АСТАНА - июль 2 0 0 9 г. THE KAZSTEM MACROECONOMICAL FORECASTING MODEL OF KAZAKHSTAN Aidarkhanova Bibigul REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN JSC “Economic Research Institute” Center for macroeconomical analysis and forecasting Department of Short-term Forecasting
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АСТАНА - июль 2 0 0 9 г. THE KAZSTEM MACROECONOMICAL FORECASTING MODEL OF KAZAKHSTAN Aidarkhanova Bibigul REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN JSC “Economic Research.
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АСТАНА - июль 2 0 0 9 г.
THE KAZSTEM MACROECONOMICAL FORECASTING MODEL OF KAZAKHSTAN
Aidarkhanova Bibigul
REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
JSC “Economic Research Institute” Center for macroeconomical analysis and
forecasting Department of Short-term Forecasting
The content of the presentationThe content of the presentation
I. The main macroeconomical indicators and the influence of the world financial crisis to the economy of Kazakhstan
II. The state planning and forecasting system in Kazakhstan
III. The Kazakhstan KazSTEM short-term and medium-term forecasting macroeconomical model in the econometric G7 package
IV. The forecasting blocks of the model and the forecasts of the main macroeconomical indicators of Kazakhstan for 2010-2014
V. “The short-term quarterly based forecast of the macroeconomical indicators of Kazakhstan for 2009” quarterly bulletin
VI. III Astana Economic Forum
I. The Dynamics of GDP of the Kazakhstan 2000-2008
2 59
9.9
3 25
0.6
3 77
6.3
4 61
2.0
5 87
0.1 7 59
0.6
10 2
13.7 12
849
.8
15 9
36.5
109.8
113.5
109.8 109.3 109.6110.7
108.9
103.3
117.4
110.2
105.9
111.7
116.1117.9
121.5
115.5
120.0
109.7
0.0
2 000.0
4 000.0
6 000.0
8 000.0
10 000.0
12 000.0
14 000.0
16 000.0
18 000.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
GDP, bln. tenge Real growth, % Deflator, %
As it is clear from this figure, main current account components of the previous year except for the trade balance, show negative dynamics.
Significant improvement of balance of current operations in 2008 was guarantied by export growth and surge in oil price. Taking into account that oil prices sharply declined, the current account in 2009 is expected to be negative (prognosis was done on basis of scenarios of $50 per barrel of Brent). Devaluation of tenge should promote some improvement of current account deficit.
I. The current account of the Kazakhstan
*
* 2009 - forecast by the ERI
financial activity
(monetary intermediation)
32,2%
geological survey and
search23,6%
civil engineering
5,0%manufacturing
5,0%
retail trade5,0%
crude oil and gas extraction
12,9%
other industries
16,3%
The analysis of the foreign investment structure in Kazakhstan shows that the most attractive sectors are: financial activity (monetary intermediation) – 32.2% of total foreign investment (FDI and portfolio), geological survey and search – 23.6%, crude oil and gas extraction – 12.9%, manufacturing, civil engineering, retail trade – 5% each.
The analysis of the foreign investment structure in Kazakhstan shows that the most attractive sectors are: financial activity (monetary intermediation) – 32.2% of total foreign investment (FDI and portfolio), geological survey and search – 23.6%, crude oil and gas extraction – 12.9%, manufacturing, civil engineering, retail trade – 5% each.
Foreign investment inclined primarily to the oil&gas sectorI. Foreign investment inclined primarily to the oil & gas sector
II. The state planning and forecasting system in Kazakhstan
A state planning system of the Republic of Kazakhstan
A strategic plan of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 10 years. A forecasting schedule of the territory development of the country
A development strategy of Kazakhstan for 2030
State programs for 5-10 years
A forecast of social-economic development for 5 years
Territory development programs for 5 years
Strategic plans of the authorities for 5 years
Development strategies for 10 years and development plans of the national managing holdings, national holdings, national companies with state share in nominal capital
Industry programs
Republic (local) budget for 3 years
III. Macroeconomic forecasting model KazSTEM
*
KazSTEM macroeconomic model was designed by ERI to Kazakhstan’s economy
KazSTEM macroeconomic forecasting model is based on the econometric regressions stemming in the econometric G7 application
The model is the quarterly macroeconomic econometric model depicting the interrelations of basis macroeconomic indicators in Kazakhstan
Statistical base is constantly updated as data from official sources such as RK Statistics Agency, National Bank of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning, other ministries’ web sites are available.
The model is designed to create forecast calculations for the short- and medium-term perspectives
Scenario variants of the forecasts depend on the changes in exogenous variables.
III. Modules of the forecasting model KazSTEMIII. Modules of the forecasting model KazSTEM
*
Currently, the following forecasting modules are developed under the macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan:
GDP by production
GDP by consumption Monetary
relations module
Macroeconomic forecasting model of Kazakhstan in the G7 econometrical package
Fiscal relations module
Social relations
Balance of Payments
GDP by revenues
IV. Forecast of GDP by production IV. Forecast of GDP by production Base, optimistic, pessimistic scenariosBase, optimistic, pessimistic scenarios
Theme: «Crisis Lessons and Post-Crisis Model of Economic Development in Globalization Conditions».
The work of the Forum will be focused on the following themes:
Anti-crisis governmental regulations of economy and the new models of post crisis development. Formation and development of innovative economy. Formation of new world financial architecture. Increasing competitiveness of countries. Development of public private partnerships under globalization.
The Award for the Best Research in the Field of Economics will be organized. Internet-forum will be held at the web-site www.economyclub.info with the aim to unite the efforts of scientists-economists from all over the world for working-out of a post - crisis model of economic development in conditions of globalization during the period of July 1, 2009 - May 1, 2010.
The leading scientific research institutes, centers, international organizations, and scientists, politicians and representatives of the business community are invited to take part in the work of the