© 2002 Megaputer intelligence, Inc. Mining data with PolyAnalyst Your Knowledge Partner TM .

© 2002 Megaputer intelligence, Inc.

Mining data with

PolyAnalyst

Your Knowledge Partner TM

www.megaputer.com


OutlineOutline

Data Mining in BI chain

PolyAnalyst overview

Learning algorithms

Additional features

Future developments


Data Mining in BI chain



Consider a fragment of the BI chain:

DM in Decision MakingDM in Decision Making

Data Data - is what we can capture and store

KnowledgeKnowledge - is what provides for informed decisions

Problem: How to get from Data to Knowledge?

Solution: Data Mining (Machine Learning)

DataData KnowledgeKnowledge DecisionDecision ActionAction


Data MiningData Mining

"Data Mining is the process of identifying valid, novel, potentially useful, and ultimately comprehensible knowledge from databases that is used to make crucial business decisions."

-- G. Piatetsky-Shapiro, KDNuggets editor

www.kdnuggets.com

ValidValid NovelNovel ActionableActionable ComprehensibleComprehensible


Data Mining vs. OLAPData Mining vs. OLAP

OLAPOLAP- Helps prove or reject your hypothesesby dissecting data along different dimensions

- But you have to guess the answer first !- But you have to guess the answer first !

Data MiningData Mining- Automatically develops and tests numerous hypotheses by learning from historical data- Analyzes raw data


Business Intelligence ChainBusiness Intelligence Chain Consider direct marketing automation

Analyze data Integrate applications

X


Data Mining TasksData Mining Tasks Predicting Classifying Clustering Segmenting Explaining Associating Visualizing Link Analysis Text Mining


Fields of applicationFields of applicationDatabase marketers Response prediction

Market segmentation

Customer valuation

Cross-sell analysis

Insurance and HMO companies Customer retention

Head-cost reduction

Premium sensitivity testing

Securities and currency traders Forecasting market behavior

Trading strategy optimization

Hospitals and physicians Medical diagnostics

Selecting medical interference

Government agencies Fraud detection

Revenue prediction

Retailers Market Basket Analysis

Recommendation systems


What makes DM hard?What makes DM hard?

Unfamiliar concept and lack of experience Results require interpretation by an analyst Poor integration in existing applications Difficulty processing very large databases Necessity to learn a new application High cost


Megaputer responseMegaputer response Challenge:Challenge: Unfamiliar concept and lack of experience

Response:Response: Collaborative Appliance Program – combines Megaputer analysts expertise in data mining and customer knowledge of the business project

Challenge:Challenge: Results require interpretation by an analystResponse:Response: Simple reporting and batch processing capabilities

Challenge:Challenge: Poor integration in existing applicationsResponse:Response: Easy scoring of external data with a few mouse clicks

Challenge:Challenge: Difficulty processing very large databasesResponse:Response: In-Place Data Mining

Challenge:Challenge: Necessity to learn a new applicationResponse:Response: An SDK of easy-to-integrate PolyAnalyst COM components

Challenge:Challenge: High costResponse:Response: Flexible licensing mechanism


PolyAnalystoverview



What is PolyAnalyst?What is PolyAnalyst? Multi-strategy data mining suite

The largest selection of ML algorithms for diverse business tasks

Structured data and text processing tools

Ease-of-use: friendly data manipulation and visualization

Deep integration Applying models to external DB through the OLE DB

protocol Exporting models to XML COM components

Best Price/Performance ratio


Key differentiators of PolyAnalystKey differentiators of PolyAnalyst

Integrated analysis of structured (numeric and categorical) and unstructured (text) data

Easy to learn and operate visual analytical interface The largest selection of powerful machine learning algorithms Mouse-driven application of predictive models to data in any

external system through a standard OLEDB link Simple integration with external applications: SDK of COM

components In-Place Data Mining capabilities for processing huge

databases Step-by-step tutorials based on real-world case studies Rich data manipulation and visualization tools Reusable analytical scripts for batch process data mining The best Price/Performance ratio


PolyAnalyst

Boeing (USA) 3M (USA)

Chase Manhattan Bank (USA) McKinsey & Company (USA)

Siemens (Germany) Lockheed Martin (USA)

Allstate Insurance (USA) ICICI Bank (India)

Mars (USA) Taco Bell (USA)

DuPont (USA) Asea Skandia (Sweden)

France Telecom (France) Cambridge Technology Partners (USA)

Carlson Marketing (USA) Central Bank (Russia)

US Navy (USA) KPN Research (Netherlands)

Alka Insurance (Denmark) National Cancer Institute (USA)

Customer base: 300+ installations300+ installations

Sample customers


PolyAnalyst workplacePolyAnalyst workplaceProject

navigation tree

Control buttons

Data and Resultspane

Objects and Collectionsrepresented by icons

Exploration enginereport fragment

PolyAnalystlog journal


PolyAnalyst providesPolyAnalyst provides Access to data held in a database or data

warehouse Numerical Categorical Yes/no Date

Data manipulation and visualization

14 machine learning algorithms

Convenient results reporting and outputing

Integration with external applications


PolyAnalystmachine learning algorithms



“Probably one the most impressive Probably one the most impressive characteristic of PolyAnalyst is the sheer characteristic of PolyAnalyst is the sheer number of data mining tasks it can tacklenumber of data mining tasks it can tackle.”

Mario ApicellaTechnology AnalystInfoWorld Test CenterJuly 3, 2000


Learning algorithmsLearning algorithms Find LawsFind Laws (SKAT algorithm) ClusterCluster (Localization of anomalies) Find DependenciesFind Dependencies (n-dimensional distributions) ClassifyClassify (Fuzzy logic modeling) Decision TreeDecision Tree (Information Gain criterion) PolyNet PredictorPolyNet Predictor (GMDH-Neural Net hybrid) Market Basket AnalysisMarket Basket Analysis (Association rules) Memory Based ReasoningMemory Based Reasoning (k-NN + GA) Linear RegressionLinear Regression (Stepwise and rule-enriched) Discriminate Discriminate (Unsupervised classification) Summary StatisticsSummary Statistics (Data summarization) Link Analysis Link Analysis (Visual correlation analysis) Text MiningText Mining (Semantic text analysis)


Cluster Cluster (FC)(FC)

Identifies clusters of similar records

Selects best variables for clustering

Suggests the number of clusters

Separates clusters of records in new data sets for

further investigation - preprocessing for other

algorithms


Cluster Cluster (continued)(continued)

Groups of similar records


Cluster Cluster (continued)(continued)

Based on analyzing distributions in hypercubes of all variables rather than on measuring distances between points

Hence, independent of rescaling of axes variable Finds only clusters actually present in data, on the

background of uniformly distributed cases


Classify Classify (CL)(CL) Fuzzy-logic based classification The function of belonging modeled by either Find

Laws, PolyNet Predictor, or LR Provides record scoring with Lift and Gain charts

used for visualization Assigns records to one of two classes and furnishes

utilized classification rule


Classify Classify (continued)(continued)

Mass mailing

Targeted mailingPolyAnalyst Lift chart illustrates an increase in the response to a campaign based on the discovered model - instead of random mailing %

of

max

ima l

p

oss

i ble

res

po

nse

Mass mailing

Targeted mailing

Pro

fit

($)

PolyAnalyst Gain chart helps optimize the profit obtained in a direct marketing campaign


Decision Tree Decision Tree (DT)(DT)

Intuitively classifies cases to selected categories Based on Information Gain splitting criteria The fastest algorithm in PolyAnalyst Scales linearly with increasing number of records


Decision Tree Decision Tree (continued)(continued)

Classification tree

Node characteristics


Decision Forest Decision Forest (DF)(DF)

The most efficient classification algorithm for tasks with multiple target categories

Transforms the task of categorizing data records to N classes into the problem of solving N tasks of categorizing records to two classes

Develops the best collection of N classification trees, with leaves containing probabilities of classifying records in the corresponding classes

Scales linearly with increasing number of records


Link Analysis Link Analysis (LK)(LK)

Reveals pairs of correlated objects Used in Fraud Detection, Text Analysis and other

correlation analysis tasks


Text Analysis Text Analysis (TA)(TA)

Extracts key concepts from natural language notes

Tags individual records with the main encountered

concepts

Recognizes synonyms and othe semantic relations

Can perform user-focused or unsupervised analysis

Integrates the analysis of text with the power of other

machine learning algorithms of PolyAnalyst

Facilitates categorization of textual documents


Text Analysis Text Analysis (continued)(continued)


Basket Analysis Basket Analysis (BA)(BA)

Is used in Retailing, Fraud Detection and Medicine Identifies in transactional data groups of products

sold together well Finds directed association rules for each of these

groups Groups baskets containing similar sets of products Characterized by

Support Confidence Improvement

Based on new mathematics: works 10 to 50 times faster than traditional algorithms


Basket Analysis Basket Analysis (continued)(continued)

Groups of productssold together well

Directed Association Rules


Basket Analysis Basket Analysis (continued)(continued)

Works with both transactional and flat data format Easily finds many-to-one rules

“I would like to continue working together with I would like to continue working together with

Megaputer on other CTP customers’ projects Megaputer on other CTP customers’ projects (mainly Swedish and Danish Banks ).(mainly Swedish and Danish Banks ).”

-- Olof GoranssonSenior Data ConsultantCTP Skandinavien AB


Find Laws Find Laws (FL)(FL)

Models relationships hidden in data

Presents discovered knowledge explicitly

Searches the space of all possible hypotheses

“The unique Find Laws algorithm along with an easy to The unique Find Laws algorithm along with an easy to

use interface made PolyAnalyst the only choice for our use interface made PolyAnalyst the only choice for our

environment.environment.”

-- James Farkas, Senior Navigation Engineer, The Boeing Company


Find Laws Find Laws (continued)(continued)

FL is based on the Megaputer’s uniqueSymbolic Knowledge Acquisition TechnologySymbolic Knowledge Acquisition Technology (SKAT)

A good introduction to SKAT: PCAI magazinePCAI magazine, January 99, p. 48-52, January 99, p. 48-52


Find Dependencies Find Dependencies (FD)(FD)

Determines most influential variables Detects multi-dimensional dependencies Predicts target variable in a table format Used as preprocessing for FL


Find Dependencies Find Dependencies (continued)(continued)

Predicted Sales per Employee


PolyNet Predictor PolyNet Predictor (PN)(PN)

Predicts values of continuous attributes Hybrid GMDH-Neural Network method Works well with large amounts of data The best architecture network is built automatically


Memory Based ReasoningMemory Based Reasoning (MB)(MB)

Performs classification to multiple categories

Based on identifying similar cases in the previous history

Uses Genetic Algorithms to find the most suitable metric for the problem


Discriminate Discriminate (DS)(DS)

Determines what features of a selected data set distinguish it from the rest of the data

Requires no target variable Can be powered by

Find Laws PolyNet Predictor Linear Regression


Linear Regression Linear Regression (LR)(LR)

Incorporates categorical and yes/no variables in the analysis correctly

Stepwise Linear Regression: only influential variables included

Can be used as a preprocessing and benchmarking module


PolyAnalystfeatures in more detail



Data Analysis Project WorkflowData Analysis Project Workflow

Access data Understand, clean and transform data Run machine learning analysis Visualize, report and share results Integrate results in existing business process


Data AccessData Access

ODBC-compliant databases:

Oracle, DB2, Informix, Sybase, MS SQL Server, etc.

Dedicated access IBM Visual Warehouse

Oracle Express

OLE DB (can do In-Place Data Mining)

CSV or DBF files

Data can be appended to the project when necessary


Data cleansing and manipulationData cleansing and manipulation

SQL querying through OLE DB Records selection according to multiple

criteria Union, intersection, or complement of data

sets Categorical values aggregation Visual Drill-through Exceptional records filtering Split into n-tile percentage intervals Random sampling


VisualizationVisualization

Histograms Line and scatter plots with zoom and drill-

through capabilities Snake charts Interactive 3D-charts Interactive Rule-graphs with sliders for

visualizing multi-variable relations Frequency charts for categorical, integer,

or yes/no variables Lift and Gain charts for marketing

applications


Histograms and FrequenciesHistograms and Frequencies

Histogram displays distribution of numerical variables

Frequencies chart displays distribution of categorical and yes/no variables


2D charts and Rule-graphs2D charts and Rule-graphs

Sliders help visualize effects of other variables in more than two-dimensional models

The Find Laws model (red line) for a product market share dependence on the price predicts a dramatic change in the formula when the product goes on promotion


Snake-chartsSnake-charts

Quickly compare qualitatively several datasets on all their attributes

“Low”

“High” Compared data sets

All variables


Interactive 3D chartsInteractive 3D charts

You can use mouse to rotate the 3D-cube


PolyAnalystintegration features



Integration objectivesIntegration objectives

Use models to simply score data in various external databases

Deliver models to external applications in the format they understand - XML

Be able to analyze very large databases in their entirety

Integrate dedicated machine learning components in existing decision support systems


Applying models externallyApplying models externally

PolyAnalyst can readily apply predictive models directly to data in any external source through a standard OLE DB protocol

PolyAnalyst can export models to XML (PMML) format for their incorporation in external decision support applications


Analyzing large databasesAnalyzing large databases

In-Place Data Mining

Traditional Data Mining


PolyAnalyst COMPolyAnalyst COM

A kit of COM-based Data Mining components See DMReview magazine, January 2000, p. 42 and PCAI magazine, March 99, p. 16

Benefits Develop new applications quickly and effortlessly Incorporate third party components Choose best components from different vendors Extend functionality by adding new components Cross-platform applications Integration with most simple tools (Visual Basic)


PolyAnalyst COM PolyAnalyst COM (continued)(continued)

Offers individual machine learning engines Integration with external applications

Users see only the Users see only the familiar interface familiar interface enhanced by a few enhanced by a few new buttonsnew buttons

The main program The main program instructs instructs PolyAnalyst on PolyAnalyst on how to access the how to access the stored datastored data

Hard analytical work is Hard analytical work is performed by integrated performed by integrated PolyAnalyst machine PolyAnalyst machine learning components learning components behind the scenesbehind the scenes


PolyAnalyst platformsPolyAnalyst platforms

Standalone system:

PolyAnalyst - Windows 9x/NT/2000/XP

PolyAnalyst Pro - Windows NT/2000P/XP Pro

PolyAnalyst XL - Add-ins for MS Excel

Client/Server system:

PolyAnalyst Knowledge Server - Windows NT Client - Windows 9x/NT/2000 or OS/2


Customer quotes



Timothy NagleTimothy NagleConsulting ScientistConsulting Scientist3M Corporation3M CorporationSt. Paul, MN, USASt. Paul, MN, USA

“Analytical engines do an excellent job of finding relations amongst many fields without overfitting.”

PolyAnalyst supports medical PolyAnalyst supports medical projects at 3Mprojects at 3M


James FarkasJames FarkasSenior Navigation Senior Navigation EngineerEngineerThe Boeing CompanyThe Boeing CompanyKent, WA, USAKent, WA, USA

“PolyAnalyst provides quick and easy access for inexperienced users to powerful modeling tools.

PolyAnalyst helps improving flight PolyAnalyst helps improving flight control system at Boeingcontrol system at Boeing


Raymond Burke Raymond Burke E.W. Kelley Professor of BA E.W. Kelley Professor of BA Kelley Business School Kelley Business School Indiana UniversityIndiana UniversityBloomington, IN, USABloomington, IN, USA

“PolyAnalyst provides a unique and powerful set of tools for data mining applications, including promotion response analysis, customer segmentation and profiling, and cross-selling analysis.”

PolyAnalyst facilitates marketing PolyAnalyst facilitates marketing research at Indiana Universityresearch at Indiana University


PolyAnalyst helps medical research at PolyAnalyst helps medical research at the University of Wisconsin-Madisonthe University of Wisconsin-Madison

Prof. Roger L. BrownProf. Roger L. BrownDirector of RDSUDirector of RDSUUniversity of University of WisconsinWisconsinMadison, WI, USAMadison, WI, USA

“PolyAnalyst suite enabled our researchers to search their data for rules and structure while providing a symbolic knowledge of the structure, the detail they needed.”


PolyAnalyst provides efficient machine PolyAnalyst provides efficient machine learning algorithmslearning algorithms

Mario ApicellaMario ApicellaTechnology AnalystTechnology AnalystInfoWorld Test CenterInfoWorld Test Center

“PolyAnalyst focuses more effectively on data discovery than its competition.”


PolyAnalystfuture developments



Future developmentsFuture developments Further support for OLE DB for DM

Nested tables

New machine learning algorithms Time series analysis Kohonen maps

Enhanced data import and manipulation Visual development of workflow scripts New push-button vertical applications


PolyAnalyst -- WebAnalystPolyAnalyst -- WebAnalyst

PolyAnalyst supports support visual project development when used on top of a new Megaputer web-enabled enterprise server, WebAnalyst


PolyAnalyst evaluationPolyAnalyst evaluation

Download a FREE evaluation copy of PolyAnalyst from

www.megaputer.com

and enjoy using it hands-on following the provided step-by-step lessons, or exploring your own data.


Any Questions?Any Questions?Call Megaputer at(812) 330-0110

or [email protected]

120 W Seventh Street, Suite 310Bloomington, IN 47404 USA



Case 1:Case 1:Asea Skandia (Sweden)Asea Skandia (Sweden)


Asea Skandia Asea Skandia

Established 1907 Largest Swedish distributor of electrical equipment About 1,400 employees and a turnover of SEK 5.1

billion About ten thousand product names Not good at CRM and DB marketing yet Had only transactional data in a database


Groups of products offeredGroups of products offered

Home Appliances

90 Cookers, cooker fans, microwave ovens

91 Fridges/Chillers/Freezers

92 Washing machines, dishwashers, dryers

93 Sauna unit, fans

94 Small appliances

Lightning17 IR, RF and Bus control systems

19 Light reg.. timers, plugs, CCE-con., car heaters

70 Interior light fittings

72 Industrial light fittings

73 Emergency luminaires

74 Spotlights and downlights, lighting tracks

75 Decorative interior light fittings

77 Exterior light fittings

79 Accessories and spare parts

80 Fluorescent lamps and other discharge lamps

81 Incandescent filament and halogen lamps

82 Special lamps

Ventilation and sheet metal15 Fastening and fixings, protective equipment

16 Tools, implements, protective equipment & clothin

66 Ventilation

67 Sheet Metal for Buildings

Telecommunications48 Low current cable

49 Data and optical fiber cable

50 Network material

51 Local data networks

52 Power Supply

53 Signalling equipment

55 Distress signal systems

57 Telephony

58 Internal communication systems

60 Aerial equipment

62 Sound and time distribution systems

63 Safety and Security Systems

64 Service Alarm Systems

Electrical Equipment1 Power and control cables

2 Electrical installation, wiring and flexible cable

6 Material kits, cable protection, lightning equipment

7 Terminations, joints, cabinets and electrical tape

8 Contact crimping

9 Electric meters

11 Cable ladders, trays, trunking, cable trolleys

14 Conduit, boxes, glands, fire protection

15 Fastening and fixings, protective equipment

16 Tools, implements, protective equipment & clothin

18 Switch systems

20 Fuses with accessories

21 Miniature circuit breaker systems

22 Distribution board systems IP20-IP43

23 Distribution board systems IP43-IP65

25 Equipment boxes, equipment cabinets

26 Distribution board accessories

28 Switchgear components, capacitors, busbar trunking

29 Connection terminals and marking materials

31 Motor, safety, load and MCCB breakers

32 Contactors and starters

35 Motors

37 Push switches

38 Sensors, monitors and regulators

40 Relays, time relays

42 Metering instruments

43 Spare parts for consumer goods

45 Programmable control system

85 Radiators and thermostats

87 Fan heaters

88 Water heaters and electric boilers

89 Heating cable


(continued)(continued)

Predicting cross-sell opportunities was possible Closer cooperation with the client was necessary Megaputer teamed with Cambridge Technology Partners (Sweden) Data was disguised prior to the analysis

Asea SkandiaAsea SkandiaAsea SkandiaAsea Skandia CTPCTPCTPCTP MegaputerMegaputerMegaputerMegaputer

Determined business Determined business potential of the datapotential of the data

Developed data Developed data exploration strategyexploration strategy

Carried out Market Basket Carried out Market Basket AnalysisAnalysis

Provided actionable Provided actionable results to CTPresults to CTP

Identified most suitable solution provider

Worked with the client

Collected available dataCollected available data

Aggregated data in Aggregated data in product categoriesproduct categories

Presented Megaputer Presented Megaputer results to the clientresults to the client

Identified new opportunity

Hired a consultant

Helped aggregating Helped aggregating products in groupsproducts in groups

Incorporated results in Incorporated results in marketing activitiesmarketing activities


PolyAnalyst MBAPolyAnalyst MBA

Works 10-50 times faster than traditional Easily finds many-to-one rules

“I would like to continue working together with I would like to continue working together with

Megaputer on other CTP customers’ projects Megaputer on other CTP customers’ projects (mainly Swedish and Danish Banks ).(mainly Swedish and Danish Banks ).”

-- Olof GoranssonSenior Data ConsultantCTP Skandinavien AB

© 2002 Megaputer intelligence, Inc. Mining data with PolyAnalyst Your Knowledge Partner TM .

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