717,79733,81410671,33316,66716,66733,33311661,37717,13115,57432,70512651,41917,41914,51631,93513631,46017,54013,49231,03214631,50017,50012,50030,00015621,53817,30811,53828,84616611,57616,97010,60627,57617601,61216,4939,70126,19418591,64715,8828,82424,70619581,68115,1457,97123,11620571,71414,2867,14321,429

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