Transcript
Wind Turbines Sector
Analysts :
Hanya BELRHITI : SuzlonEmine DRISS : Gamesa
Youssouf HARRAKI : NordexDylan SOALHAT : Vestas
Lara VILLEUNEUVE : Goldwind
Financial AnalysisSKEMA Business School Paris
2012-2013
Share Price Evolution 2008-2013
Sources : Yahoo Finance, Reuters.com
-94,10%
-94,46 %
-92,58 %
-69,45 %
-86,01 %
Wind Energy VS Gas
Source : US Energy Information Administration
Carbon Price History
Sector Production Overcapacity
Source : Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Governments Involvement
• Production Tax Credit (USA)
• Offshore wind farms development in Europe : €3.5 Bn worth
• China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) stated an installation target for wind of 18GW in 2013
Market share Repartition
Sources : Companies Annual Report 2012, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)
BUY
Share Price Evolution (DKK)
EUR Million 31.12.2011 31.12.2012
Revenue 5 836 7 216(+23.6%)
EBITDA 305 299
EBITDA Margin 5.2% 4.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (343) (469)
EBIT (60) (697)
EBIT Margin (1.0%) (9.7%)
Net Income (166) (963)
Key Financial Data
Outlook 2013
Forecasts
EUR Million 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue 7 216 5 500 6 500 7000
EBITDA 299 330 600 700
EBITDA Margin 4.1% 6% 9.23% 10%
Depreciation & Amortization
(469) (350) (350) (350)
EBIT (697) (20) 250 350
EBIT Margin (9.7%) (0.3%) 3.4% 5%
Net Income (963) (90) 250 300
Recommendation: Buy
Nordex Share price Evolution from 2008 to 2013
Source: www. Reuters.com
EUR Million 31.12.2011 31.12.2012
Revenue 921 1043(+13.2%)
EBITDA -2 -34
EBITDA Margin -0.2% -3.3%
Depreciation & Amortization -28 -29
EBIT -30 -63
EBIT Margin -3.3% -6%
Net Income -48 -59
Financial Statement Overview
Nordex Forecats for 2013-2014
EUR Million 2012 2013 2014
Revenue 1043 1077(+3.3%)
1140(+5.8%)
EBITDA -34 61 69
EBITDA Margin -3.3% 5.6% 6%
Depreciation & Amortization -29 -29 -27
EBIT -63 31 42
EBIT Margin -6% 2.9% 3.7%
Net Income -59 12 17
Forecasts’ Explanation
• Nordex announced 1.27 bn of new orders in 2012 vs 1.11 bn of new orders in 2011 (+14%).
• Half of these new orders were registered in the last quarter of 2012: 628 M € of Order Intake in Q4 of 2012.
• Increase of U.S. and Chinese orders, areas where Nordex’s market share is low.
• Net cash at the end of 2012 is 50 M € vs 19 M € in 2011, a difference due to the strong positive Cash Flow in Q4 of 2012 resulting from the increase of new orders in the last quarter of 2012.
These facts explains the positive forecasts for 2013 and 2014.
CURRENT PRICE: INR 13.69TARGET PRICE: INR 9RECOMMENDATION: SELL
Suzlon Share Price Evolutionsince 2008
Source: www.reuters.com
Suzlon Financial OverviewINR Million 31.03.2011 31.03.2012
Revenue 178 791 210 824(+17,91%)
EBITDA 10 472 18 212
EBITDA Margin 5,85% 8,64%
Depreciation & Amortization (6 574) (6 612)
Operating Profit/EBIT 3 898 11 600
EBIT Margin 2,18% 5,50%
Net Loss (13 239) (4 785)
Suzlon Forecats: 2013/2015
INR Million 31.03.2013 31.03.2014 31.03.2015
Revenue 191 000(-9,4%)
273 000 295 000
EBITDA (10 000) 23 000 29 000
Operational Margin - 5,23%* 8,42% 9,83%
Depreciation & Amortization (7400) (7400) (7400)
Operating Profit/EBIT (17 000) 15 000 22 000
EBIT Margin - 8,9% 5,49% 7,45%
Net Loss (38 000) (3 000) 3 000
*dilution effect
Suzlon Overview
Significant equity dilution due to Corporate Debt Restructuring terms (CDR)
More dilution likely from FCCB (foreign currency convertible bonds) restructuring
Risk to USD650m forex loan repayments Forecasts are below consensus
Recommandation : BUYTarget Price : 3,5 €Actual Price : 2,38 €
Evolution of Stock price 2008-2013
Source : Reuters.com
Key figures 2011-2012EUR million 2011 2012
Revenue 3033 2844
EBITDA 598 453
EBITDA Margin 19,3% 17,7%
Depreciation and Amortization - -
EBIT 131 (-631)
EBIT margin 4,32% -22,18%
Net Income 51 (-659)
Source : Gamesa Annual Reports
Restructuration Plan
• Financial deleveraging : Reduction of Net working capital in Wind Turbines and Wind Farms.
• Reduction in personal : 1215 employees.• Closure of facilities : 24 facilities.• Reduction of R&D.
ForecastsEUR million 2013 2014 2015
Revenues 2000 2400 2700
EBITDA 350 420 472,5
EBITDA margin 17,5 % 17,5 % 17,5 %
EBIT 80 144 216
EBIT margin 4 % 6 % 8 %
Net Income 32 57,6 86,4
Key figures
• Over 15 years experience in the wind industry
• Over 13 GW of power installed worldwide in June 2012
• Over 11,000 windturbines installed worldwide in June 2012
• Over €1,6 bn revenue in 2011
• Two public listed stock exchange (Shenzen and Hong Kong)
• Second largest wind turbines provider worldwide in 2011 (1st in China)
Market shares
Source: Goldwind Investors Relations
Profits : For a long term growth
Source: Goldwind Investors Relations
International Activities
Research and Development
Products
Projections
201313 202 482
201415 378 766
201516 874 898
YearExpected Turnover Expected Net Profit
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