PAGE 17
[email protected] - - : - - - - - - . : . : . : - - 15- 24 - . : - 60 .
. ( 1421).
280401 736 4419 313 28998 1421 ( 1421). :1- :
(1) . (2) .
(3) . (4) .
(5) . (6) .
(7) .
126180 280401 1421 45% .
:
(1) 1421
1- .2- .3- .4- .82017
35330
7571
126265%
28%
6%
1%
126180100%
: 1421.
63% 27% .
2- 91691 280401 1421 32.7% . 1421 .
( 2 ) 1421
1- .2- .3- .4- .61688168247851532867.3%18.3%8.6%5.8%
91691100%
: 1421.
3- - . 15422 280401 1421 , 5.5% . ( , 1421 ).
4- .(Sagberg, F., 1999) 5- - . (Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A., 1988; Evans, L., 1987).6- 523 0.19% .
(Maycock, G., 1997; Taoka, 1998).7- . (Chen, L., Baker, S. P., Braver, E. R., & Li, G, 2000; .Murray, A, 1998)8- 202 0.07% . (Sivak, M., Soler, J., & Trankle, U. 1989; Venezian, E., 1980) 1421 . (3 ) 1421
1- .2- .3- . 4- .5- .6- .12618091691
154223476202
4343045%
32.7%5.5%1.2%0.07%
15.5%
280401100%
: : 1421 . , 1421.
: (1) . .(2) . (3) (- ) .
(1) 1412 1421 1412 .(2) The Census Formula . . (3) Life Year Calendar Year .
. :(1) ( ) . .
(2) . (3) . (4) .
:(1) : . 15-24 .* 60 . (25-59 ) . ( ). . . ( + ) . ( + ) . .
(2) Life Year Calendar Year .
:
: .
(1) ( ).
(2) ( ) .: .
(1) . 1412 1421.(2) . .(3) . :
-14. 15-29. 30-44 . 45-59 . 60 (4) . :
.
.(5) . . : : . : : . : . .. :
:
. .
( 4 ) 1405-1421 (
1405
1412
1413
1414
1415
1416
1417
1418
1419
1420
142129052
40076
85277
125324
122140
167265
135763
153727
264326
267772
280401100.0
138.1
293.5
431.4
420.4
575.7
467.3
529.1
909.8
921.7
965.222630
27385
34880
32133
31033
26115
25072
28144
31059
32361
28998100.0
121.0
154.1
142.1
137.1
115.4
110.8
124.4
137.2
143.0
124.13277
3495
3719
4077
3789
3123
3131
3474
4290
4848
4419100.0
106.7
113.7
124.4
115.6
95.3
95.5
106.0
130.9
147.9
134.8
: 1421.
1421 1405 . 31% 1405 . 17% 1405 . :
( 5 )
( ) 1421
%
%%
8431330.07485116.7372016.29
8952031.93950132.76118426.79
7000.2512114.182836.40
6438122.96345111.9058113.15
82662.9514805.102034.59
30601.098532.941573.55
36861.313881.341242.81
124694.4517606.0747610.77
41741.4911523.971292.92
24120.869593.31821.86
42481.518923.081282.90
14560.5214865.122796.31
17160.6110143.50731.65
280401100.0028998100.004419100.00
: 1421. : ( 6 )
1421
% %
6823729.841607631.1084313
7532732.941419327.4689520
2400.104600.89700
5344423.371093721.1664381
73633.229031.758266
19640.8610962.123060
29771.307091.373686
75893.3248809.4412469
36821.614920.954174
20860.913260.632412
38521.683960.664248
7860.346701.301456
11620.515541.071716
228709100.0051692100.00280401
: 1421.
:
1412 1421.
( 7 )
:
( ).: . (1390-1420).: . : .* 15-24 .** 60 . (25-59 ). ( ). .
141240076157454811259638157454.83464006125963824481.12661441337597730520000
141385277169306251388311172692.43470778143910322640.81728241720738743521620
1414125324173767681442272180718.43649121156390922155.39768011867048689721740
1415122140178346681533781183697.14012800178346721718.15759201588219071822780
14161672651830463315660532013514210066192198721446.48787231414688127923080
141713576318786983167204219726.334216551206656821431.75809871613018481923080
1418153727192820441773948206317.94492716214223521203.728366231415015201123000
1419264326197901501761323209775.64551734221649720688.328435133810216965122660
1420272364203116451816470219365.84698084228083920143.038660735695717836422520
14212804012084688218643452230334821985234094419632.778817937102118623822340
. ( + ). ( + ). . SPSS : ( 8 )
( 8 ) : (R square) 0.96 ( ) 96%. ( 9 )
( 9) : f 13356.177 5% . (10) (
(10) :** = 0.07556 10% 0.8% 95%. 15-24 = 2.166 10% 21.6% 95%. . 60 = -0.644 10% 6.44% 95%. . (25-59 ) = 0.354 10% 3.54% 95%. = -21.502 10% 215.02% 95%. . = 6.799 10% 67.99% 95%. . = 1.346 10% 13.46% 95%. = 65.064 10% 650.64% 95%. . :
. ( 11)
(11) .
:
The Census Formula . . . (12) 1416-1421
141614171418141914201421
0-14789661980614948231505816343777570178398700
15-29459812448864944733741474765749316675488000
30-44368838437536394162993479911252383744439000
45-5910195689825591166564125271611740131630300
60110193811027979872418272281210574890882
183046331878698319282044197901502031164520846882
: ( ).: . (1390-1420).: . (13) 1421
0-1415-2930-4445-59 60
6478576540544454824728998
479137060257213964419
1421.
: Life Year ( ) . The Census Formula .
: - 14
EMBED Equation.3
: (1) - 14 :
(2) . - 14 :
.... : ( 14)
0-14403611130.0001611.18679E-0540364352403613520.000161.18678E-05
15-29243426210.0002375.62799E-0524345504243433060.0002375.62783E-05
30-44220178100.0001842.73415E-0522019837220181110.0001842.73411E-05
45-5959007860.0007559.69362E-05590301359010720.0007559.69315E-05
60 51242500.0016090.00027243512837451249480.0016080.000272393
0.0029460.0004648560.0029440.000464812
0.000890.0000930.000890.000093
:1- (1): ( )2- - 2.946 0.89 . 60 45- 59 . - 14 . 3- - 0.464 0.093 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . (2): ( )
1- - 2.944 0.89 . 60 45-59 - 14 . 2- - 0.464 0.093 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . Life Year (t) : (1) .
t :
t 0.005 " Life Year " 95%. (2) . t :
t 0.005 " Life Year " 95%. : Calendar Year ( ) . The Census Formula .
: - 14
: (1)
- 14 :
(2) - 14 :
.... : (15)
0-14324488160.00021.47617E-0532452055324490550.000199621.47616E-05
15-29231454010.0002495.9191E-0523148283231460860.000249055.91893E-05
30-44139243270.0002914.32337E-0513926354139246280.00029114.32328E-05
45-5953070710.0008390.000107781530929853073570.000838910.000107775
6026148890.0031540.000533866261901326155870.00314890.000533723
0.0047330.0007588330.004727570.000758682
0.000950.000150.00950.0015
: (1): ( )
1- - 4.733 0.95 . 60 45- 59 - 14 . 2- - 0.76 0.15 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . (2): ( )
1- - 4.73 0.95 . 60 45-59 - 14 . 2- - 0.76 0.15 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . Calendar Year (t) :
(1) .
t :
t 0.005 " Calendar Year " 95%. (2) .
t :
t 0.005 " Calendar Year " 95%.
: 1- .2- 1421 1405 . 31% 1405 . 17% 1405 .3- : . . . . . . . . 4- .5- ( ) : . 15-24 . 60 . (25-59 ). . . ( + ). . :
6- (R square) 0.96 ( ) 96%.7- f 13379.411 5% .8- = 0.07556 10% 0.8% 95%.9- 15-24 = 2.166 10% 21.6% 95%. 10- 60 = -0.644 10% 6.44% 95%. 11- (25-59 ) = 0.354 10% 3.54% 95%.12- = -21.502 10% 215.02% 95%.13- = 6.799 10% 67.99% 95%.14- = 1.346 10% 13.46% 95%.15- = 65.064 10% 650.64% 95%.16- .17- ( ) The Census Formula.18- : - 2.946 0.89 . 60 45- 59 - 14 . - 0.464 0.093 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . 19- : - 4.733 0.95 . 60 45- 59 - 14 . - 0.76 0.15 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . :
1- .2- .3- ...4- .5- .6- .7- .8- .9- .10- . 20% .11- .12- .13- .14- .15- . 16- . 17- ( ) . .
:
1) (1994). " " - .2) (1967). . : .3) . (1395 ). .: .4) (1411 ). " " : .5) (1964). . : .6) (1416 1996). " - " : - 9. 7) (1994). . : .8) (1994)." " - .9) ( ).: .10) (1390-1420).: . 1) Broughton, L., (1988). The Variation of Car Drivers Accident Risk with Age. Transport Research Laboratory Report RR135. TRL, Crow Thorne, UK.
2) Benjamin, B., and Pal lord J., (1980). The Analysis of Mortality and other Categorical Statistics. Heinemann, London.
3) Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A., (1986). Safety belt Law Experience in Four Foreign Countries Compared to the United States, Foundation for Traffic Safety Research, Falls Church, VA.
4) Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A., (1988). Injury reduction and belt use associated with occupant restraint laws. In: Graham, J.D. (Ed.), New Findings from Evaluation Research. Auburn House Publishing Co., Dover, MA, pp. 2449.
5) Chen, L., Baker, S. P., Braver, E. R., & Li, G, (2000). Carrying passengers as a risk factor for crashes fatal to 16- and 17-year-old drivers. Journal of the American Medical Association, 283, 15781582.
6) Carr, B.R., (1969). A statistical analysis of rural Ontario traffic accidents using induced exposure data. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 1, 343357.
7) Dewiest, D., Duff, D., Trebilcock, M., (1996). Automobile accidents. In: Dewees, Exploring the Domain of Accident Law. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 1594.
8) Delhomme, P. (1991). Comparing ones driving with others: Assessment of abilities and frequency of offenses. Evidence for a superior conformity of self-bias? Accident Analysis and Prevention, 23, 493 508.
9) Evans, L., (1987). Estimating fatality reductions from increased safety belt use. Risk Analysis 7, 4957.
10) Evans, L., (1991). Traffic Safety and the Driver. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York.
11) Fell, (1994). Safety update: Problem Definition and Counter measure. Summary: Fatigue. New South Wales Road Safety Bureau, RUS No. 5.
12) Gallo, J.J., Rebok, G.W., Lesikar, S.E., (1999). The driving habits of adults aged 60 years and older. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 47, 335341.
13) Hakamies-Blomqvist, L., (1994). Older Drivers in Finland: Traffic Safety and Behaviour. Report 40/1994 for Liikenneturva, the Central Organisation for Traffic Safety.
14) Hakamies-Blomqvist, L., (1998). Older drivers accident risk: conceptual and methodological issues. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 30, 293297.
15) Hakamies-Blomqvist, L., Johansson, K., Lundberg, C., (1996). Medical screening of older drivers as a traffic safety measure: a comparative FinnishSwedish evaluation study. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 44, 650653.
16) Hingson, R., Heeren, T., Levenson, S., Winter, M., (1998). Safety Belt Use in Massachusetts: Results of the 1998 Statewide Survey: A Report Prepared for the Governors Highway Safety Bureau, Boston University School of Public Health.
17) Hu, P.S., Trumble, D.A., Foley, D.J., Eberhard, J.W., Wallace, R.B., (1998). Crash risks of older drivers: a panel data analysis. Accident Analysis and Prevention 30, 569581.
18) Haddon Jr., W. H., Suchman, E. A., & Klein, D. (Eds.). (1964). Safety as a social value. Accident Research: Methods and Approaches 20,510.
19) Knipling, R.R., Wang, J.-S., (1995). Revised estimates of the US drowsy driver crash problem size based on general estimates system case reviews. Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 39th Annual Proceedings.
20) Laube, I., Seeger, R., Russi, E.W., Bloch, K.E., (1998). Accidents related to sleepiness: review of medical causes and prevention with special reference to Switzerland. Schweiz Medical Wochenschr. 128 (40), 14871499.
21) Lyznicki, J.M., Doege, T.C., Davis, R.M., Williams, M.A., (1998). Sleepiness, driving, and motor vehicle crashes Accident Analysis and Prevention. 279 (23), 19081913.
22) Maycock, G., (1996). The Safety of Older Car Drivers in the European Union. AA Foundation for Road Safety Research. Foundation for Road Safety Research, Basingstoke, England.
23) Maycock, G., (1997). Sleepiness and driving: the experience of UK car drivers. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 29 (4), 453462.
24) Murray, A, (1998). The home and school background of young drivers involved in traffic accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 30 (2), 169182.
25) Pack, A.I., Pack, A.M., Rodgman, E., Cucchiara, A., Dinges, D.F., Schwab, C.W., (1995). Characteristics of crashes attributed to the driver having fallen asleep. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 27 (6), 769775.
26) McCormick, I. A., Walkey, F. H., & Green, D. E. (1986). Comparative perceptions of driver ability a confirmation and expansion. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 18, 205 208.
27) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, (1984). Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: Amendment to Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard 208 Passenger Car Front Seat Occupant Protection , New York.28) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, (1994). Evaluation of Californias Safety Belt Law Change to Primary Enforcement , New York.29) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, (1996a). Presidential Initiative for Increasing Seat Belt Use Nationwide , New York.30) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, (1996b). Report to Congress: Benefits of Safety Belts and Motorcycle Helmets , New York.31) Rivara, F.P., Thompson, D.C., Cummings, P., (1999). Effectiveness of primary and secondary enforced safety belt laws. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 16 (1s), 3039.
32) Rabbitt, P., Carmichael, A., Jones, S., Holland, C., (1996). When and Why Older Drivers Give Up Driving. Foundation for Road Safety Research, Basingstoke, England.
33) Sagberg, F., (1999). Accident risk of car drivers during mobile telephone use. Accident Research: Methods and Approaches 22, 510.34) Summala, H., Mikkola, T., (1994). Fatal accidents among car and truck drivers: effects of fatigue, age, and alcohol consumption. Risk Analysis 36 (2), 315326.
35) Svenson, O., Fischhoff, B., & MacGregor, D. (1985). Perceived driving safety and seat belt usage. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 17, 119 133.
36) Stutts, J.C., Stewart, J.R., Martell, C., (1998). Cognitive test performance and crash risk in an older driver population. . Accident Analysis and Prevention. 30, 337346
37) Taoka, (1998). Asleep at the wheel: a review of research related to driver fatigue. Transp. Quarterly 52 (1), 8592.
38) Vollrath, M., Meilinger, T., & Kruger, H. (2002). How the presence of passengers influences the risk of a collision with another vehicle. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 34, 649654.
39) Wertheim, A.H., (1991). Highway hypnosis: A theoretical analysis. Vision in Vehicles, vol. III. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 467472.
40) Williams, A. F. (2001). Barriers and opportunities in reducing motor vehicle injuries. Injury Prevention, 7, 83 84.
41) Williams, A. F., Paek, N. N., & Lund, A. K. (1995). Factors that drivers say motivate safe driving practices. Journal of Safety Research, 26, 119 124.
42) Williams, G.W., Shor, R.E., (1970). An historical note on highway hypnosis. . Accident Analysis and Prevention. 2, 223225
43) Zlatoper, T.J., (1989). Models explaining motor vehicle death rates in the United States. Accident Analysis and Prevention 21, 125154.
* .
( 1405 =100
* .
** .
( 5% EMBED Equation.3 .
** ( ) EMBED Equation.3 ( + ) EMBED Equation.3 .
PAGE
_1148377046.unknown
_1160648627.unknown
_1160649132.unknown
_1160650503.unknown
_1160650107.unknown
_1149770809.unknown
_1150661174.unknown
_1160259518.unknown
_1149776084.unknown
_1149138498.unknown
_1149138544.unknown
_1148390464.unknown
_1148372464.unknown
_1148071900.unknown
_1148372216.unknown
_1148372235.unknown
_1148372372.unknown
_1148372410.unknown
_1148372299.unknown
_1148371360.unknown
_1148371389.unknown
_1148371422.unknown
_1148371321.unknown
_1147783705.unknown
_1147817232.unknown
_1147817313.unknown
_1147817339.unknown
_1147815097.unknown
_1147816024.unknown
_1147816761.unknown
_1147816886.unknown
_1147817161.unknown
_1147816852.unknown
_1147816712.unknown
_1147815614.unknown
_1147783846.unknown
_1147812683.unknown
_1147783742.unknown
_1147781451.unknown
_1147783408.unknown
_1147783494.unknown
_1147782948.unknown
_1127822679.unknown
_1147779890.unknown
_1147780088.unknown
_1147723876.unknown
_1147779707.unknown
_1147723834.unknown
_1127822645.unknown