, Finance First Edition , MBA. , . , ( 1997 .), , . : ; . 592 .,
.; ISBN 978-5-8459-0946-6, 0-1331-0897-X; 70x100/16; CD-ROM; 2007,
4 .; .
......................................................................................................................................19
............................................................................................................................................20
.........................................................................................................................20
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........................................................................................................21
....................................................................21
...............................................................................................21
.........................................................21 -
.................................................................21
...............................................................................................................22
......................................................................................................................22
FINCOACH FINCOACH.................22 Web- PHLIP/CW: Prentice Hall
Internet
(www.prenhall.com/bodie)...........................................................................22
Web-
(www.prenhall.com/bodie).................................................................22
.........................................................................................................22
- " Prentice Hall"..........................................22 ,
................................23
.....................................................................................................................................24
I................................................................................................................................................25
.....................................................................................................25
1...........................................................................................................................................25
............................................................................................................25
.......................................................................................................................................25
.......................................................................................................................................25
1.1.
........................................................................................26
1
1.2.
...................................................................26
..............................................................................................................................26
1.3. , ..............28 1.4. ,
...................................29 1.8. :
..................................30 1.9.
......................................................................31
7.
..........................................................................31
)
.....................................................................31
) ............31 )
...........................................................................................................................................31
8.
.......................................................................................................31
9. ..............................................................32
. Financial Executives
Institute..........................................................................................32
...............................................................................................................................................33
(finance), 38
....................................................................................................................34
(financial
system),38....................................................................................34
, . (net worth), 43..............34 (corporation),
46..........................................................................................................34
...........................................................................................................................35
2...........................................................................................................................................36
.......................................................................................................36
.......................................................................................................................................36
.......................................................................................................................................36
2.1.
.............................................................36
2.2.
..............................................................................................37
2.1..................................................................................................................38
5000 ., . , . 2.1...........................................38 2.3.
...................................38 2.3.1. 1.
...........................38 2.3.2. 2.
................................................................................39
2.3.3. 3. -
................................................................40
2.4..........................................................................................................40
2.3.4. 4. .........40
2.5..................................................................................................................41
2.3.5. 5.
................................................................41
2.6..........................................................................................................42
2.3.6. 6. ........................42
2.7..................................................................................................................43
2.8......................................................................................................44
2.9..................................................................................................................45
2.4. " " .........................45 2.5.
.................................................................................................47
2.10................................................................................................................47
2.6.
..............................................................................47
2.6.1.
....................................................................................................48
.........................................................................................48
2.12................................................................................................................49
2.6.2.
...............................................................50
2.6.3. ....................................................51
iCyMMapHacQCTfcnu1! , 30 )111''':':1'" 1'/::1 |..................52
2
" 0,3% ,
................................................................................................52
. Upper Analytical Services,
Inc................................................52
||||.|............................................................................................................................52
..................................................52 . The
Economist, 17 , 1999, . 111. 1999 The Economist Newspaper Group,
Inc. . , www. economist.
corn..................................................................................................................................52
2.6.4. ....................................................52
......................................................................................................................................................53
........................................................................................................................................................54
| 2.4. , C,1926-1997
(%)......................................................................................................................54
2.6.5. 1926-1997 ......................55 = - 1 +
............................................................................................................................56
-0,02857=2,857%...............................................................................................................................56
I
Bond....................................................................................................................57
2.6.6.
...........................................................................58
2.6.7. , .............................58
........................................................................59
.....................................................................................................................................59
....................................................................................................59
...............................................................................................................................59
........................................................................................................................59
2.7.
....................................................................................59
2.7.1.
............................................................................................................................60
2.7.2. - .....................................................60
2.7.3.
..................................................................................................60
2.7.4.
....................................................................................................61
2.7.5.
........................................................................................................61
2.7.6.
..............................................................................................61
2.7.7. , .......................................62 2.7.8. ,
...............................................................................62
2.7.9. , .............................................62 2.8.
................................................................................................................................62
2.8.1.
.....................................................................63
2.9. ...........64 2.9.2.
........................................................................................64
2.9.3.
.............................................................................65
...............................................................................................................................................65
...........................................................................................................................66
...........................................................................................................................68
............................................................................................................................68
2.1 .........................................................69
.............................................................................................................................69
.....................................................................................................69
3...............................................................................................................................................70
:
....................................................................................................................70
3.1.
.......................................................................70
...............................................................................................................71
3
3.1..................................................................................................................71
3.2. 0 ....................................................71
3.2.1.
......................................................................................................................................72
3.2.2.
.........................................................................................73
3.3..................................................................................................................74
3.2.3.
...................................................................................74
...............................75
.................................75 , ,
..................................................77 . (, - : L1FO
(last in, first out" " , ") FIFO ("first in, first out" " ")), , .
, , , , ,
..........................................................................................................................................77
. ,
,..........................................................................77
.
................................................................78
. , ( ), ( ). .
............................................................................................................................................................78
. , , , , , , ,
...........................................................................78
3.5..................................................................................................................78
?........................................................................................78
(book value). , ( ), ,
.......................................................................78
. 3.1 , GPC 201 . 313,40 ., 187,50 . , GPC,
............................................................................................................................................................78
, ? , ?
.................................................................................................................78
,
.........................................................................................78
4
-................................78 , , ,
,.................................................................................................................78
....................................................78 -, , . , , .
, , - , (intangible assets), , ...........78 , , - , . , , , - , ,
(goodwill). , , . , , , , ,.. .78 , , . , , , .
................................................................................................................78
, . . , , , IBM 3,9 ., 2,6 . 1,2
....................................................................................................................................................78
, . ? , , , . , , , (1,2 .), ,
-.............................................................................................................................................79
- , 29000 ., 60000 . ? (29000 ,) , , 60000 . , , , 60000 ,. 79 . ,
, , 5
, , , , - , , , , ...............................79 , , . , , ,
, . (marking to market)................79 . , , , - , , , , , , , .
(John R. Hicks) " " (Value and Capital), , 6- (income, earnings,
profits) , , ,
................................................................................................................................................79
. , , , 100000 , , 60000 . , , , , , , , 60000 . , . , , 40000
.................................................................79
, , , , . , 2 , , 50 . 10%, 3 . (., 2 . - 50 . 0,10 = -3 .). ,
............................................................................................................79
V, R. Hicks, Value and Capital, 2- (New York: Oxford University
Press, 1946).
c/np172......................................................................................................................................................79
, , (.
3-4)-...............................................................79
, (, , ), , , . . , 6
. , -l- 2
:................................................................................................80
_ , , ____ ______
...................................................................................................80
........................................................................................................80
(total shareholder
returns)................................................................................................................................................80
GPC. , , 201 , 200 . , , , 187,20 . . , , i0 . , GPC 1,4%.
:..............................................80 - 187,20 .-200
-+10 . .,.,. = =
....................................................................80
200
.............................................................................................................................................80
, , / ) (ROE return on equity). ROE
:....................................................80 ROE = .
23< 4 - - 0.078
7.8%..........................................................80
300
>............................................................................................80
, , ROE ,
................................................................................................80
VGI Corporation, 207 , 5 ,, 3 . . 30 ., 40 . 32 . 35 > . ROE
....................................................80 3.6.
..............80 , , , ....................80 , : (profitability),
(asset turnover), "" ( ) (financial leverage), (liquidity) (market
value). , 3.5
GPC.....................................................................................80
(' ). (return on sales), (return on assets) (return on equity).
(EBIT earnings before interest and taxes), - , , , ' , , , 7
, ..........80 , , . , - ...80 "", . ,
...........................81
.....................................................................................................................81
. , , , . ( ), : .....................81 , , (/ price to earnings)
(/ market to
book).................................................................81
7 . . -
-..........................................................................................................81
s , - Q. (James ), '......................................81
..............................................................81 ,
:............................................................................................................................................81
: ;
............................................................................................................................................................81
,
;...............................................................................................81
;.................81
;............................................................................................................................................81
, ,
-...................................................................................................................81
, : (1) Dan & Sradstreet, (2) (Annual Statement Studies by
Robert Morris Associates), (3) (the Commerce Department's Quarterly
Financial Repo/i) (4) . , - Internet,..........81 3.6.1.
.............................................81 (ROA) 1
;..................................................................................81
_
..............................................................................................................81
8
.................................................................................................81
= ROS ...........................................81 , ROA ROS , , ,
, . , , , , , .
-...........................................................................81
, , 10%, , , . . 3,6, "" (2%) 10%- , "" . , () , , 0,5 ,
%-.............................................................81
ROE , . . 3.8 , (ROA) (ROE) , . , Ifdebt 10%
................................................................................82
. , , (ROE) (1 - ) (ROA), , ,...............82 , - , , Moody's
Standard & Poors Corporation, , . , ,
,...................................................................82
3.6.3. ................82 , , . , , , . , , . , , . , , , , , - tjl
, ,
.....................................................................................82
3.7.
...............................................................................82
: , . , , 9
. , , , , .........................82 - 1995 1 Corporation . , ,
1995 , . , 4....................82 . , , . , , , , , , , , , , ,
-..............................................82
...............................................82 1. , , , , , , ,
............................................................................82
2. , , , . , , , . - , , , , . , , - ,........82 3-
,....................83 4. ( ), , , , ,
...................................................................................................83
5. ( ) ,...................................................83 9 ,
ITT S&P 500 . 1991 1995 , , ITT
.......................................83 3.8.
...................................83 10
, , . , . GPC , 20%, , , 204 . 345,6
............................................................83 , ,
, , , . 55% , , , 204 . 190,8 . (0,55 345 .). ,
-..........................................................83 [ '
< - s-method).
-............................................................84 ,
204 . 1224,16
...........................................................................................................84
............................................................................................................................................................84
(.. , ). , 8%, 15%. , 8% 15% , (.. 203 .). , 204 , 87,26 . , 40% ,
6,57 . , 9,85 . 204 .,
3.11-....................................................................84
204 . GPC 30% , 6,9 . ( 333,24 340,14 .). 207 ., 10,37 , ( , ),
;..........................................................................................84
= - - .......................................84 -207,36 .-6,9
.-10,37 . ,=190,09.............................................84 ,
GPC 204 . 20%, 190,09 . - . : (, . 3.11), . ,
..........................................................84
...................................................................................................................................84
......................84 , , . , , Web- Prentice-Hall'".
................................................84 .
3.1...........................................................................84
11
3.9.1.
.................................................................84
.............................................................................................84
=0,12
12%...................................................................................................................................85
g=1
.....................................................................................................................................85
3.12................................................................................................................85
3.10. ...........................................................85
3.13................................................................................................................86
3.11. ...................................86
3.14................................................................................................................87
3.1.
?.......................................................................................................................................88
3.2. GPC, 50 . . ?...............88 3.3. .....88 GPC , 10 . .,
?.............................................................................................................................88
3.4. , GPC 10 . ., ?.............................................88
3.5. ?........................................88 3.6. , , ,
?......................................................................88
3.7. VGI Corporation, 207. 5 ., 3 . . 30 ., 40 . 32 . 35 . . ROE
TSR (total shareholder
returns).....................................................................................88
3.8.
?...................................................................................................89
3.9. (ROS) , (ROA) , ,
()?.........................................................89
3.10. "" (ROE),
(ROA)?..................................................................................89
3.11. 204 . 345 . ., , 360 . ., ?........89 3.12. ,
?...................................89 3.13.
?.......................................................................................................................89
3.14.
?.............................................................................................................................................89
3.1 3.8 . Ruffy Stuffed Toy 207 .
(.);............................................................................................89
.........................................................................................................................90
II...............................................................................................................................................94
..................................................................................................................................94
12
4...........................................................................................................................................94
.....................................................................................................................................94
4.1.
.................................................................................................95
4.1.1.
........................................................................................97
4.1.2.
.............................................................................................99
4.1.3. .............................................100 4.1.4.
......................................................................................................100
4.2. ............................................101 4.3.
........................102 4.3.1. 100 100 ................104 4.4.
......................................................................................................104
4.4.1.
...............................................................108
4.4.2.
............................................................................................................108
4.5.
............................................................109
4.5.1.
.................................................................................................110
4.5.2. .............................................110 4.5.3.
.....................................111 4.5.4.
.................111 4.6.
..................................................................................................................111
4.6.1.
................................................................................112
4.6.2.
.........................................................................113
4.6.3.
......................................................................113
4.6.4.
..............................................................................114
4.7.
..............................................................................................115
4.7.1. .......................................................116
4.7.2.
..........................................................................116
4.8.
.......................................................................................117
4.8.1.
....................................................................118
4.9. ..............................118 4.9.1. :
..................................119 4.10.
...............................................................................................................................119
4.10.1.
...........................................................................120
4.10.2. :
1.......................................................121 4.10.3.
, ........122 4.10.4. ........122 4.10.5.
....................................................................122
4.10.6. :
2.......................................................123 4.10.7.
........................................................................................124
4.10.8. :
3.......................................................124 4.10.9.
................................................................125
6.........................................................................................................................................126
.......................................................................126
6.1. ..............................................127 6.2.
?...........................128 6.3. :
...........................................................................................129
6.4.
..................................................................................................................................................130
6.5.
...........................................................................................132
6.6.
...................................................................................................134
13
6.6.1.
.............................................................................................138
6.6.2. NPV
.................................................................138
6.7. ......138 6.8.
..............................................................141
6.9. .........................................142 6.10.
................................................143
III...........................................................................................................................................154
.......................................................................................................154
7.........................................................................................................................................154
...............................................................154
.....................................................................................................................................154
.............................154 , ,
.............................................................................................................................................154
.................................................................................154
............................................................................154
.....................................................................................................................................154
7.1. .................155 7.2.
..............................................................................................................................155
7.3.
.....................................................................156
7.4. ...................157 7.5.
..............................................158 7.6.
......................................159 7.7. ....160 7.8.
....................................................161 7.8.1.
.............................................................................................161
7.8.2.
.........................................................................................162
7.9. ...........................................162 7.10.
....................................163 7.11.
...................................................................163
.............................................................................................................................................165
.........................................................................................................................165
..................................................................................................165
.........................................................................................................................167
..............................................................................................................................168
.....................................168
8.........................................................................................................................................170
: .................170
.....................................................................................................................................170
.....................................................................................................................................170
8.1. ............................................170 8.2. :
......172 8.1.
...................................................172 8.3. ,
........................................................................................................................173
8.3.1. , ""
............................................................................................................176
8.4. .......................................................176
8.5.
...............................................................177
8.5.1.
...............................................................................178
8.5.2. .........................................................178
14
8.5.3. , .......................................179 8.6.
..............................................................179
8.6.1.
........................................................................................................179
8.6.2.
.....................................................................................................180
8.6
...............................................................................................................180
.............................................................................................................................................181
.........................................................................................................................181
..................................................................................................181
.........................................................................................................................182
9.........................................................................................................................................185
...................................................................................185
.....................................................................................................................................185
.....................................................................................................................................185
9.1.
..................................................................185
9.1. - .........................................................185
9.2. : ..................186 9.2.1.
.......................................................................................................187
9.1................................................................................................................188
9.3. : ..........188 9.3. Nogrowth Co. Hormaiprofft
Co..........................................................189
9.4. /:
.................................................................................................................................190
9.5.
?.....................................................................................................................191
9.5.1. ......................................................191
9.4. Cashrich
...................................................................................................................192
9.5.2. ,
........................................................................192
9.5. Cashrich .: ..................................193 9.5.3.
.......................................193 9.5.4.
...............................................................195
.............................................................................................................................................195
........................................................................................................................196
.........................................................................................................................196
..................................................................................................196
.........................................................................................................................197
IV...........................................................................................................................................199
..................................................................................199
10.......................................................................................................................................199
.................................................................................199
10.1.
.......................................................................................................199
10.1.1.
................................................................................................200
10.1.2.
..........................................................................................201
10.2.
.................................................................201
10.2.1. , .....................................202 10.2.2. ,
..............................................202 10.2.3.
...........................................................203
10.3.
............................................................................................203
10.3.1.
....................................................................................................203
10.3.2.
...........................................................................................................204
10.3.4.
...........................................................................205
10.3.5.
................................................................................................205
10.4.
.............................................................................205
15
10.4.1.
.........................................................................................................206
10.4.2.
............................................................................................................206
10.4.3.
.....................................................................................................206
10.5. ...........................208 10.5.1.
...................................................208 10.5.2.
...........................................................................208
10.6.
..................................................................209
10.7. :
..................................................................211
10.8. ..........................................211 10.9.
...............213
11.......................................................................................................................................220
, .........................................220 11.1.
.......................................................................................................................220
11.2. ....................224 11.3. :
.......................................................225 11.4.
.........................................225 11.5.
...............................................................226
11.6. ......................227 11.6.1
...........................................................................................227
11.6.2
................................................................................................................227
11.6.3
................................................................................................228
11.7.
......................................................................................228
11.8. .............................228 11.9.
................................................229 11.9.1. ""
..........................................................................................229
11.9.2. ""
..................................................................................230
11.10.
............................................................................230
11.10.1. : ...........230 11.10.2.
...............................................................................231
11.11. ....................................233
12.......................................................................................................................................244
....................................................244 12.1.
...................244 12.1.1.
.........................................................................................244
12.1.2.
.................................................................................245
12.1.3.
...........................................................................................247
12.1.4. ........................................247 12.2. :
.............................................247 12.2.1.
..............................................................................247
12.2.2. . . .248 12.2.4.
...................................................................250
12.3. 1
........................................................................251
12.3.1.
.............................................................251
12.3.2. ................................................253 12.3.3.
......253 12.3.4. : 2..............................254 12.3.5.
..................................................255
V............................................................................................................................................260
...............................................................................................................................260
13.......................................................................................................................................260
16
...........................................................................261
13.1. ..........................................261 13.2. ,
.............................................................................................................................264
13.3. ""
....................................................................................................................................264
13.4.
..................................................................................................................................................266
13.5.
......................................................................................................................268
13.5.1.
................................................................................................................................268
3.5.2.
.................................................................................................269
13.5.3.
...................................................................................................269
13.6. ......................270
14.......................................................................................................................................275
....................275 14.1.
..................................................................................................................................................275
14.2. ................................277 14.3.
.........................................................................278
14.4. - '
..................................................................................................................................................279
14.5.
..................................................................................................................................................279
14.6. : -.................280 14.6.1. ""
.......................................................281 14.7.
....................................................................................282
14.8. "" .................283 14.9 ........284 14.10.
.....................................................284 14.11. ""
...............................................................285
14.12. ......................................285 14.13.
.........................286
15.......................................................................................................................................292
..........................................................................292
15.1.
........................................................................292
15.1.1.
.............................................................................................294
15.2.
..........................................................................295
15.5. ()
...................................................................................................................................303
..........................................................................................................................................................305
S....................................................................................................................................................306
15.9.
:....................................................................308
15.10.
........................................................................................310
15.10.1. :
.................................................................................................311
15.11.
.................................................................................................312
VI...........................................................................................................................................318
...............................................................................................................318
16.......................................................................................................................................318
........................................................................................................318
17
16.1. ........................................319 16.2.
............................................319 16.3.
..............320 16.3.1.
............................................................................................320
16.3.2.
..............................................................................................321
16.3.3.
....................................................................................321
16.4. ..................322 16.5. : ........326 16.6.
..................................................................................................326
16.6.1.
.................................................................................................326
16.6.2. , .........................328 16.7.
.....................................................329 16.7.1. :
...........329 16.7.2.
................................................330 16.8.
..................................................................................................................................................330
16.9.
...........................................................330
16.9.1.
........................................................................................................331
16.9.2.
...............................................................332
16.10. "".......................................................332
16.10.1. ...........................332
17.......................................................................................................................................340
.................................................................340
17.1.
....................................................................................340
17.2.
................................................................................................343
17.3. ...................................................344
17.3.1.
.....................................................................................................................344
17.3.2. -
..............................................................................................................................346
...........................................................................................350
2..................................................................................................................................350
3..................................................................................................................................350
4..................................................................................................................................350
5..................................................................................................................................350
6..................................................................................................................................350
7..................................................................................................................................350
8..................................................................................................................................351
9..................................................................................................................................351
10................................................................................................................................351
11................................................................................................................................351
12................................................................................................................................351
13................................................................................................................................351
14................................................................................................................................352
15................................................................................................................................352
16................................................................................................................................352
17................................................................................................................................352
.................................................................................................................353
, (index options) "" "" . (residual claim) , ,
...............................................................................................356
18
I. 1. 2. 3. : II. 4. 5. 6. III. 7. 8. : 9. IV. 10. 11. , 12. V.
13. 14. 15. VI. 16. 17.
, , , . : " ". , , . , (Robert Merton) (Zvi Bodie), , , . : , ,
. , , , 1997 . , , . (). , , , . , , , . ,
19
, . , , . : ", , ?". , , . ! . (Paul A. Samuelson)
, " " (MBA). , , , , , . , 1997 , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , .
, . "": ( ), , . , . . I , . II, III IV . ( ), ( ). V . (Capital
Asset Pricing Model), , , , (contingent claims), (risk corporate
debt), , "" (levered equity). VI : , , . , , . , , , , . , "" . , ,
. , , . .
20
, . , . , . , . (Craig Holden) (Indiana University) , . - "
Prentice Hall", . "E-", (Spreadsheet Modeling Exercises Handbook).
19 , , Excel. , . , Excel, , , . , . - " Prentice Hall"
(Spreadsheet Modeling Student Handbook).
. , , , , . , , : , , . , , . . , . , , 3, 6, 13, 16 17 , II VI
. , , , , IV V. , . , . , . - -, " ", 2000 , , 40 , . PowerPoint. -
Excel, . Excel , , .
21
(Bonnie Buchanan) (Georgia State University) 1000 , , . 4.1 . ,
Excel , . FINCOACH FINCOACH Test Manager , FINCOACH (Financial
Management Math Practice Program ). - " Prentice Hall", , . ,
FINCOACH Test Manager FINCOACH , FINCOACH Test Manager. Web-
PHLIP/CW: Prentice Hall Internet (www.prenhall.com/bodie) Web-
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-, http:/www.prenhall.com/bodie. , . 1. , . , , , . 2. . 3. , , , ,
. 4. , . Spreadsheet Modeling Exercises ( ). . , , . - " Prentice
Hall" . , . , 3060 . Excel , . . 1) " " 2) " ". , , . - , . , , .
Companion Web Site ( Web-). Internet Web- , .
, 1997 Prentice Hall . , , . , , . , . , , , , . , 4 5. 5 " ", ,
. , , ( ). 3, . , , , 19. 3, " : ".
23
, . , . , 3, . 6, , , . , , Excel. 16 , : (APV), (FTE) (WACC). ,
. , 16 ( ) . , , , . , , . , , . , 15, " ", , . , , 11 12, 11. ",
", , , . , . , , , , . , . , , [email protected] [email protected].
(Boston University's School of Management). (). (Sloan School)
(Harvard Business School). , . , . (Pension Research Council)
(Wharton School) (Financial Accounting Standards Board), (OECD) . .
(Robert C. Merton) - (John and Natty McArthur University) . 1970 .
1988 . . (Chicago University), Hautes Etudes Commerciales (),
(University of Lausanne), National Sun Yat-sen University
University of ParisDauphine. (American Finance Association), , . ,
(National Academy of Science). 1997 . , . , , , , . ,
24
, , , . , , (National Bureau of Economic Research), . .
I
1 ... "" , , . 2 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. , 1.4. , 1.5. 1.6. 1.7. 1.8. :
1.9. . - ? , ? . ? . ? ? ? - . , . , , 3 . ., 1 . . ? , . . ? . , ,
, . , . , .
1.1. (finance) , .
25
, 1) 2) , , - . , , , ( , , , ) (.. ), . , . (financial system)
, , . , , ( ), , (, - ), , . . , , , . : , . , , , . ( , ) , .
1.2. , , . , . -, . - ? . , . : " ". , . : , , , .. .. , . ? , ,
, (. 1.1). 1.1 ? , 500 . . ( ), , . , , (, ). , , , , , . ? :
26
( ) , . ( ), , - , , , .. . , , . . , , , , , , . , , . . , , ,
, , , ( ). , , , . , , , , , , . . , , (tax lien), , . , , - "" , ,
. . . , The Wad Street Journal, 22 , 1988 ., . 1. The Wall Street
Journal, 1998 Dow Jones&Company, Inc. | . , , , . , , , , , .
-, , , , , . ~ , . , , , . , . , . . -, , . , . , . , , , . , , ?
-, . , . . , 1776 . , . , 1990 1997 . , (. 1.2). 1.2 1990 (Harry
Markowitz), (Merton Miller) (William Sharpe) , .
27
. ", . " " (Portfolio Selection), 1952 Journal of Finance, , , .
. . , . , , , , ( "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market
Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk", Journal of'Finance, 1964) ("
,; "). , , . . , (Franco Modigliani) ( ), . , "The Cost of Capital,
Corporation Finance, and the Theory of Investment. ( , ), American
Economic Review 1958 . , , . M&M ( -), . 1997 . . ( ) (Myron
Scholes). , (Fisher Black), 57 1995 , . , . - (Black Scholes option
pricing formula).
1.3. , , . , , . , . , , . . . , ? . ? . ? , . ? , , (pool of
wealth), . , - . (assets). , . , , (asset allocation) , , .
28
, , (liability) , , . , (net worth), - . , , 100000 . 20000 . .
, 80000 . , (), 5000 . , 35000 .: (120000 .) (85000 .). , ( , , ) ,
. . , , , 1. , , , . 1.1 , ? .
1.4. , (, , ), . , . , , ; , Mitsubishi General Motors, , , -. ,
, , (business or corporate finance). , , , . , , , , . , , , . , ,
. , . - , , - , . , , , , . , . , . , , , . , , ITT Corporation
(International Telephone and Telegraph), 1920 , . 70- ITT , , , , ,
, , , . 80- ITT . 1996 . , , , . , .1
29
, , , , , , , . (capital budgeting process). (investment
project). , , . , , , . , , , . , . . , , -- , . (claims), , , . ,
. , , , , 1.6 ?
1.8. : ? , , . , , , , . , , . , , , 5. , . , , . (takeover). ,
, . , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , . , , , . , , , - , , , . .
, , .5 " ". , . , , .
30
, . , ( ) . , , ( ), . , , "". , , , , : . - . , , , , , . - , ,
. 1.7 ?
1.9. , , , . , , , , , . , " " (Financial Executive Institute) ,
, , . 1.1. 1.1 1. 5. , ) ) . - : ) ) 6. ) ) ) / ) ) ) ) 7. ) ) ) )
) 2. ) , . 3. 8. ) ) )
31
, ) , 9. ) ) ) ) ) ) 3. ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) . . Financial
Executives Institute. . . 1.1 . (chief executive officer (CEO)), .
(chief financial officer ()) () -, . , -, . , . - : , . -. - , .. ,
, . , "" . (treasurer) . , . (controller) , , , . , .
32
, . , 1) 2) , , , - . , , , . ( , ) , . , , , . , , , , , . , ,
. , , . . . - , ? . ? . ? , . ? : , . , . , . . , , , . . . , , : ,
. , , . , ( ) . . , , , . , , . (finance), 38 (financial system),38
(assets), 42 , (assets allocation), 43 (liability), 43
33
, . (net worth), 43 (sole proprietorship), 45 (partnership), 45
(corporation), 46 1.1. , ? . . , , , . : , . : , . , : , . 1.2. , ?
. . , , , . , , , . , , , , . 1.3. , , . ? . . 1.4. ? ? . . , . . ,
, , . . . " ", " ", : , . , , . , ( ) . 1.5. , ? . , . , ? , " ", ?
1.6. ? . , ( ), , , . 1.7. ?
34
. , , , .
1. ? ? ? 2. ? ? , ? 3. , , , , ? -? 4. , , , , . 100000 . . , .
, ? 5. ? 6. . , . - , ? . ? , , , , . ? 7. , . . , , . . , , . . ,
? d. ? 8. , , , , . ? ? , .
35
2 ... , . , .
2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. " " 2.5. 2.6. 2.7. 2.8. 2.9. 1 , , . , , . ,
, , . , , , . ? , . , (, ) . , , . , . , , . . , , .
2.1. , , , , , , . . , , - (New York Stock Exchange) (Osaka
Options and Futures Exchange), - () (). . , (over the counter
markets) , , . , . , . , , , . . , . , , , , , , , , , - - . ,
.
36
2.2. . 2.1, . , ( ), , ( ). , , , , , , , . , , , , ; , , 1.
. 2.1 , ( ) ( ) , ( ). , , .. ( ). (flow of funds) , , - ( , ) ,
( ). , , , , . ( ), , . , , , , , . 2.1. , , , . , , - . -. , . , ,
. , . , , . (.. ), , , . , . , , , . , , , , . , , . , , . , , , ,
, .1
37
( ), (), , , - ( ). , , , , ( ). , , , , , . , , , , , . 2.1
5000 ., . , . 2.1.
2.3. , . , , , . , . , . , 1928 1958 ., , , , . , , . , , .
(functional perspective). . , . , . . . , , . , . . , .. . , . . ,
, ; () . , .
2.3.1. 1. , , . (. . 2.1) , , , . , , . ( intertemporal ) . , ,
, , , .
38
, , . , , . , -, , . , , , , , - . , . : , , ; , . . , . , . , ,
, . , , , , . 2% , 20%- . , , . 2.2 . - ?
2.3.2. 2. , . , , , . , , , . , , . 2.1, . . , 100000 . , . , -
( ) 70000 . 75% . , 30000 . 6% . . 2.1 100000 . , . ? , , , 70000 .
. , . , , , 20000 . , 10000 . 30000 . , , , . ' , . , 30000 ., . ,
, - , . , , , . 30000 . , .
39
, . , , , , , . 2.3 .
2.3.3. 3. - , , . . , , , 5000 . . ? ? , , . , , , , . ? , ? , ,
, . , , , , , . , , , , . . ? : (, ), , . , , .. . , . , , , , . ,
, . , , . , , . ( ) , . , , , . : , .
2.4 " - " (I owe you) ? ?
2.3.4. 4. . , , .
40
(, ) , , , . , , . , , , 100000 ., 10000 . , , , , . , . , "" ,
. ( ) , 100000 . "" 10000 ., . , , , . , . , . 10000 ., 1000 . .
70- , . , . . , 11 ., 1000 ., 90,91 (1000/11). , , , , .
2.5 , , .
2.3.5. 5. , , . , . , , . , , , . , , , , . , , . , 30 , 100000
. 80000 . (.. 80% ) 8% , 20 % (.. 20000 .). 45- , . 6% . , . , ,
""? , . , , 6% 8% (. 2.1). . 2.1 |
41
, . (roll over) 3% . : . , , . , , . , , . 6,75% , 30 . . 3% ,
6%, 30- , 6,5% . . , . , , . , , . , . . Lynn Asinoff "Making
Family Loans Can Be a Rewarding Experience", Wall Street Journal,
10 , 1993, Wall Street Journal, 1993 Dow j Jones & Company,
Inc. . . , , , . , . ? , , , . , . , , , . , , 10 . . : , . , , , .
. , , 1973 , . , .
2.6 , , .
2.3.6. 6. , , , , , . , , . , , , , . , . , . : " ", " "
"-".
42
(moral hazard) , , , , . . , , , . , , . , . . , ( ) , . , , , ,
, . , . , . ? , . ? , . , , , , , , , . , , , , . , , . , - - , , ,
. , . , , , , , . , . , , : , . , , , , . , , , , . , . , , , , (,
), , . 2.7 , -. ? , (adverse selection). , , , , . (life annuities)
, . , , , , , , . , , , , (.. 65 ). ( ): 10 , 15 , 20 . , 65 , 15 .
, , , , , , , , .
43
, , , (, , ), , . , . , , , . 17,5 , 2,5 . , , , , . , . , , ,
.
2.8, . ? : , ? , , . , , . , , , , . ( ), , , , , .
(principal-agent problem) , , , , , , . . . , , " ", .. , , . , , ,
, . , , , , (collateralization), , , . . , , , . , (, , ), , . , .
, , , . , , , ("equity kicker"), . ( ), , . ; .
44
, . , , , , , . . "equity kicker", . , . 2.9 , ? ?
2.4. " " - , . , , , , . , " , . , , , , . . , , (invisible
hand) , . , , "2. , , , 1965 ( ), , . , , . . , . . . , VISA,
MasterCard American Express . , , , , . (.. , , , ). . , , . , , ,
. ( - ) . . , , . "" . ? , , . , , , . , , , , . . ( , ) , , - , .
. , , Diners Club, . , American Express Carte Blanche, .2
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, 1977), . 408.
45
, , , , ( , ), , ( ). , . 50- , , , . 60- . : VISA Master Card,
Diners Club Carte Blanche (. 2.2). 2.2 BankAmericard , 1958 1966 .,
Bank of America | . 1961 1966 . ; . | \ . 1 1966 Bank of America ,
; . Master Charge. , - First National City Bank of New-York (
Citibank) Carte Blanche, . . First National City , ( ) , , Bank of
America. , Bank of America . , . . , , , 60- . , " " , . , , , , ,
, Everything Cards, Town & Country Cards, Midwest Bank Cards,
Interbank Cards . I 1966 1970 . . . I 60- , , , . | , . . , : . .
Joseph Nocera, A Piece of the Action (New York: Simon and Schuster,
1994). International Creative Management, Inc. Copyright 1994
Joseph | Nocera , - . , , , , . . , , . , , , , ? , ? , 30 , . , ,
, .
46
2.5. (debt), (equity) (derivatives). , , . , , , , .
(fixed-income instruments) . . (maturity). ( ) (money market),
(capital market). , , (, ), ( ). (liquidity) , . , . , , (common
stocks) (shares) . (stock market). ; ( ) . . , , . (residual claim)
. , . , , , , , , ( - ) , . (limited liability) . , , . . , , , , -
. , , . . , "" (call option) , . , "" (put option) , . , , .
(forward contracts) , , . , , . 2.10 , ?
2.6. , Internet : , . .
47
2.6.1. (promised) ( ) . , . , , , , , (mortgage rate), , ,
(commercial loan rate). , (unit of account), (maturity) , (default
risk). . , . , , : , , , .. - , , "" . . , . , . , - . , , , . , .
, . . , , . , , , . , , , ? , : , . , , . . , . 3%, 9%. (exchange
rate), , , 150 1 . , , - . , 3%- . , , . , 1UO . , 15000 , .. 15000
. 9%, 109 . , , , . , , , : () = (109 . . . - 15000 ) /15000 , 140
. ? , :
48
() =
(109 . . 140 /. . -15000 ) 15000
= 0,017333
, 1,73%, 3%, , . ; , , , , 3% ? , , . 2.2, (yield curve) 7 1999
. () , , . . 2.2 , 5,25% , 30 6%. . 2.2 , . , , . 2.12 , , | I , .
.
. The Wall Street Journal, June 8, 1999, . 23. The Wall Street
Journal, 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. . . 2.2. , , . . 2.1 ,
, . , , . (yield spread) 10 , 6,21% , 7,56%. 1,35% . 2.1. (%) 5,70
1 10 6,21 10 1
49
10 6,45 6,94 10 7,09 7,56 Merrill Lynch Bond Indexes, . . The
Wall Street Journal, June 8,1999, . 23. The Wall Street Journal,
1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. . 2.13 , , , .
2.6.2. , . - . , , , . , . - , , (return) . , - . , , , . . , .
(capital gain). , (capital loss). , . , , , 100 . . 101 ., . 1% (1
.), (100 .). , . 5 . 105 . , , r, : ( - + ) r= : (105 . -100 . + 5
.) = 0,10 = 10% 100 . , : : r= + r = + r = 5% +5% = 10% , ? : ( ) ,
. 5 . , 5 . , 105 . , , , , ( ), 10%3. r= . , 3
50
2.14 50 . 1 ., , 60 . ? 40 ., ?
2.6.3. , , . , , , . . 2.2 , , . 2.2. 0 Dow Jones Index,
Standard & Poor's 500 Nikkei, Topix FT-30, FT-100 DAX CAC 40
Credit Suisse , , MSCI, EAFE , , () . : , , , . , , , . , , , , , .
"" "" -. , , . , , . , , . " ". , , , . , , , , . 1926 12%. , , , .
( , ). ( ). , , ( ) 1,34%. , , . Upper Analytical Services, Inc.,
76% . 0,5% 1% . . , , . . , .
51
, . , , , ( ), ( ). , . , . ( ), Wilshire 5000 ( ), , .
iCyMMapHacQCTfcnu1! Wilshire* 5000
, 30 )111''':':1'" 1'/::1 | +272,52% +237,63% +14,06%
+12,94%
,
" 0,3% , . . Upper Analytical Services, Inc. . 2.3. . .
||||.| 1 (%) . ' ; .11 (% ) +7,5 4,80 +4,0 5,31 -11,2 4,88 -21,3
3,32 -2,1 0,07 -3,3 3,17 +1,4 1,29 +19,6 4,81 +6,2 3,04 +13,6
. 1 (%) 1,50 +6,0 0,60 1,7 :1,42 +7,0 6,96 -3,0 130,00 -9,2 7,95
+2,6 1,49 -2,7 0,93 -2,2
1 5,38 1,59 4,53 0,61 5,22 1,52 4,29 6,75 1,81 118,00 4,39 8,16
2,54 1,45 5,10 3,89 0,91
. The Economist, 17 , 1999, . 111. 1999 The Economist Newspaper
Group, Inc. . , www. economist. corn, , . 2.3 , 1998 1999 19,6%,
2,1%. , . 85 9,2%. , , , , 1998 1 ., 1999 1,196 . 1998 130 (1,196 .
130 /), 1999 141,128 (1,196 . 118 /). , 8,56%. , . , 4.
2.6.4. . 2.3 . 2.4 (, ) 1927 1997 . , . . , .
52
1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986
1991 1996
. (Center for Research in Security Prices) . 2.3. , search in
Security () 4 Prices) Morgan Stanley Capital International Index
(MSCI). 86 I.
53
. | 2.4. , C,19261997 (%)J - 1926 3,19 7,70 8,27 1927 3,13 8,93
30,91 1928 3,82 0,10 37,88 1929 4,74 3,42 -11,91 1930 2,35 4,66
-28,48 1931 1,02 -5,31 -47,07 1932 0,81 16,84 -15,15 1933 0,29
-0,08 46,59 1934 0,16 10.02 -5,94 1935 0,17 4,98 41,37 1936 0,18
7,51 27,92 1937 0,32 0,23 -38,59 1938 0,04 5,53 25,21 1939 0,01
5,94 -5,45 1940 -0,06 6,09 -15,29 1941 0,04 0,93 -17,86 1942 0,26
3,22 12,43 1943 0,34 2,08 19,45 1944 0,32 2,81 13,80 1945 0,32
10,73 30,72 1946 0,35 -0,10 -11,87 1947 0,46 -2,63 0,00 1948 0,98
3,40 -0,65 1949 1,11 6,45 10,26 1950 1,21 0,06 21,78 1951 1,48
-3,94 16,46 1952 1,64 1,16 11,78 1953 1,78 3,63 16,46 1954 0,86
7,19 45,02 1955 1,56 -0,69 26,40 1956 2,42 -fi,27 2,62 1957 3,13
8,22 -14,31 1958 1,42 -5,29 -? 38,06 1959 0 00 51 ,0 . ROE
3.6. , , , . , : (profitability), (asset turnover), "" ( )
(financial leverage), (liquidity) (market value). , 3.5 GPC. (' ).
(return on sales), (return on assets) (return on equity). (EBIT
earnings before interest and taxes), - , , , ' , , , , . , , . ,
.
"", . , . . , , , . ( ), : . , , (/ price to earnings) (/ market
to book) 7 . . - s , - Q. (James ), '. . , : : ; , ; ; ; , , , :
(1) Dan & Sradstreet, (2) (Annual Statement Studies by Robert
Morris Associates), (3) (the Commerce Department's Quarterly
Financial Repo/i) (4) . , - Internet,.
3.6.1. (ROA) 1 ; _ = ROS , ROA ROS , , , , . , , , , , . , ,
10%, , , . . 3,6, "" (2%) 10%- , "" . , () , , 0,5 , %-
ROE , . . 3.8 , (ROA) (ROE) , . , Ifdebt 10% . . , , (ROE) (1 -
) (ROA), , , , - , , Moody's Standard & Poors Corporation, , .
, , ,
3.6.3. , , . , , , . , , . , , . , , , , , - TJL , , .
3.7. :