Workforce Planning to Enable Explosive, Out-of-the-box Growth
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DEVELOPING A WORKFORCE PLAN TO ENABLE EXPLOSIVE,
OUT OF THE BOX GROWTH
ERE Expo September 11, 2009
© Dr. John Sullivan Advisor to Management, Author and Professor
www.drjohnsullivan.com
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Dr. John Sullivan’s summary bio
Former Chief Talent Officer of Agilent Technologies, the HP spinoff with 43,000 employees
Has advised over 250 major organizations in 30 different countries. His appeal is so broad, that work has been translated into 23 languages
Monthly column in Workforce Management Magazine Columnist for the Electronic Recruiting Daily Author of eight books and more than 750 articles. SHRM called him “One of the industries most respected strategists” & the Best
Practice Institute honored him as one of the Top 10 Leading Thinkers in HR Staffing.org noted that he was “the father of HR Metrics” and Fast Company
magazine called him the “Michael Jordan of hiring” He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Fortune, the NY Times, the
Financial Times, CFO Magazine and have been interviewed by CNN and the CBS and ABC nightly news
Currently he is a Professor of Management at San Francisco State University and the chief consultant of the management advisory firm DJS
Dr. Sullivan’s current books
On-boarding HR Strategy Productivity Metrics
Recruiting Employee referrals Employer Branding Recruiting tools
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The basic premise for today is…
basic premise Can we agree that the turnaround in recruiting is coming…
And even though we do not know precisely when
It’s still a wise move to develop a plan that
enables you to take the appropriate actions…
Before the turnaround occurs
And right when the turnaround starts
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Plan “B” is…
basic premise Do nothing and spend your time bemoaning the fact that you have no budget
Looking unprepared and being overwhelmed when the turnaround does occur
Producing poor or mediocre results because you waited too late to develop a plan and a strategy
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Topics for today
1. A definition of workforce planning
2. Common errors made during a downturn
3. The 4 phases of a turnaround plan
4. Benchmark firms to model after
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A definition of
“Competitive advantage” workforce planning
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Competitive advantage workforce planning defined
An integrated… forward looking plan… designed to predict (what, when, how much)… and then cause action. In order to mitigate people problems… and take advantage of opportunities to improve the “talent pipeline”… so that you have the needed “people capabilities”… to meet business goals… and to build a competitive advantage!
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Part 1
Common Talent Management errors
made during a downturn
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Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid
basic premise The mistakes organization’s have made: This major accounting firm eliminated the
majority of their recruiting staff because recruiting now will be so easy, it will be like “shooting fish in a barrel”
This biotech firm dropped it’s most senior recruiters and only retained the “cheap ones”, because recruiting is merely a transaction
This government froze all hiring (right when the best talent was available) and furloughed all, even in revenue-generating positions >
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Firms have… Furloughed and laid off in such a public way that it
may have damaged their employer brand Reverted back to arrogant, customer damaging
“candidate abuse” and “death by interview” Assumed they could continue to utilize the old
tools… (job boards, ads, static corporate pages) while ignoring mobile phones, texting, social networks, rec. videos, blogs, podcasts, remote video interviews, contests, talent communities etc.
Been overly optimistic in workforce planning
Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid
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Part 2
The four distinct phases of a turnaround plan
Note: where you the various actions in the phases
varies with the firm/ situation
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Phase 1 Creating a turnaround plan
Phase 2 Actions immediately before the turnaround
Phase 3 Actions during the first three months of the turnaround
Phase 4
The four phases of a turnaround plan
Ongoing operations
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Phase 1
Creating the turnaround plan
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Work with the CFO/ COO They are the undisputed kings of metrics and
budgets
Make the business case showing the impact on their favorite business areas and their key project approval criteria two examples >
Action steps in creating your plan
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These factors indicate business impact to a CFO
Use the CFO’s favorite words in your bus. case Increased revenue/ profit/ higher margins Higher productivity Higher customer retention / satisfaction rates Increased market share A stronger brand Higher stock price A higher rate of product innovation
If you don’t directly impact these, forget it!
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Top 10 CFO project approval factors
The top factors that get marketing & finance proposals funded: 1. High ROI and other business impacts
3. Low initial investment 4. High success rate/ low risk of failure 5. Immediate start up 6. Short payback period 7. It uses accurate results metrics and counting 8. No new headcount is required (Or it is reduced) 9. “Consequences of failure” is built in 10. A competitive advantage is created 11. Increased productivity (Profit per people dollar)
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Additional action steps for creating your
turnaround plan
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Forecast when the turnaround will begin Forecast a range not a single date Ask the CFO for their projected dates` Look for “leading indicator firms” from previous
turnarounds Look for “external economic indicators” from
previous turnarounds (Housing sales, interest rates, consumer spending, an employment rate etc.
Identify previous internal precursors or warning signs >
Action steps in creating your plan
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Precursors indicating you have a surplus of labor
Internal precursors of a turnaround in hiring Increase in revenue or forecasted orders Increase in hours for workers or OT Unfreezing raises and/ or promotions Travel budgets are unfrozen Contingent hiring increases Key SBU budgets are increased Others? Releasing the freeze on hiring comes next
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Forecast hiring volume needs Find the expected corporate revenue growth rate
Use the ideal revenue per employee ratio to predict headcount
Forecast the available volume of internal talent (Reduced by projected turnover and retirements)
Develop a “yield model” or funnel (MS, Cisco)
Action steps in creating your plan
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Consider developing remote work jobs
To expand the available talent pool
To increase productivity and cut costs (Best Buy)
Action steps in creating your plan
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Forecast the type of talent needed Identify the positions with projected retirements
or turnover
Identify growth regions Identify rapid growth business units Identify time-to-market requirements
Identify skill requirements Identify the needed innovation rates
Action steps in creating your plan
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Prioritize your customers for recruiting/retention Revenue generating and revenue impact jobs Mission-critical jobs Key business units Key regions Key leaders/managers Retention - “High risk of leaving” individuals Retention - Individuals with “key future skills” Retention – Top performers, game changers and
innovators
Action steps in creating your plan
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Any questions at this point
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Phase 2
Actions to take immediately before (30-90 days)
the turnaround begins
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Develop a turnaround timetable Develop a detailed timeline with milestones.
Ensure that all possible actions and their owners are on the timeline and in the turnaround plan
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Conduct a competitive analysis
Analyze your "talent competitors" and their growth plans from the last downturn
Forecast when they are likely to ramp up hiring
Forecast which jobs they are likely to initially focus on
Identify what tools they are likely to use… so that you can counter them with more effective tools
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Begin building a “talent pool” Pre-identify and begin to build relationships with the 100 “most wanted” game changers in your industry (EA, MS) Revisit offer turndowns, semifinalists and “almost qualified” former candidates Approach corporate alumni /boomerangs to gauge their interest in returning
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Identify recruiting resources that utilize “other people’s time” Re-energize your employee referral program (Add exec referrals, college referrals, social network referrals and e-referral cards) Encourage attendees and speakers at professional events to bring back “three great names” Encourage and educate your employee social network users how to attract potential candidates
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Begin re-building your “employer brand” image Assess whether candidate “job acceptance criteria” have changed Assess your brand negatives online (Google alerts) and among university students (Universum) Remember your employer brand is now determined by others (MS), so use the media, social networks, Twitter etc. to have “others” spread the word about your differentiated “well-managed” and “best place to work” factors
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Assess new sourcing tools and strategies Select from among the new generation of
recruiting strategies Referrals and direct sourcing are top Utilize your own top performing employees to
identify their most utilized communications channels using a “how would we find you again” process/survey
Utilize sampling methods and metrics to identify the tools that actually generate the highest quality candidates, quality of hire and ROI
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Assess your web site Be authentic (Test your credibility)
Allow customized messages
Video’s are powerful
Their power is diminishing vs. Glassdoor.com etc.
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Upgrade internal movement tools Identify IM problems, barriers and roadblocks
Improve the availability of information about “where best to move” internally for increased pay, promotion, job security etc.
Consider utilizing recruiters to proactively internally move “overdue” employees (Microsoft, Booz Allen)
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Upgrade reference checking processes Assess whether lying and misrepresentation
rates have increased significantly
Be aware of identity theft (I’m not really that person)
Be aware of the “nurse of the year”
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Consider re-assessing your ATS situation Be aware of lower-cost options
Be aware of CRM options
Be aware of vendor reliability
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Develop effective WP /recruiting metrics Accuracy of forecasts Number of vacancy days for key positions On-the-job performance of new-hires Retention rate of top-performing new-hires Performance turnover Diversity rates in professional positions Percentage of internal leadership vacancies filled by individuals on the succession plan Convert all metrics to dollars of revenue impact
Steps just before the turnaround begins
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Begin hiring new recruiters Develop new assessment tools to determine
whether recruiters can utilize next-generation tools Pre-identify and build relationships with the
best
Note: Only do select hiring of recruiters before the turnaround actually begins
Then, hire a percentage as contract recruiters in case this turnaround is a “false start”
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Cherry pick “soon to be recruited” talent Estimate job areas where your competitors will
initially begin recruiting Use competitive intelligence and visit the
corporate site/job boards to estimate when competition for talent will increase
Consider a talent SWAP program (Slide)
“Pull the trigger” and hire all you can afford
before the competition starts
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
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Phase 3
Actions immediately after the turnaround begins
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Fortify retention efforts Assume turnover rates will double (Generational turnover)
Consider a “mass-personalized” retention strategy (vs. a peanut butter strategy)
Ask key employees “why they stay” “Re-recruit” key employees Consider post-exit interviews Consider dumping bad-managers
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
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Fortify retirement efforts Assume retirement rates will change
dramatically based on stock valuations and healthcare options (Leadership gap)
Influence key employees to stay longer
Accurately predict who is likely to retire
Consider part time “after retirement” work
Develop “remote work” options as an alternative
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
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Improved candidate closing tools Assume that your image may be damaged
Assume that candidates have changed their
acceptance criteria
During on-boarding ask “what worked” and
“what didn’t”
Determine how housing issues will impact the
potential relocations
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
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Re-energize and re-educate hiring managers Assume that their skills are rusty and their
approaches are outdated
Make the business case to individual managers that it is worth the time to invest in recruiting
Utilize internal social networks and wiki’s to educate hiring managers
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
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Anticipate potential recruiting problems Make a list of anticipated recruiting “growing pains” based on the last recession Utilize “if – then scenarios” to “test” to see if your team is ready for all high probability problems and opportunities Consider offering “talent opportunity” alerts Consider technology/ labor alternatives
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
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Part 3
And finally… benchmark firms to study
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Benchmark firms include: Capital one – virtual if – then simulations, variable
timeframe with SBU, 20 person team Microsoft – three-year recruiting funding window Google – statistical algorithm for forecasting who
will quit Booz Allen – speeding up internal movement and
rotations WellPoint – external candidates as part of their
succession plan
Best practice examples in workforce planning
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Benchmark firms include: KTL Tencor – the whole business stops for a
month to plan, with quarterly revision Intel (people roadmap) Orcaeyes – a new generation of predictive
software City of Sunnyvale (Ca) - utilizes five-year
workforce planning model
Best practice examples in workforce planning
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Note
I have a 244 page e-book
THE WORKFORCE PLANNING HANDBOOK
It is available for free for evaluation purposes.
JohnS@sfsu.edu
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Did I make you think?
How about some more questions ?
www.drjohnsullivan.com
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