Winter Range Studies of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd...2011/10/07  · Winter Range Studies of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd Kyle Joly National Park Service Wildlife Biologist,

Winter Range Studies of the Western Arctic

Caribou Herd

Kyle Joly

National Park Service

Wildlife Biologist, Gates of the Arctic National Park & Preserve

Caribou Monitoring Lead, Arctic Network Inventory & Monitoring Program

Funding

NPS – Gates, ARCN

BLM – Central Yukon

FWS – Selawik NWR

Acknowledgements Paul Duffy and Scott Rupp

Photo: R. Jandt

Background

• Historic Debates • Fire destroys lichens

• Caribou can just find new range

• Centered on boreal forests

• Preliminary Alaska Work • Nelchina Caribou Herd

• Western Arctic Herd

• Current Efforts

WAH

Background

Information

• Wide Ranging

• ~ 40 Villages

• 15,000 Harvested Annually

• ~ 97 % Subsistence Use

• 348,000 (in 2009)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

WAH Herd Size

Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra

• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning

Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra

• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning

• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH

• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga

Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra

• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning

• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH

• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga

• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots

• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations

• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar

• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

All models are wrong,

but some are useful. -George Box

Reality is just a single replicate. - Tony Starfield

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Goals

Quantify effects of climate change scenarios on:

• Fire regime of northwest Alaska

• Extent of caribou winter range

• Extent of quality moose habitat

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSytem Code)

• State-transition type vegetation succession model

• Deciduous a successional state of spruce

• Tundra stays tundra after disturbance (fire)

• Focuses on system interactions and feedbacks

• 1 km2 pixels, 1 year time steps

• Pixels randomly “ignited”

• Fire “spread” a function of climate and vegetation state

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Individual

Pixel

Flammability

Probability

of

Burning

Vegetation Type

Stand Age Climate

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time Since Fire (Years)

Fla

mm

ab

ilit

y

Boreal

Tundra

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

SNAP

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Empirical

Simulated

Are

a B

urn

ed (

km

2)

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Empirical

Rep_44

• A

rea

Burn

ed (

km

2)

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Cum

ula

tive

Are

a B

urn

ed (

km

2)

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Max. Fire Size (km2)

Fre

quen

cy

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

200 250 300 350 400 450

Tundra Area Burned (km2)

Fre

quen

cy

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Historic

CGCM31

ECHAM5

Year

Are

a of

Tundra

Burn

ed (

km

2)

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

2010 Fire Season

• 37 fires in Noatak Preserve (most ever)

• 3 Re-burns just in Noatak

• # 3 all-time fire year in northwest area Parks

• Barrow Aug temps 2 C (4 F) above average

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

260000

280000

300000

320000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Historic

CGCM31

ECHAM5

Year

Are

a (k

m2)

Caribou Winter Range

> 50 yrs old

ENTIRE Study Area

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

30000

40000

50000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Historic

CGCM31

ECHAM5

Year

Are

a (k

m2)

Caribou Winter Range

> 50 yrs old

CORE

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Potential Impacts

Of Less Winter Range

• Range shifts

• Increased competition

• Increased dispersal

• Reduced nutritional condition

• Reduced reproductive output

• Smaller group and herd sizes

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

1000

3000

5000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Historic

CGCM31

ECHAM5

Year

Are

a (k

m2)

Moose Habitat

10-30 yrs old

CORE

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range

Part 3: Habitat selection in relation to lichens, wildfires, grazing and landscape

Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra

• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning

• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH

• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga

• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots

• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations

• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar

• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them

• Simulations forecast more fires

• Less quality caribou winter range

• Conservative forecasts

• Climate-induced impacts increase moose habitat

Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra

• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning

• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH

• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga

• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots

• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations

• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar

• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them

• Simulations forecast more fires

• Less quality caribou winter range

• Conservative forecasts

• Climate-induced impacts increase moose habitat

• Forage, fire and predation part of winter range story

• Winter range is just one piece of the puzzle

Preliminary Fire Management Plan

Prior to Fire Plan

• TEK and AFS input required

• Consider more than caribou

Preliminary Fire Management Plan

• Maintain 296-year fire cycle

• 3-Year Moving Average of Area Burned

• Stand Age ~ Lichen abundance

• Protect large areas > 30 years old

• Resource Advisor Galena Zone Fires

Questions ?

Kyle_Joly@nps.gov