- 1 - EMCDDA Conference: EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' effective drug policy' 'What is happening to heroin? 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in Methodological challenges in understanding understanding trends in heroin production and supply‘ trends in heroin production and supply‘ By By Dr. Thomas Pietschmann Dr. Thomas Pietschmann Policy Analysis and Research Branch Policy Analysis and Research Branch UNODC UNODC Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009 Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009
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EMCDDA Conference: EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy'
'What is happening to heroin? 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in understanding Methodological challenges in understanding
trends in heroin production and supply‘trends in heroin production and supply‘
ByByDr. Thomas Pietschmann Dr. Thomas Pietschmann
Policy Analysis and Research BranchPolicy Analysis and Research BranchUNODCUNODC
Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009
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28,500
160,000
130,300
27,70021,50032,800
29,625
26,837
1,5002,500
157,000
63,674
104,000
165,000
193,000
50,800 201,000
142,100
281,600
235,700
151,500
237,800
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Hec
tare
s
Myanmar Lao PDR Afghanistan Rest of the world Total Trend
Global opium poppy cultivation, 1990-2008
Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008 and UNODC Surveys .
-15%*
* Preliminary estimates
Comparisons:Comparisons: Greater London: 157,900 ha Greater London: 157,900 ha New York City: 95,300 ha New York City: 95,300 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Vienna: 41,500 haVienna: 41,500 haLisbon: City: 8,480 ha Lisbon: City: 8,480 ha Metro: Metro: 295,740 ha 295,740 ha
Mauritius: Mauritius: 204,000 ha 204,000 haComoros: 186,200 haComoros: 186,200 haHong Kong: 109,500 haHong Kong: 109,500 haBahrain: Bahrain: 71,600 ha 71,600 haMalta: 31,600 haMalta: 31,600 ha
Low density area in Mihtarlam district, Laghman Province (4 m resolution satellite image IKONOS)
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OPIUM SURVEYOPIUM SURVEYSatellite surveySatellite survey: : • 21 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of 3421 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of 34• 118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images• Very high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolutionVery high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolution
Village surveyVillage survey::• All 34 provinces coveredAll 34 provinces covered• 134 local field surveyors134 local field surveyors• 1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages)1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages)• 1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic)1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic)• Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite imagery imagery
ERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEYERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEY::• All 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication coveredAll 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication covered• 131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators
Survey methodology (2008)
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Sampling frame and selected cells for satellite survey, 2008Sampling frame Sampling frame (arable land): (arable land):
based on Landsat-7 based on Landsat-7 images (2002/03) and images (2002/03) and Landsat-7 EMT 2006 Landsat-7 EMT 2006
Coverage: Coverage:
7% of arable land in 21 provinces7% of arable land in 21 provinces
Heroin/morphine seizures in 2007 along main trafficking routes to Europe
2,142.1
13,863
25,580
13,397
3,3303,485 7,677
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
'Balkan route' Northern (Silk)Route)
West and CentralEurope
kilo
gram
s
West and CentralEurope
East Europe (otherC.I.S.)
Central Asia
Other South-EastEurope
Turkey
Iran
Pakistan
Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan opiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countriesopiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countries
79%79%
10%10% 11%11%
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Heroin and morphine seizures in West and Central Europe and along the extended ‘Balkan route’, 1995-2007
Central Asia Russian Federation Other East Europe (C.I.S.) Trend
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Additional information requirements:• More systematic and detailed information on transformation ratios of
opium to morphine and heroin (improved cooperation with Afghan authorities, DEA, and international coalition forces in Afghanistan);
• Better information on stocks and on trafficking flows (UNODC in cooperation with national authorities);
• Systematic price and purity monitoring in countries around Afghanistan (Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia) – planned to be done under the auspices of UNODC;
• Systematic price and purity monitoring along main trafficking routes to Europe (Turkey, Balkan countries, key EU consumer countries) – to be undertaken by EMCDDA in cooperation with UNODC?
• Improvements of Member States (including European Member States) reporting of individual drug seizures (as required under the international drug conventions) and sharing of strategic intelligence information ; (cooperation with WCO and Interpol as well as with Europol/EMCDDA);
• Updated information on extent of heroin use and on per capita consumption in consumer countries (current cooperation between UNODC and the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research – to be extended to EMCDDA?)