© 2014 IBM Corporation Simone Bianco, IBM Almaden Research Center © 2014 IBM Corporation The Global Threat of Ebola.

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Simone Bianco, IBM Almaden Research Center

© 2014 IBM Corporation

The Global Threat of Ebola

© 2014 IBM Corporation

The global threat of Ebola

Ebola virus an RNA virus

There is no vaccine and no cure

Low transmission, high virulence

Transmission from contact with body fluids (blood, saliva, sweat, semen, etc.; <1m)

Increased transmission after death (2-5x)

A “behavioral” component

Long incubation period (2-21 days); high chance that will spread from traveling carriers; contact tracing

High mortality (~35% currently, >90% in previous outbreaks; ~17000 infected, >6000 deaths)

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Modeling an Ebola outbreak response: STEM

Outbreaks need prompt response

Mathematical modeling of alternative scenarios

Consider air and land travel

Use reliable denominator data

Integrate datasets (humidity, temperature, wind, etc.)

Make reliable predictions at both local and global level

Free and open source (IBM to Eclipse foundation, US AF-SGO)

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease: Ebola

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Global threat of the West Africa Ebola outbreak

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Extensions

Ongoing

Contact mapping (with US Naval Research Lab, IBM Kenya Lab, Gov't of Sierra Leone)

Behavioral/social components and their effect (with US Naval Research Lab and College of William and Mary)

Proposed

Introduce vaccine (different strategies)

Strategic deployment of resources

“What if” scenarios:- What if the infection can be transmitted before symptoms show?- What if the infection increases/decreases in transmission/virulence- What if the disease mutates and becomes resistant to drugs- ...

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates

Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Facilitating contact tracing: Citizen engagement

Education and citizen engagement based on analytics of transcribed voice calls and SMS messages sourced directly from citizens

Partnering with Open Government Initiative (OGI) in collaboration with researchers on the Africa’s Voices program at Cambridge University, Echo Mobile, and telephone companies and radio broadcasting stations in Sierra Leone.

Assess the effectiveness (understanding) of current public service announcements (PSAs) (as expressed in local language)

Identify possible barriers to target behavior (from the PSAs) and feedback to CDC, Govt, MSF, Red Cross, etc.

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Visualizing SMS/voice reporting (Freetown, SL)

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Preliminary impact (September 24-October 8) – Sierra Leone

Compared to the previous report (September 19-23):

Higher number of reported dead bodies (2-3 times increase in reporting)

150 sick people identified

350 dead bodies reported and picked up

50 suspected Ebola cases identified

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Global IBM Ebola initiatives

STEMhttps://www.eclipse.org/stem/

Citizen Engagement through SMS/Voice

Ebola OpenData Jam and repositoryhttp://eboladata.org/

Coordination Technology to Nigeria

Weekly Ebola Scientific community callhttps://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call

Africa Health Care Delivery System Data Set

Public Health Solution for Disease Surveillance and Management (w GBS Canada support

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Thank you!

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Additional Slides

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates

Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates

Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks

© 2014 IBM Corporation

Ebola community weekly call

https://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call