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© 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011
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© 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

Dec 28, 2015

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Page 1: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

South African Economic IndicatorsNovember 2011

Page 2: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Index

Economic Growth (GDP)3

Exchange Rate5

Input Prices

7

Inflation

13

Interest Rates

18

Employment

20

Household Debt22

Consumer Confidence24

Retail Sales

26

Market Overview

Page 3: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: GDP GrowthUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

Q1

/01

Q2

/01

Q3

/01

Q4

/01

Q1

/02

Q2

/02

Q3

/02

Q4

/02

Q1

/03

Q2

/03

Q3

/03

Q4

/03

Q1

/04

Q2

/04

Q3

/04

Q4

/04

Q1

/05

Q2

/05

Q3

/05

Q4

/05

Q1

/06

Q2

/06

Q3

/06

Q4

/06

Q1

/07

Q2

/07

Q3

/07

Q4

/07

Q1

/08

Q2

/08

Q3

/08

Q4

/08

Q1

/09

Q2

/09

Q3

/09

Q4

/09

Q1

/10

Q2

/10

Q3

/10

Q4

/10

Q1

/11

Q2

/11

Q3

/11

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2.9

%2

.1%

1.0

%3

.1% 4

.5% 5.4

%4

.3%

3.9

%2

.7%

2.2

%2

.5%

2.8

%6

.1%

6.3

% 7.2

%3

.6%

5.1

%5

.2%

5.1

%4

.5%

6.2

%6

.2%

4.8

% 6.0

%5

.5%

3.7

% 4.5

% 5.4

%1

.7%

4.9

%0

.2%

-1.8

%

-7.4%

-2.8

%0

.9%

3.1

%4

.8%

2.8

%2

.7%

4.5

%4

.5%

1.3

%1

.4%

2008/2009 Recession

Period of recovery

Double dip?

Boom periodEconomic Growth (GDP)

Page 4: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY

• GDP ticked up slightly from 1.3% in Q2 of 2011 to 1.4% in Q3 2011, coming in at lower than expected

• Growth forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward even further to 3.0%, and in some cases even lower

The persistent climate of stagflation currently being experienced in South Africa means the country is slipping closer and closer to a point where activity could border on a recession, leading many analysts to believe there is a good chance of a rate cut being announced as early as January 2012. While an interest rate cut would stimulate activity, it will not however represent a quick fix for the economy – demand in exports is coming down due to problems in the Euro zone (South Africa’s biggest trading partner), unemployment remains high as does inflation, all factors contributing towards a shaky outlook.

Economic Growth (GDP)

Page 5: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Exchange RateUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Average ZAR/USD Average ZAR/EURO Average ZAR/POUND

Euro officially launched

2008/2009 Recession &

election uncertainty

Rand fallout

Euro debt crisis

Exchange Rate

Page 6: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• The rand (along with other emerging market currencies) continues to weaken against all

majors, reaching its lowest level in two and a half years against the US$ in late November

• The rand has depreciated by about 20% against the dollar, the euro and the pound so far this year

• This has the dual effect of keeping exports cheaper, but at the same time pushing inflation higher

South Africans have been labeled as quite “schizophrenic” regarding their reaction to the rand. When it is strong, there are calls to weaken it in order to make exports cheaper, and when it is weak, we are dissatisfied because it puts pressure on inflation. Unfortunately, local policy makers have little control over the fate of the rand. It will wax and wane with the global environment. According to RMB, the trouble is not so much the level of the rand, but its volatility. In 2011 it fluctuated between R6,56/$1 and R8,58/$1, making international trade and long-term investment decisions more difficult to make, hurting business sentiment.

Exchange Rate

Page 7: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Oilseed Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: FNB

Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Sunflower Spot Soya Spot

c/kg

Prices drop due to larger than expected supplies in international markets

Prices rise due to cut in US supply forecast

Input Prices: Oilseed

Page 8: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 2: Cereal Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: FNB

Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Yellow Maize White Maize Wheat

R/ton

Prices of yellow maize & white maize increased

by ± 28% and 35% during 2011

Surplus of grains in international markets

knocks prices

Input Prices: Cereals (Maize, Wheat)

Page 9: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 3: Beef and Poultry Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: FNB

Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Frozen whole chicken Fresh whole chicken Contract beef Weaner calf

Chicken prices show stability, while beef is

more susceptible to infla-tionary pressures

Prices rise due to increase in prices at

producer level

Input Prices: Beef & Poultry

Page 10: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 4: Vegetable Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: FNB

Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Tomatoes Potatoes Onions Carrots Cabbage

Prices dip due to increase in volumes

Supplies decrease due to black frost in central and northern regions, pushing up

prices

Vegetable prices have historically been subject to

volatility

Input Prices: Vegetables

Page 11: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 5: Fuel Market Trends – Petrol, Diesel, ParaffinUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: FNB

01

/06

03

/06

05

/06

07

/06

09

/06

11

/06

01

/07

03

/07

05

/07

07

/07

09

/07

11

/07

01

/08

03

/08

05

/08

07

/08

09

/08

11

/08

01

/09

03

/09

05

/09

07

/09

09

/09

11

/09

01

/10

03

/10

05

/10

07

/10

09

/10

11

/10

01

/11

03

/11

05

/11

07

/11

09

/11

11

/11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Unleaded Petrol - Inland 95 Diesel (Sulphur) Reef Illuminating Paraffiin (Reef)

c/litre

Decline in oil reserves, Middle East tension & oil price speculation

Demand for energy drops due to

recession Unrest in African oil producing countries

Fuel price increase due to weak rand

Input Prices: Fuel

Page 12: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• Electricity prices continue to impact businesses and consumers

• Vegetable prices experienced a dip across the board, with the prices of tomatoes, potatoes, carrots and cabbage decreasing

• Maize prices saw a slight drop in November

According to the United Nations, food prices have doubled over the past five years indicating that the trend is an rising one. In the short-term, food inflation has mainly been attributed to the rise in the price of maize, and it is believed that the full effect of the maize price has not yet filtered down completely to influence meat and dairy prices due to production cycles.

Input Prices

Page 13: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: CPI, CPIX and Food InflationUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

Jan

06

Ma

r 0

6

Ma

y 0

6

Jul 0

6

Se

p 0

6

No

v 0

6

Jan

07

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Jul 1

1

Se

p 1

1

No

v 1

1

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

Food and non-alcoholic beverages CPI PPI Lower Target Upper Target

CHANGE OF BASKET WEIGHTINGFuel, electricity &

food price increases

2008/2009 Recession

Effects of lower

demand

Inflation

Page 14: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: CPI for Food, Personal Care, Alcoholic Beverages and Electricity and other FuelsUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Oct

-09

No

v-0

9

De

c-0

9

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-

10

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct

-10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct

-11

-4

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

Food Personal Care Alcoholic Beverages Electricity and other Fuels

Fuel and electricity price hikes push food prices up

Alcoholic beverage prices remain stable

Inflation

Page 15: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: CPI by Food Type Updated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

All Ite

ms

Proce

ssed

Foo

ds

Unpro

cess

ed F

oods

Bread

and

Cer

eals

Mea

t Fish

Milk

, Egg

s an

d Che

ese

Oils a

nd F

ats

Fruit

Veget

ables

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

6.0%

10.3% 10.5%8.9%

14.6%

7.7%

2.7%

22.6%

9.8%11.8%

October 2011

Most food groups are experiencing inflation well above CPI levels

of 6%

Inflation: CPI by Food Type

Page 16: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: CPI by ProvinceUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

Wes

tern

Cap

e

Easte

rn C

ape

North

ern

Cape

Free

State

KwaZul

u Nat

al

North

Wes

t

Gaute

ng

Mpu

mal

anga

Lim

popo

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

5.9%

7.1%7.6%

6.6%6.0%

6.6%

5.9% 6.1% 6.1%

October 2011

Only Gauteng and the Western Cape are

experiencing inflation below CPI levels

Inflation: CPI by Province

Page 17: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• CPI increased from 5.7% in September to 6% in October, its highest level since January

2010

• PPI increased from 10.5% to 10.6%

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation increased from 8.5% to 10.6% in October, its highest level since May 2009

• The Reserve Bank expects inflation to peak at about 6,3% in the first quarter of 2012 before declining gradually and returning to within the target range in the final quarter

October saw CPI reaching the Central Bank’s upper target of 6%. Analysts were of the opinion that the Bank may therefore start toying with the idea of cutting interest rates to boost the economy. Higher food and fuel costs have been driving the rise in prices, coupled with a rand exchange rate that has weakened close to 30% against the dollar this year. However Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus commented that “in the current climate we think we should watch (the breach) rather than respond to it”. It is therefore likely that the Reserve Bank will continue with its “wait and see approach” and consumers will have to deal with higher prices for a little while longer.NOTE: In January 2009, the official measure of inflation in South Africa switched from the CPIX, based on a basket of goods and services excluding bond repayments, to the CPI, which includes bond repayments, and is based on a basket which has been reweighted to be more representative of what the average South African household is spending its money on.

Inflation

Page 18: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Prime Lending RateUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: South African Reserve Bank

Jan

20

00

Ma

y 2

00

0

Se

p 2

00

0

Jan

20

01

Ma

y 2

00

1

Se

p 2

00

1

Jan

20

02

Ma

y 2

00

2

Se

p 2

00

2

Jan

20

03

Ma

y 2

00

3

Se

p 2

00

3

Jan

20

04

Ma

y 2

00

4

Se

p 2

00

4

Jan

20

05

Ma

y 2

00

5

Se

p 2

00

5

Jan

20

06

Ma

y 2

00

6

Se

p 2

00

6

Jan

20

07

Ma

y 2

00

7

Se

p 2

00

7

Jan

20

08

Ma

y 2

00

8

Se

p 2

00

8

Jan

20

09

Ma

y 2

00

9

Se

p 2

00

9

Jan

20

10

Ma

y 2

01

0

Se

p 2

01

0

Jan

20

11

Ma

y 2

01

1

Se

p 2

01

1

Jan

20

12

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

Rate

2008/2009 Recession

SARB takes aggressive steps to fight inflation

SARB adopts ‘wait & see’ approach

Interest Rates

Page 19: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• The prime lending rate remains at 9% as the Reserve Bank decided to leave the repo rate

unchanged at 5.5%

• This is the lowest level since 1974

The prime interest rate is expected to stay unchanged at 9% until late next year due to global economic concerns and slow growth. This low interest rate environment has led to households reducing their debt to disposable income ratio from more than 81% three years ago to 75.9% in the second quarter of 2011. This means the cost of servicing debt as a percentage of disposable income of households also declined, leaving South African consumers with more disposable income. However, despite this positive shift, debt levels are still extremely high and this, coupled with high food and fuel prices will probably cause consumers to buy more non-durables, like food and clothing this Christmas, say analysts. While this is good news for South Africa’s major food retailers, it does mean that sales of higher margin goods such as general merchandise will probably be muted.

Interest Rates

Page 20: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Key Labour Market ComponentsUpdated 09 November 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA

Ma

r 20

01

Jun

200

1S

ep

20

01

De

c 2

00

1M

ar

200

2Ju

n 20

02

Se

p 2

00

2D

ec

20

02

Ma

r 20

03

Jun

200

3S

ep

20

03

De

c 2

00

3M

ar

200

4Ju

n 20

04

Se

p 2

00

4D

ec

20

04

Ma

r 20

05

Jun

200

5S

ep

20

05

De

c 2

00

5M

ar

200

6Ju

n 20

06

Se

p 2

00

6D

ec

20

06

Ma

r 20

07

Jun

200

7S

ep

20

07

De

c 2

00

7M

ar

200

8Ju

n 20

08

Se

p 2

00

8D

ec

20

08

Ma

r 20

09

Jun

200

9S

ep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9M

ar

201

0Ju

n 20

10

Se

p 2

01

0D

ec

20

10

Ma

r 20

11

Jun

201

1S

ep

20

11

3000400050006000700080009000

10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000

Employed Not Economically Active Labour force Unemployed

Expanded Public Works Programme introduced

Effects of recession felt

Employment

Page 21: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY

• The official unemployment rate went down from 25.7% to 25% in the third quarter of 2011

• Restrictive labour laws and a lack of skills among the youth are two of the major problems currently facing the labour market today

The number of persons in the labour force increased by 98,000 between Q2 2011 and Q3 2011 and formal sector employment increased by 238,000 jobs, while informal sector employment decreased by 53,000 jobs.

It is hoped that the much discussed Youth Wage Subsidy will be implemented as planned on 1 April 2012, reducing chronic youth unemployment, aiding businesses which are struggling with high wage costs and increasing consumer spending. According to StatsSA, more than 72% of the officially unemployed population is younger than 34.

Low levels of employment means fewer breadwinners in South African families and therefore lower disposable income. It is hoped though, that the country can build on the small improvement of the last quarter.

Employment

Page 22: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Percentage of Disposable Household Income Devoted to Debt RepaymentUpdated 09 November 2011

Market Overview

Source: South African Reserve Bank

20

05

/Q1

20

05

/Q2

20

05

/Q3

20

05

/Q4

20

06

/Q1

20

06

/Q2

20

06

/Q3

20

06

/Q4

20

07

/Q1

20

07

/Q2

20

07

/Q3

20

07

/Q4

20

08

/Q1

20

08

/Q2

20

08

/Q3

20

08

/Q4

20

09

/Q1

20

09

/Q2

20

09

/Q3

20

09

/Q4

20

10

/Q1

20

10

/Q2

20

10

/Q3

20

10

/Q4

20

11

/Q1

20

11

/Q2

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Effects of low interest rates

Boom period

Household Debt

Page 23: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• Household debt dropped to 75.9% (Q2, 2011), meaning that for every R100 earned,

households have R75.90 debt

• The level was described by Reserve Bank chief economist, Monde Mnyande as “relatively elevated”

• Q2 also showed a rise in YOY disposable income growth from 8.9% (Q1) to 9.9%

Though the debt situation improved slightly in the second quarter, consumers are still experiencing high levels of financial vulnerability regarding debt. This is shown by the percentage of consumers with impaired records increasing from 46.4% (Q1) to 46.7% (Q2). Some analysts are of the opinion that although the ratio of household debt to disposable income is declining, this is taking place too slowly and as long as it remains relatively high, South Africans will continue to be in a vulnerable position and economic growth under threat.

Household Debt

Page 24: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Consumer Confidence IndexUpdated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: Bureau for Economic Research

Ma

r 0

1Ju

n 0

1S

ep

01

De

c 0

1M

ar

02

Jun

02

Se

p 0

2D

ec

02

Ma

r 0

3Ju

n 0

3S

ep

03

De

c 0

3M

ar

04

Jun

04

Se

p 0

4D

ec

04

Ma

r 0

5Ju

n 0

5S

ep

05

De

c 0

5M

ar

06

Jun

06

Se

p 0

6D

ec

06

Ma

r 0

7Ju

n 0

7S

ep

07

De

c 0

7M

ar

08

Jun

08

Se

p 0

8D

ec

08

Ma

r 0

9Ju

n 0

9S

ep

09

De

c 0

9M

ar

10

Jun

10

Se

p 1

0D

ec

10

Ma

r 1

1Ju

n 1

1S

ep

11

De

c 1

1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

3

-7-9 -9

-2

1

-1

-12

0 1

-9

4

-7

20

64

1917 17

20 21 20

17 18

2321

18

22

12

-6

-1

-4

1

4

1

6

15 14 15 14

911

4 5

2008/2009 Recession

Boom period –

High levels of GDP growth

Period of recovery

Consumer Confidence

Page 25: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• Consumer confidence increased by 1 index point in Q4 of 2011 to +5 (from +4 in Q3 of

2011)

• Consumer confidence increased due to a slightly higher percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their household finances and a slightly lower percentage rating the present as the wrong time to buy durable goods relative to Q3 of 2011

• However, these increases were partially countered by a decline in the percentage of consumers that expect the economic situation in South Africa to improve over the next 12 months

In Q4 of 2011 consumers became even more pessimistic about the economy, but slightly more optimistic about their own finances. Consumer confidence remains above average though, supportive of consumer spending. This means that consumers will spend the bulk of any increases in real disposable income going forward. However, accelerating inflation will likely dent the growth in real disposable income over the short term, which will probably lead to lower growth in consumer spending given the limited access to bank credit.

Consumer Confidence

Page 26: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 1: Retail Trade Sales (R’m)Updated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: South African Reserve Bank

Jan

20

02

Ap

r 2

00

2Ju

l 20

02

Oct

20

02

Jan

20

03

Ap

r 2

00

3Ju

l 20

03

Oct

20

03

Jan

20

04

Ap

r 2

00

4Ju

l 20

04

Oct

20

04

Jan

20

05

Ap

r 2

00

5Ju

l 20

05

Oct

20

05

Jan

20

06

Ap

r 2

00

6Ju

l 20

06

Oct

20

06

Jan

20

07

Ap

r 2

00

7Ju

l 20

07

Oct

20

07

Jan

20

08

Ap

r 2

00

8Ju

l 20

08

Oct

20

08

Jan

20

09

Ap

r 2

00

9Ju

l 20

09

Oct

20

09

Jan

20

10

Ap

r 2

01

0Ju

l 20

10

Oct

20

10

Jan

20

11

Ap

r 2

01

1Ju

l 20

11

Oct

20

11

2000022500250002750030000325003500037500400004250045000475005000052500550005750060000

Spikes indicate festive season sales peaks

Retail Sales

Page 27: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Fig 2: Retail Trade Sales (R’m) – Trended Updated 01 December 2011

Market Overview

Source: StatsSA. Measure: Economic activity in the retail trade based on a sample of income tax registered private & public enterprises (incl VAT). Consists of food, beverages & tobacco (largest contributor ± 35%), pharmaceutical & medical goods, cosmetics, toiletries, household furniture, appliances, articles & equipment, repair of personal & household goods, hardware, paints & glass, textiles, clothing, footwear & leather goods.

Jan

20

02

Ap

r 2

00

2Ju

l 20

02

Oct

20

02

Jan

20

03

Ap

r 2

00

3Ju

l 20

03

Oct

20

03

Jan

20

04

Ap

r 2

00

4Ju

l 20

04

Oct

20

04

Jan

20

05

Ap

r 2

00

5Ju

l 20

05

Oct

20

05

Jan

20

06

Ap

r 2

00

6Ju

l 20

06

Oct

20

06

Jan

20

07

Ap

r 2

00

7Ju

l 20

07

Oct

20

07

Jan

20

08

Ap

r 2

00

8Ju

l 20

08

Oct

20

08

Jan

20

09

Ap

r 2

00

9Ju

l 20

09

Oct

20

09

Jan

20

10

Ap

r 2

01

0Ju

l 20

10

Oct

20

10

Jan

20

11

Ap

r 2

01

1Ju

l 20

11

Oct

20

11

2000022500250002750030000325003500037500400004250045000475005000052500550005750060000

Effects of 2008/2009 Recession

felt

Boom period

Positive retail environment

despite economic

uncertainty

Retail Sales: Trended

Page 28: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

Market Overview

COMMENTARY• Retail sales growth for September unexpectedly accelerated to 8.3% compared to

September 2010, when the market had expected growth of 6.4%

• The highest growth rate was recorded by retailers in hardware, paint and glass while retailers of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores experienced a 0% YOY increase in retail sales for the month

Analysts believe that this level of growth is unsustainable and must be considered in light of the soccer World Cup last year, which had caused a spike then created a lower base for the current results. It is however an indication that the low interest rates, slightly improved employment levels and high nominal income levels are supporting some South African consumers, although food retailers seem to be suffering from high food inflation levels globally. With household debt still so high, consumers are expected to spend cautiously this festive season.

Retail Sales

Page 29: © 2011 Trade Intelligence South African Economic Indicators November 2011.

© 2011 Trade Intelligence

DisclaimerThese materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business, and TI makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein.

TI will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein.

TI expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy.

* TI refers to The Retail Workshop (Pty) Ltd trading as Trade Intelligence

For further information:+27 (0)31 303 2803 / [email protected]

Other SourcesABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; www.businesslive.co.za; www.businessweek.com; www.moneyweb.co.za; www.supermarket.co.za